What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[Gator]

Calm down folks.

Both NATO and Obama have expressed concerned about the positioning of Russian troops along Ukraine's eastern border.  Reports place the total number of troops at 40,000.  IMO this is well short of the number needed for a Russia invasion, even with far superior airpower and armor. 

When the Soviets intervened in Afghanistan in 1979, the initial Soviet force numbered 80,000 men.  This for a country where the government was pro-Soviet and half of the Afghan army still loyal to the government.

Russia will not invade Ukraine now (but probably much later).  And when it happens Russia will need far more than 40,000 men.  What we have now is Russia making a demonstration of its capability.  It is for show.  We also have the Russian boa constrictor.  It has ingested Crimea.  Like the boa it must rest before feeding again. 

Ignore my analysis and simply look at the price of oil.  The price has dropped recently.  The smart money will know of an invasion well before it happens, and start driving the price of oil up knowing that sanctions will curtail Russian exports. 

So calm down folks.

[missAmeno]

Here we are 
Majority of Russian citizens do not consider the invading Ukraine as a realistic scenario, moreover they would condemn it. So the invading would be a great unpleasant supprise. However  at present majority of Russian citizens watch russian TV and not CNN so they feel no concerns. Then backing off will reflect on Putin as being reasonable man whom they can trust and vote for father.
   Obama will be looking good for sure, let him thank Putin 

I am confused, help me to understand bolded part.
So if majority of Russians do not consider Russia will invade Ukraine what do they thinks about Russians troops/tanks/heavy artillery/etc on our border? Picnic? Dress up party? Or it is way of intimidating Ukrainians? If it is intimidation do really majority of Russians desire forget centuries of history between two nations and establish 'friendship' and 'warm feelings towards each other' by pointing guns at Ukrainians?
Presidents come and go, nations remain and will have to live with consequences. So what it will be if your sociopath president decides dress up party was nice but it is time to invade Ukraine:
a. You stop supporting him but quietly keep your opinion to yourself;
b. You stop supporting him and will be doing something to stop Russian invasion;
c. You stop supporting him and will come and fight with Ukrainians for their sovereignty;
d. You will consider provided excuses for invasion and if excuses good enough you will support invasion;
e. You will consider provided excuses for invasion and if excuses good enough you will go fight against Ukrainians.

[jone]

Where, in here, Gator, do you see the prices over the last three months going down?  It seems to me to be just the opposite and directly reflects the speculation over Russian aggression.

I'm not trying to hold your feet to the fire ...... well, maybe I am.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/28/markets-oil-idUSL4N0MP1AK20140328

[Gator]

Yes, from peak a month ago, but now on the upswing as you say.  What do you think the price would be if Russia invaded Ukraine? There would be a much larger rise.   

And how about the number of troops?

You should look at Brent rather than WTI.   http://markets.ft.com/research/markets/Tearsheets/Summary?s=IB.1:IEU

The rise at the beginning of March was more about outages and other market forces (demand, currency fluctuations, ....) than Crimea IMO as is the recent uptick. 

[BillyB]

  Reports place the total number of troops at 40,000.  IMO this is well short of the number needed for a Russia invasion, even with far superior airpower and armor. 

The amount of troops are enough for a more peaceful partial invasion like the one in Crimea if Ukraine doesn't fire back. There has been disagreement on the number of troops on the border but one thing NATO, USA, and Ukraine agree on is that the force is increasing rapidly and are not performing training exercises as Russia claims. It's also hard to count troops and armor when their hiding in forests. By the May 25 election, we'll know if the buildup is strong enough for a more dominant invasion.


Don't forget the 25,000 Russian troops sitting in Crimea. The troops on the Ukrainian-Russian border aren't the only ones that can fire a gun.


http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/28/world/europe/russia-ukraine-troop-buildup/

Ignore my analysis and simply look at the price of oil.  The price has dropped recently.  The smart money will know of an invasion well before it happens, and start driving the price of oil up knowing that sanctions will curtail Russian exports. 

I wish oil was the definite answer to what's going to happen to end speculation. Did price of oil predict Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, 9/11, or the Arab Spring? Price of oil sometimes moves only after an event takes place. I understand there are a lot of smart people in oil and I do value what they say, but the only fact is the one in control of the current situation is Putin and since he's KGB smart, he knows how disguise his next moves and keep people guessing.

Calm down folks.

