Life Changes...Part Deux Part 2

[Gator]

First, I commend you for not sending her back in the middle of this mess.


Call the USCIS and discuss with the pertinent office.  While asking them your questions, also ask if there is some US directive about UA citizens getting an extension during the crisis.


If forced to leave the US, do you have to send her all the way to Moscow.  How about a one week vacation in the DR?

[jone]

Personally, I would call my local Congressional office before I spoke to anyone else regarding her visa.  That way, you can make any calls with a 'helper' on the phone.  It is amazing how much extra effort you get from government employees when there is interest from an elected official. 

Moreover, that's what the home offices are there for.  To help constituents with concerns with the Federal Government.

Just my two copper Lincoln coins.

[Wayne]

I don't think USCIS has anything to do with tourist's visas. I think you need to deal with the State Department. You could also check the US Embassy website in Kyiv.

[Wayne]

Here is some information from the Department of State website:
 
 Extending Your Stay   See Extend Your Stay on the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) website to learn about requesting and extension of your stay beyond the date indicated on your admission stamp or paper Form I-94, Arrival/Departure Record.
You must depart the United States on or before the date indicated on your admission stamp or paper Form I-94, unless your request to extend your stay is approved by USCIS.
Failure to depart the United States on time will result in you being out of status. Under U.S. law, visas of travelers who are out of status are automatically voided (section 222(g) of the Immigration and Nationality Act). If you had a multiple-entry visa and it was voided due to you being out of status, it will not be valid for future entries into the United States.
Failure to depart the United States on time may also result in you being ineligible for visas you may apply for in the future. Review Visa Denials and Ineligibilities and Waivers: Laws to learn more.

[Jumper]

MIL has a 5 year tourist visa and she must leave America within 6 months of entering anytime during those 5 years in order to stay in compliance.  I don't think she has to go back home as long as she leaves America to stay in compliance. I was thinking about buying a ticket to Moscow and have her come back to America next or same day. Returning that quickly, will that violate her tourist visa and if not, will it hurt her chances to renew her tourist visa when this one expires?

Find out the particulars.
Either by directly contacting the government agencies involved or a qualified immigration attorney.

If she merely needs to leave, for a hsort time, 
then  i think there would be easier choices than those you considered (Canada needs a visa, even though its close for you)

Something relatively close and easy flight-

Mexico -an online tourist visa (free) , its an easy application ,
i just did it a couple weeks ago. put in her info, print out the approval.done.

a bit further
DR- entry visa available upon entry at the airport ($15 ? something like that)


Either is a lot closer than Moscow


I understand your concerns, for what its worth, my extended family in Ukraine reports no troubles at all in their area -south western Ukraine, and they do not trust the Ukrainian news reports (that's usual)

[Wayne]

Billy, I don't think outright war is going to break out in Ukraine. But if it does, it could last for years!
 
An extension on the B-2 visa I 94 form might not do your MIL any good!
 
Look into applying for ASYLUM on the USCIS website. How does your MIL's political views compare with what is going on in Ukraine? Would she be in danger because of her political views?

[BillyB]

I think you need to call the us embassy and ask the question of what is the required/ recommended time in between visits.

Call the USCIS and discuss with the pertinent office.
 

I was afraid someone was going to say "call". Long wait times if I'm lucky to get a person on the other end!


I just found a government site that explains things better. My MIL can't go to Mexico or Canada as Jumper suggested because our government doesn't consider that a new admission into America when she returns but if she leaves to another country other than those two and come back, they consider that a new admission and could grant her another 6 months stay.


Calling a government office for answers won't do me much good because the website clearly states it's the CPB(Customs and Border Patrol) officer that dictates how long a person is to visit America if they're allowed to enter the country at all. Every officer could be different with the discretion they're allowed to use and we won't know the random officer's answer until MIL leaves the country and arrives back in America.


The website says officers are highly suspicious of those who leave the country for a short time and try to get another 6 months stay in America since people tend to abuse tourist visas to live here. Those people may get reduced time to stay here, told to go back home, or even get their visas cancelled. If there is a war in Ukraine, I believe an officer will understand the conditions over there and give my MIL another 6 months.


http://help.cbp.gov/app/answers/detail/a_id/751/kw/B2%20Visa%20duration%20of%20stay/session/L3RpbWUvMTM5MDk0OTQwNi9zaWQvbmJEOFJ4TGw%3D

Personally, I would call my local Congressional office before I spoke to anyone else regarding her visa.

