More Bad News for Russia

[sleepycat]

  I still firmly hold the position that it is....blah....blah....blah....

Do you also firmly hold the view that the earth is flat, or all the other planets and the sun orbits the earth?
 

[fathertime]

Do you also firmly hold the view that the earth is flat, or all the other planets and the sun orbits the earth?
 

Thank you for the opportunity to expand on why I believe this to be true. 


I firmly hold that Russia receiving strong dollars for oil is better than them receiving weak dollars for that same oil.  Of course it would be better still (for them) if they received MORE strong dollars than they are currently.  Keep in mind, I'm talking about strong US dollars as it pertains to the dollar's strength to currency's other than the Ruble.  A strong dollar that Russia receives can then be used to buy something in Euros or Pesos, or any other weaker currency (where trading is occurring) , of which there are a lot lately!


 


Fathertime! 

[BillyB]

That's why this thread is called, "Bad News For Russia".  [size=78%] If you want sweet, syrupy nonsense look elsewhere. [/size]

I previously said I don't like what Russia is doing. I previously said I want to see Ukraine prosper and get out from under Russia's foot. How many times do I got to repeat myself to get people to understand? How many thousands of times do you guys have to put Russia down? People got the point the first time. You don't like Russia, you don't like what their doing to Ukraine, and you hope they suffer. We get it.

The forum is more of an article dump site now.  You can tell most people don't even bother reading since most articles rarely bring further discussion.  How many threads are just articles now?  I see a couple just logging in today.

I've notice a few posters speaking out against the cluster fukc of anti Russian articles. Most stay silent and leave. People need to set their personal crusades aside or take it elsewhere for the benefit of the majority here.

[southernX]

billy b I've notice a few posters speaking out against the cluster fukc of anti Russian articles. Most stay silent and leave. People need to set their personal crusades aside or take it elsewhere for the benefit of the majority here.

many are busy with life and loved ones billy , including those of us who have family in ukraine and russia

im not anti russian , just hate how the gov there is conducting itself 

personally i think both forums are a bit lop sided with their input , this one at least has some balance still
SX 

[AkMike]

Let's review things here for a bit BillyB,
 This section of RWD is called "RWD News from the Front", Subsection /Russian Front Discussion/. This thread is called, "More Bad News for Russia".


Many don't get the chance to see the news from the east so it's put up here.  If you want to see the sweet kind loving news of Russian aggression then dig up 'Good News for Russia'.


 If you don't agree with the content, Whatever!  Simply don't look at it.
 Stop grousing because it's not what you personally want to see.


 Personally I  think things are going to get interesting after the ruble crosses the 80/1 mark (probably later today) and really get wild after the 100/1 mark.

[AkMike]

Ouch!  That's gotta hurt bad..
International Business Times: Russian oligarchs lose $11 billion in just 10 trading days due to weak rouble and rising oil prices


http://www.kyivpost.com/article/content/business/international-business-times-russian-oligarchs-lose-11-billion-in-just-10-trading-days-due-to-weak-rouble-and-rising-oil-prices-406102.html

[mendeleyev]

FT:

Your anger doesn't cover for your inability to comprehend what I actually wrote

First, I quote you. If you don't have the intelligence to write something and then not recognize it as your own, stop typing.

Next, I'm not angry at all. I am indignant at your ignorance in the face of your bold theories.

You really do need to travel more if you are going to write about Russia. Your ignorance is appalling.

[JayH]

many are busy with life and loved ones billy , including those of us who have family in ukraine and russia

im not anti russian , just hate how the gov there is conducting itself 

personally i think both forums are a bit lop sided with their input , this one at least has some balance still
SX

SX-- as you know-- it is not about anyone being anti-Russian per se. Many who post here are in the same position as you-with relatives & friends on both side of the border. That is a lot more than a few commenting negatively about posts here can say.

