Reforming Russia?

[mendeleyev]

The reform from a single-party state towards a multi-party democracy is still in progress. Russia did not choose the dualistic system of the USA and Britain, instead opting for the system found in Continental Europe of multiple parties. In the near future a coalition may be unavoidable after elections, and that will be a real test of democracy.

Agreed.

[mendeleyev]

Being on ground you probably can prove that statement. I am sure Mr Putin would ask you to.

Quite easy. His own media has already done that for him.

[Shadow]

Quite easy. His own media has already done that for him.

As we choose most programming for the kids, currently I am better informed about the life of Mr Tumble as about world news. On the birght side both guys seem to understand perfect English. Perhaps time for us to move to an English speaking country where they need programmers.

[mendeleyev]

You are lucky, Shadow. I hate politics and yet often find myself neck deep in the middle of it simply because that is what often constitutes a significant portion of a typical news day. In a perfect world I'd earn my keep by writing/speaking on culture, music and the arts. Russia has so much to offer in those areas that it is a shame that much goes unreported and half the things reported go unused by the time a story hits an editors desk.
 
Russia has some of the finest and most savvy computer programmers in the world so I can see why you'd do well there in that professional environment. What do you think of the new Skolkovo technology centre?
 

[Shadow]

You are lucky, Shadow. I hate politics and yet often find myself neck deep in the middle of it simply because that is what often constitutes a significant portion of a typical news day. In a perfect world I'd earn my keep by writing/speaking on culture, music and the arts. Russia has so much to offer in those areas that it is a shame that much goes unreported and half the things reported go unused by the time a story hits an editors desk.
 
Russia has some of the finest and most savvy computer programmers in the world so I can see why you'd do well there in that professional environment. What do you think of the new Skolkovo technology centre?

I understand what you mean, and my usual problem is that I have been taught politics at the level of those who are in it. This makes me look at things a different way, a way most people do not even want to consider.

As for Skolkovo, I might do ok in a management role but I am sure they can find programmers in Russia that can beat my skills. But if Dmitri calls I am available. 

[chivo]

 

I don't know. Medvedev lost a lot of legitimacy by acquiescing so easily to Putin back in August 2011 when the decision was made that Putin would return.

Medvedev never had a lot of legitimacy.
 

I don't know Russians (my relatives and friends) who would prefer Medvedev over Putin. They both are quite similar in their actions, however Putin is trusted more. People still enjoy the significant improvement in life associated with Putin's rule, they do not consider him as a necessary evil but rather as a protector of stability.

Exactly.

[chivo]

What do you think of the new Skolkovo technology centre?

Grossly underfunded.
 
Mendy, are you in Moscow now?

[mendeleyev]

Grossly underfunded.
 
Mendy, are you in Moscow now?

I'll try to get some handle on budget figures.

Haven't been on the forum for several days due to travel for company speaking engagement at a conference in Missoula, Montana. I'm leading coverage of the inauguration on 7 May and then the Victory Day celebrations which begin in Moscow with the laying of wreaths at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier on 8 May and then the parade and Victory Ball on 9 May.

We plan to spend some time at our Bulgaria vacation flat afterward but I don't always get to determine that schedule--last year our Bulgaria trip was interrupted with the G8 and I'm already planning for Camp David this year for those meetings in mid-May.

This week President Medvedev fired the governors of Perm and Yaroslavl so if that cleansing continues I'll be forced to adjust our summer schedule.
                                   

[mendeleyev]

The cleansing of governors continued, a clever move by a master manipulator, leaving just 4 governors (in solid United Russia regions) who will stand for re-election. The rest, all new or moved from one region to another, can keep their seats and don't have to run for re-election until the next cycle.

Brilliant, even if dirty. And yes, very dirty after promising Russian citizens that they could return to the practice of electing their governors in the next elections.

I also stayed in Moscow covering the May protests and moving from camp to camp. See the Mendeleyev Journal for daily reports and photos of the May events.

[mendeleyev]

From today's Mendeleyev Journal:


Call it the "Khordorkovsky Syndrome" if you will. Someone is charged with a crime and then the government keeps adding more charges. Not because the person charged is guilty, but because the government want to make a point...as understood the world over in the Mikhail Khordorkovsky case.


Aleksandra Aykhanina being drug by an OMOH government riot trooper on 6 May. (Photo: Kirill Lebedev)

Police states do interesting things to their unfortunate subjects as an 18 year old resident of Moscow is discovering. Alexandra Dukhanina participated in the protest of 6 May which turned violent when government police went on a rampage against citizens.


