What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[southernX]

russias military is still building up

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/26/us-ukraine-crisis-usa-idUSBREA2P22120140326

, cant see this as sabre rattling or defensive posturing   myself
more like psychological play to help destabilise before he moves, hoping pro russian militia will spark up or knowing they will as he has set the chess men in the s/east of ukraine with a timeline to kick things off for him

SX

[lonedrake]

My wife has a schoolfriend that now lives in Crimea. According to her the majority of citizens are very happy to be a part of Russia.

Neither my wife nor her friend are happy about the Crimea situation. Her friend does not know if her and her family are going to move out.

 This supports FT's views and it is also what I have felt.  Why would the US get involved in Crimea when the majority of it's citizens would just want to kill us?

 Now the rest of Ukraine? If putin invades I believe the US should send troops in. Sooner of later somebody must stop Putin. Why not as soon as he makes his next move into Ukraine? If he does make that move? 

[southernX]

LD

i think the horse has bolted in regards to crimea , quite plainly no one is realistically suggesting getting involved in a bloody war in what is historically a very difficult landscape to fight on let alone win on if your the invader as ukraine would now be ,

crimea is a lovely place, , im confident in time the locals will regret this change of occupier , time will show the net effect ,

the real issue is the s/east of ukraine and protecting it TODAY /NOW , imho

putinis waiting imo , for his fire to be set properly and then spark it off , swoop in and save the local russian ethnics,

it remains to be seen if that happens what the international community will do , at present it doesnt look like much 

SX

[JayH]

 It is time we stopped praising Ukraine for ‘exercising restraint’?
March 26, 2014, 6:02 p.m. | Ukraine — by Yuriy Onyshkiv
James Sherr

Since Russian troops invaded and took over Crimea, Ukraine’s authorities have seemed largely helpless. The criticism is not easing since many expect that Russia may invade the mainland, citing Russian troops near Ukraine's northeastern borders and Russian President Vladimir Putin's claim that southeastern Ukraine is a traditionally Russian land.



http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine/james-sherr-it-is-time-we-stopped-praising-ukraine-for-exercising-restraint-340991.html

Very good summary in linked article.
As far as Crimea is concerned--Ukraine has more pressing issues to deal with right now( like stopping Russian invasion and takeover) .
The Crimea WILL come back to Ukraine at some point-one way or another.
The anectdotal comments of support or residents--means littlke in any sense--I can show just as many not happy. The other point to note-- chances are that most Crimeans have been grossly mislead and are clueless about what is really going on.

[JayH]

More and more reasons keep coming why the US needs to stop vacillating and do something in a serious way to help Ukraine now.How much more justification is needed?


The newspaper reminds that Obama just a few years ago made the Kyiv rid of enriched uranium.
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/politika/ukrayina-ne-stane-yadernoyu-derzhavoyu-bo-nemaye-materialu-dlya-bombi-time-339558.html

Against the backdrop of the invasion of Russia in Crimea Ukrainian and some Europeans have begun to return to nuclear status of Ukraine deter territorial ambitions of Vladimir Putin.
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/politika/ukrayina-ne-stane-yadernoyu-derzhavoyu-bo-nemaye-materialu-dlya-bombi-time-339558.html

http://tsn.ua/politika/ukrayina-ne-stane-yadernoyu-derzhavoyu-bo-nemaye-materialu-dlya-bombi-time-339558.html

[JayH]

Can Russia withstand the cost of being an international  pariah. Time is running out for Putin and Russians to wake up to the fact that they are about to start going backwards( again) compared to the rest of the world-- and how it could have been for them.Putin & cronies are smugly  crowing about "acquiring" Crimea-- but will the cost sink them and Russia ?
The sceptics of economic sanctions having effect need to look now-see the potential of the damage it will do to Russia permanently.