Much as the anti -Ukrainian critics of everything Ukrainian and the pro-Rus excuse makers  don't like it-- we are now in the process of great change-really significant change is happening NOW.It seems despite the weight of material posted-- we have forum fools and trolls who still remain intent to show their ignorance.
As pointed out in other threads--many are now writing of potential outcomes

Quoting-
"First, I think what is clear is that Russia is now facing a much more difficult economic outlook than even a few months ago. The drop in oil prices over the past month, amid the Saudi-Iran schism, seems to have been the game-changer for Moscow – and survival of the regime seems to now be the name of the game (or at least there is serious concern how long Russia’s balance sheet can hold up to ensure social stability)."
http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=20479.msg422010#msg422010

[AkMike]

I suspect that there will be some wild swings in the rubles value when it hit's 100/1.  It's only a psychological benchmark but it might be an important one for the Russian economy. It's beginning to snowball and gain momentum already.

[fathertime]

FT:
First, I quote you. If you don't have the intelligence to write something and then not recognize it as your own, stop typing.

Next, I'm not angry at all. I am indignant at your ignorance in the face of your bold theories.

You really do need to travel more if you are going to write about Russia. Your ignorance is appalling.

You must becoming a real illiterate nutbag or something, given how you 'read' my earlier post, and ran with it!


You are jumping up and down responding to something I did not say...and invoking images of starving old ladies to boot...all the whiile pumping yourself off as a modern day Robin Hood. 


Yeah ironically the overall strength of the dollar DOES benefit Russia since they are receiving strong dollars for their oil...those strong dollars can purchase more goods worldwide than weak dollars would.  Your blindness (and anger) on this point remains stunning.  Now let's see how you misrepresent the point I make next!!


"Indignant"..HA, not anger...yeah right! STFU as YOU would say!


Fathertime! 

[mendeleyev]

Again, you are writing out of ignorance. I am no Robin Hood, but I issue a challenge for you to come to Moscow for 2 weeks. Live in a local neighborhood and do a lot of walking.

Then write.

Until then, what you write about the Russian economy has less value than one kopek.

[fathertime]

Again, you are writing out of ignorance. I am no Robin Hood, but I issue a challenge for you to come to Moscow for 2 weeks. Live in a local neighborhood and do a lot of walking.

Then write.

Until then, what you write about the Russian economy has less value than one kopek.

I can go to 50 countries with rampant poverty, and don't need to entertain your challenge...many of which I've already seen plenty of. None of that changes (the isolated fact)that I wrote regarding strong dollars being better for for oil producing nations (Getting paid in dollars), than weak dollars.  Huff and puff all you need to, but you can't dance around that small point which remains correct. 


It is only your willful ignorance that enables you to continue to write the rubbish that you do, while attributing arguments to me that I did not make.


Fathertime!   

[LAman]

Again, you are writing out of ignorance. I am no Robin Hood, but I issue a challenge for you to come to Moscow for 2 weeks. Live in a local neighborhood and do a lot of walking.

Then write.

Until then, what you write about the Russian economy has less value than one kopek.

Mendy.....there are others here who you should be challenging also.......

What is sad about RWD is people writing here are not offering information.......only affirmation. Feels like we have here the mirror image of RT.

[JayH]

That is just garbage. The opportunity is there to post--why not do it.

I am guessing that you agree with the destructive censorship of the last 24 hours?

Fact is-- a couple of threads with updates -who can it hurt?

Like I said elsewhere--how many times do we have to read the same inane questions about "xyz"site?The smallest effort to search would see existing threads--aand the same people respond with the same answers everytime.
I said it before--there is much in the process right now that anyone interested in the FSU needs to be aware of--regardless .

[sleepycat]

I can go to 50 countries with rampant poverty,

From which one of the 50 did you find your wife from?
 

[krimster2]

Jay,
instead of the copy/paste political articles, many of us would probably find it more interesting if you posted things about your own PERSONAL experiences in Ukraine.

