Russian Presidential Candidates

[mendeleyev]

From the Mendeleyev Journal--

For Russians there is an election coming in March 2012 and likely it will be one of the most important for the Russian people in recent history. In this series we'll take a look at the major candidates.


First, the USA and other western nations should remind themselves that they are not Russian voters. The election of a Russian president should be conducted without outside influence and carried out to the satisfaction of the Russia people themselves.


Those who might argue that another country has an interest in the outcome of an election should be reminded that while all nations have an interest in the outcome of an election in another country, such does not the give the right to influence those proceedings. Do we wish to have Russia monitors present at a USA election? Does Russia have the right to monitor elections in the UK or Canada or the Netherlands? The role of other nations should extend no further than to collectively lend moral support to independent Russian monitors who are doing the work in their own country.


Михаил Прохоров: Surprisingly to most Russians, Mikhail Prokhorov isn't known for anything by the average American. Oh, basketball fans and politicians know him as the New Jersey Nets team owner and a fewer number of Americans know that he was a Russian Duma candidate (lost the election) but other than that, he is a "no name" in American life.


Russians however know him from CSKA basketball and as a Russian billionaire, with a fortune around $18 billion according to Forbes.


(Russian businessman, owner of the New Jersey Nets, will run for president.)


Young and brash at 46 years of age, the billionaire does generate an instant reaction from most Russians just at the mention of his name. To some he is a rich oligarch and international businessman. To others he is a Kremlin stooge, a close ally of Vladimir Putin, and the ousted leader of the "A Just Russia" political party. Yet, many see him as a truly independent minded political rival to Putin, a true alternative to politics as usual in the Russian capital. We simply don't know and will let the Russian people decide.


You may be surprised to learn that his fortune began in clothing. His father was a member of the State Committee on Sports and Mikhail (Michael, or "Misha" to friends) got to sample some of the goods his father brought home from the West. Everything from Jeans to Watches was sampled and he quickly learned that Soviet manufacturing was vastly inferior to most other places in the world.


He then moved into chemicals and medals (Norilsk Nickel) and made another fortune.


Dress:
Clothing business aside, these days he dresses nicely but refuses to engage the services of a tailor.


Favourite foods:
On a Twitter post he listed his favourites: Любимая еда детства — российский сыр с колбаской типа сервелат. Отварная курица нравится с младых лет, обожаю сладкое, а вообще предпочитаю русскую и грузинскую кухню. From childhood he has loved Russian cheese and sausage. Also, chicken and of course he has a sweet tooth but his favourite cuisine styles are Russian and Georgian foods.


(Mikhail Prokhorov, New Jersey Nets workout facility.)


Exercise activity:
As mentioned, his father was on the State Sports Committee so working out and exercise have always been a part of his life. He has a reserved spa at the Nets facility and works out daily.


Social media:
For a guy with a popular blog and Twitter account you may be surprised, that just like his friend Vladimir Putin, computers are not a big think in his life. Unlike Putin, for whom the computer age has passed behind, Prokhorov is smart enough to know their value. That he says, is why he has a secretary.


Charitable ties:
He created a foundation with his sister. He funds, she runs. He claims to know little of it's inner workings.



Religious faith:
православная (Orthodox).


Favourite books & authors:
Prokhorov claims that he has no time to read and since his sister is a publisher, he can depend on her to tell him anything important. He claims not to have read either of the two books that have been published about him.


How much money did he lose in the financial/ruble collapse of August 1998?
He was a bank owner then and says the bank lost over 1.5 Billion in US dollars at the time.


Some of his investors told him, Вы все украли! Не врите, будто у вас ничего нет! Верните деньги! (Don't lie--you stole it! Repay the money!) He says that investors respected his honesty over time as he repaid his debts.


That was a time when he was afraid to eat dinner at home and surrounded himself with armed security. It was a period of great turmoil for a newly independent Russia.


(Mikhail Prokhorov Nickel plant; photo by Aleksandr Ivanizhin.)


What was the most unexpected thing that happened when he took over the metals manufacturer Norilsk?
He was forced to get back into the clothing business. The metal workers union was responsible for producing the protective clothing for factory workers. Corruption was rampant and the clothing was of low quality and really didn't protect workers so he stood up against the union and opened a clothing factory for uniforms. He engaged the services of designer Оксана Ярмольник (Oksana Yarmolhika) and their efforts were so successful that the clothing factory began to distribute protective uniforms all over Russia.


Soon the Russian Army was a buyer from his clothing factory.


His business advice for future millionaires?
Know the difference between a business and a hobby. If you come to like something too much, it is a hobby and therefore difficult to sell. Selling a company you're created is a great way to make money and diversify holdings.


If you own a business become an expert at it. Upon purchasing the Nickel plant he studied at the local Mining Institute.


When asked if every business venture could be successful he replied that every venture has no need of being successful as long as you can learn from the mistakes.


His views on the environment:
The Soviet Union was one of the world's worst polluters and the environmental damage done under Communism will take centuries to erase. A responsible company takes care of the environment because it is good business and good for the people who work and live in the communities that host your businesses.