Aleksandra Aykhanina during arrest on 6 May. (Photo: Kirill Lebedev)

Investigators found that she participated in the rally which turned violent but also found that she was not part of the planning and orchestration of the event. As is often the case however in what is looking more like a dictatorial-styled system, the court has issued new charges against Ms. Dukhanina, now alleging that she threw a piece of asphalt at officers and that her participation incited a riot. The expanded charges could mean a sentence of eight years in prison.


Aleksandra Aykhanina in court. (Photo: Kirill Lebedev)

[Faux Pas]

Welcome back Mendy!

Godspeed there guy. Journalism isn't the safest profession in Russia in years past. I fear it will become even more testy as the Putin tentacles look to entrench his *cough* administration. Be careful

[mendeleyev]

Thanks, FP.
 
Although working, and certainly not participating in the protest activities, I narrowly avoided arrest several times including one early morning raid on a popular breakfast spot for journalists when OMOH troops rounded up foreign journalists refusing to wear a required blue vest during police actions/crackdowns. Frankly it was good that I had breakfast at home because on that morning it really didn't matter who wore a vest and who didn't. No one was formally arrested and the detention was less than 3 hours which is the statutory cutoff on charging/holding someone.

For several days I didn't wear the vest, the excuse being that the colour didn't match my eyes and shoes, just to make a point. Mrs M put her foot down after the raid and the vest went on. I have to respect what she feels as well.

A couple of nights were spent in jails but not from being detained. Rather a small group of Western journalists were allowed access to certain high profile prisoners to witness that those detainees were being well treated.

[Faux Pas]

Thanks, FP.
 
Although working, and certainly not participating in the protest activities, I narrowly avoided arrest several times including one early morning raid on a popular breakfast spot for journalists when OMOH troops rounded up foreign journalists refusing to wear a required blue vest during police actions/crackdowns. Frankly it was good that I had breakfast at home because on that morning it really didn't matter who wore a vest and who didn't. No one was formally arrested and the detention was less than 3 hours which is the statutory cutoff on charging/holding someone.

For several days I didn't wear the vest, the excuse being that the colour didn't match my eyes and shoes, just to make a point. Mrs M put her foot down after the raid and the vest went on. I have to respect what she feels as well.

A couple of nights were spent in jails but not from being detained. Rather a small group of Western journalists were allowed access to certain high profile prisoners to witness that those detainees were being well treated.

I have a good feel of what you must be experiencing. It is quite a challenge. When to adhere, when not to. It is relatively apparent that you will at some point meet the crossroads. I really don't see a free press in the offing with the Putin regime. Whats your thoughts on the more immediate future With Putin firmly calling the shots?

[mendeleyev]

If I told you the truth, that it is unlikely the current situation will last six years, I could be detained much longer than 3 hours, or worse. If there are to be changes I hope they will be peaceful. However I am oh so mindful of Russian history, and the history of this great land has reserved no place for peaceful change.

Russians are awake. The days of settling for "stability" and security while letting the oligarchs and ruling class rape the country are coming to a close. I watched a babushka, she had to be close to 90 years old, berate an OMOH senior officer as if her frail fingers could render him and his battalion helpless in slow motion. What struck me was that she at one time must have been the perfect poster for the "stability" generation of the former CCCP. Not any longer and she was not alone.

In the days of May I witnessed some of the most dramatic confrontations one could imagine. The first was the simple act of a small boy who darted away from his parents who were part of the rally and rode his bicycle on training wheels up to a police line. I'm sure that at his age he was more curious than anything else, but it was one of those "you had to be there" moments.

That simple event, caught on the iphone camera of Julia Ioffe, Moscow correspondent for The New Yorker and Foreign Policy magazines, sent an image around the world of a child facing down Moscow riot police near the Kremlin gates.






Second, on 6 May (the single most violent day of the crackdowns) a young lady who judging from her clothing possibly newly pregnant, took on an entire line of troops. True that front line troops are not the feared OMOH but rather newer trained recruits, however her performance was powerful.




Third, was the vision of an old veteran. Decorated to the hilt with all his medals from the war against Nazi aggression, he hobbled up to an OMOH line with the help of his cane and stood there in defiance, daring them to march thru him. They stopped and waited, the standoff lasting more than 7-8 minutes until some bright captain ordered his troops around him and they continued forward.


