Putin is No Hitler

[jone]

Just Sayin: 

If Putin had a clear head, wasn't in the midst of the Olympics and had time to think about things, I am willing to bet he would not have taken Crimea.  In retrospect, things were out of control in his neighboring country, which just months before had averted a collision course with Russian policies by promising not to affiliate with the EU.  Now with Maidan in the forefront and the Berkut hightailing it back to Crimea and the East with blood on their hands - and probable FSB participation in the deaths of the Maidan activists, his pet puppet Yanukovych was running for his life .... to Russia.  This was probably the scenario from hell, rising up to haunt Russia for its past misdeeds in the short life of Ukraine, the State.

Angela Merkel said it best:  He's not in his right mind!

The best scenario that Russia could hope for would be that Maidan would turn into the Orange Revolution, which would fizzle out in a couple of years and it would be business as usual.  A worse scenario would be that Russia would have an active role in the future of Ukrainian affairs, if not for the gas subsidy and the lease of the naval base, but also of the joint venture partnerships across defense and other industries.  While Ukraine would struggle to embrace Western values, Uncle Boris could always be there, explaining that Ukraine was really a lost part of Russia waiting to come home.

But Putin saw himself more than just the elected leader of Russia.  He saw himself as someone capable of restoring Russia to her preeminence before the fall of Lenin.  He considered himself to be the master strategist, above the game.  The Chess Master who could win with strategy.  Until he made a mistake .....

Many believe that Crimea happened because Russia was caught off guard.  1.  They didn't believe Yanukovych would fall - and if he did, not as quickly as he did.  2.  They had no devised strategy for failure in Ukraine.  Clearer heads had not prevailed.  And 3:  Russia is becoming more and more nationalistic and the forces within his own country were pushing him into precipitous action.

If I had to guess, I would say that the decision to annex Ukraine came between the days when Russia, along with Western diplomats convinced Yanukovych to yield power AND to stage new elections in December.   (That was the original determination and Russia was on board at that time.  I would guess that they felt secure that by December they could, once again, at least partially control the outcome.)  Then the Rada decides that they will hold elections in May! O.M.G!   

What do we do now???????  Was taking Crimea and infiltrating the East really a set plan at that time?  I don't believe so.    Instead, as has been alluded to in other threads, Soviet tactics were revived and the plan was to overthrow Kyiv.  And the best place to start was where the population consisted mostly of retired Russian naval and military personnel and had a majority pro-Russian sentiment.  It is my belief that the hastily drawn up plan to infiltrate Crimea was only given the green light when the Rada moved up the elections.

To prosecute the deal to the fullest, the Russian Army could not stop until it ran into the border of Poland - or at least the Dneiper.   Only then could Russia really keep control over the people that lived there.  Do you all remember Putin asking why other countries didn't take part of Ukraine and just stop the country from existing by parsing it out?  He did mention that as a trial balloon.

Prospects for a Westernized Ukraine did not threaten Putin, it terrorized him.  Everything he has sought to accomplish in his second term as Russia's leader was threatened by this one political act.  And rather than rise to the occasion, he fell to his fear and unleashed his troops.

Putin is no Adolf Hitler.  Hitler had blind ambition to make Eastern Europe a German playground with 'lebansraum'.   The territorial ambitions of Hitler were known and prosecuted by his staff years before they rolled out in the foreign policy arena and battlefields.   I think Putin made the decision to invade and annex Crimea in a series of two or three days, maybe even just one night.

Ultimately everyone comes back to reality.  The simple reality is that Ukraine did not disintegrate as I'm sure many of his advisers told him would happen.  (We had a number of posters on this forum who crowed that Ukraine would exist no more within six months.  Remember?)  The simple fact is that, in spite of all of the propaganda, and deception and saber rattling, the Ukrainian people remained loyal to Kyiv and the idea that Ukraine's future lay with Western European governing strategies.

To fulfill the strategy decided upon in that short window of time in February, Moscow had to control all of Eastern and Southern Ukraine to make the policy plausible.  I'm sure some strategist told him; "Well, if we don't get Eastern and Southern Ukraine, we'll still have Crimea and that will sit well with the Russian people."

