<tit>
IF A WAR COMES...<aut>Pobedoved
<src>Za Pskovsky narod (web site Za-pskovskiy.narod.ru), March 9, 2006
<sum>Radical opposition warns that a war on Russia is inevitable.</sum>
<cov>REPRESENTATIVE OF RADICAL OPPOSITION: WAR ON RUSSIA WILL BE DECLARED IN 2010-2012
Asked to gauge the possibility of a war with the United States, most people are confident that it is impossible.
We do not want a war, but a war it will be. When? Presumably in 2010-2012. With whom? Presumable with everyone out there. Why? Because Russia will find itself in the possession of huge territory and colossal resources and absolutely unable to defend itself. Who are the foremost potential enemies? The United States and China. These two world powers aspire for global leadership, and each will need Russian riches to draw on in the forthcoming conflict.
The shape of the Russian nuclear shield will reach its all-time low by 2010-2012. At the same time, it will be the period of deployment of practically all newest weapons systems by America:
- deployment of a strategic airspace group and national ballistic missile defense system of several echelons, not to mention mass deployment of submarines, aircraft, tanks, and missiles of new generations;
- deployment of 100,000 high-precision guided missiles (it took only 1,000 of them to bombard Yugoslavia out of existence);
- manufacture of super-small nuclear munitions for use against the enemy's underground command centers and missile silos;
- manufacture of powerful hafnium bombs that kill all life but leave no lingering hard radiation;
- deployment of all sorts of "non-lethal" weapons including psychotropic;
- installation of a new framework of deployment - forces of permanent mobilization ever ready to deliver a strike, the forces that do not actually need to be deployed. The interim between the political decision to go to war and the onset of the hostilities as such will be down to several hours.
The US military budget is larger than military budgets of Russia, China, India, Great Britain, France, and Germany taken together. Analysis of US rearmament programs leaves no doubts as to Washington's intentions - preparations for a war on a full scale. Absence of a war will render United Prospect'2010 Rearmament Program obsolete because there will be nothing to assure America's superiority in quality and quantity over "all potential enemies". In other words, America is making preparations for a strike at a strong enemy or several enemies at once at the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century. Russia will probably be one of the targets, and Russia will be unable to reciprocate.
It is precisely by 2012 that the Russian nuclear potential will become 1/600 of its 1991 level! It was in the Soviet era that the launch of 300 Satan missiles would have meant for the American ballistic missile defense system the necessity to deal with 3,000 actual warheads and 12,000 false targets. Facing 15,000 potentially lethal entry vehicles and powerful jamming to boot, the ballistic missile defense system could not hope to decide which of them to engage. Satan missiles pierced and destroyed any national ballistic missile defense system, paving way for 1,200 missiles launched by the Strategic Missile Forces.
What will be left with in 2012, to answer the Americans with? Nothing at all. At the current rate of production, Russia will have but 100-120 Topol-Ms in silos and mobile Topols. The American first strike forces in the meantime will have enough high-precision nuclear-tipped missiles to destroy all Topols and Topol-Ms and command centers five times over. Our unmatched S-300 and TOR complexes will be too few to negate the first strike. Even if some of them launch against all odds, these missiles will be taken out by guided missiles and unmanned craft circling our missile regiments at an altitude of 20 kilometers.
Russia will have nothing at all to take out the unmanned craft. Dozens of killer satellites will be waiting for any missile to reach orbit. Even assuming some stray missile escapes, it will fall victim of naval and ground anti-missiles of the American national ballistic missile defense system.
Apart from the Topols, strategic nuclear aviation of the Air Force and Navy may in theory reach the territory of the United States. It is clear, however, that all surviving aircraft of the strategic nuclear aviation will be destroyed in the very first hour of the operation the way it was done in 1941. All Russian airfields with aircraft carrying nuclear missiles may be destroyed by a volley from a single USS quietly approaching the Novaya Zemlya. The same fate awaits the Russian nuclear fleet which will be destroyed in the first five minutes of the strike. Each of the two or three nuclear submarines that may find itself on patrol at the moment will be tracked by several satellites and hunted by dozens of the enemy ASW ships, planes, and submarines. Disrupting these submarines' contact with the world outside will be easy, and skippers will never receive the order to launch.
