More Bad News for Russia

[Muzh]

Great analysis Larry.

[Muzh]

Reality check: Russia now controls the Crimea, Russia is not going to give it back. Everything else is a mute point. Who was right and who was wrong is immaterial any more.

Russia intends to keep Crimea and will use all necessary force of arms to keep it.

Ukraine cannot win a war against Russia to reclaim the Crimean territory and the west will not risk Thermonuclear War with Russia.

Ergo Crimea is now part of Russia. Argument over, case closed. Time to move on.

Eventually, Ukraine will beg the US and NATO to prevent Russia from ceding Crimea back to them.


I think the Tatars will be the eventual owners.


Nice to see you back, Bo. 

[cc3]

TP, I had to laugh at that first link. It is so beyond silly that I hope you only posted it in jest.

Mendy, reviewing the organizations that were the sources of TP's latest two links, i.e., "Washington's Blog", and "Global Research", reveals that TP is simply a propaganda pushing troll for the Putin-led imperialist resurgence of Muscovy. Everybody, check out the hilariously and transparently anti-West nature of these two supposedly western think tanks, with American servers. TP, if this is the best you can do for your moskali masters, you had better give it up and go over to Manny's RUA for joyful anti-West and anti-Ukraine posting. He and Andrewfi will welcome you with open arms, St. George's ribbons, and a basket of double-headed eagles. 

[Larry1]

Great analysis Larry.

Thanks Muzh

[Muzh]

Mendy, reviewing the organizations that were the sources of TP's latest two links, i.e., "Washington's Blog", and "Global Research", reveals that TP is simply a propaganda pushing troll for the Putin-led imperialist resurgence of Muscovy. Everybody, check out the hilariously and transparently anti-West nature of these two supposedly western think tanks, with American servers. TP, if this is the best you can do for your moskali masters, you had better give it up and go over to Manny's RUA for joyful anti-West and anti-Ukraine posting. He and Andrewfi will welcome you with open arms, St. George's ribbons, and a basket of double-headed eagles.

Please don't tell me you have NEVER read and cited the Drudge report in your lifetime.

[fathertime]

Reality check: Russia now controls the Crimea, Russia is not going to give it back. Everything else is a mute point. Who was right and who was wrong is immaterial any more.

Russia intends to keep Crimea and will use all necessary force of arms to keep it.

Ukraine cannot win a war against Russia to reclaim the Crimean territory and the west will not risk Thermonuclear War with Russia.

Ergo Crimea is now part of Russia. Argument over, case closed. Time to move on.

Yup it has been time to move on.  Things may be imperfect, but as long as there is larger nations trying to maintain/gain further dominance, there will be these things cropping up from time to time.  When we (US citizens) start harshly criticizing Russia, we tend to overlook our own misdeeds (Past and Present), which seem to often fly under the radar. 


Fathertime!   

[cc3]

Please don't tell me you have NEVER read and cited the Drudge report in your lifetime.

NEVER! and...don't tell me what I can't tell you in my posts.

I just, one hour ago, took you off  'Ignore', where you have been for the last 6 months. One post from you and I am already regretting it.

[Muzh]

NEVER! and...don't tell me what I can't tell you in my posts.

I just, one hour ago, took you off  'Ignore', where you have been for the last 6 months. One post from you and I am already regretting it.

LMAO


I never had a beef with you. Never went after you. Ever.


You just didn't like me because I was a lefty. PERIOD.


Regret whatever you want, doesn't make any difference to me. 

[AkMike]

The Russian 'Night Wolves' motorcycle gang rolled into Prague and wasn't greeted warmly. 

http://www.rferl.org/media/video/russia-moscow-night-wolves/27724451.html

[Muzh]

The Russian 'Night Wolves' motorcycle gang rolled into Prague and wasn't greeted warmly. 

http://www.rferl.org/media/video/russia-moscow-night-wolves/27724451.html

I loved the Czech finger salute. 

[AkMike]

A not so smart leader of the Russian terrorists fell, hook, line and sinker, for a gag poster at a crossing check point announcing that the invaders can skip waiting in line. "Yakut" was returning from a mission and wanted to get back quickly.. Oops.. He was quickly arrested.

http://www.unian.info/war/1338833-jumping-queue-may-cost-freedom-ato-forces-detain-not-so-smart-militant-leader.html

[Boethius]

Reality check: Russia now controls the Crimea, Russia is not going to give it back. Everything else is a mute point. Who was right and who was wrong is immaterial any more.