Quoting--
"Investors try to stay away from those against whom the United States and EU imposed sanctions.
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/groshi/investiciyni-fondi-skorochuyut-aktivi-v-rosiyi-cherez-sankciyi-342069.html
A few days after the U.S. and the EU entered a second round of sanctions against twenty citizens of Russia and Russian banks, investors began to gently treat Russian companies and their stocks. According to the  Financial Times , the long-term consequences of the aggression of Russia against Ukraine may affect the investment climate and security. Unlike the first round of sanctions, the second wave related to big businessmen who own the largest companies of Russia and traded on stock exchanges in London and New York. They sell their shares to American and British institutional investors. Investment funds are worried that their investments through economic sanctions are not justified and gradually begin to reduce its assets in Russia. They prefer to stay away from those who are in the "black list" of Washington and Brussels. In particular, the gas company "Novatek", a large media group "CCC" from the listing in New York and infrastructure company "Mostotrest" with a listing in London."
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/groshi/investiciyni-fondi-skorochuyut-aktivi-v-rosiyi-cherez-sankciyi-342069.html

http://tsn.ua/groshi/investiciyni-fondi-skorochuyut-aktivi-v-rosiyi-cherez-sankciyi-342069.html

[JayH]

If the west wants to hurt Putin's Russia - it is vulnerable to sanctions. Economic weakness caused the collapse of the Soviet Union a quarter of a century ago and – the self-enrichment of the oligarchs apart – not much has changed since. Energy exports to the rest of the world pay for imports of machines and consumer goods. The population is ageing and there has been little industrial diversification.

So, if the west really wants to hurt Vladimir Putin it should slap an oil embargo on Russia similar to that used against Iran. A drop in oil exports would mean Russia would not be able to afford German cars, French wine and Italian designer clothes.tin, could Saudi Arabia do its dirty work?
Europe depends on Russian oil and gas exports, so an embargo may not be practical. But there is another way to apply pressure
http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/mar/26/west-wants-hurt-putin-could-saudi-arabia-dirty-work

[stilllooking]

I really question what the 'West' would do should Russia invade Ukraine. I am in no way sure the bigger nations can get enough support to put troops on the ground. All conflicts participated in by the US/UK/Nato in the last few years (open conflicts, not talking about covert operations) have always had the excuse of the fight against terrorism. The western population is sick and tired of seeing their people die many miles away from their own country for a threat that is very hard to judge, and as troops leave those countries it is also hard to see what those military interventions have done to improve the situation in those countries (and that goes all the way back to the Korean conflict). In many cases one rotten leader has just been replaced by another rotten leader, and persecutions have gone from one ethnic group to another ethnic group. Obviously with Russia being a permanent member of the UN there is no chance of hell of any resolution being passed by the UN that would allow the use of force, and you could question if the security council would even approve a peacekeeping mission.

Economic sanctions may bite, but, how often have economic sanctions had the desired effect? Often they are even used to create even more propganda and hatred towards the 'West'. Economic sanctions rarely actually affect the people who are in power, unless you take a very long term view (say 10-20 years) but that does not help Ukraine now if there is an invasion. The sanctions are purely symbolic and the west will be careful to implement any sanctions that will affect their own economies too greatly, the English government has no interest in displacing wealthy Russian from Londongrad, stopping Russians from using the UK courts and Sollicitors and Barristers to fight their business battles or to stop Russian money being used to buy UK assets and being spent at hotels, airports and shops. You could argue economic sanctions worked against South Africa, but how long before any changes started happening there after sanctions were applied? How long have sanctions been in place against Iran?

I can't help get the feeling that the Ukrainian people are being used as pawns in a high stakes game of chess, and that the people playing the game really could not care less what happens to the pawns. Putin made a bold move into Crimea, then paused and awaited the response of his opponents. I don't think he has been impressed and is now contemplating which next move will give him the path of least resistance to getting the result he wants from the game, though I am unsure what his true goal is.

[Muzh]

I really question what the 'West' would do should Russia invade Ukraine. I am in no way sure the bigger nations can get enough support to put troops on the ground.
 

