What would a U.S.-Russia war look like?

[lordtiberius]

Putin has a second rate military. And most of it is in Syria.  He is afraid he will be baited into an Afghanistan on his European border.

[fathertime]

has putin blinked ??  time will tell
one would hope so and it will reduce tensions etc
major damage has already been done between ukrainians , east and west by his hand

however my cynical side thinks it is more strategic manouvering to confuse & delay his main ambition, with a get out of town back door plan if needed
 
watch now as we all try to again analyze his motives and forescast his aims
SX

   

 
 hehe, yeah SX now it is time to weigh in with the next round of new perspectives. 


If indeed Russia is moving their troops back, it is no surprise to me…I didn’t feel those troops were going to launch an invasion, as it never made sense to me that loading up on the border and telegraphing  would be the way they would go about doing it in this case. Russia did take Crimea and they could leave it at that.  The USA can claim their tough sanctions made Russia retreat. 


It is possible that Putin’s people secretly met with whoever is representing the other side, and they are closer to some sort of understanding.   They should end with a negotiation with concessions from both sides rather than tanks and bullets.  Although it aggravates some, from my perspective when trying to look at the entire situation it appears unique enough to where it is not simply one country invading another for no good reason.  hopefully things are on the path of settling down although I would think there will be some more bumps in the road and bloodshed.


that is my 2 cents.


Fathertime! 

[southernX]

If indeed Russia is moving their troops back, it is no surprise to me…I didn’t feel those troops were going to launch an invasion, as it never made sense to me that loading up on the border and telegraphing  would be the way they would go about doing it in this case. Russia did take Crimea and they could leave it at that.   

FT,
ill reserve judegment yet on ''if '' putin does actually pull troops back , personally i dont think he will
 HOWEVER I HOPE IM WRONG    and he does indeed follow through

I didn’t feel those troops were going to launch an invasion, as it never made sense to me that loading up on the border and telegraphing  would be the way they would go about doing it in this case.

gotta offer the other side of the coin to that statement above

it made perfect sense to have his troops there on standby ,openely telegraphing his possible intent to ukraine 
 they where good for intimidation to all he may use them , this would possibly deter the  ukraine gov from a military hard line crack down in the s/east of  ukraine when/where  he put his crimea play book into operation ,

 it made it easier to move militia /equipment about on the border & across in covertly

it gave a strong sense of belief to all his propoganda both to russians at home and ukrainians,  EU, NATO, USA , ETC   that he was fully prepared to move in if the situation arose at short notice , thus detering anyone else from placing peacekeepers in ukraine
and   promoting  the call to russia for help from seperatist terrorists etc

it all added into the very volatile destabilisation tactics he wanted to inflict on ukraine

pretty much all l electricity , water , transport to criemea is via the south east of ukraine , let alone the gas and military &other manufactuaring he would gain , yes it needs infastructure development , but that is short term stuff , a decade from now it could help drive russias economy ,
 
it has made perfect sense to take the south east ,if he can do it at min cost to himself , at first it looked highly possible , now ukraines gov with support has been able to hold and counter back against the seperatists, they have shown it may prove costlier than putin at first thought ,
he may have misjudged the level of support he would get there for russian control

this call today by putin to pull back troops , and support for the election may again be a stalling tactic to portray a de,escalation , while allowing his covert operation time to regroup and reset   

time will tell , personally i hope im completly wrong in my thoughts from feb till now about his course of action , nothing would please me more to be honest , lol

SX

[Gator]

For your information, Russia never massed enough troops to mount an invasion.  I discussed this pages ago. 

