More Bad News for Russia

[AkMike]

You support the terrorists puppeteer... 

[AC]

I said long ago-I am against ANY war.

That's a bold faced lie.  You support V. Putin and you therefore support war in Ukraine.  All of your silly denials don't change the facts.

[AkMike]

How We Know Russia's Economic Crisis Has Officially Arrived   



Judging by the lack of economic news in Russia's media, a crisis has arrived.

Just as in Soviet days, state television does not report facts, it conceals them. The official picture is dominated by the war in Ukraine (fuelled by America), Ukraine's economic collapse (ignored by America), and Russia's achievements in sport, ballet and other spheres (envied by America).

But whereas television does not mention the economy, ordinary Russians have been busily changing rubles into dollars, buying anything that has not gone up in price and making contingency plans.

In the first two weeks of the year, when Russia was on holiday, the ruble fell by 17.5% against the dollar. Inflation is up into double figures. The price of oil, Russia's main export, has slid below $50 a barrel, prompting economists to revise their forecasts down. GDP is now expected to contract by between 3% and 5% this year. Russia's credit rating is moving inexorably towards junk.

The government's Zen-like calm betrays a lack of strategy. Russia's president, Vladimir Putin, is shown on television receiving positive reports from regional governors. Yet the fall in oil prices to below $50 a barrel will cost the state budget, which was calculated on the basis of $100 a barrel, 3 trillion rubles ($45 billion), or 20% of planned revenues, according to Anton Siluanov, the finance minister.

He was already planning to lop 10% off the budget, but may now have to cut further. Even if pensions and salaries are raised by 5%, double-digit inflation means that real incomes will decline for the first time since Mr Putin came to power in 2000.

The Kremlin hopes to ride out the crisis, as it did in 2008-09 when GDP contracted by 7.5%. Then the government was able to stimulate demand by increasing public spending and saving indebted firms. It no longer has that option. Russia's reserves are lower than they were four years ago and may last only for a year and a half, at best. Worse, the government has lost credibility.

An increase in interest rates to 17% in December was intended to defend the ruble, but it has not worked. Russians have lost faith in the currency and are starting to withdraw deposits, argues Natalia Orlova, chief economist at Alfa Bank.

The ruble's fall would have been even greater had it not been for the Kremlin telling exporters to sell foreign-currency revenues while also warning large firms not to buy. Yet whatever liquidity the central bank supplies to Russian banks, the money finds its way into the foreign-currency market, putting more pressure on the ruble.

Any injection of liquidity may thus end up not stimulating domestic demand but merely increasing capital outflows. The only way to support the ruble is to limit the provision of liquidity to banks; but that in turn would put banks under pressure. German Gref, the head of Sberbank, Russia's largest state bank, is reportedly warning that a currency crisis could become a "massive" banking crisis.

Faced with capital outflows and falling oil prices, lack of access to foreign markets and its own demographic problems, Russia is unlikely to come out of this crisis fast. Its hope that devaluation would spur import substitution, as after the 1998 default, and so drive growth is unrealistic.

At the time Russia was substituting basic goods that could be produced on spare, outdated equipment left behind by the Soviet economy. The things that Russia imports today cannot rapidly be replaced domestically. That would demand investment which few are willing to risk.

alexei kudrinAlexei Kudrin.

Alexei Kudrin, a former finance minister, and Evsey Gurvich, an economist, argue that Russia's economy cannot be repaired by monetary or fiscal measures. Even weak institutions are a secondary issue. At the heart of Russia's malaise is the weakening of market forces and suppression of competition, which means there is no longer much of a market economy.

The expansion of the state means that, although Russia no longer has Gosplan, its economy is dominated by state or quasi-state firms whose revenues depend not on their economic efficiency but on political contacts. Skewed incentives as well as corruption and a lack of property rights have forced the most efficient companies out of the market, strengthening the position of parasitic and badly managed state firms. Falling oil prices have revealed these defects, not caused them.

As Mr Kudrin and Mr Gurvich explain, Russia's exceptional growth between 1998 and 2008 was essentially imported: it was down to easy money, brought about by rising oil prices and cheap credit. This fuelled consumption that was satisfied by imports and an increase in domestic output.

The government was busy redistributing rents rather than restructuring or modernising the economy. Private firms and the Kremlin opted for quick profits rather than long-term investments. Even in 2009 the government's goal was to minimise the political fallout of the financial crisis, rather than to make the economy more competitive.

Russia's only way out now is to restructure the economy in order to restore the role of markets. Twenty-five years ago this transition was made possible by the collapse of the Soviet Union and change in the Kremlin. In an implicit message to Mr Putin, Mr Kudrin argues that it could now be managed under this presidency, but with a different government. Mr Putin is unconvinced. Even as he ponders his options, the economy continues to slide, whatever the television may not say.


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/russias-economic-crisis-has-officially-arrived-2015-1#ixzz3PIzO53eC

[mendeleyev]

Kudrin wants Medvedev out, that is his real message. He wants back in.

