Lukashenko in Belarus: rebels won't overthrow me

[Larry1]

Over the last week I've had a couple of conversations with people about whether Lukashenko, dictator of Belarus, is missing any sleep wondering if the same thing that happened to Yanukovich in Ukraine could happen to him.  He has made a statement on this topic:

Lukashenko Rules out Ukraine-Style Uprising in Belarus

MINSK, February 24 (RIA Novosti) – Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on Sunday ruled out the possibility of a popular uprising in his country similar to the recent events in Ukraine. "There will be no Maidan in Belarus,” Lukashenko said, using the unofficial term to denote the main protest camp in Kiev’s Independence Square.

He said that although “certain tensions and fears for the future and stability of our state can be perceived in the society,” but it was the “sacred mission” of the government and law-enforcers to “preserve peace and stability in our land.”

“We should learn on other people’s mistakes and prevent even smallest indications of instability in our country. The neighboring Ukraine, which has become an arena for a clash between powerful internal and external forces, should be a lesson for us,” the president said.

The authoritarian leader, who has been in office since 1994, violently dispersed a massive rally protesting against alleged vote fraud in the 2010 presidential elections.
 

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140224/187828836/Lukashenko-Rules-out-Ukraine-Style-Uprising-in-Belarus.html

My guess is that Lukashenko would be much harder to overthrow than Yanukovich was.  Unless there is a massive tidal wave of pubic opinion against him, perhaps caused by a deepening of the country's fiscal crisis, I suspect his security forces can brutally smash any uprising, or even any protest.  And if this were not sufficient force, I suspect his army would follow his orders to fire on the opposition.  They don't call the place "Europe's Last Dictatorship" for nothing. 

[JayH]

One of the issues that could arise in time is when Ukraine gets its act together and makes   real progress with west facing improvements-- can create dissatisfaction in other countries-especially those with much common history.
Hopefully Ukraine can become prosperous sooner rather than later !!

[JayH]

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/why-a-new-ukraine-is-the-kremlins-worst-nightmare-9146751.html

Why a new Ukraine is the Kremlin's worst nightmare
The domino effect of democracy on Russia's border threatens the entire system Putin has built since 2000 - and he will not let it go lightly


   
The details still need to be decided, but the revolutionaries have won in Ukraine. Some elements of the old regime may survive, but that is precisely why the protesters on the “Maidan” (Kiev’s main square) don’t trust the mainstream politicians who claim to be negotiating on their behalf.
The politicians in suits can do the donkey work – writing a new constitution to improve on the old one they have just restored, and trying to save the collapsing economy. But the Maidan leaders in the fatigues and helmets will set the agenda on justice – dismantling the militia and reworking the corrupt legal system, so that the many guilty end up behind bars. And there are credible reports that the snipers who killed more than 70 on Thursday were based in the government buildings that are  already being occupied by protesters combing for evidence. Once the world knows who gave the deadly orders, justice will decapitate the old regime. And the “official”  opposition will be radicalised by the need to compete with the moral authority of the Maidan.

All of which is the Kremlin’s worst nightmare. When the protests started back in November they were about a trade deal with the EU. Russia was ecstatic that it had persuaded Ukraine to walk away from that deal, and was picking off the other states in the EU’s “Eastern Partnership” programme (Armenia caved in September, Georgia and Moldova were  expected to come under enormous pressure in 2014). Russia hoped to drag them into its alternative Eurasian Union instead, which is due to be launched in January 2015.

But this is 10 times worse than Brussels expanding its bureaucracy to Russia’s borders. A real democracy in Ukraine is an existential threat to the entire system that Vladimir Putin has built since 2000. Ironically because Putin is right – most Russians regard Ukraine as a kin state, or not really a different state at all. They are used to stepping in tandem; so if something changes in Ukraine, why not in Russia too? And now the dominoes might fall in the other direction. Other Maidans might appear in other neighbouring states – maybe first in Moldova where the Russia-backed Communist Party was hoping to return to power in elections due in November.

[Muzh]

One of the issues that could arise in time is when Ukraine gets its act together and makes   real progress with west facing improvements-- can create dissatisfaction in other countries-especially those with much common history.
Hopefully Ukraine can become prosperous sooner rather than later !!

I strongly suggest you take off those rose-colored glasses and smell the coffee.

[JayH]

I strongly suggest you take off those rose-colored glasses and smell the coffee.

In your persistent haste to make negative comment  you seem incapable to understand basics--it was  a potential possible scenario--not a statement of fact.  duh !!

[Noch1]

In your persistent haste to make negative comment  you seem incapable to understand basics--it was  a potential possible scenario--not a statement of fact.  duh !!

Anything is possible, they could be offered 200 billion to get them over them hump.
but it will never happen in our lifetime.

[lordtiberius]

Has anyone been to Belarus?  I had one correspondent there early on when I first started looking.  nice girl.

Belarus is a closed society.  It is much harder to subvert than open societies

[tfcrew]

Lukashenko in Belarus..........

When he first entered politics, he was seen as a champion against corruption and was the only deputy to vote against the independence of Belarus from the Soviet Union.

 wikipedia