I won't bother my Congressman if I could help myself first. I'll save him for when things get ugly. He won't be able to break the law but he can make some calls and get things done faster if needed.

If forced to leave the US, do you have to send her all the way to Moscow.  How about a one week vacation in the DR?

DR is a great idea and my wife and MIL likes your suggestion. It's closer, cheaper and more fun than Moscow. I will send her to DR before she's scheduled to fly to Kiev. If she returns to America and the CBP officer doesn't give her new admission into America, she will have her ticket to fly back to Ukraine as scheduled. My MIL has asked me not to buy her the tickets to DR unless war breaks out. She wants to and will return Ukraine if the situation stays the same or gets better.

Look into applying for ASYLUM on the USCIS website. How does your MIL's political views compare with what is going on in Ukraine? Would she be in danger because of her political views?

MIL is from West Ukraine and like most people who live there, her political views are completely opposite from the current administration's. I have considered Asylum as an option if war breaks out.

[BC]

BillyB,

IMHO, after 11 years it's not so much about how involved your MIL is involved in your relationship but more about how she is out of your life.

.. unless you're in MILF mode. (I don't make judgements on that aspect).. if so what the heck. LOL

[Steamer]

The website says officers are highly suspicious of those who leave the country for a short time and try to get another 6 months stay in America since people tend to abuse tourist visas to live here. Those people may get reduced time to stay here, told to go back home, or even get their visas cancelled. If there is a war in Ukraine, I believe an officer will understand the conditions over there and give my MIL another 6 months.

Immigration officers understand nothing of the sort. They do understand if she overstays her visa and she will likely never get another. Make certain that she goes back on time and next time have her apply for a multi entry visa.


Remember, immigration is not your friend. They are looking for any reason to deny a foreign national entry to the US. They also don't like you because (in their minds) you're trying to help someone stay here illegally. Trying to game the system will guarantee an end to her visas.

[jone]

Excellent points, Steamer.

Billy will do as Billy always does:  Things his own way. 

But people on here should read the above post.  The immigration service is in the business of ferreting out any people that should not be here in this country, for whatever reason.  Imagine the toughest cop on your block.  That is the typical mentality of immigration officials. 

Once a person is on the 'bad' list, they will almost never be awarded re-entry.

[Jumper]

Billy-

As mentioned prior, I'd urge you to contact a qualified immigration attorney on this matter.

Yes it seems very clear for a 6 month tourist visa, what can or cant be done regarding visiting bordering countries, and other countries, as far as reentry.

Perhaps  you've found something that clearly defines the requirements every 6 months on a 5 year  Tourist visa..and in regards to visiting other countries besides the residents home country to meet that obligation.
If so , share it here or the visa section?
I'm sure some members could use the info now or in the future.

[Wayne]

Security Message for U.S. Citizens: Potential Risks of Travel to Ukraine Due to the Ongoing Political Unrest and Violent Clashes between Police and Protesters
January 25, 2014

