Post election observations

[mendeleyev]

From the Mendeleyev Journal:


Billed as a voluntary resignation, Volgograd region governor Anatoly Brovko didn't even have time to change his nameplate on the Oblast website, his "voluntary" demise so sudden. No announcement was made locally of his resignation but this morning the Volgograd Oblast administration introduced a photo of Brovko's replacement with the headline of Сергей Боженов: «Объединить усилия в интересах региона» ("Sergei Bozhenov: Joins forces to benefit the region").

Bozhenov was named by President Medvedev as Brovko's replacement, temporary at least for now. (http://www.volganet.ru/news/news/2012/01/news_00545.html)



(Recently dismissed Volgograd region Governor Anatoly Brovko.)

Hmm, wasn't in just back in February 2009 that Governor Brovko was included in Medvedev's "First 100" of Russia's "High Potential Management Personnel" list? True, but that was was before the December 2011 Duma elections in which all hell broke lose in Volgograd as many citizens decided that United Russia wasn't the only viable option for governing Russia.


The Kremlin was quick to make it clear that Brovko's efforts for United Russia in the election had underperformed for the region. The national average in the contested election was 49% for United Russia in most regions while the Volgograd Oblast managed only 36%. Authorities promptly ordered a recount but even then a new total of 42% still lagged behind other parts of the country.

[mendeleyev]

Powered by today's Mendeleyev Journal--

This installment is one of a series of questions from Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's meeting with journalism students at Moscow State University this past Wednesday, 25 January 2012.

(Excerpts from transcript of meeting with students at Lomonosov Moscow State University's Faculty of Journalism)


(Russian president Dmitry Medvedev visited Moscow Statue University Journalism students, Wednesday, 25 Jan 2012.)

PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA DMITRY MEDVEDEV: I congratulate all of our students most sincerely on St Tatiana’s Day – the day that students all around Russia, including at Moscow State University of course, celebrate as Students Day. Today is a special day.

Seeing as my last visit to you raised some mixed emotions, I thought it proper to come here again and congratulate you on St Tatiana’s Day and at the same time give you the chance to ask your various questions.

But before giving you the floor for questions, let me just say a few words first about the profession that you have chosen to study for. Journalism is certainly a very interesting profession. If I were younger now and decided to go and study, I am not sure whether I would enter the law faculty or some other faculty, but I certainly have no doubt that you have chosen a very interesting future profession. I say this not for the sake of compliment, not to try to please and tell you how wonderful or otherwise you all are. I started to develop a real interest in journalism when the new media started to emerge. Of course, I read and watched the traditional media, and still do, but the internet era has brought great change not just to the mass media environment but to life in general.

I say this because aside from the questions on our political and economic life, our country’s future, our various state institutions, and quite simply all of the various problems and interesting issues I am sure you will raise,

I’d very much like us to talk, too, about the development of mass media. I am a lawyer, as you know, and though I do not overestimate the importance of laws and the legislative environment, I still think much depends on them nonetheless, and I think that the law on the mass media currently in force has turned out to be a remarkable success. It sometimes gets reproached with being too idealistic and never changing. But the thing is, when a particular law does not change over the course of decades it is a sign that it actually works quite well. Usually, whenever proposed new amendments to the law on mass media get brought to me, I ask the media community what it thinks and the answer is always that it is better to leave things as they are. I would be interested to hear your views on whether or not we should make any changes to the law on mass media.

The other subject I would like to discuss with you is the development of the new media. They are the subject of much discussion now, but at the same time, we see that they lack a solid foundation on which to base their work. This is a problem all around the world. So, if you want to discuss this question too, I think this would be useful, not just for today’s discussion, but for the future too. This is because the kind of legal regulation we might eventually develop will play a big part in shaping your future work and have a big effect quite simply on the atmosphere in our country, its democratic spirit, and on the situation today and tomorrow.