In so little a window to decide, no one really thought what would happen if Russia did not control Southern Ukraine.  Crimea would be cut off.   Russia accounted for only 1/7th of the tourist industry in Crimea before 2014.  Now it consists of virtually all of the tourist trade, the coinage of Crimea's business.  Water, power, gas, all come through Ukraine to Crimea.  How could Crimea sustain an agricultural industry without vast amounts of water channeled through to its farm lands?  Such operational plans take years to coalesce.  This operation took only days to plan and precipitate. 

So what went wrong?  Plenty.  Ultimately the largest thing that went wrong for Putin is that the Ukrainians kept their heads and played for enough time to get their leadership issues settled.   The opportune time for Putin to 'Protect his Russian speakers in the East' would have been around May 5th.  Ukrainian leadership was not yet in place.  The separatists were clearly in control of two regions.  And the Russian military had no opposition in front of it. 

The decision to go or not to go:  Ultimately this was Putin's decision.  Were he to go, he would have had to come out from his deceptive front and stage a clear invasion of a neighboring country.  Ukraine would have had to throw everything they had at the Russian tanks and planes coming in - so Russia would have had to attack with everything they had to prevent it.  It would have resulted in a full scale war, with Ukraine losing and Russia occupying.  Putin would have been equated with Hitler by the world. 

Confronted with the possibility of a clear aggression on his part, and the ramifications both to his own image (after all, did he not just prove himself the great statesman on the Olympic stage?) and to his country forced him to back away.    Most of the battle would have been fought on land occupied by Russian speakers.  And Russia was not immune to counter attack at an undefended border.  The risk of great casualties was too evident.  The people of Ukraine were not ready to welcome Russians as saviors. 

Putin's choice of 'No Go' will be a large factor in how people perceive him in the future.  He may be perceived in many ways, but he is no Hitler.

[fathertime]

Then as soon as the move is made, Russia makes a grandstand statement with the Army it has set up just across the border stating that if Ukraine makes any move to dislodge the occupiers that Russia will invade.There is absolutely no desire by Russia to negotiate.  Unless it gets everything it wants:  Ukraine as a subservient client state................  Mark my words.  Putin will invade.  He has no choice.  I would like very much to be wrong.  But on these things, I'm usually not. This is a full-on Russian operation.  But the results desired are no where near enough to overthrow the regional government.  Russia has no choice but to try to take things to the next level.I stand by my statements that Putin will invade.

When I raised valid questions and disagreed vigorously with these sort of proclamations by you and others, you had a hissy fit.....and made it seem like I wasn't even entitled to give my UNPOPULAR dissenting opinion at the time.   Well...here it is months later and you are all but admitting you were mistaken....just as I thought would be the case as this response to your quote shows:

  I still hold the position that Russia would have taken the parts of Ukraine that it wanted right away if that is what they intended on doing.  Nobody or nothing would have stopped them.   Fathertime!

Maybe...even if you didn't agree with the opinion I was stating months ago should have not labeled it as 'naive'....As it turns out, it is coming to pass.  Or maybe it was just DUM LUCK?

Of course I do agree with you now because Putin IS NOT HITLER...never was.   
     
Fathertime!   

[jone]

I was wrong.  No question about it.  Happy I was. 

The simple fact is that I could not believe that Putin would leave himself so exposed. 

He has.  Too bad for him.

[jone]

Now, Fathertime,

Would you like me to point out the litany of things you have been wrong about, Mr. Win/Win?  You, who sat there telling all of the people with Ukrainian relatives who were scared that they weren't going to be alive how this whole situation would be a 'Win' for Ukraine?

I have absolutely no respect for you.  You are not a classy man.

[fathertime]

I was wrong.  No question about it.  Happy I was. 

The simple fact is that I could not believe that Putin would leave himself so exposed. 

He has.  Too bad for him.

Ok...well i'm glad YOU admitted it at least...others won't.


I don't think it is too bad for him though....once again this will be unpopular, but I think he is playing it well overall. Not that he is a nice guy, but when you look at results...he got them...and frankly I think he has reluctant but tacit approval from much of the West.   

Now, Fathertime,

Would you like me to point out the litany of things you have been wrong about, Mr. Win/Win?  You, who sat there telling all of the people with Ukrainian relatives who were scared that they weren't going to be alive how this whole situation would be a 'Win' for Ukraine?

