My view of the war

[missAmeno]

http://gordonua.com/publications/Geografiya-rossiyskogo-gruza-200-38482.html

[BillyB]

estimated 2,000 dead Russian soldiers, most of them young, going home.  I believe the fact this started to become public knowledge is what finally lead Putin to agree to a ceasefire which, incidentally, Russian troops and the terrorists have violated daily.

I thought Putin wanted a break to slow sanctions and get better prepared for additional invasion but I'm changing my mind. Putin put a pause on the war to gauge public opinion in Russia due to the growing amount of deaths of his soldiers. He can't hide it anymore. If the majority of people can accept his lies of not having any Russian troops in Ukraine, he will proceed with conquest. If he loses popularity, Putin may back off and negotiate at the table.


Here's a report of Russian mothers and fellow soldiers telling their stories after their friends and sons come home in a coffin. In one battle alone, 100 Russian soldiers died. Many of them didn't know they were going to Ukraine and many were told to put on different uniforms.

http://news.yahoo.com/special-report-moscow-stifles-dissent-soldiers-return-coffins-090051931.html

[BillyB]

Now Porky is on the right track with what he said today..."There is no military solution"....


http://in.news.yahoo.com/ukraines-leader-sees-no-military-solution-crisis-eyes-101807161.html




Despite what some of the 'brave' chickenhawks have to say, a person would have to be rather dimwitted  to think Russia wouldn't continue to escalate if we started arming Ukraine.  This would result in many many more dead Ukrainian bodies.

Poroshenko doesn't believe in a military solution since he's up against a superior foe. Putin believes in a military solution. Putin will not escalate this war if we arm Ukraine. Putin has already escalated this war without anybody arming Ukraine. If Russia breaks the cease fire, Ukrainians will fight to stop Russia's military solution and they will continue to request the West to arm them. The cost in Russian lives is probably one of the biggest things that will get Putin to de-escalate his military solution. If Putin knows he going to get Ukraine easy, there wouldn't have been a cease fire at this moment.

[fathertime]

Poroshenko doesn't believe in a military solution since he's up against a superior foe. Putin believes in a military solution. Putin will not escalate this war if we arm Ukraine. Putin has already escalated this war without anybody arming Ukraine. If Russia breaks the cease fire, Ukrainians will fight to stop Russia's military solution and they will continue to request the West to arm them. The cost in Russian lives is probably one of the biggest things that will get Putin to de-escalate his military solution. If Putin knows he going to get Ukraine easy, there wouldn't have been a cease fire at this moment.

Well Billy, I don't think Russia is backing down if Ukraine was armed....I think this is where they make their stand.  I think they feel it is too important a region for them to let it go completely.  If they were to they would be forever weakened...We may find out soon enough.


Fathertime!

[lordtiberius]

"Blessed are the peacemakers, for they shall be called sons of God.

Matthew 5:9

[BillyB]

 I think they feel it is too important a region for them to let it go completely.

When the costs become greater than the reward, Putin will let it go. The costs become too great for Russia when enough Russians die.

[lordtiberius]

Stirlitz, MissAmeno, Doll or anyone actually in or from the region, 

what are your thoughts on the ceasefire and EU's decision to delay the AA?

GQB,  smoky eyes or natural?

[fathertime]

When the costs become greater than the reward, Putin will let it go. The costs become too great for Russia when enough Russians die.

Yeah if ENOUGH Russians were to die, like all of them..... but the Russians have always had the ability to move in with real heavy equipment and start annihilating Ukrainians, if that was what they wanted to do...and clearly it isn't 


Whatever losses they have suffered, they have permitted it to happen...as they are ones with the power.  I think Russia has shown that they would take this as far as they had to....if we escalate they escalate more...where that ends is a bad place for the world.


Fathertime!   

[Boethius]

Translation of an article from a Ukrainian paper on how terrorists treat POW's.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/12/former-pow-even-demons-in-hell-are-kinder-than-dnr-fighters/



Original article.  Note, this paper is printed in the banned Russian language.

http://society.lb.ua/position/2014/09/11/279026_dazhe_cherti_adu_dobree_dnrovtsi.html

[LiveFromUkraine]

Yeah if ENOUGH Russians were to die, like all of them..... but the Russians have always had the ability to move in with real heavy equipment and start annihilating Ukrainians, if that was what they wanted to do...and clearly it isn't 


Whatever losses they have suffered, they have permitted it to happen...as they are ones with the power.  I think Russia has shown that they would take this as far as they had to....if we escalate they escalate more...where that ends is a bad place for the world.


Fathertime!

FT, I would bet if enough Russians were to die, Putin's popularity would diminish.  From casual reading, it seems the cause of death for many of the Russian soldiers are being withheld from families.  Now if popularity will deter Putin, who knows.

[lordtiberius]

Everyone loves Putin.  Putin loves everyone.




He even gets compliments from hot chics on his sweater

He is the only guy I know who looks older in older pictures of him:

[fathertime]

FT, I would bet if enough Russians were to die, Putin's popularity would diminish.  From casual reading, it seems the cause of death for many of the Russian soldiers are being withheld from families.  Now if popularity will deter Putin, who knows.