Russia intends to keep Crimea and will use all necessary force of arms to keep it.

Ukraine cannot win a war against Russia to reclaim the Crimean territory and the west will not risk Thermonuclear War with Russia.

Ergo Crimea is now part of Russia. Argument over, case closed. Time to move on.

None of which is relevant to Mendy's point.


The point is not whether or not Crimea will form part of Ukraine.  No one believes that, including Ukrainians.  The point is that the territory was taken in an aggressive action contrary to international law, and, for that, Russia, and Crimea, must face sanctions.

[Boethius]

Lets face it if Russia wanted to overrun Ukraine they could do so in around 10 days, fortunately that is not going to happen. By not so covertly (worst kept secret) Russia is equipping and supplying the breakaway regions. The fight is not yet over at least one more major offensive is coming, there is an old adage Use it or Loose it and there is a lot of men and equipment being massed on both sides.

Who will prevail is never assured a battle plan rarely survives the first shot.

Ukraine the Ukrainian leaders and those nationalists need to get over the loss of Crimea, it is now part of Russia and just like Jerusalem is now the capitol of Israel, Russia will never relinquish it.

The question is are the Ukrainian leaders the nationalists willing to mount an all out invasion and risk a Nuclear response in a failed attempt to get it back? Most would agree that Israel would use thermonuclear weapons in the face of overwhelming odds and or a surprise attack to retake Jerusalem. Why not the local commanders who have been given direct and operational control of their missiles?

Where are you getting this BS about Ukraine wanting to mount an invasion/nuclear response?

Russia reportedly has lost more than a thousand of soldiers in a low level fight war close to its border. where half the population (at least in Donetsk) was pro Russian.  Do you really believe it would be willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of soldiers for an invasion of Ukraine?  The US was able to overtake Iraq very quickly.  Look how well that turned out.

[Belvis]

Russia has lost thousands of soldiers in a low level fight war close to its border. where half the population (at least in Donetsk) was pro Russian.  Do you really believe it would be willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of soldiers for an invasion of Ukraine?  The US was able to overtake Iraq very quickly.  Look how well that turned out.

Russia has lost  thousands of soldiers only in  Ukrainian part of Facebook

I'd like to elaborate on the debated invasion in Ukraine. To understand how fantastic or not it sounds one should realize the motivation of Russia, first of all. The driving force for russian-ukrainian conflict was the struggle for the Slav flock of the same blood. International borders after SU disintegration had divided the flock of the same origin, history and culture.  The situation could be settled with the time going, the borders and geography form the nations.
    However the last 25 years failed to tranform population of Ukraine into the united nation, non-uniformity over West-East was visible enough.  Then, when the coup or let's say revolution occured in Kiev in Feb. 2014, some parts of Ukraine decided to stop identify themselves with Ukraine because they feel endangered by Ukrainian nationalists who came to power. Yes, that's unlawful bias in minds but here we've got the eternal dilemma what is more signnificant, law or people. OK, Russia never lived strictly according laws, but tuned with own concepts about justice, or just yielded rough force. So Russians welcomed the reunification with the part of Ukrainian population who decided to be back Russians. In this sense I think Donbass region is the cut-off chunk from Ukraine, because folk there is not associated anymore themselves with Ukrainians.
One has to understand that division Russian/Ukrainian goes not along ethnic signs, it rather concerns global vision of future, respect to history, political preferences.
     If Ukraine will have population who considered themselves Ukrainians, then no problems appear in future, and any talk about the invasion would be pretty silly. However, if Ukraine will split again on the issue of self identification to the extent of civil war,   I would not exclude the intervention of Russia on behalf of pro-russian side of inner Ukrainian conflict.

2016 Moscow Victory Day Parade, May 9. Pleasant surprise.

[Boethius]

There are plenty of reports, even in Russian media, of the soldiers who came home in body bags from "training exercises" which happened to occur in Donbas.

You are looking at the issue through the prism of Russian nationalism, Belvis.


Ukrainians do view themselves as "Ukrainian".  Countless polls have demonstrated this.  You also saw it when UW, such as mies and missAmeno, posted here.