I have absolutely no respect for you.  You are not a classy man.

What do I care if you have respect for me or think i'm 'classy'?  The fact remains....you attempted to be a "Mr Know-it-all" and brush aside other opinions that you found odious.  As it turns out you were FLAT WRONG. 


I don't mind if you talk about where I was mistaken...I didn't try to drown rudely drown out other opinions through condescension and other means...like you did...so go ahead point out how wrong I was!     


 Eventually this crisis will pass, and as both nations move on they will both have benefits.

Fathertime!   

[Shadow]

The idea that Putin ever wanted to take over Ukraine is laughable. He had enough opportunity to do so, and it did not happen.
When the crisis started Putin weighed his options. A closer tie with the EU and full support to raise the economy might in 20 years (by the time negotiations for renewal of the lease on Sevastopol) lead to candidate membership, and this could bring danger to the extension of the lease.
Crimea has alway been considered as extremely important and should not be underestimaed.

Weighing the idea of paying the lease to a hostile country with the risk of losing renewal or taking over the area and spending the same amount on economical support, the second option was more secure.
The sanctions were expected, as were the battle cries.

The Donbass area is a different scenario alltogether, as that would clearly violate the souvereignity of Ukraine, where the procedures and laws regarding Crimea were murky enough to get away with.
Apart from that, the gain from adding that area would be minimal considering the downsides.

So as much as people try to tell Putin made a mistake, he got what he wanted and that is no mistake.

[calmissile]

He only got Crimea temporarily.  When it is recovered by Ukraine he is going to have neither Crimea or a warm water port!!  Remember, Putin tore up the lease on the port.  Futhermore Ukraine will probably demand that the cost of the damages (to Ukraine) will be claimed in the international courts.  Ukraine is too busy trying to get the Russians and malcontents out of East Ukraine before they can deal with the Crimea issue.

It's all about timing!

[The Natural]

Weighing the idea of paying the lease to a hostile country with the risk of losing renewal or taking over the area and spending the same amount on economical support, the second option was more secure.
The sanctions were expected, as were the battle cries.

A correct assumption in my opinion. Furthermore, the Ukrainian crisis is used by Washington to get to Putin which is not obedient to them like western Europe. The regime in Kiev is a puppet regime. It remains to be seen if Moscow will continue to stand up to Washington or go back to the 90's when assets were sold cheap to oligarks and the regime was obedient to the west. If Moscow backs Down, ordinary People in Russia will soon find themselves as bad off as back then. Austerity is what is waiting for the Ukrainian People. If he continues to be strong, we risk a hot war, possibly nuclear as some of the fools in Washington believe a first strike contained Nuclear option is winable. If that happens, we're all toast.

[Wayne]

Why is this very political post in this section of the forum?

[Faux Pas]

Just Sayin: 

Really jone? Did we need another thread on this topic? I can sum it up for you in a paragraph:

Putin who made such great end roads on the world's stage with the Olympics and embarrassing Obama over Syria was completely humiliated when Ukraine of all places rejected his stooge (Yankukovic) and rejected the supposed Russian 'generosity'. Putin is no Hitler but he is a raging egomaniac and this embarrassment would not be tolerated. Ukraine must pay and pay dearly. He's no Hitler but, he will not hesitate to use Gestapo tactics

[Shadow]

He only got Crimea temporarily.  When it is recovered by Ukraine he is going to have neither Crimea or a warm water port!!  Remember, Putin tore up the lease on the port.  Futhermore Ukraine will probably demand that the cost of the damages (to Ukraine) will be claimed in the international courts.  Ukraine is too busy trying to get the Russians and malcontents out of East Ukraine before they can deal with the Crimea issue.

It's all about timing!

Ukraine will not go to war with Russia, and that is what is will take.

[Shadow]

Really jone? Did we need another thread on this topic? I can sum it up for you in a paragraph:

Putin who made such great end roads on the world's stage with the Olympics and embarrassing Obama over Syria was completely humiliated when Ukraine of all places rejected his stooge (Yankukovic) and rejected the supposed Russian 'generosity'. Putin is no Hitler but he is a raging egomaniac and this embarrassment would not be tolerated. Ukraine must pay and pay dearly. He's no Hitler but, he will not hesitate to use Gestapo tactics

Better turn that around. Obama was raging due to the Olympics and what happened in Syria so he made Putin pay by removing Yanukovich in Ukraine and making it a puppet government.
Makes just a much sense, if not more.