I have always acknowledged Alexei as being one of the sharpest financial minds in Russia, however even he knows that the Medvedev government is carrying out the orders of the Putin economic agenda.

This may, and I do not know for certain, be a sign that the Medvedev government will come to an end. I am not sure if Kudrin would be so bold without an okay from above.

[JayH]

Again,

Ukraine claims that in the past three days, there were 3 servicemen killed and 66 wounded in the fighting.  Over that same period of time, the above posts claims 382 Russian/Separatist corpses.  Seems far fetched to me.  But, then, maybe the Cyborgs aren't killable.

Jone-- the fighting has been the most intense and highest tech so far in this war--the battles bigger and reported from many directions.
There is no doubt the Russian have lost a lot of men over these last few days--and it is hardly likely they will admit it.I have seen numerous reports of a mobile crematorium being used by the Russian forces in Ukraine--in a clear attempt to hide the loss of life of Russian army personal.
On the other hand--Ukraine has consistently advised of those illed and wounded-- and made significent attempts to find out what has happened to any missing personal-- it is as big a contrast of transparency possible.
While the actual numbers of Russians dying in their invasion of Ukraine may not be accurately verifiable-- there are numerous anectdotal reports that are cross referenced confirmations  that can paint the general picture-- that plenty of Russians are being killed!
http://twitter.com/euromaidan/status/557282215001075712
 Follow
 
ЄVROMAYDAN
@ euromaidan
Gerashchenko: According to our data, killing about 300 terrorists.

[cc3]

I have compassion for Ukraine as well. Each an every Ukrainian - I mean for those who suffer from war.

I seem to recall that you had no compassion when I wrote that my Russian-speaking fiancee had been driven from her home and town (Luhansk) by invading Russian mercenaries, led and advised by Russian GRU/spetsnaz agents/troops.

[Doll]

I seem to recall that you had no compassion when I wrote that my Russian-speaking fiancee had been driven from her home and town (Luhansk) by invading Russian mercenaries, led and advised by Russian GRU/spetsnaz agents/troops.

She said she was disgusted by me, I answered that I didn't care. That's all.

[sleepycat]

Even if the real number of Russkies killed is only 1/2 or 1/3 of the number reported, that is still a lot for a few day's worth of fighting.
Have Russian military tactics not evolved at all from the Soviets cannon fodder tactics of WW2?
Especially worrying is if the Russians are losing special forces people rather than just conscript infantry.
That says a lot about the quality of their military if big chunks of their special forces people are getting killed...

I can only imagine the kill ratio on the Russian military if ever they were to go up against an enemy force with first class training and modern weapons. 

[lordtiberius]

Fire and maneue require teamwork, knowing your team and leadership.  The principles of hybrid way belie such cooperation.  Its a dumb way to conduct a war.

[cc3]

She said she was disgusted by me, I answered that I didn't care. That's all.

She is disgusted by all who support the moskali invasion of Ukraine, not just you.

[jone]

Even if the real number of Russkies killed is only 1/2 or 1/3 of the number reported, that is still a lot for a few day's worth of fighting.
Have Russian military tactics not evolved at all from the Soviets cannon fodder tactics of WW2?
Especially worrying is if the Russians are losing special forces people rather than just conscript infantry.
That says a lot about the quality of their military if big chunks of their special forces people are getting killed...

I can only imagine the kill ratio on the Russian military if ever they were to go up against an enemy force with first class training and modern weapons. 

I believe that sending troops into a kill zone, without the best equipment a country can provide, which is apparently the case in the Separatist areas, is a tragic situation.  I believe that the people who ordered them to be there, playing a political game which hides the fact that they are there, are culpable for not supporting their own troops. 

We talked recently about he Kursk and how the Admiralty hid that they even had a problem.  Well, this is much worse.  Essentially the Russian kids are being sent to their deaths by giving them less support than if they were fighting a real war.  The people who ordered them there should be brought to justice and hanged. 

[TheBullRDR]

I believe that sending troops into a kill zone, without the best equipment a country can provide, which is apparently the case in the Separatist areas, is a tragic situation.  I believe that the people who ordered them to be there, playing a political game which hides the fact that they are there, are culpable for not supporting their own troops. 

We talked recently about he Kursk and how the Admiralty hid that they even had a problem.  Well, this is much worse.  Essentially the Russian kids are being sent to their deaths by giving them less support than if they were fighting a real war.  The people who ordered them there should be brought to justice and hanged.

 

[Doll]

She is disgusted by all who support the moskali invasion of Ukraine, not just you.

You said  I didn't have compassion. Show me. I just said I didn't care what she thought about me.