[fathertime]

FT,
ill reserve judegment yet on ''if '' putin does actually pull troops back , personally i dont think he will
 HOWEVER I HOPE IM WRONG    and he does indeed follow through

gotta offer the other side of the coin to that statement above

it made perfect sense to have his troops there on standby ,openely telegraphing his possible intent to ukraine 
 they where good for intimidation to all he may use them , this would possibly deter the  ukraine gov from a military hard line crack down in the s/east of  ukraine when/where  he put his crimea play book into operation ,

 it made it easier to move militia /equipment about on the border & across in covertly

it gave a strong sense of belief to all his propoganda both to russians at home and ukrainians,  EU, NATO, USA , ETC   that he was fully prepared to move in if the situation arose at short notice , thus detering anyone else from placing peacekeepers in ukraine
and   promoting  the call to russia for help from seperatist terrorists etc

it all added into the very volatile destabilisation tactics he wanted to inflict on ukraine

pretty much all l electricity , water , transport to criemea is via the south east of ukraine , let alone the gas and military &other manufactuaring he would gain , yes it needs infastructure development , but that is short term stuff , a decade from now it could help drive russias economy ,
 
it has made perfect sense to take the south east ,if he can do it at min cost to himself , at first it looked highly possible , now ukraines gov with support has been able to hold and counter back against the seperatists, they have shown it may prove costlier than putin at first thought ,
he may have misjudged the level of support he would get there for russian control

this call today by putin to pull back troops , and support for the election may again be a stalling tactic to portray a de,escalation , while allowing his covert operation time to regroup and reset   

time will tell , personally i hope im completly wrong in my thoughts from feb till now about his course of action , nothing would please me more to be honest , lol

SX

 sx, i hear you...I just think that those troops could have swept in there with reinforcements and he knew it but choose against it..they served his purposes without doing very much.
.. my feeling remains that he never intended to occupy...you wrote several reasons why the troops would be there without invading and I agree with all of that....if he can have those regions semi-autonomous that should be victory enough...he might have helped stir up enough discord to accomplish it too...we shall see if there is a forthcoming backroom deal...or if this is merely a stall like you said it might be...


I feel he should just call it a day after all he took control of Crimea...I would think anything else would just be a reach and a bonus. 


Fathertime!

[southernX]

For your information, Russia never massed enough troops to mount an invasion.  I discussed this pages ago.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/02/uk-ukraine-crisis-breedlove-idUKBREA310J820140402

gator , the top NATO general disagrees with you ,
going back well over amonth ago  he stated putin [russia had a sizable fully capable  force of taking s/east of ukraine across to the moldova border in 3-5 days  taking the kharkiv, luhansk , donest , oddessa regions  if a decision was made to use it

however if he did a far greater force would be needed to occupy this territory once taken by russia , hopefully with the resistance being shown by ukraine this has swayed putin to rehtink his objectives somewhat

[fathertime]

gator , the top NATO general disagrees with you ,
going back well over amonth ago  he stated putin [russia had a sizable fully capable  force of taking s/east of ukraine across to the moldova border in 3-5 days  taking the kharkiv, luhansk , donest , oddessa regions  if a decision was made to use it

however if he did a far greater force would be needed to occupy this territory once taken by russia , hopefully with the resistance being shown by ukraine this has swayed putin to rehtink his objectives somewhat

coincidentally there is an article today that addresses this issue...here it is:  [size=78%]http://www.cnbc.com/id/101646693[/size]


---one statement in the article states that Ukraine would only have around 7000 troops prepared to fight in E. Ukraine...


given how often we read about Ukrainian troops being confronted and leaving just during with these building takeovers, you gotta wonder what they would do against a full fledged army....Russia might have been able to storm through those parts with very little gunfire....who knows...but it seems clear Russia could have essentially rolled right through....the problem would have been the occupation and having to deal with guerrillas forevermore, guerrillas that western powers might try to arm...when all these moves get thought about in advance, an invasion would be very costly and not worthwhile...


Fathertime!     