Well LFU that is an "if" but sure if enough people are killed anything could happen. V. Putin's popularity is so high now that it can only go down. Heck we kept up wars with presidential popularity below 50%.  I think he would be able to rally his people, even more so if we began arming Ukraine, which is merely a pawn to our representatives.

Fatherime!

[missAmeno]

Stirlitz, MissAmeno, Doll or anyone actually in or from the region, 

what are your thoughts on the ceasefire and EU's decision to delay the AA?

GQB,  smoky eyes or natural?

What ceasefire? Piece of paper that was signed in Minsk on 05/09/14?
Well, the representative of the self-proclaimed "DNR" said that neither "DNR" or 'LNR" had not signed any truce.

Neither they have stopped shooting all this time.

Situation on 13/09/14



Now compare it to situation on 05/09/14



So what ceasefire we are talking about?


My personal opinion about what is happening is close to the view of military expert, Major General Stanislaw Slobodyanyk. He said: "In Crimea 2.5 million of people, who need to eat and get everything required for life support. Provision through Kerch Strait by ships is absolutely insufficient. Russia needs transport artery on land. Then they can do something with Crimea. So they have two choices. Return Crimea. And return to the status that have been. Or punch through to there (Crimea) their way. Up to today we are seeing the 2nd option. No wonder 400 tanks concentrated in the area of ​​Rostov. In Crimea grouping pressing under Kolonchak There are 15 thousand troops and 5 large airborne boats. In Transnistria, also grouping of about 20 thousand troops who are armed to the teeth. So now just trying to talk with Kremlin is useless. Required pressure from NATO countries and work in other areas  Putin can say one thing and do another "


Basically Putin holds naive westerners by promise of ceasefire while preparing for bigger invasion.

[AC]

What ceasefire? Piece of paper that was signed in Minsk on 05/09/14?

....So they have two choices. Return Crimea. And return to the status that have been. Or punch through to there (Crimea) their way. Up to today we are seeing the 2nd option. No wonder 400 tanks concentrated in the area of ​​Rostov. In Crimea grouping pressing under Kolonchak There are 15 thousand troops and 5 large airborne boats. In Transnistria, also grouping of about 20 thousand troops who are armed to the teeth. So now just trying to talk with Kremlin is useless. Required pressure from NATO countries and work in other areas  Putin can say one thing and do another "

Basically Putin holds naive westerners by promise of ceasefire while preparing for bigger invasion.

 

[missAmeno]

And why do you think tho ceasefire was signed USA hit such severe sanctions? Russia pulling closer and closer more and more troops.

[AC]

Translation of an article from a Ukrainian paper on how terrorists treat POW's.

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/09/12/former-pow-even-demons-in-hell-are-kinder-than-dnr-fighters/



Original article.  Note, this paper is printed in the banned Russian language.

http://society.lb.ua/position/2014/09/11/279026_dazhe_cherti_adu_dobree_dnrovtsi.html

From the article linked above:


The parade

(LB.ua editor’s note: Oleh did not want to talk about the POWs’ parade in Donetsk. This is probably the hardest thing for him to recall. But he agreed to describe the events in brief).

This was terrible. Three of us, including myself, were taken to a parade on [August] 24. We were told: “Isn’t it your holiday? So we’re taking you to a parade.”

They lined us up behind the building, along with other prisoners. They raised their flags, with Cossacks, Vostok, Oplot battalions all present.

The video you saw on the Internet is bullshit. They didn’t show the most important thing there. They didn’t show that a man was beheaded. He was being forced to get down on his knees during the parade preparations. He refused. He was beheaded. Right in front of everyone. I don’t know who he was. And I don’t know who the executioner was, as he was wearing a mask. But after that, we all kneeled.

[AC]

And why do you think tho ceasefire was signed USA hit such severe sanctions? Russia pulling closer and closer more and more troops.

Yes, I agree; although sanctions are not enough.  FYI I am pro-Ukraine and anti-Putin.  If I had my way the US would have a couple of Aircraft Carriers in the Black Sea and threaten Russia that if they continue to send troops into Ukraine, the USA would take action to help Ukraine protect their homeland.

[lordtiberius]

What ceasefire? Piece of paper that was signed in Minsk on 05/09/14?
Well, the representative of the self-proclaimed "DNR" said that neither "DNR" or 'LNR" had not signed any truce.

Neither they have stopped shooting all this time.

Situation on 13/09/14



Now compare it to situation on 05/09/14



So what ceasefire we are talking about?


My personal opinion about what is happening is close to the view of military expert, Major General Stanislaw Slobodyanyk. He said: "In Crimea 2.5 million of people, who need to eat and get everything required for life support. Provision through Kerch Strait by ships is absolutely insufficient. Russia needs transport artery on land. Then they can do something with Crimea. So they have two choices. Return Crimea. And return to the status that have been. Or punch through to there (Crimea) their way. Up to today we are seeing the 2nd option. No wonder 400 tanks concentrated in the area of ​​Rostov. In Crimea grouping pressing under Kolonchak There are 15 thousand troops and 5 large airborne boats. In Transnistria, also grouping of about 20 thousand troops who are armed to the teeth. So now just trying to talk with Kremlin is useless. Required pressure from NATO countries and work in other areas  Putin can say one thing and do another "


Basically Putin holds naive westerners by promise of ceasefire while preparing for bigger invasion.