Some people are living in fear. It's easy to experience fear when a neighbor invades part of your country and now is holding a loaded gun to your head at a time when the nation is most weak after a revolution and somewhat still divided. Some members here are about to travel to Ukraine. Others have loved ones in Ukraine and some who are married to Ukrainians have in laws that could be affected by an invasion.


I'd like to tell my MIL currently in Ukraine she can just live her life worry free. That would be irresponsible for me to say that. When it comes to life and death with your nation on the edge of war, it's wise to prepare for the worse. I've given her tips for her safety and how to survive long term if utilities and food supplies get shut down. I suggested two ways for her to escape Ukraine and fly to America. One option is through Poland and the other through Moldova but the Moldova option isn't looking to good right now. MIL wants to stay in Ukraine to vote. As a retired doctor, she may even decide to stay in Ukraine to provide medical attention to those who are in need. She loves helping people and loves Ukraine but she also would like to see her future grandchildren. Some people think doctors have a moral duty to stay and work in the event of a war but I wouldn't think less of her if she avoids it.

[jone]

I believe if Russia invaded Ukraine they would come with everything they had.  Especially since Ukraine has now had time to prepare.

Just as an aside, the US claims troop buildups of 40,000.  The Ukrainians claim troop buildups of 80,000 to 100,000. I think we are seeing a bit of stage acting by the Ukrainians.

I also think that the moves by Russia has propelled the Ukrainians into a different mode of thinking that is extremely anti-Russian.  While there may be 10-20% in some regions of the country that are for joining Russia, the 30-40% of people who are Russian speakers and were indifferent to politics are now heavily swayed by Russia's aggressive action.  They are scared.  They consider Russia a great evil.  Such was not the case three months ago. 

Ukrainians have a gut fear of invasion.  They have had it instilled in them for generations upon generations.    Russia will not overcome this fear that it has seeded in the core of the Ukrainian population in our lifetime.

[Belvis]

So if majority of Russians do not consider Russia will invade Ukraine what do they thinks about Russians troops/tanks/heavy artillery/etc on our border? Picnic? Dress up party? Or it is way of intimidating Ukrainians?

Actually Russians think nothing about Russians troops/tanks/heavy artillery/etc on Ukrainian border. Because they do not watch or read Ukrainian sources or CNN, and Russian media covers the events without war rhetoric. Though we read official denials at different levels about the troops concentration. 7 Ukrainian and NATO inspections took place in the last month along  Russo-Ukrainian border and found nothing  questionable.

So what it will be if your sociopath president decides dress up party was nice but it is time to invade Ukraine:
a. You stop supporting him but quietly keep your opinion to yourself;
b. You stop supporting him and will be doing something to stop Russian invasion;
c. You stop supporting him and will come and fight with Ukrainians for their sovereignty;
d. You will consider provided excuses for invasion and if excuses good enough you will support invasion;
e. You will consider provided excuses for invasion and if excuses good enough you will go fight against Ukrainians.

Majority of Russians including Putin considers Ukrainians  as part of Russian people, and we hate the civil war. Putin is not  sociopath but calculating man focused on national interests of Russia. Results of his rule support this statement.
In reply to options I'd like to note that possible answer does not reflect on what real actions will be.

[Belvis]

Where, in here, Gator, do you see the prices over the last three months going down?  It seems to me to be just the opposite and directly reflects the speculation over Russian aggression.

Talking in terms of stock market the oil price is moving within wide consolidation for 3 years. Good for option sellers.

[BillyB]

Then backing off will reflect on Putin as being reasonable man whom they can trust and vote for father.
   Obama will be looking good for sure, let him thank Putin 

True, the actions of Putin dictates how good or bad Obama will look.


 I'm disappointed at Obama for disclosing that it was Putin who initiated the last call when Obama didn't make a practice of disclosing who initiates calls in the past. Putin is probably pissed that Obama is insinuating he has the upper hand and Putin is backing down. Obama's makes himself look good by insinuating Putin is hesitating and his sanctions are working but truth is Obama's hurting the chances of resolving the situation peacefully for personal gain.

[jone]

True, the actions of Putin dictates how good or bad Obama will look.


 I'm disappointed at Obama for disclosing that it was Putin who initiated the last call when Obama didn't make a practice of disclosing who initiates calls in the past. Putin is probably pissed that Obama is insinuating he has the upper hand and Putin is backing down. Obama's makes himself look good by insinuating Putin is hesitating and his sanctions are working but truth is Obama's hurting the chances of resolving the situation peacefully for personal gain.