Now let’s talk and let you put the questions you perhaps did not get the chance to ask last time.

QUESTION: My name is Vladimir Kulikov. I am a student in the department of television.
I am greatly saddened by everything currently happening in Russian journalism and television. I am even more saddened by everything happening in our nation. To be honest, for the past three years, I have been seriously considering moving to another country. I am very concerned by this.

In your interviews, you frequently talk about responsibility, personal responsibility, how you make certain decisions and feel that you will get feedback from millions of people. I would be interested to know the following. Right now, a very serious revolutionary situation is ripening in our nation. You can feel it in the conversations people are having, and I see it in the comments online. And I’m wondering what your personal strategy of behaviour will be during a revolution in our nation.

How are you carrying out your responsibility, your measure of responsibility? Are you prepared to enter a people’s court (which we will likely have in the event of a revolution) and would you be ready to defend your every decision and your ideals? Do you understand that this court will most likely be biased, because all revolutionary courts are biased? Do you understand that you might even be sentenced to death? Would you be ready to bravely accept it, as Saddam Hussein did, or will you leave and go to a friendly nation like North Korea, where you directed so much sympathy following the passing of their leader, unlike Vaclav Havel? Thank you.

DMITRY MEDVEDEV: A quick remark concerning people’s passing. Unfortunately, you simply didn’t follow the events very closely. With regard to Vaclav Havel, I also sent my condolences. But that’s not the point.

Vladimir, you have probably asked the bravest question of your life. My congratulations. You prepared for a long time and asked it with all the proletarian frankness. I will give you a straight answer. Any person running for President must be ready for anything – and I, too, am ready for anything. Why? Simply because if you have made the decision to do this, then you must understand that the fate of an enormous number of people depends on you.

We have over 140 million people, and Russia is a very complicated nation – a nation that has terrorism and many hidden conflicts; a developing nation with numerous problems, including in the political system and the economy; a nation with a high poverty level. And so, the President must be ready for anything.

If you are talking about the current political situation… You know, I am probably a bit older than you are … how old are you?

ANSWER: You are 20 years older.

DMITRY MEDVEDEV: Yes, I am 20 years older than you. So my attitude toward this is calmer. I remember 1989, and 1991, and 1993; I remember when we had tanks firing at the parliament. It was a sad situation for our nation. But we managed to pull out. Incidentally, television stations were seized too, and many other things happened. The point is that today we also have enough problems. And perhaps, in this regard, I cannot be fully satisfied with what I have done in the last four years.

As for predictions concerning the future – that is a thankless job. But in any case, I am certain our nation does not need any revolution, because Russia had its share of revolutions in the 20^th century. Unfortunately, we made so many mistakes… I am referring to our predecessors, government leaders. And, not just the leaders. You understand, after all, that it is not just the leaders who take part in revolutions, but also an enormous number of people, different people: those who believe in the ideals of the revolution piously and devoutly, and those who are making a career. But ultimately, what do these revolutions do in general? Revolutions eat their children.

So I would be very unhappy to see the events in our nation develop into a revolution or other extreme situation. But I will tell you honestly, I do not see sufficient preconditions for it. We have a significant number of people who do not like the current political system and the current set of political leaders – that is absolutely normal. Perhaps after some time, they themselves will come to power and run the country, if they can prove their views right and show that they are capable of running state affairs.

I can agree that it is imperative for us to work on improving our political life, because I have my experience, I am older than you, and ultimately, I have been in the government for a long time. I remember the 1990s. We had one situation in the 1990s, and a different situation in the last decade; now, we are living in the second decade of a new century. And every decade has had its own political principles and mindsets, but at the same time, we maintained the backbone of our political system.

I can tell you earnestly that about a year ago, I also had the sense of needing to let fresh air into our political system, simply because it is over-regulated. For example, legislation on parties does not correspond to today’s needs, even though a few years ago, I felt that we should have exactly the legislation that was in place. Why? Because we need to have strong parties, rather than hasty ventures participating in elections in droves. But now, it is clear that these rules are no longer functioning properly.