[Faux Pas]

Better turn that around. Obama was raging due to the Olympics and what happened in Syria so he made Putin pay by removing Yanukovich in Ukraine and making it a puppet government.
Makes just a much sense, if not more.

I haven't discounted that scenario either but, Obama didn't remove Yanko but, Obama was able to cause Putin problems in Ukraine. However, that doesn't negate my statement about Putin either.

[sleepycat]

Ukraine will not go to war with Russia, and that is what is will take.

True, but Ukraine can make life difficult for Crimea by continuing to restrict water supply and electricity, forcing Russia to waste billions more to build new water reservoirs and power stations.

[Shadow]

True, but Ukraine can make life difficult for Crimea by continuing to restrict water supply and electricity, forcing Russia to waste billions more to build new water reservoirs and power stations.

Once the money from the EU is paid up, they can always turn to Russia again.

[Boethius]

A correct assumption in my opinion. Furthermore, the Ukrainian crisis is used by Washington to get to Putin which is not obedient to them like western Europe. The regime in Kiev is a puppet regime. It remains to be seen if Moscow will continue to stand up to Washington or go back to the 90's when assets were sold cheap to oligarks and the regime was obedient to the west. If Moscow backs Down, ordinary People in Russia will soon find themselves as bad off as back then. Austerity is what is waiting for the Ukrainian People. If he continues to be strong, we risk a hot war, possibly nuclear as some of the fools in Washington believe a first strike contained Nuclear option is winable. If that happens, we're all toast.

If you truly believe that (I don't), better a puppet to Western powers than to Russian powers.

[Boethius]

The idea that Putin ever wanted to take over Ukraine is laughable. He had enough opportunity to do so, and it did not happen.
When the crisis started Putin weighed his options. A

So as much as people try to tell Putin made a mistake, he got what he wanted and that is no mistake.

Oh, Russia would have gone on to attempt to annex "New Novorossiya", had the West not introduced sanctions.  Business interests in Russia were not happy with that.  Full sanctions would have been far worse, and Russia does not wish to be a pariah state.


Now that Kyiv has not capitulated, we are even seeing a less bellicose response in the controlled Russian media.  They have even stopped referring to the government in Kyiv as a junta. 

[GQBlues]

Once the money from the EU is paid up, they can always turn to Russia again.

Paid up?!? LMAO! Or, as US Congressman Rohrabacher said, "Riiiiiight"

You just don't hire 'mothers with flowers' to start a revolution and expect to be paid back

[ghost of moon goddess]

... They have even stopped referring to the government in Kyiv as a junta.

They have gone even 'further' --- part of President Putin's address to Jewish leaders that was devoted to the revival of Nazi ideas (in Ukraine???) along with his 'unwise' remark on Goebbels' talent have been deleted from a transcript of his speech.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/putin-calls-goebbels-a-talented-man-at-meeting-with-rabbis/

[fathertime]

Oh, Russia would have gone on to attempt to annex "New Novorossiya", had the West not introduced sanctions. Business interests in Russia were not happy with that.  Full sanctions would have been far worse, and Russia does not wish to be a pariah state.
 

I don't think so...if Russia had really wanted the rest of Ukraine, they had their chance and could have done it lightening quick, any sanctions probably would have been watered down.   They didn't bother, probably mostly because they would have had an endless bloody mess on their hands with a mostly unwilling people, and I do believe the west would have done something to help make sure the ensuing insurgency was particularly painful.   They took Crimea and are not subject to many sanctions for that specifically....and there isn't much bloody mess..


Fathertime!     

[Boethius]

That must be why their secret service trained and paid provocateurs in "New Novorossiya" (as defined by Putin), and they had tanks and troops amassed on the borders.


The sanctions imposed after Crimea had an immediate effect on the ruble and Russian markets.  Russian business leaders were making their views known loud and clear.  That is why there was no annexation to protect "Russians in peril".

[fathertime]

That must be why their secret service trained and paid provocateurs in "New Novorossiya" (as defined by Putin), and they had tanks and troops amassed on the borders.