Then on Sunday the 13th there was a massive walk/rally through the centre of Moscow. Organized by well-known and respected writers and authors, it was peaceful but showed those in the Kremlin that the opposition is not waning, and in fact is growing in number.



The next opposition rally is scheduled for 12 June. It will be interesting to see how the new anti-rally law (unconstitutional at its very core) will be tested. Never ones to let article 31 of the Constitution get in the way of business as usual, the government will apply that law with full force to make examples of those who disobey.

The government is rolling the dice in hoping that this law will dampen the opposition. If it fails to do what the Duma sponsors intend, all bets are off.

[calmissile]

Mendy,

Will you be covering Ukriane in October?

[mendeleyev]

Likely and hopefully things will be calm in Moscow by then. 

I remember almost vividly those cold but world-changing days of the Orange Revolution. I don't see that happening in Ukraine this time.
 

[mendeleyev]

FP, as to a free press, here is the dynamic: These are scenes from an HTB (N-T-V) crew who were caught in the midst of a rally. NTV is state owned television operated by Gazprom (Gazprom Oil) Media.

Foreign press wear blue vests with the English words "press" and domestic crews wear yellow vests with the Cyrillic lettering for press, "пресса." The TV crew is trying to explain that they are there working but the public, fed up with only pro-government reporting, isn't so kind to them.




Here on 6 May is an HTB (NTV) television truck caught and surrounded by protesters. They're shouting позор (pah-ZOR ehn-teh-veh) which means "shame on HTB" and pelting the truck.

[mendeleyev]

In that second video you can also hear shouts of фашисты (fahsh-isty) or "fascists" (as in Nazism) from the crowd directed at the state owned television crew. There are many things now dividing Russians which is sad.

[Muzh]

Are they calling them prostitutes almost at the end?

[mendeleyev]

Good ears, Muzh!

After you mentioned it, at about the 2:50 mark it sounds like "prah-sti-tut-ki" which is проститутки (prostitutiki).

[mendeleyev]

(From the Moscow Times): Authorities are proposing introducing fines and short prison stays for those placing hyperlinks to "extremist content" on the Internet, media reports said Tuesday.

According to a copy of the proposed amendments on the Communications and Press Ministry website, penalties for including links to extremist content could stretch to 3,000 rubles ($90) or a 15-day administrative sentence, Vedomosti reported. In another amendment, mass media outlets accused of extremist activity could be fined up to 300,000 rubles. Fines for outlets judged to promote terrorism could reach 1 million rubles.

Authorities consider content "extremist" after the Prosecutor General's Office files a complaint and the Justice Ministry includes the item in the federal list of extremist materials. There are currently 1,256 items on the list of extremist materials. For the most part, leaflets, songs, video clips by nationalists, separatists and radical Islamist groups make up the list.

Read more at the Moscow Times.

[Faux Pas]

Mendy

Putin grappling control on every front. I guess more so controlling the opposition? Seems in the past Lushenko was a perceived stooge of the Kremlin. It would appear the Kremlin is taking pages out of his playbook

[mendeleyev]

FP, what we're seeing is an attempt to gradually return to Soviet era controls and yes, the opposition to Putin is much larger and stronger than he ever imagined. If he thought that being booed by nationalist youth that November 2011 night at a boxing match was surprising, we can only imagine what a surprise the monthly protests not only in Moscow, but in other cities has been for the great victor over Siberian tigers.

A new Levada Centre poll shows that Putin support by voters even over-40 years of age who were previously thought to be in his traditional power base is dropping every time a poll is taken. Almost half of all Russians are against the new law restricting protests and almost 70% of Russians feel that the government was more to blame for the violence in May.

His support was measured at just under 51% in mid-February, just 3 weeks before the election. State run TV stations gave him 56-58% of the vote on the night the election closed but the Central Election Commission stated his total at 60.63% with a total of 45,602,075. So it seems that the only polls showing him to be in the majority are those his handlers can control.

As the government does a slow collapse, we'll likely see more painful attempts at the old Soviet style repressions, it's the only thing Putin knows how to do, and that strategy will only serve to hasten the end. His so-called legacy of "saving Russia" in his first two terms will be forgotten on the garbage heap of history unfortunately. Russian changes in power have always been slow to develop and violent upon arrival. That is her history or "DNA" when it comes to change.

If the price of oil falls or the economy falters, thing could get darker much sooner. That isn't good for anybody.