This also pertains to other issues, including both Presidential elections and procedures for our parliamentary elections, and that is precisely why I submitted these suggestions on changing our political system in December. And I would like you and your friends, your colleagues, and everyone who can watch us via their iPhones and other gadgets (for we did not specifically plan to broadcast this meeting, it is being recorded, as far as I know, only for the needs of Moscow State University) to know that these changes have not been planned only last December; I planned to do all this a year ago. Indeed, I see that to be the duty of the President.

And to conclude my answer to this question, I would once again like to say: I am not afraid of anything; otherwise, I would not be able to work as President, and believe me, this is a difficult job.

QUESTION: Can you give us an honest and concrete message: are you prepared for death penalty, to die for your ideals, or not?

DMITRY MEDVEDEV: I understand. If you are interested in an honest answer: yes, I am prepared to die for my ideals. Incidentally, ideals are not just the Constitution or a set of high values. They also include such things as family, children, and everything else. These, too, are values for which we must be ready to suffer, based on various considerations.

(The Mendeleyev Journal will feature more questions and answers from this session soon.)

[mendeleyev]

Look for more polarizing anti-American sentiment as we move closer to the Russian presidential election on 4 March.

I ran across the Obama photo today and the caption noted: Обама пообщался с гражданами США. В декабре Путин общался с гражданами России. Разница очевидна.

Translation: Obama (recently) spoke to Americans. In December Obama spoke to Russians. (The) differences are obvious.

So, race has entered Russian politics. Wow, who woulda thunk?!

Oh, and the first reply from a reader regarding the men in the photo was this: жиды (Jews)

So much for the argument that Russians are becoming more tolerant.

As I've expressed more recently in the Mendeleyev Journal, candidates can take to the airways and other mass media as of 4 February, thirty days prior to the election. Look for Putin and United Russia to wage an anti-American campaign that wraps the opposition in the American flag and labels them as obeying orders from Washington to destroy Russia.

The basic theme of the increasing messages will be to portray Russia's opposition as agents/spies for America in a plot to destroy Russia so that the USA can steal Russia's oil and other natural resources. Putin of course steps in to save Russia once more.

[mendeleyev]

Mendeleyev Journal:

You knew that it was coming.

At some point protesters were going to make a statement in full view of the Kremlin, and today on the morning of February 1, 2012 they have accomplished something not yet seen in this battle of wits, words and ideas.

(Text: Putin go away!)

Those working in the Kremlin can't miss this. The Kremlin is not the ordinary workplace for either President Medvedev or Prime Minister Putin but it is the most important symbol in all of Russia. Lots of people work inside the Kremlin every day and it will be interesting to see how long the sign remains in place at the top of a building across the plaza.

So far there have been no arrests.


(photo:  http://zyalt.livejournal.com/515687.html

[mendeleyev]

Analysis of the February 4 Protest Rally from the Mendeleyev Journal:

(The estimated crowd size was between 80 to 140k during the march. Photo: Alexandr Remnev.)

Major media outlets described the rally as being in the "tens of thousands" as police monitors again refused to release official numbers and estimated the crowd as being around 30,000. That figure was lower than the reality on the streets but the government appears either uninterested or unable in providing accurate data on the protests.


To be certain, a moving march is harder to count and this rally was a march that ended with speeches and songs at Bolotnaya Plaza. Moscow city officials had approved only a rally permit for a maximum of 50,000 participants so the idea of a rally and march to allow more citizens to participate along the route.


The BBC estimated the crowd at approximately 120,000 persons.

(Moscow officials approved a 3-hour rally, maximum 50,000 people.)

The march began at what is called Kaluga Square (Калужской площади) in Moscow near station Oktyabrskaya (Метро Октябрьская) on the Koltsevaya (кольцевая) line of the Moscow underground Metro system.