Excellent observations, Billy.

[BillyB]

Though we read official denials at different levels about the troops concentration. 7 Ukrainian and NATO inspections took place in the last month along  Russo-Ukrainian border and found nothing  questionable.

Interesting because in Western news, we read that Ukraine and NATO have sounded off alarms about the troop buildup. Somebody is lying to their people.

[BC]

I doubt Putin ever really considered invading UA proper as viable.  With Crimea it's his win and UA politics have a long long way before becoming stable enough for a move in the direction of EU, NATO or RU for that matter.

After all, what's UA worth strategically without Crimea?

The remaining battles over UA will be economic.  Is the west up to paying the price?  After all RU has to do is maintain low gas prices and mingle a bit in politics whereas the west has quite a way to go.

Yeah, Putin is probably a bit pissed with western media and politics trying to put a spin on him.  The troops at the border were a deterrence for UA trying to forcefully re-take Crimea.. nothing more, nothing less.

My tip, UA will not be able to live up to the fiscal restraints of western aid, RU will chip in and things go back to status quo in short order.  UA has more to gain leaning east than west.  EU is becoming less dependent on RU gas giving RU cheap leverage over UA without too many strings attached.

[Larry1]

Much discussion has occurred on whether Russia will invade Ukraine from the East.  I came across this interesting piece on what that Russian invasion would likely entail.  Here are a few of the highlights:

What Would A Russian Invasion Of Ukraine Look Like?

In brief, the aim would be a blitzkrieg that, before Ukraine has the chance properly to muster its forces and, perhaps more to the point, the West can meaningfully react, allows the Russians to draw a new front line and assert their own ground truth, much as happened in Crimea (though this would be much more bloody and contested).

... The first stage would be to infiltrate special forces and agents ...

Vremya Cha, ‘Zero Hour,’ would be marked with a massive attempt to shatter Ukraine’s command, control and communications infrastructure through everything from jamming and cyberattack to physical sabotage...

Meanwhile, the airports in eastern cities such as Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk will be being seized, (allowing) the rapid insertion of the paratroop forces the Russians have already assembled close by...

Regular Russian ground forces will spill across the border to support them. Not only have armoured and mechanised forces been mustered along the border, with full artillery support, but perhaps more telling has been the assembly of the logistical necessities–fuel, ammunition, medical supplies, etc–for high-tempo operations.

The aim, as mentioned, will be to move fast to seize and define a new front line wherever Moscow wants it.

http://inmoscowsshadows.wordpress.com/2014/03/28/what-would-a-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-look-like/

[missAmeno]

Actually Russians think nothing about Russians troops/tanks/heavy artillery/etc on Ukrainian border. Because they do not watch or read Ukrainian sources or CNN, and Russian media covers the events without war rhetoric. Though we read official denials at different levels about the troops concentration. 7 Ukrainian and NATO inspections took place in the last month along  Russo-Ukrainian border and found nothing  questionable.

Joke? Net is full of info about large build up of Russian troops on Ukrainian border in every language including Russian as well as video uploads made by Russians who witnessed movement of military vehicles.
What is this?

Majority of Russians including Putin considers Ukrainians  as part of Russian people, and we hate the civil war.

And what Ukrainians consider counts in somehow or not? Because majority are Ukrainians and not only not Russians but also do not see themselves as part of Russian people in anyway.
Just because you invaded us several times doesn't mean we became you. Just because during Soviet Union Ukrainians have been forced to speak Russian as a first language doesn't mean Russia can go on 'defending' Ukrainians on pretense of 'defending Russian language speakers'.

Putin is not  sociopath but calculating man focused on national interests of Russia.

Another joke? If its a dress up party don't you realize approx. cost of it and that those money could have been spent better way to benefit average Russian citizens? And if that is preparation for invasion don't you realize Ukrainians will fight back if Russians cross border?

[Ranetka]

And if that is preparation for invasion don't you realize Ukrainians will fight back if Russians cross border?

I find this statement very interesting. Do you in fact agree that Crimea was not invaded?

[justme100]

And what Ukrainians consider counts in somehow or not?