No. Those troops/tanks did serve a purpose OTHER than invading....Russia's goal was to help try to stir up enough unrest to pressure Ukraine's govt. to give those Eastern regions more autonomy....they probably won't get all they were hoping for...but they obviously weren't an invasion force...the evidence is they didn't invade and there were never enough troops in place to occupy the whole of Ukraine, there could have been, had Russia been serious about invading...the sanctions and condemnations were 100% predictable...and if anything rather hollow. 


Fathertime!   

[Belvis]

Oh, Russia would have gone on to attempt to annex "New Novorossiya", had the West not introduced sanctions.  Business interests in Russia were not happy with that.  Full sanctions would have been far worse, and Russia does not wish to be a pariah state.

I don't think the sanctions had any effect on Putin's actions, though they were taken into account of course.  Much more important that Novorossiya is relatively new conception which has not got the status of national idea as it was with Crimea. Novorossiya, not state but idea,  is a method to control Ukraine, budget method I must note.
   If Novorossiya becomes russian national obsession nobody in Russia will care about sanctions or pariah state fate, russians  get used to this status in the past. But right now russians incline  to limit their interference to covered military aid and public political assistance to create the agent of influence within Ukraine.

[BillyB]

I don't think the sanctions had any effect on Putin's actions,

I can agree to that. If east Ukrainian citizens picked up arms and joined the militia to start a major civil war and win against West Ukrainians, Putin would gladly accept Ukraine into his arms regardless of sanctions. Sanctions doesn't seem to motivate Putin into returning Crimea. Ukraine is worth much more.

[lordtiberius]

Just Sayin: 

If Putin had a clear head, wasn't in the midst of the Olympics and had time to think about things, I am willing to bet he would not have taken Crimea.  In retrospect, things were out of control in his neighboring country, which just months before had averted a collision course with Russian policies by promising not to affiliate with the EU.  Now with Maidan in the forefront and the Berkut hightailing it back to Crimea and the East with blood on their hands - and probable FSB participation in the deaths of the Maidan activists, his pet puppet Yanukovych was running for his life .... to Russia.  This was probably the scenario from hell, rising up to haunt Russia for its past misdeeds in the short life of Ukraine, the State.

Angela Merkel said it best:  He's not in his right mind!

The best scenario that Russia could hope for would be that Maidan would turn into the Orange Revolution, which would fizzle out in a couple of years and it would be business as usual.  A worse scenario would be that Russia would have an active role in the future of Ukrainian affairs, if not for the gas subsidy and the lease of the naval base, but also of the joint venture partnerships across defense and other industries.  While Ukraine would struggle to embrace Western values, Uncle Boris could always be there, explaining that Ukraine was really a lost part of Russia waiting to come home.

But Putin saw himself more than just the elected leader of Russia.  He saw himself as someone capable of restoring Russia to her preeminence before the fall of Lenin.  He considered himself to be the master strategist, above the game.  The Chess Master who could win with strategy.  Until he made a mistake .....

Many believe that Crimea happened because Russia was caught off guard.  1.  They didn't believe Yanukovych would fall - and if he did, not as quickly as he did.  2.  They had no devised strategy for failure in Ukraine.  Clearer heads had not prevailed.  And 3:  Russia is becoming more and more nationalistic and the forces within his own country were pushing him into precipitous action.

If I had to guess, I would say that the decision to annex Ukraine came between the days when Russia, along with Western diplomats convinced Yanukovych to yield power AND to stage new elections in December.   (That was the original determination and Russia was on board at that time.  I would guess that they felt secure that by December they could, once again, at least partially control the outcome.)  Then the Rada decides that they will hold elections in May! O.M.G!   

What do we do now???????  Was taking Crimea and infiltrating the East really a set plan at that time?  I don't believe so.    Instead, as has been alluded to in other threads, Soviet tactics were revived and the plan was to overthrow Kyiv.  And the best place to start was where the population consisted mostly of retired Russian naval and military personnel and had a majority pro-Russian sentiment.  It is my belief that the hastily drawn up plan to infiltrate Crimea was only given the green light when the Rada moved up the elections.