(February 4 "meeting" began at Metro Oktyabrskaya; photo by Ilya Varlamov.)

The route culminated at what Muscovites call the "Swamp" a small island between the Moskva River and its bypass channel, across from the Moscow Kremlin. The name of Plaza "Bolotnaya" (Болотной площади) comes from the Russian bolOto meaning "swamp" because of frequent spring and summer floods in past years. Thousands of protesters entered the Swamp via Metro station Tretyakovskaya (третьяковская), named after the State Tretyakov Art Gallery.






Opposition march organizers used social media to recruit volunteers to film and photograph events from their apartment balconies along the rally route.

(View from an apartment balacony along the march route. Photo: Ilya Varlamov.)


(Protesters carried signs saying "Russia Without Putin," "Another 12 years, no thanks!" and "PUTin in Jail.")





(Nationalist opposition leader Алексей Навальный (Aleksei Navalniy) was a prominent figure at the protest.)





(Opposition presidential candidate Михаил Прохоров (Mikhail Prokhorov) was surrounded by thousands of supporters. Photo: Ilya Varlamov.)

(Singer/entertainer Tatyana Lazareva (L) with her husband actor Mikhail Shats (R) and singer Aleksandr (C). Photo: Ilya Varlamov.)


(Putin advisor and former Finance Minister Aleksei Kudrin came to support the anti Putin protest rally.)


(Singer Yuri Shevchuk is often called "Russia's Musical advocate for democracy.")

Perhaps most embarrassing to Prime Minister Putin is the popular song sweeping across the nation as performed by a group of elite Russian para-troopers. Russian para-troopers are often thought to be the most revered troops in the military.








Lyrics: If you're a good citizen, if you're the President
 there's the Law and there are some restrictions that apply to you:
 You may not steal nation's money, and you should not ever lie to your people
 Be open to the public, be accountable for what you say
Had 8 years as a President, but now you're a candidate again!
 Now look into our eyes, and drop your nomination now!
 We trusted you, but you lied to us for so many years, using your old KGB tactics

[CHORUS]
You are just like me - a man, not a God
 I am just like you - a man, not some low-life
 We won't allow any more lying to us
 We won't allow any more stealing from us
 We are Freedom's Airborne troops, Motherland is behind us
You are just a typical state official - not a Czar, not a God!
 This country's Good Citizens are evil "bandar-logs" in your own eyes
 White colour of pro-freedom ribbons is everyone's pride here
 But to you it only reminds of some 'condoms' **

I look around and see your portraits everywhere
 You keep lying to us, and your henchmen also do
 We are tired of witnessing our nation's shame:
 Next to poor countryside there are your princely castles
You've weakened our national defence, ruined the Army
 Forgotten about the soldiers, dismissed the officers
 We won't forget everything that you've done
 We demand peacefully: Down with the Tyrant!

[CHORUS]

Remember our grandfathers, who battled the 'SS', remember our brave Airborne Guardsmen
 Battles of Berlin and Afghanistan are still in our hearts
 But for the ruling Party officials there are no other values, except money
In them honour is so scarce, as there is not much human dignity in them, it's only bullion's splendour that appeals to them
 Their luxury cars, fancy clothes, obsession with consumptionism
 Such is your corrupt System's cynicism!
Nation's culture is in decline, so is education, and there's even trading of college diplomas
 Bribery permeats everything, an old man here can't get his medical care
 Now your corrupt System has arrived to it's dead end


The song has lit up the Russian internet, getting over 1 million hits daily since it was composed in late December. Although this was the first live public performance of the song, thousands of rally attendees already knew the lyrics and sang along with the paratrooper band.




Many Russians are outraged that Mr. Putin wants another 12 years in addition to the 8 he previously served as President and his most recent 4 years as Prime Minister.

Chilling temperatures did not dissuade citizens from turning out as had been feared by the 'For Honest Elections' meeting organizers. Those who attended braved temperatures around -19C.