Russia has taken significant losses.  Is the Russian military capable of a larger invasion?

[missAmeno]

Russia has taken significant losses.  Is the Russian military capable of a larger invasion?

Losses do not bother Putin as far as info about those losses is hidden from russians.

You see, Putin expected half of Ukraine. He believed whole east and south east of Ukraine will jump from the joy of perspective to join Russia. Instead he got 1/3 of Donetsk region and that is still not secure, took too long time to even have that and at too high cost (here we are not talking about human lives, just military equipment, supplies, transportation, cover up plus the joy of all western sanctions and financial loses they have brought).

But he can't accept loosing. Without part of Ukraine Crimea will be massive burden, Return Crimea he can't either as it will be end to him also.

They supplied 6 crematorium trucks in Rostov, so I guess losses of human lives are sorted. Now he needs to move more troops to be able invade more of Ukraine, which he is doing already. As well very much possible that he will use new means/ways of invasion.

[Drew]

Miss Ameno, Kate reads internet news everyday from both Russia and Ukraine.

She says the Russian media never report the true extent of Russian involvement and troops inside Ukraine.

But, there have been some blogs instituted now by private Russians that tell of the deaths of young Russian soldiers operating in Ukraine.  The families of these dead boys say they and their son was never told that they were going to be sent to fight and die in another country.

As this accumulates, it is possible that ordinary Russians will become more alarmed; but probably little  they can do about it.

The amazing thing is that even as Russian media is controlled mostly by the government, there are tons of info available on the Internet telling the true story.  However, as with most things in life, it doesn't matter how many facts a person reads, they can still choose to stick with their original beliefs.  This apparently is holding true for vast majority of Russian population that feels a superiority over Ukrainians.

Kate just heard an interesting thing from a friend in Ukraine a few days ago.  Apparently in some area of eastern Ukraine, a Russian major raised a white flag in front of an area where some Ukrainian troops were located.  A Ukrainian officer went out to talk with him.  The Russian officer told that the area occupied by the Ukrainians was going to be bombed within a short period of time and advised them to move.

They did move away and the area was  bombed.

If Russian higher ups would learn of this and the officers identity found, he undoubtedly would be court martialed or summarily executed.

Don't know if this story is true, but interesting if it is.

Anyone else hear this story?

[lordtiberius]

They supplied 6 crematorium trucks in Rostov, so I guess losses of human lives are sorted.

I want all those concerned to read this and absorb this.  The lives of dead Russian soldiers are a political liability to Putin.  That is sick.

[lordtiberius]

It took several years for US casualties to reach 2,000.  Ukraine claims that as many as 2,000 Russians are dead because of Putin's war:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/parallels/2014/09/08/346735504/some-in-russia-admit-their-troops-volunteer-in-ukraine

Those killed died in six month period.

Russia is a smaller country than the US.  It is very different, but those statistics if true are staggering.  I think Ukraine should resume the fighting and even escalate the conflict by bombing positions on the other side of the border.

I would also negotiate a free trade agreement with China.  Most of the items on the Ukraine (and Western) markets are made in China.  Why pay Russian middlemen?

[missAmeno]

Miss Ameno, Kate reads internet news everyday from both Russia and Ukraine.

Same here.

But, there have been some blogs instituted now by private Russians that tell of the deaths of young Russian soldiers operating in Ukraine.

Those blogs will not survive for long time due to new 'blogger' law. All those people will end up prosecuted and/or harassed.

The families of these dead boys say they and their son was never told that they were going to be sent to fight and die in another country.

In early days most guys probably didn't know, in last month most have been able to guess. Some told families and some didn't (which is understandable).

As this accumulates, it is possible that ordinary Russians will become more alarmed; but probably little  they can do about it.

They can do a lot but they have to have desire to do something (or at least anything) about it.

The amazing thing is that even as Russian media is controlled mostly by the government, there are tons of info available on the Internet telling the true story.  However, as with most things in life, it doesn't matter how many facts a person reads, they can still choose to stick with their original beliefs.  This apparently is holding true for vast majority of Russian population that feels a superiority over Ukrainians.

Of course they stick to fantasy. Accepting reality or even starting to questioning fantasy would turn their lives upside down. They have been brought up in believe they are great nation and it is a pride to be one of them. Now somehow they need to comprehend they are disgrace, they attack, kill, torture, behead, rape for the sake of ego of one men who on the top of everything treats them as idiots, have been robbing them for many years and still robs them now.
Accepting such reality is hard, easier to believe in fantasy.

[missAmeno]

Tho 2012 but perhaps will help those who stuck in fantasy to start to see sparkles of reality

[lordtiberius]

Where can I get the Russian lyrics to the final song?