The Russian Invasion of Ukraine-The Real Nazis

[Photo Guy]

A possible scenario, if UN peacekeepers were sent to patrol the border-

This would shine a light on the influx of weapons from Russia and stop or expose the influx of missiles from Russia that are exploding in Ukraine near the border. Ukraine's biggest problem is the separatists' supply line from Russia.

[jone]

          Very few times have I ever wanted to quote a whole article.  But with Timothy Ash, I think that it is worthwhile reading for anyone with relatives and/or ongoing romances in Ukraine.  I have met this guy and he is one bright SOB.  If you read his different scenarios, he gives a clear vision as to what possible scenarios are likely in the next two to three weeks:

SUMMARY:

·         Analysts have been behind the curve on the Ukraine/Russia crisis, typically neglecting to consider worse case scenarios, which have tended to result. Now might be the time to think through the consequences of less market-friendly outcomes.

·         The military status quo on the ground appears unsustainable. The Ukrainian military is making significant gains, and is eager to secure victory by the time of parliamentary elections in October.

·         Russia has to make some difficult choices, whether to accept ‘‘defeat’’ in Ukraine, and back off, taking a less confrontational approach, or double up and move to a more formalised intervention to stem the advance of the Ukrainian military.

·         We attach a relatively high probability to an attempt by Russia to muster support for intervention by a Russian-led peacekeeping force. We think the West will block such attempts at the United Nations Security Council but, depending on developments on the ground, Russia might still intervene more directly, using regular troops ‘‘branded’’ as peacekeepers. We think that such a strategy would risk a direct conflict between Russian and Ukrainian troops, which would represent a further and significant escalation of the current conflict. We think any such conflict would though be of a relatively short duration, albeit intensive and damaging, but with the risk that Donbas, alongside Crimea, becomes a ‘‘frozen conflict’’ and a source of long term friction between the West/Ukraine and Russia.

·         We see almost no chance of NATO becoming involved in a direct military conflict with Russia, but the West could move to arm Ukraine, in response to Russia’s direct intervention in Ukraine, and NATO is also likely to boost military assets available to the Baltics and Poland.

·         The West is likely to implement a further sanctions iteration on Russia, in response to further and more formalized Russian intervention in Ukraine. These sanctions will be slow to roll off, without agreement on a longer-term solution over the issues of the future of Crimea, the Donbas and also Ukraine. Sanctions will have a lasting and negative impact on relations between the West and Russia, and more directly on investment in/out of Russia and more broadly on Russia’s outlook for growth, development and also market perceptions.

Introduction

The crisis in Ukraine has been nothing if not unpredictable throughout. Indeed, time and time again the crisis has lurched to yet another worst case, or ‘‘Black Swan,” scenario. To recap, no one expected the Maydan protests, few predicted the ousting of former President Viktor Yanukovych, and similarly there seemed total incomprehension beforehand that Russia would annex Crimea as it did in April, questioning Ukraine’s territorial integrity and driving through the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 (a lynchpin of regional security and global nuclear non-proliferation) nor that Ukrainr could see a major conflict on its territory --- Ukrainians as recently as April were indignant to me at least at the prospect of Ukrainians fighting Ukrainians, or even Russians; I should add herein that most Ukrainians still do not see the current conflict as a civil war, but rather a war of liberation against foreign intervention and aggression by Russia. And again, few people predicted Western sanctions on Russia, or that Russia would not back down, but would remain on a course heading towards conflict and confrontation with Ukraine and the West.

.....  Here is the hotlink for the rest of the story.......

http://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/op-ed/timothy-ash-time-to-think-about-worst-case-scenarios-in-ukraine-russia-crisis-359573.html

Timothy Ash is an analyst of emerging markets for Standard Bank in London.

[southernX]

JONE  i also agree with timothy ash , good article , one many should read imho

http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=17402.msg368222#msg368222

on: May 28, 2014, 06:18:50 PM »

FT

given the commitments america &others made to ukraine with the budapest memorandum, the very wise and direct prudent action would have been for the UN to offer /place peacekeeprs into ukraine directly after the events on maidan 19-22nd of feb ,

this single action would have probably stopped putins action in crimea & s/east ukraien in its tracks

with the very high resulting probability of no major conflicts or deaths like we have seen to date

putin would not have taken on the UN , & with the UN involvement it would be hard to make use of his propoganda arguments he has used about ukraine to justify his actions

the above is not war mongering imho , it is a simple direct action designed to confront all partys and stop the escalation of events until ukraine  could hold an election

pity the UN didnt act sooner in this regard, it may have staved off much off the recent crisis

SX

[I/O]

pity the UN didnt act sooner

The UN has never (at least so far as I can recall) acted pre-emptively and wouldn't have in UA. Much as I'd like UN peacekeepers to be an outcome, it won't be - the die is now clearly cast.