[/size] The U.S. Department of State alerts U.S. citizens of the potential risks of travel to Ukraine due to the ongoing political unrest and violent clashes between police and protesters. Protest-related violence, particularly in Kyiv, has escalated sharply since January 19, resulting in several deaths and hundreds of injuries. Protesters have occupied Kyiv’s Independence Square and several government buildings in Kyiv and other cities throughout Ukraine. Groups of young men, popularly called "titushky," have attacked journalists and protesters and committed other random acts of violence in Kyiv and other cities. U.S. citizens are advised to avoid all protests, demonstrations, and large gatherings. U.S. citizens whose residences or hotels are located in the vicinity of the protests are cautioned to leave those areas or prepare to remain indoors, possibly for several days, should clashes occur. This travel alert expires on March 24, 2014.
The situation in Ukraine is unpredictable and could change quickly. Further violent clashes between police and protesters in Kyiv and other cities are possible. The location and nature of demonstrations and methods employed by the police can change quickly and without warning. Protest sites have drawn large crowds, and protesters have blocked roads in Kyiv and other cities and may do so again.
Protests in Kyiv began on November 21, 2013, following the Government of Ukraine’s announcement that it was suspending preparations to sign an association agreement with the European Union. On November 30, police severely injured several demonstrators in an attempt to remove them from Independence Square. Protesters retaliated by occupying Kyiv’s Independence Square, City Administration Building (i.e. City Hall) and other buildings. Since then, there have been several clashes between protestors and police resulting in numerous injuries. On January 19, violence escalated with protesters and police using stones, Molotov cocktails, tear gas and rubber bullets. Several demonstrators have been killed and hundreds on both sides injured.
U.S. citizens who travel to or reside in Ukraine are strongly advised to enroll in the State Department’s Smart Traveler Enrollment Program (STEP). U.S. citizens without Internet access may enroll directly with the nearest U.S. embassy or consulate. By enrolling, you make it easier for the U.S. embassy or consulate to contact you in case of an emergency.
Unless otherwise indicated in a public announcement, the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv is open for all routine American Citizens Services by appointment. U.S. citizens needing emergency assistance do not need an appointment. The American Citizens Services Unit of the U.S. Embassy is located at 4 A.I. Sikorsky St. (formerly Tankova) in Kyiv, and can be reached by calling +380-44-521-5000 or by e mailing kyivacs@state.gov. The Embassy’s after-hours emergency telephone number is +380-44-521-5000.
Current information on safety and security can also be obtained on the Department of State’s website or by calling 1-888-407-4747 toll-free in the United States or a regular toll line at 1-202-501-4444 for callers from other countries. These numbers are available from 8:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time, Monday through Friday (except U.S. federal holidays).
U.S. citizens should also consult the Department of State’s Country Specific Information for Ukraine and stay up-to-date by bookmarking our Bureau of Consular Affairs website, which contains the current Travel Warnings and Travel Alerts, as well as the Worldwide Caution. Follow us on Twitter and the Bureau of Consular Affairs page on Facebook as well

[BillyB]

IMHO, after 11 years it's not so much about how involved your MIL is involved in your relationship but more about how she is out of your life.

Hope it never lasts that long but MIL is a good housekeeper. My house has never looked so good.

.. unless you're in MILF mode. (I don't make judgements on that aspect).. if so what the heck. LOL

You promise you won't make judgments? Great! I'll tell you all about it! LOL

Billy will do as Billy always does:  Things his own way. 

You're right. But I'm humble enough to know I'm not always right but fortunately I'm smart enough to know I'm never wrong. My wife likes my stubbornness when it comes to making decisions. I also try to educate her on why I think the way I do so she feels I'm looking for her approval.

Imagine the toughest cop on your block.  That is the typical mentality of immigration officials. 

My MIL had a nice immigration officer when she entered into the country but she was also carrying a letter from my Congressman.


As I said in the last post, MIL will go back to Ukraine as scheduled if the situation remains the same or get better. IF there is war, I will send her to the Dominican Republic so she can potentially get another 6 months stay here upon her return. The CBP officer has discretion on what he can do. It is easy for him to give her another 6 months. But if he doesn't and sends her back to Ukraine, I will contact an immigration attorney to apply for asylum and my Congressman to educate those officers on how bad it is for America's image worldwide, if somebody leaks this to the press, that we're sending non combatant women into a war zone. I think immigration officers are smarter than to be azzholes in situation of war.

Billy-

As mentioned prior, I'd urge you to contact a qualified immigration attorney on this matter.

Yes it seems very clear for a 6 month tourist visa, what can or cant be done regarding visiting bordering countries, and other countries, as far as reentry.

Perhaps  you've found something that clearly defines the requirements every 6 months on a 5 year  Tourist visa..and in regards to visiting other countries besides the residents home country to meet that obligation.
If so , share it here or the visa section?
I'm sure some members could use the info now or in the future.

The government website link I posted earlier is the best I found on this issue. Other people's experiences I read reflects what that site has said. The amount of years a person gets a tourist visa for is based on country and the interview with the embassy. The length of stay in America can't exceed 6 months but entries can be unlimited. The CBP officer is the one who dictates how long a person can stay in America at the time of entry. As to be expected, they don't like people who leave America for a few days and return right away.

[lordtiberius]

Would I hang out with BillyB?  Prolly not.  But do I respect him for bringing is MIL and his wife to the Say Shah Ahh, youbethcya. 

[BillyB]

Would I hang out with BillyB?  Prolly not.  But do I respect him for bringing is MIL and his wife to the Say Shah Ahh, youbethcya.