[JayH]

Saboteurs responsible for supplying firearms. Reuters SBU detained saboteurs SBU detained two saboteurs who belonged to the group of the Central Intelligence Colonel General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Igor Strelkova . "As part of the anti-terrorist operation on April 23 SBU detained two dangerous criminals who were part of a subversive group Strelkova" - said the head of the press center of the Security Service of Ukraine Maryna Ostapenko. She said one of the detainees involved in the coordination of the Crimean branch of "Russian Unity" and members of the reconnaissance and sabotage groups GRU of the General Staff of the Armed Forces organized a delight adminbudivel Artemivsk and Slavic Donetsk region. Read more: In the East, "vpolyuvaly" FSBshnykiv and saboteurs Million USD Ostapenko added that specified saboteur was also responsible for the supply of firearms. It is reported that from 7 to 20 October, was arrested in the Crimea, where he appropriate instruction in destabilizing the situation in the south-eastern regions of Ukraine. "The second detainee - a citizen of" C ", which entered the territory of Ukraine, using as cover passport of citizen of Ukraine," - she said. Earlier it was reported that the former head of the SBU said that in Ukraine have detained  25 commandos from Russia .
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/politika/sbushniki-zatrimali-diversantiv-iz-grupi-rosiyskogo-specnazivcya-stryelkova-346831.html

[JayH]

This could have some credence on why Putin is piking it ( if he really is?)
Quoting
Ukrainian southeast did not support the idea of secession from the country, which was a shock for Putin. In an interview, said former adviser Andrei Illarionov, Vladimir Putin, reports "Media of Ukraine": "In Ukraine there were no region, no area in which Putin's support would have been enough," - said Illarionov. According to him, "despite to seize administrative buildings in eastern Ukraine, the number of inhabitants of these regions, supporting the separatists and the separation of the regions of Ukraine "was Putin shockingly low. "April 18" Zerkalo Nedeli "published the results of a detailed survey on nayzlobodennishyh issues in each area of the South East. Even in Lugansk and Donetsk regions that are most different from other Ukrainian regions, supporters of separatism appeared twice - three times less than the opponents. As a result, Putin became the victim (add: initiative victim) the myth of the fairy Novorossia, which he fed his spin doctors ever since the Orange Revolution. No chance in Putin's plan for the New department has not been from the beginning - it was a real adventure, "- he said. Former Adviser Putin said that Russian President spent time trying to stir up pro-Russian sentiment in eastern Ukraine turned into a tragedy, but no results : "In order to see this, Putin took several weeks generally unsuccessful blasting operations of Russian special forces that resulted in the death of many people on both sides of the front unleashed Putin Russian-Ukrainian War. Putin burned matches, poured gasoline pidkladav dust ... but not Ukraine as a whole, nor its south and east, or even some of the most "separatist" region is not "broke." "Incendiary material" as a pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine proved negligible. " one of the markers end escapade Andrei Illarionov called the Security Service intercepted conversation between leaders and coordinators separatists in Russia: "An additional confirmation of the inexorable approach of a grand failure was intercepted SBU Barkashov conversation with one of the leaders separatists. Its content is illustrative because it terrorists themselves say that they can not even hold a referendum adulterated. " "A few days ago Dmitry Timchuk the" Information opposition "drew attention to the fact that about ten days ago Putin began his rotation abandoned Agents . Derived HRUshnyky VDVshnyky and were replaced by the Cossacks, "titushkamy" Colorado with a different training. Realizing that his plan fails, Putin began replacement of its elite forces those in the language of intelligence and kremlivtsiv called "canned" - said the expert. According to him, Putin is now nothing to do but to rely on diplomacy, but the situation Ukraine will continue to loose: "Now he will try to transfer the weight of the main campaign to destabilize Ukraine field of special operations to diplomatic. Now he relies on negotiations, which by means of neomyunhentsiv try to draw a Ukrainian secret service. Greater risk of another Geneva with another "Brzezinski plan 'putting on Ukraine without massive use of military force. Without a doubt, requirements will be failure of Ukraine's membership in the European Union, NATO, the security of non-aligned status. In other words, will continue in an attempt to implement the scenario of external control Ukraine. When rude deprived little meaningful support, then the weight is transferred to the Munich-type methods. " Former Advisor of the Russian president believes that most of the separatists in eastern Ukraine has nothing depends on: "As for the position of most separatists now it has little value . Will they continue their doomed game, or they will soon explain what should heed the advice of Putin, is not as important. If they do not follow the advice of Putin, their fate will be similar to the fate of those in the jargon of special services called "canned." If they still believe that Putin will come to their aid with military force, they are mistaken. He tries to save them by using the so-called negotiations and international organizations. Let's see how this attempt to respond Ukrainian

[lordtiberius]

NATO reports Russian withdrawal bogus. Putin instead is missile testing.