[southernX]

The UN has never (at least so far as I can recall) acted pre-emptively and wouldn't have in UA. Much as I'd like UN peacekeepers to be an outcome, it won't be - the die is now clearly cast.

yes , this is true , they are always behind the play , and only get involved when lots of blood has been spilled
pity it is that way when it should be the opposite imo

SX

[Faux Pas]

yes , this is true , they are always behind the play , and only get involved when lots of blood has been spilled
pity it is that way when it should be the opposite imo

SX

They don't get involved even then. Typically, they just observe. If the UN sends in Russia as peace keepers, it will get ugly. Putin's free gratis to Ukraine.

Personally I fear the UN more than I do Russia. The UN has an army and apparently itching to mobilize it. Russia is an integral part of that force. That result is not going to have a good ending for anyone.

[southernX]

FP
IF  & thats a big IF  ,  the UN was to send in peacekeepers, it should not consist of any russians given the perceived conflict of interest they have ,

the general idea would be to have a UN lead FORCE that has no bias in keeping donetsk/luhansk as a frozen conflict and could support along with the OSCE any ideas of referendums/elections /annexations  etc as independent peackeepers , while orderly negotiations took place without /min loss of life
this would be much less so if russia was involved  imho

however i doubt it will happen anytime soon
SX

[BillyB]

Perhaps the US ambassador should counter with an international UN peacekeeping force.  That would stop the humanitarian crisis immediately, if accepted by both sides.

Russia didn't ask for help when they went into Crimea to stop the fascists from terrorizing the Crimeans. UN peacekeepers are not very efficient. They are usually soldiers without ammo for their weapons. They are called "peacekeepers" but make no mistake, they aren't "peace makers".


The only way Putin is going to stop is if somebody stronger gets in his way. UN peacekeepers and sanctions are not stronger than Russia.

[lordtiberius]

Donbass pro-Ukraine fighter reports Corruption & incompetence inside the Ukrainian political & military leadership

[BillyB]

Donbass pro-Ukraine fighter reports Corruption & incompetence inside the Ukrainian political & military leadership

Real old news. The citizens should have rid of all the politicians and other high level officials when they got rid of Yanukovych.


Ukraine's military is still beating the rebels. Putin will allow that to continue since he won't have to pay those rebels. It's hard to collect a paycheck when you're dead. When the Ukrainian army finish cleaning up the rebels and are battle fatigued, the Russian army will clean them up.

[lordtiberius]

I know that materialism is en vogue on this board but why adopt a philosophy when the facts prove it over and over again to be bogus?

If wars were won on superior strength and material, we would be vacationing in South Vietnam (and some would be trolling North Vietnamese villages.)  Wars may be an extension of politics but they are spiritual struggles.  He who has the political will to win will prevail ultimately in the war.  We do not know if this is the end, the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning.  But every body, even the Putin suckers knows he is losing and that Russia has imploded before and that Russia/Soviet Union has lost wars before.  Ask the Chechens, Japanese, Finns and Afghans.  Even the Poles, Mongols and Turks have routed the Russians.

There is so much wrong with Russia for reasons outlined all over this thread, I just don't even see it being a viable country much less stand up to Ukrainian military which continues to get stronger and more experienced every day.  The invasion ship has sailed and probably a leaky dingy with a Cunard facade but if you and others what buy that botox filled elevator high heeled shoes PR, you have plenty of company.

He is like a more manly version of  Obama, every thing he touches turns to sh!t.

No.  I see Russia's collapse soon.

[I/O]

I see Russia's collapse soon.

How so?

[lordtiberius]

The sanctions thus far have been pinprick. The aid to Ukraine nominal and symbolic.  And yet who is winning?  Dictators cannot long survive military defeats.  It is a permanent stain on their prestige. Ask Slobodan and Kubili Kahn.  Too many Russians don't like Putin. So much that Strelkov would defeat Vova in future "elections." He has too many enemies and unlike Hitler or even his idol Stalin, he doesn't have a lock on his people.

When a society destroys people like Koleznikov and Politskaya but enriches Putin, Kiselov and Medvedyev, its collapse is imminent.

[Faux Pas]

FP
IF  & thats a big IF  ,  the UN was to send in peacekeepers, it should not consist of any russians given the perceived conflict of interest they have ,

the general idea would be to have a UN lead FORCE that has no bias in keeping donetsk/luhansk as a frozen conflict and could support along with the OSCE any ideas of referendums/elections /annexations  etc as independent peackeepers , while orderly negotiations took place without /min loss of life
this would be much less so if russia was involved  imho

however i doubt it will happen anytime soon
SX

In a perfect world sure but, the world we now live in is bizzaro. Down is up, in is out and black is white. The caveat with that is, Russia has a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Russian soldiers very likely will show up in Ukraine under the auspice of the UN.