When I wrote an earlier "Life Changes" thread, I said if I had a choice, I'd rather be respected than liked by the women I date because with respect, comes love. Keep in mind, I'm married so don't get any funny ideas LT.




I don't want to get into a political debate in this thread since we currently have enough threads that talk Ukraine already but I'll share some of what's been talked about in my household.


When I came to know my wife, she told me what many people in the world believed, that Obama was going to be a good President and that America sticks their nose into other countries business. My wife's views are conservative and I understand that better than she. I realize she doesn't understand Obama's policies and the lack of reputation he had at the time, and is just repeating what she's heard from others, so I told her lets wait and judge Obama when he finishes his presidency. My wife is learning fast and growing pertaining to politics and now understands Obama as he's earning his reputation.


I told her I know people that complains America doesn't do enough in the world. If her country is ever in trouble, she will want America to stick their nose in Ukraine's business. There are people who complained why America took so long to enter into WWI, WWII against both Germany and Japan, and the war in the former Yugoslavia. They wonder why we didn't finish the job in Vietnam and the first Gulf War. Lots of people died while they waited for us to come and sometimes when we did come, we didn't finish the job and allowed brutal dictators to remain in power and allow them to slaughter those who remain that didn't agree with their dictator's politics. Some people complain America sticks their nose into too many people's business, some complain because we don't do enough, but one thing is certain, America is the first to be called on when a nation needs help.


During Ukraine's protests my wife and MIL were worried that their would be a civil war. My wife watched Putin take a more active role in solving problems in Ukraine than Obama. My wife likes Obama as a person more but, she respects Putin more for being a real leader and for going after his desires and achieving his goals.


Now that Russia is sticking it's nose in Ukraine, she still respects Putin more as a man of action while considers Obama is a man of talk. She had thoughts that maybe it's best America and Europe talk and not provoke war. I told her talk is only good if all sides want to do it. Putin is glad the West is talking while he's doing. I told her Russia never starts a war with America when America puts their troops out on the field. They won't fight a battle they can't win. Kennedy used Navy ships to blockade Cuba to prevent the Soviets from putting missiles there. Only then the Soviets backed down. I told her Putin is going to keep marching as long as he knows the West isn't going to use military force. He'd prefer to achieve his goals without firing a bullet though.


My wife understands Crimea used to be part of Russia and there are many there who want to be with Russia. She says it's okay for people to be with who they want to be. I told her we are dealing with today's legal borders and although people are free to leave, they aren't free to take the land with them. A state can't leave America, a county can't leave a state, a city can't leave a county, and as a home owner, you can't take your property from the city. There has to be an agreement of all parties to separate as was in the former Yugoslavia. Putin will take over Ukraine by votes using the motto, "It's not who casts the vote, it's who counts the vote that matters." Russia, not the UN, will be there to make sure all elections are fair. As some of you know, there are two choices on the ballot, one to have Crimea join Russia, and the other is to join Ukraine restoring the 1992 Constitution. Both choices are a win for Russia since there is no choice to join Ukraine with it's current government.


My wife is afraid of war and thinks it's better to be under Putin's feet than have people die. I told her it's better to die on your feet than live on your knees. Most people don't want war. America, Russia and some European countries promised Ukraine's security in the 90's in exchange for giving up the third largest stockpile in the world. Ukraine has given a lot to make America and the world a safer place but I'm disappointed Obama isn't putting troops in Ukraine to uphold America's promise. Obama is making this world a dangerous place. Iran and North Korea are watching this. Bush went into Iraq to vigorously pursue nuclear weapons. It scared Ghaddafi enough to give up his pursuit of nuclear weapons and become part of the world community only to watch the nations he befriended support the rebels who overthrew him. Now Ukraine is getting little support. If I were Iran and North Korea, I'd call the promise of security by the West in exchange for giving up the pursuit of nuclear weapons BS. They will get their nukes and they are the two most likely countries that will use them making it highly likely nuclear weapons will be used again in the future. Obama's foreign policies will make this world a more dangerous place.


My wife understands now Obama has no balls so she's hoping sanctions will work. I told her Russia isn't North Korea and will not suffer much. Germany after WWI was destroyed completely besides economically, had to pay reparations to the nations they fought, and still became a world power in just over 20 years after the war. Russia is better off now than Germany was after WWI. They have their own resources and manpower and can sustain on their own without outside help. If North Korea can survive, Russia can do much, much better and even hurt the economy of those nations who refuse to do business with them. Russia will also encourage countries like Iran to give us more trouble. Obama's foreign policies will make this world a more dangerous place.