(The environment was a concern when Mikhail Prokhorov purchased Russia's largest Metals company.)


On sex tourism:
Some claim him to be an international "playboy" but he denies the charge. His father traveled internationally and Mikhail says his father taught the principle: "В своей стране делай, сын, что хочешь, а за границей — ни-ни!" (In our own country do what you want, but in the country of someone else--do not!)


On the role of government:
Главное дело власти – обеспечивать соблюдение конституционных прав граждан. (The main role is to protect the constitutional rights of citizens.)


On the current protests:
Я против революций (I'm against revolutions). He does believe that the current protests are a legitimate expression of the people's dissatisfaction with how government works.


Last Saturday's protests brought out tens of thousands of protesters in the biggest opposition rally in Moscow since 1993. However Prokhorov cautions his fellow citizens, saying Революции в России всегда приводили к человеческим жертвам и снижению уровня жизни граждан. (Revolutions in Russia have always ended in loss of life and lowering of living standards.)


Prokhorov is expected to appear at the next protest rally on 24 December.


On his views of the recent elections:
He had no doubt that United Russia would not maintain a monopoly in Parliament and feels that a simple majority, rather a monopoly is good for constitutional governance.

 
His researchers project that about 8 percent of the protest vote was the Communist Party, about 7 percent for the Fair Russia party, about 5 percent divided between three non-parliamentary parties. He estimates that 40 percent of eligible voters stayed away from the polls because there was no viable alternative candidate.


He believes that breaking United Russia's monopoly on parliament gives an excellent chance for democracy to thrive in Russia's future. The situation now means that the Kremlin will have to work hard negotiate with other parties and will be forced to listen to the people.

 
Prokhorov says that if changes are not made then the system will collapse within the next five years. He is optimistic though and says there is a great need for new political ideas, for new faces and new ideas through the creation of new parties and movements.


(Mikhail Prokhorov in Moscow.)


What would he propose to fix the current crisis:
1. Во всех крупных и средних городах выделить удобные для граждан места для свободного выражения мнений (аналог Гайд-парка в Лондоне, в Москве, например, Парк им. Горького). Пусть интернет выйдет на улицу, и у власти будет возможность слушать своих граждан и принимать нужные решения (а не выводить "Наших", провоцируя противостояние в обществе, и не заниматься ремонтом трубопровода именно там, где люди хотят собраться).


Translation: Provide convenient places for citizens to meet and express their views in all medium to large size cities. Do not attempt to restrict the internet and thereby the government to listen to its citizens. Do not allow TV stations to limit coverage to showing groups like "Nashi" confronting other legitimate groups and do not pretend to construct pipelines where a public meeting has been scheduled.


2. Партия власти нуждается в серьезном реформировании, и сделать это должен человек, который вел эту партию на выборы. Медведев, как лидер списка, мог бы эффективно руководить Думой, сделав ее "местом для дискуссий" и центром законодательной инициативы.


Translation: The ruling party is in need of serious reform, and the person most qualified to do is the man who led the party in the elections. Dmitry Medvedev, as the leader, could effectively lead the Duma, making it "a place for debate" and the center of legislative initiative.


3. В этом случае Путин по Конституции становится и.о. Президента и будет обладать всеми необходимыми полномочиями (что соответствует реальному политическому рейтингу) для проведения честных президентских выборов, которые должны радикально отличаться упрощенным доступом к возможности стать кандидатом в Президенты (для граждан снизить объем подписей в 10 раз, дать возможность выдвигать кандидатов не только парламентским партиям, но и общественным организациям и блокам). Это откроет мощный политический и социальный лифт, ощущение справедливости и правильности действий власти, даст победившему кандидату политический ресурс на проведение реформ и формирование нового правительства доверия.


Translation: (With an effective Duma) Officials would be forced to act under the Constitution and there would be a fair presidential election, for which there must be radical changes and simplifications so that any citizen could have the opportunity to become a presidential candidate. Reduce the amount of signatures from 2 million, and don't restrict candidates to belong to parties which have seats in parliament. This will open up a powerful political way for participation and give a sense of fairness to elections, giving the winning candidate the political resources to carry out reforms and forming a new government.


4. После президентских выборов провести реформу политической системы (наши предложения были подробно изложены в Манифесте "Правого дела" образца до 14.09.11) и в случае, если спокойствие и позитив в стране не восстановлены, провести новые выборы в Думу. И обществу, и власти предстоит пройти большой путь навстречу друг другу. Но другого пути я не вижу и своей стране не желаю…


Translation: After the presidential elections and reform of the political system, if calm has not been restored then hold new Duma elections.


Upon making his presidential bid announcement some observers are speculating his candidacy to be a ruse, meant to siphon off ill will by Russia's middle class and allow Vladimir Putin to return to the presidency. In the initial press conference Prokhorov was vague in criticisms of his friend Vladimir Putin and the United Russia party.


He has until Thursday to file paperwork a presidential candidate with the Central Elections Commission. Then he will need to collect 2 million signatures in order to appear on the ballot.


