Black Clouds on the Horizon

[I/O]

I thought is was funny as well.

Oh well, it certainly wasn't intended as pornography (I detest such actually) and if that's the view, it's back up. I thought it pretty well summed up the situation as it is.

[Gator]

Oh well, it certainly wasn't intended as pornography (I detest such actually) and if that's the view, it's back up. I thought it pretty well summed up the situation as it is.

Especially after Putin's recent speech about the bear never asks for permission when on the taiga. 

[AkMike]

Russia Hastily Tested All Three Kinds of Nuclear Weapons – European Media

02.11.2014 10:22


Censor.NET writes about it citing BarentsObserver, whose profile is Russian-Norvegion relations.

 The test area covered a territory from the Atlantic to the Kamchatka Peninsula with the epicenter in the Barents Sea region.

 Russian nuclear triad includes silo-based Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missile, Tu-95 strategic bombers, and submarine based ballistic missiles (SLBM). At 09:20 a.m. (Moscow time) on Saturday, a silo-based Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from Plesetsk in Arkhangelsk Oblast.

 The Ministry of Defense of Russian Federation confirmed the launch, stating that a few minutes later the dummy nuclear warhead hit its target on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia's far eastern corner. The Ministry adds that the Topol-M missile has an "extremely high accuracy of target destruction." The distance from Plesetsk to Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky exceeds 6000 km, which is only a thousand kilomeeters less than the distance to New York City.

 European media have reported numerous cases of intrusion of Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers into Atlantic flight zone, in particular over Norway, Britain and Portugal. NATO countries had to scramble fighters to intercept the bombers, which did not maintain radio contact.

 Barents Observer published the NATO statement that unapproved flights of Russian bombers pose a risk to civilian air traffic.

Тhe third arm of Russia's nuclear triad, the submarine based ballistic missiles (SLBM), were tested on Wednesday, when "Yury Dolgoruky" launhced a Bulava missile launhced a Bulava missile from submerged position in the Barents Sea. The launch was also confirmed by the Ministry of Defense of Russian Federation. In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly advised the West "not to put pressure on Russia" and reminded about the presence of nuclear weapons in Russia.

 Earlier Censor.NET wrote that Russia plans to move nuclear weapons into Crimea.

http://24today.net/open/193424

[cc3]

If Russian military aircraft are purposefully jeopardizing the safety of the hundreds of civilian airliners transiting the Atlantic, with no radar coverage, then it seems only appropriate that all Russian civil aircraft, i.e.: airliners and executive jets be banned from access to civilian air routes (North Atlantic track system) over the Atlantic and the Pacific.

[AkMike]

Who has the rights to ban someone from International airspace? How can it be enforced of they don't want to play fair?

[Brasscasing]

Russia Hastily Tested All Three Kinds of Nuclear Weapons – European Media

02.11.2014 10:22


Censor.NET writes about it citing BarentsObserver, whose profile is Russian-Norvegion relations.

 The test area covered a territory from the Atlantic to the Kamchatka Peninsula with the epicenter in the Barents Sea region.

 Russian nuclear triad includes silo-based Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missile, Tu-95 strategic bombers, and submarine based ballistic missiles (SLBM). At 09:20 a.m. (Moscow time) on Saturday, a silo-based Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missile was launched from Plesetsk in Arkhangelsk Oblast.

 The Ministry of Defense of Russian Federation confirmed the launch, stating that a few minutes later the dummy nuclear warhead hit its target on the Kamchatka Peninsula in Russia's far eastern corner. The Ministry adds that the Topol-M missile has an "extremely high accuracy of target destruction." The distance from Plesetsk to Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky exceeds 6000 km, which is only a thousand kilomeeters less than the distance to New York City.

 European media have reported numerous cases of intrusion of Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers into Atlantic flight zone, in particular over Norway, Britain and Portugal. NATO countries had to scramble fighters to intercept the bombers, which did not maintain radio contact.

 Barents Observer published the NATO statement that unapproved flights of Russian bombers pose a risk to civilian air traffic.

Тhe third arm of Russia's nuclear triad, the submarine based ballistic missiles (SLBM), were tested on Wednesday, when "Yury Dolgoruky" launhced a Bulava missile launhced a Bulava missile from submerged position in the Barents Sea. The launch was also confirmed by the Ministry of Defense of Russian Federation. In October, Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly advised the West "not to put pressure on Russia" and reminded about the presence of nuclear weapons in Russia.

 Earlier Censor.NET wrote that Russia plans to move nuclear weapons into Crimea.

http://24today.net/open/193424

Yeah, the world media's playing this up to the hilt. Kinda reminds me of the coverage of the Scottish independence referendum - wow, that was a close one, wasn't it?   

Anyways, the nuclear triad of doom, eh? Well, let's take a look...

If the Russian's are still testing the SS-27 they're in a world of hurt. The 27 should already be relegated to the military museums not still being tested. Last count they had somewhere around 60 of these systems deployed with 1/3 being mobile missile launchers a la 'Scud'.

Of note, one plant, the Moscow Institute of Heat/Thermal Engineering/Technology is the only plant in Russia that builds these missiles and apparently has been plagued with failures and lagging behind in production from the project's inception due to lack of funds and up to date technology.

However, I can understand why they'd be testing this missile as it was the first Russian solo foray into missile building (waaay back in the early 90s) without Ukraine's engineering expertise. So, if I were the little guy, I'd be worried the things might not actually launch as well.

The TU-95 (Bear)...Brilliant aircraft but no longer capable of doing what they were originally designed for back in the 50's which was flying over North American/European airspace and dropping  bombs. Just not going to happen in this day and age.