I'm afraid the answer is No. At least the USA never asked Ukrainians before it organized Maydan. At least people in Crimea were never asked. Discrimination...there are 2 millioins of us, we should have been asked

[missAmeno]

I find this statement very interesting. Do you in fact agree that Crimea was not invaded?

No, I believe Crimea was invaded but Ukrainians unlike Russians are not invaders. Crimea was given to us, we didn't invade it, we didn't force Crimea population to be us.

[Ranetka]

No, I believe Crimea was invaded but Ukrainians unlike Russians are not invaders. Crimea was given to us, we didn't invade it, we didn't force Crimea population to be us.
[/quote

If Crimea was invaded where was the fight?

[missAmeno]

I'm afraid the answer is No. At least the USA never asked Ukrainians before it organized Maydan. At least people in Crimea were never asked. Discrimination...there are 2 millioins of us, we should have been asked

Even if allegedly USA  financially and politically supported Maidan it is Ukrainians in hundreds of thousands who came out on the streets of Kiev in sub-freezing temperature to fight for their future. Crimea people had a right to express their opinion as anyone else and by the way some from Crimea been on Maidan too and were fighting too.


As you are from Crimea do you know if you will be able to get any visas for traveling to other countries. My understanding is, as Crimea referendum was found illegitimate by other countries, you will not be able to obtain visas to travel those countries. Is this correct?

[missAmeno]

If Crimea was invaded where was the fight?

Invasion: an instance of invading a country or region with an armed force.

http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/invasion

Do you see anything about any 'fight'?

[missAmeno]

The troops at the border were a deterrence for UA trying to forcefully re-take Crimea.. nothing more, nothing less.

Yeah, right. 

Please, look reports on where Russia building up its troops, then open map, next find on the map where those Russians troops located and where is Crimea and then try to say again '.. nothing more, nothing less.'

[Ranetka]

http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/invasion

Do you see anything about any 'fight'?

You said if Russia invades Ukraine then Ukrainians will fight back. You said Crimea was invaded. My questions to you is why Ukrainians did not fight back then?

At what point Ukrainians will start fighting back?

[missAmeno]

You said if Russia invades Ukraine then Ukrainians will fight back. You said Crimea was invaded. My questions to you is why Ukrainians did not fight back then?

Because as I said Crimea was given to us. Majority of Crimean population is not Ukrainian by its roots and if Crimean population welcomes Russian invasion we wouldn't force them.

At what point Ukrainians will start fighting back?

Are you aware that average villagers living close to border where Russia pulling in troops digging trenches and making barricades and obstacles from car tyres (to light up for smoke) to be able slow down troops when invasion starts? Are you aware that across whole Ukraine men aged up to 50 yo re-called for national mobilization of the military? Are you aware that many do not wait for re-call and volunteering in order to be ready on time for invasion?  Majority people have no doubts invasion will happen, the only question remained unanswered is when it will begin.

[Belvis]

Net is full of info about large build up of Russian troops on Ukrainian border in every language including Russian as well as video uploads made by Russians who witnessed movement of military vehicles.
What is this?

This is large scale military exercises in western army district of Russia.  According to the Defense Minister, the drill was held from February 26 until March 3. 150,000 troops, 880 tanks and 1,200 pieces of military hardware were involved.

And what Ukrainians consider counts in somehow or not? Because majority are Ukrainians and not only not Russians but also do not see themselves as part of Russian people in anyway.

Yes, heated debate is going on and there are different views on the topic among Ukrainians as well. My personal observation: Ukrainians become Russians in Russia and Russians become Ukrainians in Ukraine.

Another joke? If its a dress up party don't you realize approx. cost of it and that those money could have been spent better way to benefit average Russian citizens? And if that is preparation for invasion don't you realize Ukrainians will fight back if Russians cross border?

If you wanna believe in invasion I have no means to overturn your opinion. Time will calm you down. Ukraine encounters economic challenges, not the Russian invasion.

[Ranetka]

Are you aware that average villagers living close to border where Russia pulling in troops digging trenches and making barricades and obstacles from car tyres (to light up for smoke) to be able slow down troops when invasion starts? Are you aware that across whole Ukraine men aged up to 50 yo re-called for national mobilization of the military? Are you aware that many do not wait for re-call and volunteering in order to be ready on time for invasion?  Majority people have no doubts invasion will happen, the only question remained unanswered is when it will begin.

I am aware of a mobilization, yes. Not aware of barricades in the bordering villages, you have any link, does not matter what language...