He was recently ousted from the political party Right Cause, which placed last with just 0.6 percent of the nationwide vote in the State Duma elections on 4 December.


Is he afraid to oppose Vladimir Putin?
Friends warn that he could be following in the footsteps of billionaire Mikhail Khodorkovsky who was imprisoned in 2003 for most acknowledge as Putin's punishment for his political ambitions. He says that he is not afraid, yet admitted that "there's no fence against ill fortune."


Former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin, a long time ally of Prime Minister Putin but fired by President Medvedev, is said to be working with Prokhorov to form a new political party.


Quote from Mikhail Prokhorov on 27 September, earlier this year:
I think we are on the verge of very important - perhaps tectonic - shifts within the power elites. This will inevitably be accompanied by the release of the new ideologies, new concepts of government and new people - the holders of the ideologies and concepts. They will not fit into the usual system of liberals versus conservatives, left against the right, etc. I think we are facing very significant events.



Mendeleyev note:
In announcing that he would run for president in March, Prokhorov declared himself a "champion of the middle class" and promised that he was already working to create a grassroots political party to counter "populist tricks" and promote open dialogue between Russian citizens and the government.


(Translations herein are for the purpose of conveying basic ideas and not as word for word.)

[mendeleyev]

Candidate Prokhorov has certainly wasted no time in getting a web strategy online. His website features a large red checkmark with the words "Mikhail Prokhorov--our President!"

Site address: http://voteforprokhorov.ru/

[Misha]

Candidate Prokhorov has certainly wasted no time in getting a web strategy online. His website features a large red checkmark with the words "Mikhail Prokhorov--our President!"

Site address: http://voteforprokhorov.ru/

The question is whether he is a real opposition candidate or whether it is all part of the larger plans of Putin & Co. 

[mendeleyev]

The question is whether he is a real opposition candidate or whether it is all part of the larger plans of Putin & Co.

This is something that concerns many Russians, even some of Prokhorov's friends and other opposition groups.

[Faux Pas]

First, the USA and other western nations should remind themselves that they are not Russian voters. The election of a Russian president should be conducted without outside influence and carried out to the satisfaction of the Russia people themselves.

Geeze Mendy. I find this remark a little disturbing. You mean free of and without outside influence like the elections of an American president? 


My point of reference is back in early 08 I happened to be visiting Russia while Obama was making a tour of europe as a presidential candidate, not even the nominee. The tour was being carried by all of the english speaking news channels in Russia as well the Russian channels. The reception Obama received in europe was nothing short of that of a messiah. Even the Russian channels were goo-goo eyed in the coverage. It was quite disgusting.


I couldn't rationalize in my mind why Obama was there, what he had hoped to accomplish and why europe was so enthralled over a mere candidate. Well, in November 08 we found out and we've been dealing with it ever since.


FTR IMHO, outside influence might keep the March elections less corrupted . The status quo in the Russian election process is highly suspect.

[mendeleyev]

while all nations have an interest in the outcome of an election in another country, such does not the give the right to influence those proceedings

 

PS...I agree about the messiah, btw.

[Muzh]

I don't mean to hijack this thread, Mendy. However, the following is very critical for the upcoming elections and how it may affect the "Presidential Candidates."
 
The long life of Homo sovieticus
 

Many Kremlin politicians in fact perceive themselves as progressive Westernisers struggling with a backward, inert population which has neither the taste nor the skill for democracy. They assume people will swallow anything as long as their incomes keep rising. But when Mr Putin said that his job swap with Mr Medvedev had been planned long ago, people felt duped. These blatant machinations, where everything was imitation and nothing was real, leached away support for United Russia even before the elections. When the Kremlin decided to rig the ballot openly, fury boiled over.
 
After a decade of “stability”, Russia now looks as vulnerable to shock as the Soviet Union was at the end of its days. The big difference, however, is that the Soviet Union had a clear structure and, in Mikhail Gorbachev, a leader who was not prepared to defend himself with force. Today’s circumstances are very different.
 

http://www.economist.com/node/21541444
 
Edit: I just realized that this is posted somewhere else. Sorry.

[Faux Pas]

PS...I agree about the messiah, btw.

In case I glossed over too fast as was pointed out to me in a PM, I agree with your assessment that the election should be uninfluenced by the outside. Highly unlikely that could happen though

[mendeleyev]

Highly unlikely that could happen though

Unfortunately the world power USA has a president who is ready to jump in any emerging situation from Libya to Egypt to Russia. I have greater respect for Sec State Hillary than as when she was a candidate for Prez, but she is wrong to have injected charges of fraud so quickly without waiting for independent monitors to have spoken first. There was fraud, and she should have spoken, but the timing was terrible.

The "reset" is effectively over and Mr. Obama's appointment of Michael McFaul as the next Ambassador to Moscow (a mistake of biblical proportions) may have to be delayed even further. Hopefully for a long time.