The bright spot in the opposition was that all the arrests of recent months pushed into the forefront new faces of potential leadership. TV personality and women's business advocate Elena Popova has declared that she wants to be Prime Minister within 5 years and has begun mentoring under well known business leaders and members of parliament as part of her training to eventually run for that office.

Other bright stars include Sergei Mitrokhin, Ilya Ponomarev a former Yukos executive and member of Parliament has become an outspoken opposition leader, Marusiya Podlesnova, Aleksandr Riklin, actor Alexi Devotchenko, journalist Mariya Perfileva, political commentator Stanislav Belkovsky, Oleg Kozyrev, Nikolai Levshits, scientist Irina Kuzmina, musician Konstantin Troll, LiveJournal executive Anton Nossik, and so many others rose to leadership roles while police were rounding up the normal suspects such as Alexi Navalny, Kseniya Sobchak, Ilya Yashin and Sergei Udaltsov, etc.

One could add another 20 significant names to that list and in so doing, the next time someone spouts that "there are no true leaders to replace Putin among the opposition" (or some variation thereof) you'll know that they are either a pro-Putin supporter with their head firmly planted in the sand or they are simply trying to speak out on a subject in which they are woefully ignorant.



     

[mendeleyev]

The best course of action for Putin to remain in influence would have been a continuation of the "tandem" concept. The opposition to it alone was much smaller and Medvedev was moving the country forward to modernization at a pace that was acceptable to the average Russian.

When Putin, computer illiterate (he doesn't use one), social media novice (doesn't do them), and smart phone challenged (doesn't like cell phones), took over it was simply too much and too backward. How can a man who can't navigate common tools in use widely by ordinary citizens, be expected to lead the country into a needed modernization effort?!

Had he left things as they were, the protests would never have happened or would have been small and lost traction.

His next big mistake was the election of December for the parliament. Yes, he needed a majority in the Duma to hold onto power if he was to replace Dmitry Medvedev but that election had so many obvious question marks that it was an embarrassment to the average Russian citizen. Subtlety isn't in the Putin dictionary however and if something is going to be jammed down the public's throat, it will be done in the most public and notorious way possible.

Likely United Russia would have won anyway and allowing the opposition to score some gains would have given the tandem added legitimacy. That flawed election swelled the ranks of the opposition.

Mr Putin has time to redeem the situation. Start by taking a page out of Medvedev's book and invite the opposition leadership to meetings and begin a dialogue. Next, have an outside European commission look into the December election and back off from trying to "guide" the outcome.

Next, appoint prominent opposition leaders to advisory posts in government. When the time comes, and the European Commission would most certainly recommend a new Duma election, schedule and run the election. He should take charge of honest reforms and you'd see the ranks of the opposition begin to wither--there would be less need for their existence.

Even though his approval rate has dropped steadily since he took office there is still a window of opportunity for Mr. Putin to rally Russian citizens and resume the role of a leader.
           

[Belvis]

Other bright stars include Sergei Mitrokhin, Ilya Ponomarev a former Yukos executive and member of Parliament has become an outspoken opposition leader, Marusiya Podlesnova, Aleksandr Riklin, actor Alexi Devotchenko, journalist Mariya Perfileva, political commentator Stanislav Belkovsky, Oleg Kozyrev, Nikolai Levshits, scientist Irina Kuzmina, musician Konstantin Troll, LiveJournal executive Anton Nossik, and so many others rose to leadership roles while police were rounding up the normal suspects such as Alexi Navalny, Kseniya Sobchak, Ilya Yashin and Sergei Udaltsov, etc.

One could add another 20 significant names to that list and in so doing, the next time someone spouts that "there are no true leaders to replace Putin among the opposition" (or some variation thereof) you'll know that they are either a pro-Putin supporter with their head firmly planted in the sand or they are simply trying to speak out on a subject in which they are woefully ignorant. 

Watching the name list  you provided I'm afraid I have no any choice but to be a pro-Putin supporter 
My mindset is pretty close to an average russian (my suspictions), so I think the typical attitude to the bright stars crowd could be expressed with words from Vysotski's song "Letter from a madhouse". Just a fragment:
Мы не сделали скандала -
Нам вождя недоставало:
Настоящих буйных мало -
Вот и нету вожаков.
[Rough translation:
We have failed to produce a scandal -
Because we lack the leader:
The shortage of true violent lunatics -
So captains are not here]

Mendy, would you propose Paris Hilton (Kseniya Sobchak) to lead USA? Even Zhirinovsky looks as a decent politician on their background. Let them to be bright stars and entertain  TV audience, but I don't want they affect my life.