The UN has a tendency to do what the UN wants to do without much if any regard to what the member nations supposedly vote for. It itself has become a beast and self perpetuating entity. It has it's own interest as a priority and Ukraine's priority isn't going to get much consideration. The day we have to rely on the UN to do the policing is going to be a very sad day IMHO

[lordtiberius]

No way is the UN getting involved.  UN action requires concensus. Russia is a 2T economy and shrinking.  They didn't have the street credit after Syria to pull this off.  Now that they are isolated . . .like the Duke said, life is much much harder when you are stupid.

[Boethius]

A few by David Marples, an academic who has written extensively on Ukraine


http://ukraineanalysis.wordpress.com/2014/08/29/assessing-ukraines-options/

[Boethius]

Interesting article in The National Review -


http://www.nationalreview.com/article/377818/did-putin-plan-odessa-massacre-robert-zubrin/page/0/1?splash=

[LiveFromUkraine]

Interesting article in The National Review -


http://www.nationalreview.com/article/377818/did-putin-plan-odessa-massacre-robert-zubrin/page/0/1?splash=

From the videos I saw, it looked like the bombs were thrown at the building.  I thought it was pretty clear to be honest.  It did look like the Pro-Russians started the nonsense, though, that led to what unfortunately happened.

[Boethius]

Yes, the article speculates from both perspectives on that.

If the speculation in the article were proven true, it would not surprise me.

Meanwhile, in Crimea -

. . . officers of the Federal Security Service of Russia exert psychological pressure on the priests of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Kyiv Patriarchate, stated Archbishop Klyment of Simferopol and Crimea (Pavlo Kusch).

“Some priests were forced to sign papers on cooperation with the FSB. We are going back to the distant communist times, when the KGB exerted influence on clergymen,” he said, adding that the main issues the FSB representatives are interested in relate to the activities of archbishop Klyment, his circle of contacts, his plans, and travel routes.  However, despite the current situation, Archbishop of Simferopol and Crimea doe not plans to leave the peninsula.  “I come from Crimea and will not leave on my own will. First, my flock is here, and second, I am an indigenous Crimean resident. Third, I do not have the blessing to do so. All that was done over the past years was made ​​with my hands and the hands of my parishioners, and it would be a spiritual crime to cast it adrift,” said Archbishop Klyment.

As previously reported, only 9 priests out of 15 priests of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church – Kyiv Patriarchate remained in Crimea, according to Krym.

http://risu.org.ua/en/index/all_news/community/scandals/57577/

[AC]

Interesting article in The National Review -


http://www.nationalreview.com/article/377818/did-putin-plan-odessa-massacre-robert-zubrin/page/0/1?splash=

Yes I do. He may not have done this personally but it was clearly an FSB job. It was an obvious set-up. First pro-Russian thugs unexpectedly and unprovokedly attack a peaceful demonstration in the city center killing a few people with Kalashnikov rifles and injuring many others with clubs and missiles. All of Odessa is outraged and raises to crush them. The police is not doing anything. But the Odessites manage to defeat the Russians in the city center. Then people head for the separatist camp in a big square next to the train station (this place had been a problem for Odessa for two months, its inhabitants were notorious for being drunk and aggressive), but instead of dispersing and fleeing, the separatists entrench in the building in the center of the square and continue shooting at the advancing infuriated Ukrainians adding to their fury. Originally people just wanted to remove the camp from the square but they had to storm the building. It is a fact that the Russian leaders persuaded ordinary separatists to lock in the building and then went to the roof where they were safe. I guess if they had just told everybody to flee, there would have been much fewer casualties. But they did not only shoot from the roof but also threw Molotov coctails. It is hard to say whose coctail started the fire but playing with the fire is dangerous and those who live in a glass home should not throw stones, eh? It is also a mystery why so many people died in the building which did not burn to ashes, had long and wide corridors and stairs. There are theories that there were FSB officers inside who put some people to sleep using chloroform or something else, and the people simply died of carbon dioxide. The Nord-Ost tradegy comes to mind where many people also died of some gas. But it is just a theory. I personally saw a lot of gas mask filters in the destroyed camp in the square. Something is just wrong there, and an old saying suggests to see who profits. Putin had long claimed that Russians were oppressed in Ukraine, so this story fits him perfectly.
So it is absolutely clear to me that it was a set-up to frame pro-Ukrainian activists and the Kiev government. By whom — by the FSB of course that is Putin. I have been there so I saw it with my own eyes. What’s more, I had been to the separatists camp before, in March, when I tried to have a discussion with the opponents and find a common ground. I found out though that there was no one to talk to there both literally and figuratively. They did not want to talk, and I got an impression there were only idiots there at least in the ranks. So no wonder they were easy to be driven into the building like sheep even though it was obvious it was a trap. But those who drove them inside must have had a goal, and this goal seems to have been a success. Basically, what happened in Odessa is not different in essence from what is going on in the east when the terrorists kill people and there are Russian journalists there in a jiffy reporting of "Ukrainian army shelling civilians". Sometimes the terrorist simply fire at the Ukrainian troops from living quarters to provoke reprisal fire, but it is safer for them to just shell living quarters themselves and blame the military. It is just an order from the FSB to create a certain image that "Ukrainians are kiiling Russians".

