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Author Topic: Marriage/Meeting stats  (Read 7887 times)

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Offline viking

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« on: March 15, 2006, 06:11:53 PM »
Does any one know about how many marriages actual occur between an American male and an RW?There are a few hundred people here discussing all sorts of things and more on other forums. But there are a million guys on the internet chatting away with RWs.

What are the odds that a nice looking woman will actually get to meet a guy she is trying to develop a relationship with on the internet, then what are the chances something will occur between them that is more than a sexual encounter? How many guys actually file for a K1?

I would like to hear from some women about how easy/hard it is for a late 30 something, attractive woman to find a good guy. I know what it is like from my side of the fence.
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Viking: But you still need to walk along the beach to find it.

Offline Turboguy

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« Reply #1 on: March 15, 2006, 07:48:55 PM »
A few of the statistics I have heard for what they are worth are that about 2% of the guys who write to these gals ever make a visit to the FSU.  I have also heard that there are about 125,000 women listed in the MOB sites and about 5,000 K1 and K3 interviews in that part of the world a year.  Maybe someone else can do better but hopefully that is a start.

Offline NickH

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« Reply #2 on: March 29, 2006, 08:48:43 AM »
Quote from: Turboguy
A few of the statistics I have heard for what they are worth are that about 2% of the guys who write to these gals ever make a visit to the FSU.  I have also heard that there are about 125,000 women listed in the MOB sites and about 5,000 K1 and K3 interviews in that part of the world a year.  Maybe someone else can do better but hopefully that is a start.


Hi

I'm currently doing some research on foreign couples falling in love. I have been looking at marriages between British men and women from the FSU. I was wondering if you can recall where you came across the stats you mentioned in your post as I would be interested in having a look at the original research.

Many thanks



 


Offline Rvrwind

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« Reply #3 on: March 29, 2006, 04:31:38 PM »
There is no hard data research that I am aware of. Most of what is thrown out there is by guys like me who are in the buisness & see firsthand the trends in the industry. I don't know of anybody that has done any real research & could give hard facts that could be backed up with accurate data.

All I can say is out of every 100 guys writing emails to these ladies over the internet somewhere between 2-5 actually show up in Russia. For the rest well I don't think it takes a lot of imagination to know why they are even writing to them.

Thats the nature of the beast.

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Offline BC

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« Reply #4 on: March 30, 2006, 06:21:44 AM »
There are a lot of immigration statistics out there but are not detailed enough to draw any conclusions.

I believe I also saw figures of roughly 5000 K1's from FSU countries per year but remember this figure would likely include FSU folks that have immigrated to the US, have permanent residency and are now bringing GF/BF over. 

I think somwhere in the 2500 per year range would be pretty accurate.

If I run across the stats again will post them here.

Offline Bruce

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« Reply #5 on: March 30, 2006, 08:34:19 AM »
http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/yearbook/2003/table08D.xls

My view on the numbers presented above from Russia is that in 2003 a total of 88 people entered the USA under the category of "family sponsored preferences," 2,562 entered as "immediate relatives of US citizens under the spousal category," 1,738 were listed under the category "refugee and asylee adjustments," 966 are listed in the "other" category.  If you look at comparable numbers for Ukraine you see that there were none listed under the 'family sponsored preferences category because the "disclosure standards were not met," there are 1353 listed under the "immediate relatives of US citizens under the spousal category," 3,350 under the "refugee and aylee adjustments" cateogry, and 1,807 under the category "other."  My guess is the other category has the K-1 visas, the majority of which are women.  How many ultimately remain in the USA and for how long they stay married is anyone's guess.  Bruno had some good statistical inferences.  Many K-1's go back home, but that may be just to visit and then to come back ie. no certainty if gone for good ie. not married prior to the end of the 90 day period etc. 

 

In any event, the numbers are low and like Rver said above, no real long term statistics seem to exist.  My guess is the number of guys visiting who write is low and of the guys who write or do not write and go, the numbers filing K-1 visas where the girl actually comes to the USA is very high.  What percentage of the K-1's do not get married, I'd guess about 40%.  Of the K-1's who marry I'd guess 70% stay married at least two years and nobody knows real statistics, but I'd guess 50% of the 60% who marry on K-1's are married five years or longer.  I repeat, no real numbers to back up my guesses, just experience reading boards.   In any event, the over all numbers of girls comming to the USA on fiance visas from the FSU is a drop in the bucket.  The number illegally crossing the border from Mexico into the USA each hour certainly is higher.
« Last Edit: March 30, 2006, 08:36:00 AM by Bruce »
"A word is dead when it is said, some say.  I say it just begins to live that day."  Emily Dickinson

Offline Bruno

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« Reply #6 on: March 30, 2006, 11:21:53 AM »
Quote from: Bruce
Of the K-1's who marry I'd guess 70% stay married at least two years and nobody knows real statistics, but I'd guess 50% of the 60% who marry on K-1's are married five years or longer.
With only 17.7% of K1 who last more than one year, it is far from your guess of 70%... but if i good remember, after one year, the divorce rate is lower that the national one ( 49% for USA )... So, family with foreign partner break very fast in the early stage but these who stay together last more long that local couple...