Take for example the topic of “beer", you being an Australian might have a different perspective than those of us who are American in regards to this subject.  I found that Obolon on tap was very smooth and had a nice hop flavor, definitely superior to Obolon in a bottle, and the tap version had a "premium" taste for a product whose brand would be considered to be mediocre .  I have had in the summer months beer from the “beer wagons”, which are street vendors who sell beer by the liter, but you have to bring your own container, I’ve had this both in Kyiv and Sevastopol.  In 1996, when I was enjoying a sabbatical in Kyiv (was my first trip there), after an evening at the opera I would walk over to a restaurant called “PanteGruel” have a late meal and have a few pints from the tap, I tried the Guiness on tap there and loved it and from then on stuck with that,  Guiness in a bottle never tasted even half as good as PantaGreul’s tap variety.

I never found Baltica on tap in Ukraine, Baltica #9 on tap would be interesting. 

So what of your beer experiences Jay?

[Gator]

It is only your willful ignorance that enables you to continue to write the rubbish that you do, while attributing arguments to me that I did not make.

It  is rare to see a sentence with "ignorance" the subject and "enable" the verb.

[Изумруд]

Again, you are writing out of ignorance. I am no Robin Hood, but I issue a challenge for you to come to Moscow for 2 weeks. Live in a local neighborhood and do a lot of walking.

Then write.

Until then, what you write about the Russian economy has less value than one kopek.

Mendy, don't feed trolls!  You should know that from the other site. 

[Gator]

I firmly hold that Russia receiving strong dollars for oil is better than them receiving weak dollars for that same oil.  Of course it would be better still (for them) if they received MORE strong dollars than they are currently.  Keep in mind, I'm talking about strong US dollars as it pertains to the dollar's strength to currency's other than the Ruble.  A strong dollar that Russia receives can then be used to buy something in Euros or Pesos, or any other weaker currency (where trading is occurring) , of which there are a lot lately!

If oil were paid in euros or pounds, how would it matter?    Any other currency?  Not too many currency exchange markets can handle the equivalent of $2.5 billion/day.   

Are you sure all of Russia's oil exports are paid for in dollars?   How about Russia's long term deals such as oil to China or gas to Ukraine?  I have no idea how those long term deals are priced and paid.   You agree that some could be bartered trades.  Do these deals account for daily fluctuations in oil prices set in the oil futures market? 

When undertaking a huge investment in a new pipeline,  long term deals for gas or oil are frequently made concurrently.  Your point would be very valid if, for example, China agreed three years ago  to buy from Russia 0.5 million bbl/day for 20 years from Russia at a fixed price of $100/bbl.  But I doubt  such contracts were done without some adjustment clauses.


Reminds me of 1986 when visiting my friend in Moscow, the Dutch agricultural attaché.  In trying to sell Dutch cheese and butter to the Soviets, the Soviets offered to pay not in currency but only in cement. 

[fathertime]

If oil were paid in euros or pounds, how would it matter?    Any other currency?  Not too many currency exchange markets can handle the equivalent of $2.5 billion/day.   

At long last somebody decides to discuss the issue rather than complain about the right to bring the subject up!


If Russia were paid in another currency that was weaker worldwide it would lesson their ability to parley said currency into goods for their country.  Dollars are extremely strong worldwide right now.  The dollar is at or near all time highs in a lot of currencies right now.  The Canadian Dollar, the Thai Baht, the Brazilian Real, The Mexican Peso, The Russian Ruble,...it is also pretty high against the Euro....there are more than I can easily list. 

Russia is able to bypass its own weak currency by using the dollars it receives from oil sales.   

Are you sure all of Russia's oil exports are paid for in dollars?   How about Russia's long term deals such as oil to China or gas to Ukraine?  I have no idea how those long term deals are priced and paid.   You agree that some could be bartered trades.  Do these deals account for daily fluctuations in oil prices set in the oil futures market? 