Ah, my friend. It is not a matter of IF, it is a matter of WHEN. You can bet you last coin that when you have a Russian army walking into all these frozen conflicts, there will be a response. Either that or might as well give the world to Putler.
 
Sound familiar?
 
Anyway,   
 
 

[lordtiberius]

ft you can attack me personally but you can't attack my ideas or my prognosises. 

[BC]

I used to hate history... but as time and current events pass over the last 20 years or so I became much more interested.

Looking back at recent history the King of invading sovereign countries has been the US, even when not supported by international law.

That Putin would like to show he can take a few crumbs here and there is par for the course, even intelligent considering the precedents....

Just IMHO..

[Muzh]

I used to hate history... but as time and current events pass over the last 20 years or so I became much more interested.

Looking back at recent history the King of invading sovereign countries has been the US, even when not supported by international law.

That Putin would like to show he can take a few crumbs here and there is par for the course, even intelligent considering the precedents....

Just IMHO..

The last time I looked the US was still 50 states and their assorted colonies are still the same. 
 
So, how's Italy BC? You've been absent for a while.
 
Hope life is still good for you, bud.

[BC]

The last time I looked the US was still 50 states and their assorted colonies are still the same. 
 
So, how's Italy BC? You've been absent for a while.
 
Hope life is still good for you, bud.

Muzh,

plugging right along..   Italy is well... Italy.. controlled chaos and that's about it.

The US invaded Afghanistan (IMHO rightly so with international backing) and couldn't handle it.  Also invaded Iraq and couldn't handle it either (remember it would only cost 50 BN)  A few trillion later and more to come we're withdrawing with nothing in hand.

At least Putin has bit off what he can chew.. a bit here and there but in the end with little life lost and little cost despite sanctions.

There is a difference between playing in your own back yard and that of others... a lesson still to be learned by the west.

End game.. +1 for Putin. 0 for the West.

[Muzh]

At least Putin has bit off what he can chew.. a bit here and there but in the end with little life lost and little cost despite sanctions.

Little cost?
 
Consider this. This whole thing may explode in Putin's face. First, China may have to choose between siding with Russia OR censuring Russia. I think if the Chinese want to invade Tawian it will get dicey either way they go. However, the Chinese economy depends on the US economy. Many people falsely believe that China "owns" the US. Good luck with that. Reality is, if they pissed the Americans and there are trade sanctions, who's economy do you think is going to tank first? Who are the Chinese going to sell all their garbage, to the ever shrinking Russian populatio whose net income will be disappearing when the oil glut hits next year? So, chalk China on "this" side.
 
Next, the grand Sino-Russian trade market. Uh, never mind. See above.
 
The obvious. The Marx brothers in-fighting. Who's Marxism dogma is superior? Will they battle it out. TBA.
 
The reconquista of the Eastern Siberia. See California and Texas as an example.
 
Europe's energy dependence of Russia is slowly disappearing. Most European nations have LNG docking and the last two, Poland and Lithuania are in the process of doing it. Did I mentioned oil glut? Right now, with a nasty winter, and Europe's reservoirs are full capacity.
 
The biggie. The normally compliant Chancellor Merkel is livid with Putler and has told him so. Something along "breaking her trust" or similar words.
 
Point is that Putler miscalculated BAD. No China on his side. Germany is pissed at him. And now he is being isolated by the western community.
 
No or little cost? Are you sure of that?

End game.. +1 for Putin. 0 for the West.

It's only half-time. 

[jone]

Putler?

[Larry1]

Putler?

A clever melding of the names Putin and Hitler.  I wouldn't have thought it appropriate until Putin's astounding recreation of Hitler's speeches and actions regarding the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia in 1938.

[stilllooking]

I must have been Hibernating during the Nasty winter Europe just had I can count the times I had to scrape ice of my car window on one hand (with two of those times coming in the past week).