[JayH]

Quote from: jone on Yesterday at 12:44:07 PM
Again,

Ukraine claims that in the past three days, there were 3 servicemen killed and 66 wounded in the fighting.  Over that same period of time, the above posts claims 382 Russian/Separatist corpses.  Seems far fetched to me.  But, then, maybe the Cyborgs aren't killable.
size=12pt]

In each of the deceased military killed 50 militants falls[/size]
\

Value losses Ukrainian military and pro fighters is 1:50. That is, for each deceased participant falls ATO killed 50 militants. This was on ICTV adviser of President of Ukraine Yuri Biryukov. According to him, information about casualties among the militants comes from exploration in morgues and hospitals Donetsk. Recall, Russian human rights activist Yelena Vasilyeva said that in recent days Russia has lost the Donbass hundred Marines and Special Forces.
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/politika/na-kozhnogo-zagiblogo-viyskovogo-prihoditsya-50-vbitih-boyovikiv-biryukov-403771.html

[lordtiberius]

We don't know what the kill ratio is and frankly its not important.  Senator Bookings told Westmoreland that his constituents don't care about the 10 Viet Cong killed.  They care about the 1.  We know Ukrainians are a brave people.  Why aren't we arming them?

[sleepycat]

For once this event is not attributable to that midget mongoloid Putin! 
But since it is still bad new nevertheless so it probably still belong to this thread...

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-sounds-alarm-lake-baikals-water-levels-drop-205950468.html

[JayH]

Running on empty everywhere !
Nah--it is Putins fault! 

[bagalia]

I think this has not hit the group yet. I only picked one page out of many sites available on a search for the generals name.

http://www.sursazilei.ro/ukrainian-army-killed-russian-general/

There are photos available of his dead carcass someplace on social media but I did not search for them as I do not know if that would be allowed here.

[Larry1]

I think this has not hit the group yet. I only picked one page out of many sites available on a search for the generals name.

http://www.sursazilei.ro/ukrainian-army-killed-russian-general/

There are photos available of his dead carcass someplace on social media but I did not search for them as I do not know if that would be allowed here.

Wow, big news.  Although if it wasn't reported on RT.com or the official website of the President of the Russian Federation then it can't possibly be true.

Welcome to RWD.

[bagalia]

Ooops, sorry. That was last years dead Russian general.

The one from yesterday is Peter G. Pavlov.
Major General of the RUSSIAN ARMED FORCES. Operational management of the armed forces (so it is said).
He can be seen in his current state on the facebook upper page of Alexander Gladky.

http://www.facebook.com/alexandr.gladky.9

You need to log into facebook first. I need to say that Alexander is a partisan with the group named "Shadows". These are not very nice people. They do not take prisoners. They assassinate. At various parts of his page there are rather graphic pictures and descriptions (all in Russian).

Edit: And this article in Russian
http://censor.net.ua/photo_news/320659/za_volnovahu_gruppa_ukrainskih_partizan_teni_unichtojila_generalmayiora_vs_rf_petra_pavlova_foto_18

[lordtiberius]

This would explain the recent spate of bombings in Kharkiv:
http://www.nrcu.gov.ua/en/148/587633/

[AkMike]

The one from yesterday is Peter G. Pavlov.
Major General of the RUSSIAN ARMED FORCES. Operational management of the armed forces (so it is said).
He can be seen in his current state on the facebook upper page of Alexander Gladky.

http://censor.net.ua/photo_news/320659/za_volnovahu_gruppa_ukrainskih_partizan_teni_unichtojila_generalmayiora_vs_rf_petra_pavlova_foto_18

And yet another Russian soldier (this time a Gerneal)on vacation that happened to get lost and wander into a war zone.

 They must not teach map reading to the armed forces in the land of the Muskovi. 

 Good! More Cargo 200 for worm food.

[JayH]

From the beginning of the conflict in the Donbass in Ukraine killed more than 6,300 Russian soldiers - Vasiliev


Russian human rights activist Elena Vasileva in an interview with TSN told as a matter of "cargo-200" of the conflict in the Donbas. According to that track extras groups ("Load-200 from Ukraine to Russia" - Ed), which deals with the fate of the dead and wounded Russian soldiers in Ukraine - a 6280 people. Most of the dead soldiers - a military personnel, although in recent years human rights activists began to consider a total loss.
Більше читайте тут: http://tsn.ua/ukrayina/z-pochatku-konfliktu-na-donbasi-v-ukrayini-zaginulo-ponad-6300-rosiyskih-viyskovih-vasilyeva-404281.html

[lordtiberius]

This is a great day for Russia.  They should celebrate it and we who oppose Putin and Russia should own it.  Stop the sugarcoat and speak the truth.  They won and we lost and we will continue to loose until we take the offensive if that is even possible given the tons and tons of aid the West has given.

Do you think Barack will pick the Seahags for racial reasons?

[JayH]

This is a great day for Russia.  They should celebrate it and we who oppose Putin and Russia should own it.  Stop the sugarcoat and speak the truth.  They won and we lost and we will continue to loose until we take the offensive if that is even possible given the tons and tons of aid the West has given.

Do you think Barack will pick the Seahags for racial reasons?

LT-- seriously -give it a break. Today is a tragedy for the lives lost-that's it.