What Ukraine does not have is a state.  It is run by corrupt oligarchs.  That, plus Russians who came in and began fighting in Donbas, is what started the war.  Corrupt Western Ukrainian politicians came to take the mines.  Akhmetov and Party of Regions supporters who were profiting from those mines objected.  That was the basis of the "conflict".  Then of course, Russians, all with ties to military intelligence, happened to be in Donetsk directing the firefight - Girkin, Borodai, Bashirov, Kavtaradze, Antiyufeev.  Funny how all those Moscow boys were "vacationing" in Donetsk, huh?


Now, Russia may have a state, but it is also run by corrupt oligarchs.  Just of a different flavour.  The only difference is, Russia has resources Ukraine does not.

[TigerPaws]

Where are you getting this BS about Ukraine wanting to mount an invasion/nuclear response?

Russia reportedly has lost more than a thousand of soldiers in a low level fight war close to its border. where half the population (at least in Donetsk) was pro Russian.  Do you really believe it would be willing to sacrifice tens of thousands of soldiers for an invasion of Ukraine?  The US was able to overtake Iraq very quickly.  Look how well that turned out.

You may want to reread my post, I said "The question is are the Ukrainian leaders the nationalists willing to mount an all out invasion and risk a Nuclear response in a failed attempt to get it back? This is a rhetorical question to a nonexistent possibility. Ukraine has neither the will or ability to dislodge Russia from the Crimea. Russia has stationed intermediate range Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Crimea as a deterrent and the the Russian Military has given control of these weapons to the local commanders.

Ukraine is on the verge of becoming a failed state, the U.S. and by default Europe is looking for a way to extricate themselves from the country.The IMF and other Banksters are not likely to loan them any more so it is only a matter of time.

My point is that all of the arguments pro or con annexation of Crimea are now a mute point. Sanctions against Russia have hurt Europe just as much as they have Russia. France and Germany want to unilaterally end the sanctions and return to normal trade.

When not if this occurs the sanctions will have failed.   

[krimster2]

There are six nuclear reactors in Zaporizhia that are almost identical to the one that exploded in Chernobil. Chernobil’s reactor exploded accidentally when its coolant was cut-off during a test.
There are simple and effective ways that could’ve have made the Chernobil disaster 10X worse than what it was, if it was deliberately planned in advance, but I won’t mention these details here.  5 trained people in each reactor is all you would need to deliberately do this.  Ukrainian internal security has already stopped two attempts by Right Sector to take over these reactors, but they were not serious efforts, maybe just testing security responses (Right Sector has thousands of members with extensive combat experience and weapons)...

Take a look here at the wind flow patterns:

http://www.windfinder.com/report/zaporizhia_aero

Six giant radioactive clouds would primarily head for Krim and southern Russia, potentially 60-100 times the level of Chernovil radiation, millions of people would have to be evacuated in a very short time and the land would not be inhabitable for hundreds of years.

THIS is Ukraine’s nuclear option, and afterwards it could claim no national responsibility, that it was the work of terrorists, and they’re working “really hard” to apprehend them.

and based on the previous 2 attempts, Right Sector has quite a bit of information on the security of these reactors, and certainly has supporters working on the inside.

This is ultimately what will prevent the land bridge to Krim

[BillyB]

Six giant radioactive clouds would primarily head for Krim and southern Russia, potentially 60-100 times the level of Chernovil radiation, millions of people would have to be evacuated in a very short time and the land would not be inhabitable for hundreds of years.

THIS is Ukraine’s nuclear option,

Taking a nuclear shit in one's house and hoping the stink will blow downwind to the neighbor to irritate him isn't a bright idea. Ukraine will do more damage to itself than Crimea and risk losing Western support. They may blame it on terrorists but you can be sure Russian media will place the blame on the "fascists" running the Ukrainian government.

This is ultimately what will prevent the land bridge to Krim

Putin may even get international sympathy and have a valid excuse to invade Ukraine based on an attack on Russia and it's troops with nuclear fallout. After Putin takes Ukraine, he won't need that bridge to Crimea anymore since he'll have something more valuable.