[Muzh]

Unfortunately the world power USA has a president who is ready to jump in any emerging situation from Libya to Egypt to Russia. I have greater respect for Sec State Hillary than as when she was a candidate for Prez, but she is wrong to have injected charges of fraud so quickly without waiting for independent monitors to have spoken first. There was fraud, and she should have spoken, but the timing was terrible.

The "reset" is effectively over and Mr. Obama's appointment of Michael McFaul as the next Ambassador to Moscow (a mistake of biblical proportions) may have to be delayed even further. Hopefully for a long time.

Mendy, let me throw a dissenting vote.
 
Bush's Cold War triumph a lesson for GOP
 

Twenty years ago last week, three courageous Soviet republic presidents, led by Russia's Boris Yeltsin, met near Minsk to plot the destruction of their country. On Christmas Day 1991, their decision forced the end of a once great and powerful empire that splintered into 15 new states as the communist hammer and sickle was lowered from the Kremlin.

As a young National Security Council aide, I listened in as a notetaker as President George H.W. Bush made a farewell call to Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev.

It was a stunning event. The most powerful foe we had ever faced had gone out of business.

The Cold War really ended that day, capping the extraordinary years of 1989 to 1991, when all the communist satellite states of the Warsaw Pact fell, Germany was united miraculously in NATO, and Russians, Ukrainians, Kazakhs, Armenians and other nationalities were liberated from the cruel legacies of Joseph Stalin and Leonid Brezhnev.

The true victors of the Cold War were visionaries like Vaclav Havel, Lech Walesa and Yeltsin, as well as the peoples of Eastern Europe. But, a large share of the credit is also due to George H.W. Bush who has, for too long, been denied the accolades paid to Ronald Reagan.

Bush's persistent, clever and patient diplomacy made the difference in the critical autumn of 1991. Following the attempted coup against Gorbachev in August, Bush pushed the Soviet leader behind the scenes in September to recognize the independence of the Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania — which had been unjustly incorporated into the Soviet Union at the start of World War II.

Bush artfully juggled American relations with a declining Gorbachev and rising Yeltsin. He reassured them as they dismantled an empire without a shot being fired.

Bush's accomplishments in ending the Cold War, unifying Germany and amassing the Gulf War coalition that defeated Saddam Hussein make him arguably the most successful foreign policy president of the last 50 years.What lessons can we draw from Bush's masterly work?

First, creative and purposeful presidential diplomacy continues to be a national requirement. We lost sight of that at times in the decade after 9/11, when we turned too frequently to the military to respond to fires burning overseas.

Second, we need a president with a deep knowledge of the world and the self-confidence to act boldly on the biggest stage imaginable.

We cannot afford to elect a president who requires on-the-job training. While the 2012 election should clearly focus on the economy, it must also be about who best can lead us through the thickets of the most complex strategic landscape we have ever encountered.

That is why Republican voters will need to judge which candidate can match President Barack Obama's impressive international record. This just may be a rare election when the Democratic candidate can claim legitimately that he is best prepared to defend the country.

Jon Huntsman is the only Republican candidate who has extensive international experience. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich have demonstrated adequate global knowledge. But none of them can match the sophisticated international background and skill that George H.W. Bush brought to the White House.

That is a worthy topic for Republicans to debate and to worry about as the primaries begin.

Nicholas Burns is a professor of the practice of diplomacy and international politics at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. He wrote this for The Boston Globe.


http://www.timesunion.com/opinion/article/Bush-s-Cold-War-triumph-a-lesson-for-GOP-2401221.php#ixzz1gWA51sz1

[Tristan]

Muzh,
 
You shouldn't worry about the fact that you posted a link to the Economist article here that I posted previously.  This seems like a great place for it and this topic is quite interesting.  And thank you to Mendeleyev for starting this topic and posting all the excellent information about Putin's challenger.

[mendeleyev]

Thanks to you both.

Muzh, I'm not advocating isolationism, but a respectful cooperation while allowing Russians to solve their problems. Given the climate and attitudes about Washington, it seems to me that Russians right now need to feel that the USA is giving them some space, not pressure.

Had Hillary said the very same things, a few days later, it would have been received very differently.

[mendeleyev]

It seems that I'm constantly traveling these days but when possible I'll profile the other candidates, including Mr. Putin, soon.

[chivo]

 

Unfortunately the world power USA has a president who is ready to jump in any emerging situation from Libya to Egypt to Russia. I have greater respect for Sec State Hillary than as when she was a candidate for Prez, but she is wrong to have injected charges of fraud so quickly without waiting for independent monitors to have spoken first. There was fraud, and she should have spoken, but the timing was terrible.

The "reset" is effectively over and Mr. Obama's appointment of Michael McFaul as the next Ambassador to Moscow (a mistake of biblical proportions) may have to be delayed even further. Hopefully for a long time.

I guess. The reset wasn't some "oh I was just kidding when I said I hate those commies"  thing, now I trust you lets be friends.
 
Personally, nothing has changed IMO. What you have is just that old cold war mentality rearing its ugly head, as if it ever went away. Politicians do what they feel they must given any situation. And I hope you're not giving Hillary too much credit for stirring up things in Russia. Sorry, but the people here don't give a rats ass what Hillary thinks.
 