This is a common practice against Ukraine actually. I met a girl here in Odessa who had fled from Lugansk and she told me that when they saw a Russian journalist close to a neighborhood it was a sign that this neighborhood would be very soon shelled by the separatists. You may find it difficult to believe that the separatists shell their own city and perhaps their own homes but even when there was peace, those drunkards and drug-addicts did not care, and why would they care if they are paid? However, the commanders were Russian, so they cared even less.
The Russians shot down Boing 777 with the same purpose. It was not a mistake. They did it on purpose.

Putin has many goals:

1. Destruction of Ukraine.
2. Showing Russians that it is bad to topple your government however corrupted it is.
3. Getting rid of potential domestic revolutionaries who go to fight in Ukraine thinking that they are fighting against Nazism (most of them are brainwashed).
4. Preventing Ukraine from fracking in the Donbass region and thus eliminating the need to import gas from Russia.
5. etc.So, everything is good to achieve his goals. Even purposeful killing of his Ukrainian admirers just to say the Ukrainian government did that and justify his actions against Ukraine in the eyes of his people. In 1999 he ordered to blow residential buildings in Russia when he needed a reason for another Chechen war killing innocent Russians, so why would he have pity for Ukrainains?I have also come to this conclusion. The more I hear what ordinary Russians say about it, the more I am persuaded that idiocy is a wide-spread disease among them. It could have been games before the end of August but now it is clear that Russia is waging a war against Ukraine. It does not matter if the war was not proclaimed. Hitler did not declare a war on the USSR in 1941 either. It is absolutely astonishing to see people who refuse to acknowledge the obvious but gladly believe any idiotic statement providing they hear it from Russian television.

 
1) No.
2) Yes.
3) Not sure but I feel that once regular Russian troops took over, we need a respite to regroup. Before it was Russian mercenaries and criminals with some local drunkards, now it is complete Russian regiments. Also, Poroshenko needs to look decent for the West and show that he is not a bloody-thirsty animal like Putin and does something for peace. Finally, we need to exchange prisoners and this is difficult during hostilities. However, after the previous cease-fire we made great progress.

[JohnDearGreen]

A possible scenario, if UN peacekeepers were sent to patrol the border-
This would shine a light on the influx of weapons from Russia and stop or expose the influx of missiles from Russia that are exploding in Ukraine near the border. Ukraine's biggest problem is the separatists' supply line from Russia.

PhotoGuy:
I see your message finally got through to Leonid.  But he could use a few more tips.
http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2014/09/12/7037623/

[Boethius]

This site has various opinions on the current situation in Ukraine.  I am linking to one, and others can be navigated easily -


http://www.ssrresourcecentre.org/2014/08/29/re-assessing-post-cold-war-assumptions-after-russias-gambit-in-ukraine/

[calmissile]

This site has various opinions on the current situation in Ukraine.  I am linking to one, and others can be navigated easily -


http://www.ssrresourcecentre.org/2014/08/29/re-assessing-post-cold-war-assumptions-after-russias-gambit-in-ukraine/

Very well written article.

[Boethius]

The view of a former Russian foreign minister -


http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.cz/2014/09/window-on-eurasia-kremlin-demand-for.html

[JayH]

Ongoing attack--despite ceasefire.The pro-Rus apologists can rationalise the situation further north in the Donbas but the attack on Mauripol is very clearly an overt act of war by Russian forces against Ukraine. There has been ongoing breach of ceasefire by Russian troops.

Quoting-
The bombardment of villages and Sartana # Talakovka under Mariupol killed seven civilians, even sixteen people were injured. Such data are specified in the City Council of Mariupol. Currently working at the scene of the mission representatives # OSCE , and all hospitalized medical assistance in full. Just today was subjected to bombardment checkpoint in the village Talakovka. Victims, the injured and the destruction of infrastructure is not. "Eastern suburbs of Mariupol, including checkpoint in East LMR, not subjected to shelling. According to Staff # ATO , in today's shelling of the victims and the wounded among the troops was not ", - the report of the City Council. Mariupol authorities claim that the current threat of attack on the city is not, the setting on the outskirts of Mariupol controlled. Earlier, it was reported that as a result of fire fighters killed 5 civilians.