I agree with the Putler statement, but we must also not forget that the person being referenced to was allowed to annex large parts of Europe before the English and French decided to try to stop him and even then the US lent support by sending over hardware, not troops. It took the Japanese bombing Pearl Harbor for the US to involve their troops.

Western nations have been decimating their armed forces and adapting them to fight terrorism and run peace missions instead of a conventional war. Does the US have the stomach and the willpower to throw another trillion dollars at a fight far from home? Yes, China is not really supporting Putin, but will they be supporting the US by buying the bonds needed to finance such a war?

[Muzh]

Putler?

I know some people refer to him as Putalin. 

[alex330]

I know some people refer to him as Putalin. 

So according to the Russian language that makes him an Hijo de  ?

[BC]

Europe had a very mild winter.. very mild.  Due to the last troubles with UA/RU gas crisis, higher reserves were stocked and of course now at full capacity.

UA is dependent on cheap gas from RU and much of EU is dependent of normal priced gas from RU.  If UA has to pay market rates, most of western financial aid will go towards making up the price difference.

If the US has to increase exports to EU to make up for a loss of gas from RU prices will rise in the US.

It's a balancing act folks.

As for China, historically they have acted hand in hand with RU and not with the West.  It would take a lot more than Crimea to change that.

[Muzh]

So according to the Russian language that makes him an Hijo de  ?

Bad, bad. Filthy mind. 
 
Son of Stalin. 

[Muzh]

Europe had a very mild winter.. very mild.  Due to the last troubles with UA/RU gas crisis, higher reserves were stocked and of course now at full capacity.

UA is dependent on cheap gas from RU and much of EU is dependent of normal priced gas from RU.  If UA has to pay market rates, most of western financial aid will go towards making up the price difference.

If the US has to increase exports to EU to make up for a loss of gas from RU prices will rise in the US.

It's a balancing act folks.

As for China, historically they have acted hand in hand with RU and not with the West.  It would take a lot more than Crimea to change that.

BC, I was just reading the Moscow Times and their OP/ED editor wrote the following:
 
4 Reasons Why Putin's Crimea Grab Will Backfire
 
The Moscow Times

[BC]

BC, I was just reading the Moscow Times and their OP/ED editor wrote the following:
 
4 Reasons Why Putin's Crimea Grab Will Backfire
 
The Moscow Times

Muzh,

One thing we can't forge is that Putin, Obama, Merkel, whomever is at the top of a modern government has many, many more tools to assess the consequences of this action or that.....  the common man or blogger or 'opinion page editor' has just that.. an opinion..

You know that old saying 'opinions are like assholes... everybody has one'..

But believe me, the folks at the top have much more.. they are not just slinging from the hip.

[Muzh]

Muzh,

One thing we can't forge is that Putin, Obama, Merkel, whomever is at the top of a modern government has many, many more tools to assess the consequences of this action or that.....  the common man or blogger or 'opinion page editor' has just that.. an opinion..

You know that old saying 'opinions are like assholes... everybody has one'..

But believe me, the folks at the top have much more.. they are not just slinging from the hip.

 

I hope you are not saying that we should then throw our arms up in the air and say "Fcuk it" because we don't have "much more" as compared to our world leaders.
 
Come to think of it, they became world leaders (well, most of them) because WE didn't say "Fcuk it" and threw our arms up in the air.
 
Point is if we do not look at what is happening to our world, then we shouldn't complain at all, right?
 
Besides, those world leaders are very fond of those assholes, er..., opinions because they do look constantly at where the assholes are pointing.
 
Watch out!!! Incoming!  
Silent but deadly.
 

[jone]

I have a tough time believing that Ukraine will join NATO.  NATO's eastern expansion is not supported by the majority of Ukrainians (AT THIS TIME).    Instead, I see the threat of joining NATO as keeping Russia at bay and on the correct side of their border.

But that is just my opinion.  And everyone has one.