Unlike most people, I don't see what's going on as good or evil. It's human nature to go after one's interests and Putin is going after what he thinks is best for Russia and take care of his friends. I wouldn't view it bad if America put troops in Ukraine to protect our interests and those who want to be our friends. I view Obama as weak since Putin has outmaneuvered him in Ukraine. Since coming into presidency, Obama tried to befriend Putin in an effort to make this world a better place. He misread Putin and needs to realize some people respond better if you carry a big stick and say few words. Now a lot of former Soviet bloc nations are living in fear. Russia is learning the West actions are weak and may continue to advance past Ukraine and war may be inevitable on a much larger scale. Remember how Hilter proceeded up till WWII started? He was taking over land before firing bullets. Well, this years Nobel Peace Prize nominee, Putin, will be challenging former Peace Prize winner Obama in an interesting match up lacking peace. Who votes for these guys anyway?



MIL is back in Ukraine. After Ukraine averted a civil war, she felt it was time to go back home against my warnings Russia is not happy. Interestingly she thinks Yanukovych would slaughter more Ukrainians than Putin. So far she's right since Putin tends to take over Ukraine by way of controlled elections.


We cancelled her original flight earlier to Ukraine due to the problems in Ukraine. We went to the airport and I got a special pass to go back through security to talk to the big bosses at Homeland security. Since nobody is supposed to go past security unless they have a boarding pass so TSA agents thought I was some VIP. My wife was impressed on how I got results. I went to the Border patrol office and I talked to a guy who had what looked like the rank of a lieutenent about the situation and possibly having my MIL going to the Dominican Republic for a few days and returning but I don't want them to suspect she's living in America or violating her tourist visa. An older American man, who had the rank of major, overheard us and came over saying he has family in Ukraine and understand the situation over there and assured me his border patrol agents won't suspect her "flag polling". He said although 6 month is default, they have the power to give someone on a tourist visa a year stay. If things get dangerous in Ukraine again, I will have MIL go to Poland or Moldova and catch a flight back home and give her a letter requesting a years stay in America. On another note some of the gifts for relatives and friends were stolen out of her bags in Lviv. There are a lot of things that need to change in Ukraine besides the government.


Another option I considered for MIL was to extend her tourist visa but it was not a desirable route to go. Tourist visas don't get extended if your reason is because it's dangerous back home. You must say you're enjoying your stay and want to visit more places according to the advice given to me of one officer. One can legally stay in America while the extension is processing, which takes six months, but if one is denied, they automatically are in violation of their visa if they're here 3 months past the original date they were supposed to leave the country. So my MIL would have her 5 year tourist visa revoked if she was denied an extension.

[BillyB]

I was wanting to finish up my Las Vegas road trip and post some more photos but I'll hold off since there seems to be a lot of strain on the forum's capacity from all it's activity of late.


Last month I gave my wife a special Valentines Day gift. I took her to a live Air Supply concert. She became a fan of Air Supply last year when she overheard me listening to 80's music on Youtube. For as old as those guys are, they were rocking and moving around on the stage pretty good. We enjoyed the concert.


MIL has been reporting from Ivano-Frankivsk everyday. People there are having second thoughts about aligning with the West. They don't like Putin but they are turned off by the West's weakness.

[Dewed]

A single post or 2 isn't going to make or break anything, but if you want to include pictures, kindly use a service like Photobucket to host them.

[Misha]

They don't like Putin but they are turned off by the West's weakness.

I will make a generalization and say that being strong is often seen by Russians as acting aggressively, rashly and impulsively. This is seen by many as being "strong" yet in many ways it is not strength.


The West is "seen" as weak because it does not immediately react aggressively, but this overlooks that in democracies, imperfect as they may be, it takes times to come to a social consensus. Putin centralized power in Russia where he could organize a referendum, the approval of the constitutional court, a vote in the duma and a vote in the upper chamber all in less than one week. There is no real democracy that could do that. Is is a sign of weakness? Or a sign of sanity?