[mendeleyev]

More from the Mendeleyev Journal:

On February 4, the same day that Opposition forces marched in the centre of Moscow against Vladimir Putin and United Russia, citizens loyal to Mr. Putin put on their own display at Moscow's Victory Park (Park Pobedy) on Poklonnaya Hill (Поклонной горе).


(Pro Putin rally at Moscow's Victory Park, February 4.)

Thousands of Putin supporters (Moscow police claimed over 100,000) for a sizeable crowd on the same day that anti-Putin leaders were marching in Moscow. For an analysis on the importance of numbers of protesters across Russia, read the Adam Adomanis column in Forbes.


Give Putin's handlers credit--they've learned from the opposition protests. In late December the Kremlin promised that pro-Putin marchers would turn out in force to counter the 24 December opposition rally. While the opposition enjoyed a crowd estimated by experts at between 80-100K, Putin's team fell far short of the mark with a pathetic 2,000 a couple of days later.



(Pro Putin supporters were bused in from other cities.)

Determined not to allow a repeat of previous lackluster turnouts, government workers were bused in for the pro-Putin rally on Poklonnaya Hill. Free vodka, cash and extra days off were some of the "incentives" marchers told journalists who asked why they'd traveled to Moscow from other cities.


(Facilities for hot food and drink were reportedly denied opposition marchers but somehow the pro Putin rally was able to provide for their supporters.)

A kitchen providing hot food and drink (a similar permit was reportedly denied for the opposition) didn't hurt either. Whereas opposition groups must pay for their own protest and campaign materials, the Russian taxpayer seems to be footing the bill for Putin's counter rallies and materials.


As reported in the New Yorker, "Two days ago, the Russian franchise of Anonymous hacked the e-mail of youth minister Vasily Yakimenko. He is in charge of those Kremlin youth groups, and in charge of their fake protests. That protest with the pins and the scarves and the jackets and the drums? It cost the Russian federal budget—and the Russian taxpayer—nearly two hundred thousand dollars. Judging by the traffic the buses created near Poklonnaya Gora, Saturday’s protest probably cost even more."


So why did the Putin supporters come out in the cold weather to show their loyalty and support for Mr. Putin?





The only thing missing from the pro-Putin rally was Putin himself. Apparently he didn't need the free vodka.

[Gator]

Amazing.   The participation by the paratroopers is remarkable.   So this is not just the fancy of some liberals.
 

The protest is not dissipating.  Is it growing?   It reminds me of what happened in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya.  What is similar to the Arab protests?  What is dissimilar?

[possum]

Amazing.   The participation by the paratroopers is remarkable.   So this is not just the fancy of some liberals.
 

The protest is not dissipating.  Is it growing?   It reminds me of what happened in Tunisia, Egypt, and Libya.  What is similar to the Arab protests?  What is dissimilar?

About the same amount of people turned out for the opposition as they did for the previous rally. There was no violence, not one person was detained.. So, nothing like Egypt or Tunisia. It's hard to make predictions at this point as to whether this thing is going to grow or fizzle out over time, but one thing's for sure- Putin is getting smarter.. Today he came out with a number of proposals aimed at liberalizing the political system in Russia (gubernatorial elections and the like) so he's clearly adapting. He also denied the existence of political prisoners in Russia. 

[mendeleyev]

About the same amount of people turned out for the opposition as they did for the previous rally. There was no violence, not one person was detained.. So, nothing like Egypt or Tunisia. It's hard to make predictions at this point as to whether this thing is going to grow or fizzle out over time, but one thing's for sure- Putin is getting smarter.. Today he came out with a number of proposals aimed at liberalizing the political system in Russia (gubernatorial elections and the like) so he's clearly adapting. He also denied the existence of political prisoners in Russia.

Good analysis, Possum.