I do mostly agree with your opinion of McFaul, but probably for different reasons.
 

I agree with your assessment that the election should be uninfluenced by the outside. Highly unlikely that could happen though.

The internet is why things are happening here, not outside influence. You can put whatever you want on TV and control the press, but you can't change what goes on via the internet. The internet here in Russia is full of first hand accounts and videos of what's been going on with the elections.
 
The protest over the weekend was mostly attended by young people although all classes of society were represented. It was quite peaceful as well with the growing "middle class" making its presence especially known.
 
I give both sides (the people and the government) credit for such a peaceful demonstration. It at least shows me that the government understands the power of the internet and if for no other reason than self preservation, understands that compromise and not force will make a difference. Nobody here wants a revolution, certainly not the people. 
 
I have been saying for years that the mentality of the new generation (and Russians as a whole) is changing very fast. As it relates to relationships mostly, but just the mentality in general. And part of the problem with the government here is that they have underestimated this. The internet generation can see one thing on TV and another on the internet. The people are simply tired of being duped. But make no mistake, this is not some sort of a build up to a "Russian spring"
 
As far as the Russian people are concerned, it's "let us handle our situation by ourselves". IOW, foreigners "stay the f*ck out of our business" we know what's going on and if we're wrong, then let us deal with the consequences.

[mendeleyev]

Traveling still, but will try to profile Alexei Navalny next.

We'll start with this from the Mendeleyev Journal as it is current news:

How do you smear someone you wish to marginalize?


(Originally with Mikhail Prokhorov and Alexei Navalny at Radio Echo, the doctored photo inserted Boris Berezovsky to the left. Berezovsky is wanted on criminal charges by Russia.)


Photomontage is one of the oldest tricks and is back in fine form in Russia. This week a newspaper article written by supporters of the ruling United Russia party created a fake photo showing popular blogger and protest organizer Alexei Navalny in a meeting with exiled Russian tycoon Boris Berezovsky.





Above: the original photograph with Mikhail Prokhorov (L) and Alexei Navalny (R).
The article, published in a Yakaterinburg area newspaper, falsified a charge that Navalny had met with Berezovsky and receives money from the self-exiled Russian to protest against the Kremlin.


The real photograph featured Navalny along with Mikhail Prokhorov, a billionaire who owns the New Jersey Nets basketball team and is also running for the Russian presidency but was doctored by a group purportedly connected to United Russia in order to discredit Navalny’s protest work. ''Alexei Navalny has never hidden that Boris Berezovsky gives him money for the struggle with Putin,'' was the headline under the doctored photograph.




(Navalny with Stalin. "He doesn't hide.")


It didn’t take Navalny and his followers long to have some fun of the piece and soon they had produced more fun personalities and fake captions. Ultimately this reflects badly on Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.




It was only a matter of time before someone added Mr. Putin to the doctored photo.

While doubtful that the Prime Minister had anything to do with the intended smear campaign, this is yet another example of an online piece going viral only to become an embarrassment to Mr. Putin, rather than smearing Navalny as had been intended.



(Arnold, meet Alexei.)


Those who support Mr. Putin’s bid for President in March should call upon those running his campaign to act more aggressively in reining in such pranks from the process. At worst, a classic Stalinist styled smear. At best; childish, foolish. and extremely amateurish.

This was nothing short of silly and makes it difficult for an ever-growing cynical public to take United Russia and by default, Mr. Putin, seriously.

[Gator]

Mendeleyev,


Interesting prank or smear tactic and done by the press no less.   In America we can become upset with how a paper may edit a story, yet this is complete fabrication.


A few questions: 


1.  This was done by a local newspaper.  Do the "major" newspapers follow standard credos of journalism?


2.  The average Russian knows this is a smear, and it thus lowers Putin's credibility.  Could this have been done not by Putin's team but by the anti-Putin group?  Seemingly Putin would be more clever and not infantile.


3.  Is it possible that this was done by one of the other Presidential candidates jockeying to upstage Navalny?


4.  Why would anyone want to be President considering what happened to Mikhail Khodorkovsky (to me it seemed like Putin's ultimate power move,  "We made Mikhail a billionaire and now he opposes us; for any other billionaire with such ideas, watch what happens to Mikhail").

[Gator]

Residing in Russia, you may have missed this 60 Minutes interview of Prokhorov.    It reveals that  Prokhorov was lucky in that his party girls sexploits forced him to sell his shares of Norlisk, as it happened just before the huge downturn in the market.  He was awash with billions in cash when cash was king.   He was able to invest in new companies at bargain prices, and even spent a pittance on an NBA team.

http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=6795542n&tag=mncol;lst;1

[mendeleyev]

 A few questions: 
 
 

1.  This was done by a local newspaper.  Do the "major" newspapers follow standard credos of journalism?

 
 Yes and no. I believe that for the most part journalists, editors, publishers, reporters and broadcasters want to do high quality and professional work. Other than Pravda which has turned into a supermarket tabloid, most of them do.
 