[Faux Pas]

For your information, Russia never massed enough troops to mount an invasion.  I discussed this pages ago.

The number I read numerous times was 40K. That is plenty to launch an invasion on any country sharing a border. More so on a country unprepared to defend itself.

[BillyB]

NATO reports Russian withdrawal bogus.

Victory Day is a big holiday in Russia. Could be Putin allowed some or even most soldiers stationed along the border a few days leave to party/celebrate in nearby towns to keep moral up. Putin then could claim he never lied about troop withdrawal even if it's only for a few days/hours.

[lordtiberius]

Ah another win win

[southernX]

Victory Day is a big holiday in Russia. Could be Putin allowed some or even most soldiers stationed along the border a few days leave to party/celebrate in nearby towns to keep moral up. Putin then could claim he never lied about troop withdrawal even if it's only for a few days/hours.

very possible

i had the pleasure of being in st petes on may 9th many years ago , it was a huge event , military parades, full on banners ,streets and buildings dressed up ,  war veterans in full uniform and all getting flowers and full respect on the metro , buses etc wherever you went from all generations as a thank you for their efforts

funny thing is i still have my ribbon from that event  given to me to wear on the day , it now represents something entirley different

very memorable patriotic event

SX

[lordtiberius]

Bloodbath at Mariupol near Cafe Arbat, more win wins. . .

[JohnDearGreen]

1 million referendum ballots destroyed by Right sector in Donetsk.
http://www.unn.com.ua/uk/news/1339931-nevidomi-kotri-u-donetsku-znischili-byuleteni-dlya-referendumu-buli-iz-povyazkami-pravogo-sektoru-ochevidtsi

[cc3]

So what? It's an illegal referendum.

[fathertime]

Bloodbath at Mariupol near Cafe Arbat, more win wins. . .

I'm delighted to have a new pet who always has me in all of his thoughts.

Fathertime!

[JohnDearGreen]

1 million referendum ballots destroyed by Right sector in Donetsk.

But new ones coming in, which are conveniently already pre-filled in.

[Krassie]

The same story was with the Crimea. ... In reality only 15% of people in the Crimea voted for Russian Federation...  mostly older generation that lived under Stalin and communists. 

[Maxx2]

But new ones coming in, which are conveniently already pre-filled in.

Jeez they are tough on voter fraud over there! They bind the fraudsters hands behind their backs and then suffocate them with black plastic bags over their heads. No trial? So whose side are we to be on?

[Maxx2]

After close and repeated examination I conclude they are not dead. The first guy's plastic bag moves from breathing. The second guy is completely motionless but his feet are in a position a corpse would not be in. The third guy moves his left leg a little and then it looks and sounds like the standing man kicks him. War time atrocities are common and frankly everywhere. Look at the results of Western propaganda. Civilian casualties are collateral damage, that the NATO bombing of Libya was a kinetic action and torturing people is only enhanced interrogation.

[Chelseaboy]

Yeah,

        Let's feel sorry for those referendum rigging,armed-to-the teeth, poor little gangsters/terrorists 

[Maxx2]

Yeah,

        Let's feel sorry for those referendum rigging,armed-to-the teeth, poor little gangsters/terrorists 

I don't feel sorry for them. I don't feel sorry for the people that you take sides with like those folks who killed over a hundred people in a burning building in Odessa. All I heard was it was justified because they "reaped what they sown." I wonder what the baby inside the strangled pregnant woman had done?


 

[lordtiberius]

Looks like you took a side to me.