What will hurt Russia won't be the impulsive actions, but the slow and sure changes that will certainly take place. Germany and other European countries have been slowly and surely turning to other sources for natural gas. Yes, crowds haven't been marching in the streets, but bureaucrats and government officials are certainly looking for ways of gradually weaning themselves off Russian oil and gas. I expect that in the coming year, if Russia keeps it up, there will be many LNG terminals built in Canada and the United States and that the United States will begin exporting oil to bring down prices. Nobody will hold a press conference to say, we are doing this to crush Russia, but it will do more to kneecap Russia's economy than any brash, "brave" action would ever do. If Russia loses Europe as a market and is forced to build pipelines to China and China will know that Russia is a captive supplier, then China will dictate prices (if GAZPROM doesn't go belly up before it builds pipelines from the Arctic to Asia).

[jone]

Yeah, Russia is gonna get 'Fracked" for it's annexation of Ukraine territory.  Good one Misha.

[Gator]

The West is "seen" as weak because it does not immediately react aggressively, but this overlooks that in democracies, imperfect as they may be, it takes times to come to a social consensus. Putin centralized power in Russia where he could organize a referendum, the approval of the constitutional court, a vote in the duma and a vote in the upper chamber all in less than one week. There is no real democracy that could do that. Is is a sign of weakness? Or a sign of sanity?

Good lesson in civics.  Never having lived in a democratic government, Russians may not appreciate this fact.

What will hurt Russia won't be the impulsive actions, but the slow and sure changes that will certainly take place.

Yes, the economic war.   The Soviet Union lost such a war 25 years ago and will lose this one too.   When your largest customer is captive, why encourage them to seek alternative sources. 

[Muzh]

I will make a generalization and say that being strong is often seen by Russians as acting aggressively, rashly and impulsively. This is seen by many as being "strong" yet in many ways it is not strength.


The West is "seen" as weak because it does not immediately react aggressively, but this overlooks that in democracies, imperfect as they may be, it takes times to come to a social consensus. Putin centralized power in Russia where he could organize a referendum, the approval of the constitutional court, a vote in the duma and a vote in the upper chamber all in less than one week. There is no real democracy that could do that. Is is a sign of weakness? Or a sign of sanity?


What will hurt Russia won't be the impulsive actions, but the slow and sure changes that will certainly take place. Germany and other European countries have been slowly and surely turning to other sources for natural gas. Yes, crowds haven't been marching in the streets, but bureaucrats and government officials are certainly looking for ways of gradually weaning themselves off Russian oil and gas. I expect that in the coming year, if Russia keeps it up, there will be many LNG terminals built in Canada and the United States and that the United States will begin exporting oil to bring down prices. Nobody will hold a press conference to say, we are doing this to crush Russia, but it will do more to kneecap Russia's economy than any brash, "brave" action would ever do. If Russia loses Europe as a market and is forced to build pipelines to China and China will know that Russia is a captive supplier, then China will dictate prices (if GAZPROM doesn't go belly up before it builds pipelines from the Arctic to Asia).

Misha, excellent analysis.

[BillyB]

A single post or 2 isn't going to make or break anything, but if you want to include pictures, kindly use a service like Photobucket to host them.

I'll take a look at Photobucket but I really don't want to sign up at other websites. I don't even have an account at twitter and although I once signed up at Facebook, I don't use it. I still have friends and family that are still waiting for me to accept their friendship invitation they sent years ago. If I don't use Photobucket and post photos here, I'll make them much smaller to help out.

I will make a generalization and say that being strong is often seen by Russians as acting aggressively, rashly and impulsively. This is seen by many as being "strong" yet in many ways it is not strength.

I like the way the West does their business overall compared to Russia. I respect Putin and Russia's strength more but that's all I respect.....besides the ladies. But this is Putin's show and maybe respect is all that matters to him since his people admire him for his actions in which could encourage him to get more respect. All the West can do is react to slow down or stop his pursuit of respect. I think it's best to come down hard on Putin because he'll respect that.


My wife told me a young person or even a small nation is usually dependent on someone else or a larger nation. Many Ukrainians didn't feel they could depend on Russia so they looked to the West. The West has shown weakness which shows they may not be reliable in defending their existence. Ukrainians may look back to Russia.


Some nice guys may wonder why they lose girls to bad boys. Maybe those bad boys are more reliable in defending a woman and taking care of ladies? Aligning oneself with good or bad doesn't matter when you have to choose between living and dying besides quality of life.


My wife's relatives back home still have hope for the West. They are hoping America can change Presidents before Putin's next move. My wife is trying to influence my vote and told me to never vote Democrat again.