 But just as there was political pressure on mayors and governors to "deliver" a certain vote, often in Russia a journalist's career is dependent upon a certain slant on a story. Whistle-blowers in Russia meet a very different fate when they buck the system.
 
 
 

2.  The average Russian knows this is a smear, and it thus lowers Putin's credibility.  Could this have been done not by Putin's team but by the anti-Putin group?  Seemingly Putin would be more clever and not infantile.

 
 I don't doubt that it was not done at his suggestion. Yet it was done. The system and the pressure the system generates often entices folks to do unreasonable things. Likely it was a group of younger adults still wet behind the ears. But the bottom line is that somehow it got published and someone higher up on the local food chain obviously missed an opportunity to straighten out the young punks in the process until they'd already made a laughing stock of their leader.
 
 
 

3.  Is it possible that this was done by one of the other Presidential candidates jockeying to upstage Navalny?

 
 Not likely. It is not at all like the Republican primaries in the USA where several established candidates are battling it out. The opposition is so disorganized that they probably don't know the day of the week without first checking a calendar, much less making a strategy to jockey ahead of other candidates.
 
 

4.  Why would anyone want to be President considering what happened to Mikhail Khodorkovsky (to me it seemed like Putin's ultimate power move,  "We made Mikhail a billionaire and now he opposes us; for any other billionaire with such ideas, watch what happens to Mikhail").

 
Now that Gator, is a question I've been contemplating over the holiday...and also as to why the public opposition seems to have fizzled for now.
 
About a week ago a series of RUtube videos went viral and they featured protesters and opposition leaders holding pieces of paper in front of themselves and giving their names. Why? Everyone wonders when the other shoe will drop! When will authorities unleash the dogs so to speak and put a world of hurt on the protesters. These folks were going on record, as a recorded history just in case something happens later. They are taking on risks by speaking out. They see what has happened just over in Belarus. 

When you think about it, we only are 6 years down the road from the first sentencing of Mikhail Khodorkovsky. That was not that long ago and the usual threat of opposition is to end up in the same place as Khodorkovsky. 

What makes Alexei Kudrin risk speaking out? Some will say that he is a stooge for Putin but if so he's an incredible liar and actor as well. Know what? Kudrin has never been a liar and he's too "black and white" to become one now. He is too serious and staid to try on an acting career at his age. I believe that his opposition is for real.   

Gorbachev is proving to be a major statesman at 80 but whether or not the man who goes lion hunting bare chested is smart enough to listen is yet another matter.
 
There was a meeting in Moscow over the holidays and you'd have been stunned at the subject matter. There was a former deputy prime minister present (current high up in United Russia) and several other UR officials. Also represented were several opposition leaders, a group of journalists, and independent political pollsters.
 
I cannot write in great detail about the topics because they involve state security as in how many minutes would it take for reinforcements to create a second line of defense around the Kremlin walls and entry points. How many on-duty police would cooperate with the protest movement during a major crisis, etc?
 
Could a mass crowd movement to Red Square really happen? Easily. It has happened before in history, and most revolutions happen in cool/cold weather, just not during the most important holidays.

Think April.

Inside the Kremlin is the elite Kremlin regiment. But while their first priority is to protect the president and the Kremlin itself, this elite group (of which I've written much about) is well loved by the people because of their public image as a ceremonial group.They are the pride of Russia. They'd protect the President but he is rarely at the Kremlin. Neither is Putin.

This group acknowledged that a properly organized opposition could lead a crowd to storm past the Kremlin gates and onto the Cathedral Square. There on Cathedral Square crowds in generations past have deposed and appointed new rulers of Russia. Thankfully the purpose of the meeting was to offer solutions and not make plots but such men must look at every angle to be properly prepared.My point is that just for this to be discussed, with several journalists present, is mind-boggling! Give Mr. Putin credit for allowing democracy to come this far--it doesn't seem that long ago (but it was) when the best way for a Western journalist to know if a Soviet leader had been deposed or had died was to drive by Red Square late at night. If the giant life size posters of the leadership on the rear of the historical museum were still hanging, then all remained the same. If they were taken down secretly during the night, a call could be made to one's national bureau to be expecting a change.One could, even should, question why Mr.Putin wasn't standing alongside President and Mrs. Medvedev in Christ Cathedral for the Christmas Eve night liturgy, a tradition to do so. Well, he was out in the villages at a little church just like last year. Security reasons? Not likely, in fact probably to avoid the obvious absence of Mrs. Putin--the two no longer seeing much of each other these days according to some.

Remember that Putin is a hands on person. Getting out into the brush and rubbing shoulders with the local folks is a good way to judge whether the opposition is truly nationwide or perhaps just a bunch of new Russian yuppies all concentrated around the two capital cities.Putin is a student of Nicholas II and one thing the last Romanov Tsar failed to do was get out and rub shoulders with the common folk--and that failure cost them the dynasty. He is not going to make the same mistake.I can't predict what will ultimately happen because the batteries in my crystal ball aren't working.