It is remarkable that Putin didn't like these reforms when Medvedev introduced them in Parliament last month. Now, he may be forced to do a "180" on these issues.

He will have to come around on the political prisoners issue at some point. One of the demands of the opposition, and they're united on this, is the release of Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev. It is a campaign plank for Prokhorov.

My guess: Putin will win in a 2nd round runoff. He will not serve a full term, likely less than 2-3 years before the winds of change (I pray them to be peaceful) flow again through Russia. Opposition leaders seem to understand this and are positioning themselves for a long struggle. They seem to have grasped that forcing a more honest election requiring Putin into a runoff is not the victory itself but part of a longer campaign for eventual change.

Gator, given the weather the achievement of 100K or so +/- was a tremendous message to the Russian people. However Russia is not yet ready to throw off the final Soviet yoke (I use that term purposefully). Moscow is leading the way but the rest of Russia will have to catch up.

A recent Levada Centre study showed that Putin still has the hearts of the very old and the very young nationalists. However you may be surprised that the average age according to Levada of the December Moscow protesters was 40, middle class.

[possum]

Good analysis, Possum.

It is remarkable that Putin didn't like these reforms when Medvedev introduced them in Parliament last month. Now, he may be forced to do a "180" on these issues.

He will have to come around on the political prisoners issue at some point. One of the demands of the opposition, and they're united on this, is the release of Mikhail Khodorkovsky and Platon Lebedev. It is a campaign plank for Prokhorov.

My guess: Putin will win in a 2nd round runoff. He will not serve a full term, likely less than 2-3 years before the winds of change (I pray them to be peaceful) flow again through Russia.

Simply put, Putin will do anything - and I mean anything - to stay in power.. If it means giving up some of his principles and allowing more freedoms, he'll do it. It's not like he has any strong feelings about civil liberties one way or another as long as the cash keeps flowing in the right direction and the right people are installed in all the key positions.

Putin will win presidency in the first round with a good 15-20% advantage over Zyuganov and will stay in power for at least one 6-year term.. That's my prediction.

[Gator]

Putin will win presidency in the first round with a good 15-20% advantage over Zyuganov and will stay in power for at least one 6-year term.. That's my prediction.

                                                                             vs. 
 

My guess: Putin will win in a 2nd round runoff. He will not serve a full term, likely less than 2-3 years before the winds of change (I pray them to be peaceful) flow again through Russia. Opposition leaders seem to understand this and are positioning themselves for a long struggle. They seem to have grasped that forcing a more honest election requiring Putin into a runoff is not the victory itself but part of a longer campaign for eventual change.

What is the wager? 
 
Possum, I gather you did not participate in the protests.
 
We have our own protests in the USA - Change the direction that America is taking.  Never have I seen my friends so concerned. 

[mendeleyev]

I couldn't possibly wager because either could be right as Possums assumptions are well within reason. I hope that Putin doesn't win in the first round because given current independent polling data, that would cause more accusations of election rigging and I fear that anger could spill out onto the streets.

Medvedev has done much behind the scenes to keep things calm, and Putin has bit his lip and gone along with it. However I agree that Mr. Putin is the kind of man who feels a very strong need to hold onto power. Were he to win even a flawed election in the first round he'll feel justified in a quick and hard-nosed crackdown on any opposition. The military however is a question mark and a crackdown could risk hastening an end to the Putin era.

A private meeting in central Moscow just prior to the New Year brought up the question of Army and police loyalty and officials are well aware that in a crisis, there will be fallout, especially among the rank and file. That is Russia's history and one just needs to look at 1917.

Oddly enough, both sides have remained gentlemen and that is amazing. Each month with 31 days there has been a protest for several years running as the opposition uses the 31st day for a "31" protest. Article 31 of the constitution enshrines the right to free speech, to protest and freedom of assembly. Up until December those much smaller rallies have seen frequent arrests. Since December there have been no arrests in those either so the government is trying hard to let the situation cool down.