[Misha]

Yes, the economic war.   The Soviet Union lost such a war 25 years ago and will lose this one too.   When your largest customer is captive, why encourage them to seek alternative sources.

Yes, and Germany is also putting in a lot of money and energy into pushing solar power. Now, in the summer, up to half of the electricity in the afternoon is being produced by solar power. Go to small German towns and you will see building after building with solar panels. Every watt of electricity being produced by solar power is a watt of energy not being produced by burning Russian natural gas. These are all the same factors that brought down OPEC and by extension the Soviet Union that came to rely on oil revenues: reduce demand and expand supplies. As it stands, Russia is spending tens of billions of largely borrowed money to build pipelines to deliver natural gas that soon Europe may not need.... A sure recipe for economic disaster if ever there was one...


http://cleantechnica.com/2013/02/09/germany-solar-power-lessons/

[GQBlues]

Yes, and Germany is also putting in a lot of money and energy into pushing solar power. Now, in the summer, up to half of the electricity in the afternoon is being produced by solar power. Go to small German towns and you will see building after building with solar panels. Every watt of electricity being produced by solar power is a watt of energy not being produced by burning Russian natural gas. These are all the same factors that brought down OPEC and by extension the Soviet Union that came to rely on oil revenues: reduce demand and expand supplies. As it stands, Russia is spending tens of billions of largely borrowed money to build pipelines to deliver natural gas that soon Europe may not need.... A sure recipe for economic disaster if ever there was one...


http://cleantechnica.com/2013/02/09/germany-solar-power-lessons/

Misha-

The concept is good and well but I think at the present time, complete reliance on photovoltaic technology as an energy source to produce electricity, for a country the size of Germany, is still a pipe dream unless the powers that be can find a much better way to streamline it and triple the outage at the same time. It's just not feasible at the present time and maybe not in the near future.

As of 2011, of the various ways Germany generated their electricity, less than 3% came as a result of photovoltaic technology means. Little to no reliance on oil and only 14% came from NG. Nearly a quarter came from brown coal, or Lignite. Almost 50% from coal (hard/brown). The US's main source, like Germany, is still coal.

http://www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/p/pow-gen-ger.htm

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3

We are part of a band of companies that are installing/installed massive amounts of panels (thermal/photovoltaic) in the Mojave desert in hundreds of square miles and while it can support all the electricity needs of a good size city - that city is not anywhere the size of Los Angeles, much less a country like Germany. In the meantime, signs of serious environmental issues are starting to rear its ugly head and changing the face of the Mojaves as we know it.

http://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/take-a-look-at-the-worlds-largest-solar-thermal-farm-91577483/?no-ist

The site you provided is a nice little marketing presentation. And while the concept and potential is definitely promising, the technology is just not quite there yet to be blowing on the trumpet it can fully replace the same production of NG / coal, or worst, both.

 

[BillyB]

These are all the same factors that brought down OPEC and by extension the Soviet Union that came to rely on oil revenues: reduce demand and expand supplies.

Putin has already factored in what you said and what everyone else has been saying. Even if the West produces our own fossil fuels or use alternate energy sources, China and other countries will be Russia's customers.


Russian people are smart and they can succeed without the west. Russia almost lost the war during WWII and with a strong leader, emerged a superpower right after. Not only can they survive, they can thrive for decades without outside assistance. The difference between USSR and modern day Russia is that Russia has MASSIVE amounts of fossil fuels that could carry their economy for a long haul.


We think Russia won't make money because they'll have to sell oil cheap if we don't buy from them. Putin's most important economic ally is mayhem. All Putin has to do is create problems in the world and the price of oil goes up which in turn increases his profits and badly hurt our economies because we'll have to pay more at the pump with rippling effects that increase costs in everything we buy. Russia makes their best profits with wars in the Middle East. Putin may encourage Venezuela to start a fight. Obama has some trips planned in the Middle East. He knows what can happen. Israeli citizens are pressuring their government to do something about Iran. Obama's vision of a more peaceful world on his watch is not going to happen.


Putin's propaganda machine so far is working. His popularity among Russian's are at a 3 year high and the hate for Americans are at an all time high according to an independent pollster, The Levada Center, in Russia. Putting sanctions on Russia is going to get Russian citizens pissed off even more at America, not make them pressure Putin to back off.