When undertaking a huge investment in a new pipeline,  long term deals for gas or oil are frequently made concurrently.  Your point would be very valid if, for example, China agreed three years ago  to buy from Russia 0.5 million bbl/day for 20 years from Russia at a fixed price of $100/bbl.  But I doubt  such contracts were done without some adjustment clauses.

I'd say "ALL" is too strong a word...there will always be some wheeling and dealing on the side, I agree...but generally Russia receives dollars for oil.  Russia has threatened to pull away from the dollar in favor of the Yuan.  That would likely ultimately harm us (THE US) and probably won't help them much in the short term. 


With the low oil prices (and commodities), many of our larger companies have been harmed.  Blue chip companies too....CVX, Chevron (SHares down big)  KMI, Kinder Morgan (down almost 75%) AA, ALCOA,(Down 65%) COP, Conoco Phillips (Down 50%). THat is only a few. Real people, and real money being lost by somebody....I suspect they will all bounce back as well Russia...


Fathertime! 

[JayH]

Ahh Gator--the answer is he does not know !

Really-- is it possible this guy is anything but a troll?

[msmobyone]

Thank you for the opportunity to expand on why I believe this to be true. 


I firmly hold that Russia receiving strong dollars for oil is better than them receiving weak dollars for that same oil.  Of course it would be better still (for them) if they received MORE strong dollars than they are currently.  Keep in mind, I'm talking about strong US dollars as it pertains to the dollar's strength to currency's other than the Ruble.  A strong dollar that Russia receives can then be used to buy something in Euros or Pesos, or any other weaker currency (where trading is occurring) , of which there are a lot lately!


 


Fathertime!

My goodness FT, you have had the simplest of formula demonstrating why your assertion is nonsense - yet you persist

[fathertime]

My goodness FT, you have had the simplest of formula demonstrating why your assertion is nonsense - yet you persist

I've explained my reasoning...YOU have not.    The strong dollar is paid to and then ued by Russia for their oil, they are then able to use that strong dollar to buy from other countries a lot more than their own Ruble would otherwise get them...should be simple, except for a few here!

Ahh Gator--the answer is he does not know !

Really-- is it possible this guy is anything but a troll?

Haha, I guess you turned off your 'ignore' switch again just as soon as I posted!   
 


Fathertime!

[msmobyone]

None of that changes (the isolated fact)that I wrote regarding strong dollars being better for for oil producing nations (Getting paid in dollars), than weak dollars.  Huff and puff all you need to, but you can't dance around that small point which remains correct. 

..and here you are - again -  disappointing whoever taught you maths..

2014 - prior to Crimea ..rouble at approx 35 dollar - oil c.100 usd / barrel = 3500 roubles

2016 - now rouble at 79 / dollar - oil at 30 USD / Barrel  = 2370 roubles - that's FIFTY percent less ...




Be careful throwing around accusations of ignorance whilst your assertions are based on a woeful inability to understand basic sums and even repeat the folly - once it is demonstrated to you 

 

[fathertime]

..and here you are - again -  disappointing whoever taught you maths..

2014 - prior to Crimea ..rouble at approx 35 dollar - oil c.100 usd / barrel = 3500 roubles

2016 - now rouble at 79 / dollar - oil at 30 USD / Barrel  = 2370 roubles - that's FIFTY percent less ...




Be careful throwing around accusations of ignorance whilst your assertions are based on a woeful inability to understand basic sums and even repeat the folly - once it is demonstrated to you 

 

You continue to not get it!




For the point I'm making it wouldn't matter if the Ruble was 100 to 1.  It is being BYPASSED when Russia receives dollars for oil they can convert those dollars directly to whatever currency/country they are dealing with! 


That said, I was never arguing that the declining Ruble was a positive for Russia, because not everything is abou oil/dollars...BUT since most of the world's currencies are also going down pretty fast too oil dollars do MITIGATE the negative effect for Russia since it receives a lot of dollars which it can then spend, with the ruble being out of the equation.   


Fathertime!