The American national ballistic missile defense system will be able to intercept no less than 70% of the Russian missiles by 2012. By 2010-2012, Russia will only be able to deliver 4-5 nuclear warheads to the American territory hoping to kill but several million Americans (which will only consolidate the Americans and provide the US Administration with the excuse to stiffen the political regime). This is the price the World Government will not hesitate to pay for 30% of the global reserves of raw materials. Moreover, the World Government will be only too happy to lessen the parasitic population of the United States that consumes way too much. Russia's losses may be considerably lighter, providing an excuse for a direct colonial takeover and unrestricted exploitation of natural resources and manpower.
The assumption that Russia is the prime target is confirmed by activeness of American intelligence. At least 60% of the CIS annual budget is spent on counter-Russian intelligence. US reconnaissance aviation makes almost 1,000 flights along our borders and intrudes into our territory on at least 100 occasions.
Before 2004, when new countries were admitted into NATO, the Alliance had 41 division and 86 brigades of permanent combat readiness in the Western direction. Russia had only 4 divisions and 5 brigades there. In the Far East, the United States and Japan have a total of 15 divisions against zero Russian divisions. In the Trans-Baikal Military District, we have one division facing 109 Chinese ones.
According to the plans of shifting units bases from West Europe to Poland and the Baltic States, the Pentagon will establish up to 30 military bases in the Baltic States alone. Needless to say, they are not going to be established just for kicks. NATO designed operational plans of action in the Baltic States in 1993. One of them (Russian invasion of Lithuania) permitted NATO hostilities against Russia and Belarus with Ukraine remaining neutral. "Matters will not deteriorate to the level of a nuclear war, but NATO will in all the same one day plus 89."
These days, it takes NATO attack aircraft only 20 minutes to reach Moscow from Estonia. The united antiaircraft defense system is an illusion.
As things are, NATO air armadas on their 600 kilometer long leg to Moscow will only encounter about 800 aircraft with 200 of them airworthy and even less than that combat ready. Antiaircraft units will only be encountered in Moscow environs, the areas NATO aircraft will not even fly into in the first place. They will launch guided missiles somewhere on the line between Rzhev and Vyazma. Specialists say that should NATO attack at low altitudes (100 to 300 meters), they may encounter no aircraft or missiles at all.
Establishing AF bases in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, NATO AF got the unique opportunity to strike at Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, and Samara.
It does not take a genius to understand that Western strategists will not hesitate to attack Russia after 2010. Just try to put yourselves in their shoes. Any delay (even until 2015), and colossal resources of Siberia and Far East will end up in the hands of China, America's number one rival. Along with the almost 100-fold military superiority over Russia in the Trans-Baikal region, China has already executed a substantial ethnic expansion. Official data (not advertised) indicate that over 4 million Chinese lived in Russia permanently by the beginning of 2004.
In the meantime, some experts predict the increase of the Chinese population in Russia by at least 600,000 men a year, most of them settle in the east. Simple multiplication shows that there will be at least 10 million of them in Russia by 2015 (20 million, some experts say). It will make the Chinese the second largest ethnic group in the country as such and the largest in some regions (mostly on the borders).
By the second decade of the 21st century, China will have at least 20 million battle-worthy men without families and therefore comfortable old age to look forward to. That's because more boys are born in China than girls. The war is the only way of evening out the gender disparity.
In a matter of years already, China is bound to find military expansion the only solution to its multiplying problems born from the shortage of land, timber, oil, food, and metals. North and northwest (i.e. Russia, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan) will be the most attractive directions for Beijing. Just fancy 20 million Chinese invading Siberia from the south and 10 million more in the east. Even if they wield bamboo sticks and nothing else, it will require the use of nuclear weapons to stop them.
RVR