[mendeleyev]

Gator, an equally important question is how to keep the fonts even on this forum software?

I did everything on a Word document in Times New Roman, 12 pt, and pasted. What you see is what looked really nice in Word.

Any ideas?

[Gator]

Mendel,


Thanks for the special insights from someone on the ground.   Winston Chiurchill's remark from 1939 is still valid.

"I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."

We probably are just seeing the enigma and have not yet reached the mystery, much less the riddle.


Regarding the font problem, bummer.  I also have had some issues when copying. 

RWD installed some new software a couple of months ago.  There is someone to whom we are suppose to report problems; however, I forgot how to make the report.  So I will report your thread to the moderators - someone there will get the issue to the correct person.  I am away for a few days so I am out of the loop.

[SANDRO43]

Gator, an equally important question is how to keep the fonts even on this forum software? I did everything on a Word document in Times New Roman, 12 pt, and pasted. What you see is what looked really nice in Word. Any ideas?

Mendy, just avoid using an external text-formatter like Word to prepare your post . What you later paste into the RWD window retains some Word formatting, like:

Code: [Select]

<span style="font-family: times new roman;" class="bbc_font"><span style="font-size: 11pt;" class="bbc_size">A few questions:
that messes up the end result. I don't know if Dan and Dewed can do much about that, i.e. having it stripped off automatically .

[mendeleyev]

Thank you, Sandro.

[mendeleyev]

So how is the election being perceived out in the "sticks." Let's go to Shakhty, a coal mining town in the Rostov area, visiting via our vk account.

Well, the election that is generating the most excitement is the race for "Miss Shakhty" from what I can see at present. Can't say I blame folks as the blonde gal with 148 photos of herself in various mini & heels settings is enough to make most grown men cry, much less think of politics. Hot dang, I'm tempted to register and vote in this one!

That being said, I'm surprised that one of the young men from Shakhty had time to post the following on his vk status. Were I his age, I'd be spending 24/7 trying to figure out how to snag that mini-skirted blonde. Here is what he found time to express:

ХОТИТЕ ПРАВДУ???!!! ЧТО же произошло во время правления 3-х президентов???

ЕЛЬЦИН
1. На 23,7% сократилась территория страны;
2. На 10 млн. человек уменьшилось население;
3. На 5 млн. стало меньше детей, 3 млн. детей не ходят в школу,
5 млн. живут на улице;
4. 14 млн. находятся за чертой бедности;
5. В 2,5 раза возросла смертность младенцев;
6. В 48 раз увеличилась детская смертность от наркотиков;
7. В 77 раз стало больше детей, заболевших сифилисом;
8. В 2,4 раза возросло число русских, больных туберкулезом,
9. В 10 раз наркоманией, в 25 раз сифилисом,
10. В 3 раза снизился объем промышленной продукции;
11. В 13 раз сократился бюджет страны;
12. В 20 раз увеличилось количество бедных;
13. В 14 раз стало больше организованных преступных групп, ими контролируется половина экономики страны.
13. Ущерб экономике России от Ельцина в 8 раз больше, чем от Гитлера.

ПУТИН
1. Вывезено 750 млрд долларов в США и на Запад;
2. Газпром стагнирует, имея долга 66% от годовой выручки (норма 10-12);
3. Госгаз/нефть продаёт финский дружок Путина через частную фирму "Ганвор";
4. В Форбсе 200 лиц (было 3);
5. 90% экономики - доход от "бананов" - нефти/газа;
6. Цены на жильё выросли при Путине в 10 раз;
7. В телевизоре поют оды "лидерам" 25 часов в сутки;
8. Пенсия 150 долларов;
9. Цены на продукты растут, как хотят (либерализация цен, начатая в 90-ых);
10. Инфляция не контролируется. За год правительство уже 4 раза меняла прогноз;
11. Коррупция небывалая (сам Путин признал);
12. Медицина - лучше не болейте бесплатно;
И это происходит в тот период, когда цена на нефть/газ ВЫРОСЛА в 10-20 раз.

МЕДВЕДЕВ
1. Пенсия как была, так и осталась мизерной;
2. Кредиты растут;
3. Произвол на местах чудовищный;
4. Люди боятся милиции (теперь уже и полиции);
5. Цены на еду растут как на дрожжах;
6. Депутат, имея з/п 150.000 рэ (без чаевых - смайл), жрёт ещё в буфете Госдумы салат из сёмги по 28 рублей;
7. Цены на ж/д билеты растут;
8. Цена на бензин растёт, даже когда цены на нефть снижаются;
9. При невиданном урожае хлеб растёт в цене.

Whether or not his stats are 100% on the mark, we are reminded that his post came from a young man in a coal mining and industrial area which had stagnated for a very long time. Now that the region is seeing a consistent return to economic growth, we might have expected the locals to rise to the defense of the policies of Prime Minister Putin, especially in the greater Donbass region so close to Ukraine's hardcore Russian nationalists. Not so, as you can read. This lad seems fed up with corruption as much as his counterparts in Leningrad and Moscow.