[AkMike]

Polish Artist Jerzy Bohdan Szumczyk has unveiled a statue "Komm Frau" [Come Woman] to commemorate the Soviet soldiers rape of thousands of women on their way to Berlin in the ending years of the war..

Needless to say that Moscow's a bit miffed..

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/polish-artist-jerzy-bohdan-szumczyks-monument-to-hate/

[TigerPaws]

Polish Artist Jerzy Bohdan Szumczyk has unveiled a statue "Komm Frau" [Come Woman] to commemorate the Soviet soldiers rape of thousands of women on their way to Berlin in the ending years of the war..

Needless to say that Moscow's a bit miffed..

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/polish-artist-jerzy-bohdan-szumczyks-monument-to-hate/

Atrocities happen, that is a fact of War, it is not right but there are no Just Wars, only those which are occasionally unavoidable.

Every side can point fingers at the other, but is always the winners who write the history and that is always in their favor.

[AkMike]

Jeesh.. I thought that the Soviets won all by themselves! 

[krimster2]

“Taking a nuclear shit in one's house and hoping the stink will blow downwind to the neighbor to irritate him isn't a bright idea. “

Nor was it a 'bright idea’ to cut off the flow of coolant to reactor #4 in Chernovil, but it was done!  It doesn’t matter if we think it’s good or not good, it’s a fact that Right Sector and/or friends have made at least two half-hearted attempts already, IMHO to just test the security response, Google can verify this!!

There is a well understood weather pattern around Krim, cold northern air flows south west from the north of Russia until it collides with the warmer air blowing in off the Black Sea, this creates a circular swirl of air currents that then goes back up to the North East, this is more pronounced in Autumn when the temperature drops, it’s the perfect weather pattern to carry a radioactive cloud  from Zaporizhia first southward through Krim and after it collides with air coming in off the Black Sea then heads up through the North East through the south of Russia, a little bit of Googling and you’ll see some visualizations of these flows.

If it gets to the point that Right Sector decides to do this, then they are WAY past the point of worrying about what someone outside of Ukraine will think about it.

If they time it right and the core is maximized with waste products and they can get all 6 and optimize a few more details, then Russia will have no choice but to COMPLETELY evacuate Krim and Southern Russia for the next 6 centuries, possibly the whole country collapses as a result.

A second possibility is the Zaporizhia nuclear waste processing facility, which has 1,000‘s of tons of raw and processed radioactive waste, a few years ago, read about what happened when just a few grams were involved:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goi%C3%A2nia_accident

Zaporizhia has 1000‘s of KG of separated caesium in metal cylinders secured in bunkers with padlocks, a few years ago one was stolen and confiscated at the Simferopol airport, because the thief’s partner felt cheated and turned him in!

 

[JayH]

 Russia took offshore until the end of 2014 more than 1, 3 trillion. US dollars, writes The Guardian. This is more than the same period brought China, whose economy is eight times more than the Russian economy.

You fall out of his chair to learn how much money was stolen by Putin and his gang!

http://www.amn.com.ua/blogy/vy-upadete-so-stula-uznav-skolko-deneg-bylo-ukradeno-putynym-y-ego-bandoj/

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/08/offshore-finance-emerging-countries-russia-david-cameron-summit

[JayH]

Nothing improving in Russia as the day of reckoning looms on the horizon !

Russia’s Gloomy Prospects

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/crony-capitalism-hurting-russian-economy-by-anders-aslund-and-simon-commander-2016-05

[JayH]

“Taking a nuclear shit in one's house and hoping the stink will blow downwind to the neighbor to irritate him isn't a bright idea. “
Nor was it a 'bright idea’ to cut off the flow of coolant to reactor #4 in Chernovil, but it was done!  It doesn’t matter if we think it’s good or not good, it’s a fact that Right Sector and/or friends have made at least two half-hearted attempts already, IMHO to just test the security response, Google can verify this!!

Your combination of unrelated events is such bs it is hard to believe the degree of your delusions.In the same category  that 9/11 never happened and the moon landing was faked! Wait-that is what a few of your deluded pro-Russian syncopants believe.

One side has consistently shown respect for human lives-- and it is not Russia.

Fact is- any nuclear issue at this time would come from Russia on some bs pretence. As it stands-the only country abiding the Budapest agreement is Ukraine- but   they are now moving to rectify that piece of trust and bad judgment.