Offline Bruce

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« Reply #7 on: March 30, 2006, 11:31:00 AM »
Bruno, thanks for clearing it up a bit.  Its good to know that foreign couples who do not break up early in their relationship statistically stand a better chance of lasting longer than the average American marriage. 

Some holes in your numbers is that you do not have # of Russian K-1's, Ukrainian K-1's, Philiipine K-1's etc.  There very well could be large differences within the various groups of K-1 girls that skew data one way or the other etc. 

On your K-1 leaving data, I wonder if those that left within six months and those that left within one year divorced or did not divorce their husbands.  Could they have been travelling to the FSU or wherever they came on vacation, or was it a permanent exit out of the USA? 

The K-3 data you present seems more damning, but the same question remains ie. Did a woman who "left" the USA go on vacation / visit family or were they divorced and returning home?
"A word is dead when it is said, some say.  I say it just begins to live that day."  Emily Dickinson

Offline Goombah

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« Reply #8 on: March 30, 2006, 11:55:02 AM »
Perhaps the "does leave mean not come back" could be answered by comparing those exit rates to Advanced Parole applications?  Of course, I have no idea where to get that data...

Kevin

Offline Bruno

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« Reply #9 on: March 30, 2006, 12:51:31 PM »
Quote from: Bruce
Bruno, thanks for clearing it up a bit.  Its good to know that foreign couples who do not break up early in their relationship statistically stand a better chance of lasting longer than the average American marriage. 

Maybe because they are couple who have work more for build the relation

Some holes in your numbers is that you do not have # of Russian K-1's, Ukrainian K-1's, Philiipine K-1's etc.  There very well could be large differences within the various groups of K-1 girls that skew data one way or the other etc. 

Sorry Bruce... but it is all i have save from my previous search... cross reference between table is possible... all data needed can be find on the internet... but the analyse of data, build of new table can ask several days of work... not the time now...

On your K-1 leaving data, I wonder if those that left within six months and those that left within one year divorced or did not divorce their husbands.  Could they have been travelling to the FSU or wherever they came on vacation, or was it a permanent exit out of the USA? 

It is permanent exit... in the original stat, it was a delay of 6 month, 1 year and two year... since the difference between one year and two year is not big... it is not important... the 6 month delay don't show these who return during the three month K1 or after marriage... but i guess that the big part is return before the end of K1.

The K-3 data you present seems more damning, but the same question remains ie. Did a woman who "left" the USA go on vacation / visit family or were they divorced and returning home?

Same that from K1... permanent exit... the K3 is a dangerous way for women... They marry a man that she don't really know the true situation in USA... Easy for some looser to impress women in Ukraine by spending a $1000 in two week... marry her... bring her in USA where she discover that the man is really poor, have debt, live in caravan,etc... Don't underestimate the % of real looser who search to marry a foreign women... they are people who cannot find a local women, who lie about real situation... I have know the situation here in Belgium, where a man have use his credit card for finance his marriage with a Poland woman... He was living in little student studio with 3 room ( kitchen, badkamer and one life/sleep place )... and of course, he was without work, living of our social welfare...  A woman is grazy if she marry someone without have visit him before...

Certainly the high % of K3 is due to so looser...


EDIT : No data exist after two year because almost all foreign receive the US nationality... so, they are count like local marriage...
« Last Edit: March 30, 2006, 12:54:00 PM by Bruno »

Offline Voyageur

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« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2006, 04:47:31 AM »
I am pretty sure that leaving the US could mean leaving for a visit under Advanced Parole or with a Green Card. How would the USCIS know if a couple divorced?  By what mechanism?  Conversely, they would know when someone leaves the country via passport control.

Offline Bruno

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« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2006, 11:51:48 AM »
Quote from: Voyageur
Any adjustment of status applicant who leaves the U.S. without advance parole is automatically considered abandoning his/her application for adjustment of status. Such a person will generally not be allowed back in the U.S. The person would have to doconsular processing while remaining out of US. This applies traveling to any place outside US, even going to Canada (even Canadian Niagara Falls) or Mexico or places like Bahamas.
So, without valid official document a foreign can not come back to US... and it seem that US administration will know without problem who is leaving definitively...

Offline catzenmouse

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« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2006, 12:38:03 PM »
Quote from: Bruno
First, when a foreign citizen receive a green card, he is not more a foreign but a American citizen, the categorie change...

Green Card only means that they have legal status to live and work in the US. It does not make them a citizen.

Ken
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Offline Bruno

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« Reply #13 on: April 01, 2006, 02:00:09 AM »
Quote from: catzenmouse
One interesting aspect of American law is that permanent residents are required to carry identification cards, but citizens are not. This is simply a consequence of the fact that citizens are, of course, entitled to more constitutional rights than permanent residents, who are still classified as aliens.
So, green card in US mean alien who have the same duty that US citizen but not the same right... no really good for a perfect integration...

 

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