So he asks, ХОТИТЕ ПРАВДУ?

Well yes we'd like to know, although we're not certain that truth will be determined by the election in March. In fact rarely do elections anywhere on the globe determine "what is truth." However something will be determined at that time, whether it be an exiting new future, a return to Brezhnev styled stagnation and authoritarianism, or a period of tumultuous uncertainty.

Uncertainty is what we have now. Somehow that fits in with all that is "Russian."
 

[mendeleyev]

From today's Mendeleyev Journal:

The Russian presidential elections are coming in early March but Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will not participate in a televised debates with rival candidates. The Prime Minister's spokesperson says that debates are part of  an active presidential campaign which would mean taking leave from his post, something Mr. Putin's duties do not allow.  In the words of the Putin campaign, taking part in debates would prevent Mr. Putin from “carrying out in full his duties as prime minister."

Currently serving as Prime Minister of Russia, Mr. Putin has already served two 4 year terms as president of the Russian Federation. His opponents point out that Mr. Putin seemed to find time for marathon media news conferences yet refused to debate challengers. His advisers say that  if pressed, Mr. Putin could nominate representatives to take part in debates for him. In a question and answer session with media representatives following his annual televised phone-in last month, Putin said that it would "not be a discussion on equal grounds" if he personally took part in debates.

The Putin campaign also unveiled the new Putin for President website, saying that information on the site would answer most questions voters might have about his platform for the coming election.





New Putin election website: http://www.putin2012.ru

Meanwhile Ilya Mikhalchuk became the first Russian governor to be ditched after United Russia’s setback in the December Duma elections. President Dmitry Medvedev signed an order to immediately terminate Mikhalchuk’s powers although the Kremlin says that the resignation was of Mikhalchuk’s own free will.

Back in October 2011 Medvedev had warned Governor Mikhalchuk that his job was in danger, asking “Does Arkhangelsk have a leadership capable of handling these problems, or do we have to change it? […] We cannot tolerate this any longer”.



(photo: http://russia-media.ru/generalnews/morenews)

Mikhalchuk was also one of 15 governors summoned for an immediate meeting in Moscow after the ruling party United Russia fared poorly in the December 4th elections for parliament. According to Barentsnova.com several governors are in the "danger zone", including Murmansk governor Dmitry Dmitrienko and the governor of the Vologda region, Vyacheslav Pozgalev, was fired soon after those elections.

[mendeleyev]

From the Mendeleyev Journal:

Russian Opposition works to speak with one voice--

As is common with many in media we subscribe to President Medvedev's page on VK. In and of itself that is no special deal as anyone can subscribe to the President or many of the opposition leaders with just a simple click. However in days past one could have argued the dangers of allowing authorities to easily see others with whom you associate or in this case "follow" on a public forum, but these days it seems as if the opposition has less and less fear of such exposure.

Another group we "follow" is a new organization aimed at unifying the opposition, recently co-founded by mega-blogger Rustem Adagamov (LiveJournal "другой") along with a group of well-respected of opposition members. Their website, in Russian language only at this point, is http://ligaizbirateley.ru and the stated aim of the group is to provide a unified voice to the opposition in order to fight potential fraud in the coming Russian presidential elections on 04 March.





Given the immediate level of interest among the general popular and opposition leaders, the formation of the group has apparently caught the attention of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. This is the same Mr. Putin who in his nationwide call-in show derided the opposition as being a joke. He went so far as to label protesters white lapel ribbons as "condoms" only to later plead that it was an honest mistake. Poor vision or perhaps a case of poor judgment?

The same Mr. Putin declared recently that it would be senseless to meet or debate opposition leaders because it would be an unfair conversation, implying that his knowledge was vastly superior to any who would challenge his views.

"Well, surprise, surprise" as Gomer Pyle used to say, Mr. Putin is ready to meet the opposition. Did that unfair advantage just disappear into thin air or is there too much heat directed at a certain man who offices in that tall Белый дом (White House) on Moscow's Krasnopresnenskaya embankment? After all, these are the same folk who organized the successful protest rallies, called митинги (meetings) in Russian, in December and include well recognized names such as rock music legend Yury Shevchuk, millionaire businessman Georgy Vasilyev and TV host Leonid Parfyonov.




Putin's joke that protesters white ribbons were condoms was a serious mistake in the eyes of the average Russian voter.

Mr. Putin is fast learning that the opposition is not a laughing matter. In fact, if he fails to respond quickly to genuine changes the joke will be on him, regardless of who wins in March. Last year he was shocked when a group of young people booed him at a sporting event and on Christmas Eve in his liturgy shown nationwide on TV from the nation's main Cathedral, Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill warned authorities to listen to the wishes of the people. Mr. Putin was not present, but President Medvedev was in attendance.

Meanwhile the Moscow Times is reporting that The European Court of Human Rights has agreed to hear a complaint from a group of Saint Petersburg voters regarding alleged fraud at 130 polling stations during the recent Duma elections of December 4.