[possum]

Possum, I gather you did not participate in the protests.
 

Not actively, no.. It's a new movement, and there's no way to tell which way it's going to go. For all I know, it's a fad, or worse, a spectacle orchestrated and financed by the US State Department. (What? Don't look at me like that, it's a possibility! What do you think the Arab Spring was? ) I can't risk being connected to something like that.. I need to know the authorities are caving in before I run off and join the 'Just Cause'..

[possum]

A private meeting in central Moscow just prior to the New Year brought up the question of Army and police loyalty and officials are well aware that in a crisis, there will be fallout, especially among the rank and file. That is Russia's history and one just needs to look at 1917.

As you're well aware, the police and the military have just received unprecedented increases in pay.. They now make 2-3 times the national average and they're beside themselves with joy! They feel like they've won the lottery.. Do you really think they're going to risk losing this windfall by disobeying Putin?

[Gator]

As you're well aware, the police and the military have just received unprecedented increases in pay.. They now make 2-3 times the national average and they're beside themselves with joy! They feel like they've won the lottery..

Have they reduced the amount of the bribes?   
 
I recall  a colossal traffic jam in Moscow at a  T-intersection on Prospekt Mira. 8 lanes (4 each direction) with one lane closed for repair.  The intersecting road was three lanes wide and while one lane was suppose to turn to the right, all three lanes were turning to the left.  Thus seven lanes in total are converging into three lanes, with intervening traffic in the opposite direction.  It was nighttime.  It was snowing. 

Of course no Russian driver obeyed the traffic light turn signals.  Sometimes the light would go through a complete cycle and not one car got through.   When it seemed as if an opening was about to be created, a bus would enter. 

It was horrible.  It took over one hour to advance 100m. 

I asked my ex-wife, "Where is the police?  This place needs a cop to direct traffic."

She answers, "They would not work this interesection as it is too congested.  They could not collect bribes here."

I replied, "I always enjoy your sarcasm.  It makes me laugh during a bad situation."

She said it is not sarcasm but the truth.  After we finally got through the intersection, the traffic sped up.    We drove about 3-4 km, and there were the police standing alongside the road with their batons (and several cars pulled over).   What a country!

[Vaughn]

I'd like to thank all participants in this very worthwhile thread. I've been trying to follow recent events and trends on Channel One, but my comprehension just isn't up to snuff to fully absorb and understand nuances, implications and predictions.

[OlgaH]

Perhaps most embarrassing to Prime Minister Putin is the popular song sweeping across the nation as performed by a group of elite Russian para-troopers. Russian para-troopers are often thought to be the most revered troops in the military.

Amazing.   The participation by the paratroopers is remarkable.   So this is not just the fancy of some liberals.
 

it would be more correct saying the "participation by a few former paratroopers" under "?"

Here is the official website of the Russian Airborne Troops. One of the articles on their website is an article that anti Putin rally in Russia is the USA work, "Putin is a barrier on the West domination way"  " http://sdrvdv.ru/ .

A deputy chairman of  the Russian Airborne Troops Union Valery Yuryev said that the singers of anti Putin song have nothing to do with the Russian Airborne Troops and can not officially represent the Russian Airborne Troops position and they wear  the Russian Airborne Troops uniform illegally.

[mendeleyev]

As you're well aware, the police and the military have just received unprecedented increases in pay.. They now make 2-3 times the national average and they're beside themselves with joy! They feel like they've won the lottery.. Do you really think they're going to risk losing this windfall by disobeying Putin?

You bring up a good point. At the meeting I referenced was a representative from President Medvedev's office, a deputy Prime Minister and several United Russia MPs. They seem concerned about it to the point of developing a timeline on how quickly reinforcements could arrive at each checkpoint around the Kremlin. As you know very little takes place inside the Kremlin save for administrative staff and diplomatic functions. However the Kremlin is Russia's most important symbol of power, leading even the White House, and contingency plans are in place if mass protests were to attempt to overwhelm Interior Ministry troops and occupy the Kremlin territory.