To prosecute the deal to the fullest, the Russian Army could not stop until it ran into the border of Poland - or at least the Dneiper.   Only then could Russia really keep control over the people that lived there.  Do you all remember Putin asking why other countries didn't take part of Ukraine and just stop the country from existing by parsing it out?  He did mention that as a trial balloon.

Prospects for a Westernized Ukraine did not threaten Putin, it terrorized him.  Everything he has sought to accomplish in his second term as Russia's leader was threatened by this one political act.  And rather than rise to the occasion, he fell to his fear and unleashed his troops.

Putin is no Adolf Hitler.  Hitler had blind ambition to make Eastern Europe a German playground with 'lebansraum'.   The territorial ambitions of Hitler were known and prosecuted by his staff years before they rolled out in the foreign policy arena and battlefields.   I think Putin made the decision to invade and annex Crimea in a series of two or three days, maybe even just one night.

Ultimately everyone comes back to reality.  The simple reality is that Ukraine did not disintegrate as I'm sure many of his advisers told him would happen.  (We had a number of posters on this forum who crowed that Ukraine would exist no more within six months.  Remember?)  The simple fact is that, in spite of all of the propaganda, and deception and saber rattling, the Ukrainian people remained loyal to Kyiv and the idea that Ukraine's future lay with Western European governing strategies.

To fulfill the strategy decided upon in that short window of time in February, Moscow had to control all of Eastern and Southern Ukraine to make the policy plausible.  I'm sure some strategist told him; "Well, if we don't get Eastern and Southern Ukraine, we'll still have Crimea and that will sit well with the Russian people."

In so little a window to decide, no one really thought what would happen if Russia did not control Southern Ukraine.  Crimea would be cut off.   Russia accounted for only 1/7th of the tourist industry in Crimea before 2014.  Now it consists of virtually all of the tourist trade, the coinage of Crimea's business.  Water, power, gas, all come through Ukraine to Crimea.  How could Crimea sustain an agricultural industry without vast amounts of water channeled through to its farm lands?  Such operational plans take years to coalesce.  This operation took only days to plan and precipitate. 

So what went wrong?  Plenty.  Ultimately the largest thing that went wrong for Putin is that the Ukrainians kept their heads and played for enough time to get their leadership issues settled.   The opportune time for Putin to 'Protect his Russian speakers in the East' would have been around May 5th.  Ukrainian leadership was not yet in place.  The separatists were clearly in control of two regions.  And the Russian military had no opposition in front of it. 

The decision to go or not to go:  Ultimately this was Putin's decision.  Were he to go, he would have had to come out from his deceptive front and stage a clear invasion of a neighboring country.  Ukraine would have had to throw everything they had at the Russian tanks and planes coming in - so Russia would have had to attack with everything they had to prevent it.  It would have resulted in a full scale war, with Ukraine losing and Russia occupying.  Putin would have been equated with Hitler by the world. 

Confronted with the possibility of a clear aggression on his part, and the ramifications both to his own image (after all, did he not just prove himself the great statesman on the Olympic stage?) and to his country forced him to back away.    Most of the battle would have been fought on land occupied by Russian speakers.  And Russia was not immune to counter attack at an undefended border.  The risk of great casualties was too evident.  The people of Ukraine were not ready to welcome Russians as saviors. 

Putin's choice of 'No Go' will be a large factor in how people perceive him in the future.  He may be perceived in many ways, but he is no Hitler.

This is a really thoughtful post.  It is unfortunate that there isn't more discussion on it.  There is much here that I agree with you.  I have a few questions for you:

1) Is the Russian Army on par with the Wehrmacht?

2) Does Vladimir Putin have the same grasp on the Russian public as Hitler did on the German mind?

3)  You say that Hitler wanted to turn Eastern Europe into some German Playground.  Does not Putin have those same ambitions with the Soviet Union?

4) If you were a shadowy backer of Putin, wouldn't it be better to be rid of him and install someone without as much baggage such as Medvedev or even Kiselov or Rogozin?

5) If the GRU CONTINUES to gets its ass kicked, isn't Putin's goose cooked?

6) Initial reports are that Russian tanks and troops have crossed into Ukraine, if this invasion stalls and the war becomes unpopular, isn't Putin's goose cooked?

Bonus question:  What  do you make of Belarus and Kazahkstan's shifting positions?