Earlier today President Medvedev chaired the quarterly meeting of the Federal Security Service Board (FSB and related agencies) and began his remarks by saying, "First, this year will be full of events, the most significant of which will be the presidential election. It is clear that this event may provoke different reactions and it cannot be ruled out that the militants from the North Caucasus will become more active; therefore, I demand increased efficiency in this area for the election period. The service must use all its operational capabilities, all the skills acquired in recent years, and last but not least, you must detect and prevent possible provocations of all types of extremists."

The President is correct as there are all manner of interests in disrupting life in Russia. I'm not worried about the USA because they understand that a destabilized Russia would give license to Islamic groups where tensions seems to boil just below the surface in some Republics.

[mendeleyev]

A deputy chairman of  the Russian Airborne Troops Union Valery Yuryev said that the singers of anti Putin song have nothing to do with the Russian Airborne Troops and can not officially represent the Russian Airborne Troops position and they wear  the Russian Airborne Troops uniform illegally.

I bet that statement came out not 5 seconds after someone got off the phone with BBП. 

Quite a natural reaction but if the government arrested every veteran still wearing the cloth of the branch they served with distinction at public events, the jails would be overflowing.


In the spirit of equal time we'll post the new song sung by Tolibzhon Kurbankhanov a singer from the former Soviet Republic of Tajikstan. The lyrics tout the praises of Putin for pulling Russia from the brink of destruction and returning it to a world power. The name of the song V-V-P (В В П in Cyrillic) are Mr. Putin's initials. The video begins with singer Kurbankhanov standing outside the White House in Moscow.

[OlgaH]

I bet that statement came out not 5 seconds after someone got off the phone with BBP. 

Quite a natural reaction but if the government arrested every veteran still wearing the cloth of the branch they served with distinction at public events, the jails would be overflowing.

Mendeleyev,  when a person says he is for honest elections he has to be honest himself. Mikhail Vistitsky, a leader of the band, served in the 34th   reconnaissance battalion of the Russian Ground forces in Germany. Veteran? Veteran of what? There are millions of men serve in the Russian Army, they are not all veterans 

On his FB page Mikhail wrote that his song was approved by  the Russian Airborne Troops Union, but in reality it has never been approved by  the Russian Airborne Troops Union.

Here they are, former paratroopers celebrating their official day, vodka, street fighting and fountain swimming is included into the celebrating program 

Paratroopers are usually nationalists.

[mendeleyev]

Without a protracted argument over the definition of "veteran" here is a dictionary's assistance:

• A person who is long experienced or practiced in an activity or capacity: a veteran of political campaigns.
• A person who has served in the armed forces: "Privilege, a token income . . . were allowed for veterans of both world wars" (Mavis Gallant).
• An old soldier who has seen long service.

adj.

• Having had long experience or practice: a veteran actor.
• Of or relating to former members of the armed forces: veteran benefits.

[OlgaH]

Without a protracted argument over the definition of "veteran" here is a dictionary's assistance:

OK, how would you apply it to the RF Law on veterans 

http://www.consultant.ru/popular/veteran/31_1.html

[mendeleyev]

Easily, just read the definition of "veteran."

[OlgaH]

Easily, just read the definition of "veteran."

Have you read the Russian Law on veterans?

[mendeleyev]

Enough to know that Article 3 defines a "Combat Veteran" and Article 5 defines a "Military Service Veteran."

Again, we could go on and on about the definition of a veteran but for what purpose? There are two songs sweeping the Russian Internet right now and one is by these Paratroopers against Mr. Putin and the other was written and performed by a Tajik, a performer from another country and is pro Mr. Putin. The Russian people, not I, will judge whether or not they like either song. As they seem to think that both have a place in the current political debate, I'll report on it.