And the Bulava (SLBM) is the equivalent of the SS-27 discussed above and in the most preliminary testing phase for the Russian Navy. It still boils down to launch platforms though and the Yuri Dolgoruky is the only submarine in her class capable of launching them. Unfortunately for Mr. Putin Russia only has one of these subs in service the rest are still being built.

http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/ssbn-yury-dolgoruky-russia/

So, at the end of the day, not very impressive after all.

Edit...

Sorry, that's two boats in this class apparently in service but one's having problems...

...“The commissioning of the ship into the fleet, as well as a flag-raising ceremony on the ballistic missile submarine Alexander Nevsky, is planned for December 21,” the source told RIA.

In November 2013, the Defense Ministry said that delivery of the boat would be delayed until 2014 following the failure of an onboard missile system during sea trials in September. The malfunction was the latest in a string of eight failures of the new Bulava missile – developed for the new Borei class submarines – out of a total of 19 or 20 launches. The new Borei class boats are currently incapable of performing their primary role of nuclear deterrence while the Bulava has not yet been cleared for service, a navy command source said on November 1"...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_submarine_Alexander_Nevsky_(K-550)

Brass

[calmissile]

Who has the rights to ban someone from International airspace? How can it be enforced of they don't want to play fair?

CC3 is an ATC pilot, I am not.  Perhaps he can answer your question.  I suspect that there are international agreements on use of the high altitude air corridors as well as military requirements in international airspace.  Hopefully CC3 can answer them.

[AC]

The TU-95 (Bear)...Brilliant aircraft but no longer capable of doing what they were originally designed for back in the 50's which was flying over North American/European airspace and dropping  bombs. Just not going to happen in this day and age.

Could you expand on this please?  What is wrong with this aircraft in comparison to what the West has? 

[lordtiberius]

This aircraft was supposed to match the B-29 and B-52.  It sucks.

[AkMike]

I'd guess that with todays satellites, radar and fighters they wouldn't be able to get close enough to do harm.

[AC]

I'd guess that with todays satellites, radar and fighters they wouldn't be able to get close enough to do harm.

That would be my guess as well; I haven't researched it.  What I have read is that Russian air defense systems are not up to par, compared to the West.  Not that we would want to launch airstrikes against Russia, but apparently we could do some real damage if we did.

[JayH]

Quote from: AC on Yesterday at 07:04:12 PM
"Your numbers of Russian soldiers inside of Ukraine are also greatly exaggerated."
Reply--
Earlier I posted some numbers of estimates-I believe they were conservative.
Today--as I post this--

http://twitter.com/Conflict_Report/status/529224302496083968

#BreakingReport The entire road between #Rovenky and #Debaltseve is full of #Russian_Army troops.
Around 2000 w/tanks

[Muzh]

If you think it's bad, take your copy down - I've taken the link down. Didn't mean to offend.

LMAO


That was funny as hell.

[cc3]

CC3 is an ATC pilot, I am not.  Perhaps he can answer your question.  I suspect that there are international agreements on use of the high altitude air corridors as well as military requirements in international airspace.  Hopefully CC3 can answer them.

Wikipedia article on the "North Atlantic Track System" on which intercontinental air traffic between Europe and North America is routed and controlled (no radar contact) by Shanwick and Gander Oceanic Control Centers (Shanwick east of the 30 W longitude, Gander west of that longitude):

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_Tracks

...and today's (6/7 Nov 2014) "Track Messages" and weather planning info, reviewed by all crews crossing on the NAT system:

http://sites.google.com/site/acnetworkweather/home/north-atlantic

[AC]

After the sham election Putin can now annex an additional portion of Ukraine.  In this case the Donbas is a large industrial area producing coal and other products.  Will he do it?  Poroshenko remains commited to peace, but he knows that a military solution is off the table after Russia came to the defense of the pro-Russian separatists.  I suspect as soon as Putler gets a formal request from the DPR he is going to annex that portion of Ukraine as well.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/11208394/Analysis-Ukraine-peace-plan-lies-in-tatters-after-rebel-election.html

[JayH]

#BREAKING Column of 32 tanks enters Ukraine from Russia:[/size

http://twitter.com/AFP

[AkMike]

Published on Nov 8, 2014


SNIZHNE, Ukraine (AP) — Associated Press reporters saw more than 80 unmarked military vehicles on the move Saturday in rebel-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine, indicating that intensified hostilities may lie ahead.
Three separate columns were seen — one near the main separatist stronghold of Donetsk and two outside the town of Snizhne, 80 kilometers (50 miles) further east. The vehicles were mainly transportation trucks, some of them carrying small- and large-caliber artillery systems, and at least one armored personnel carrier. Several of the trucks were seen to be carrying troops.
Ukrainian officials said this week that they believe rebel forces have received substantial consignments of weaponry and manpower from Russia. Moscow denies such claims.
It was not immediately possible to establish the provenance of the vehicles seen Saturday. Separatists have always insisted they are armed with equipment captured from Ukrainian forces, but the sheer scale and quality of their armaments have strained the credibility of that claim.
Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council spokesman Volodymyr Polevoy said rebel reinforcements have also been observed moving toward front-line locations around 150 kilometers (95 miles) northeast of Donetsk, in the Luhansk region.
Polevoy said rebel authorities are boosting their ranks by forcibly mobilizing residents in a number of occupied towns.
Despite a cease-fire being reached in September, Ukrainian and rebel troops engage on a regular basis, with some of the heaviest fighting focused on Donetsk airport.
One government paratrooper was killed Friday by a sniper at the airport, military authorities said in a statement. Polevoy said two other Ukrainian troops were killed on the same day, but gave no details.
The statement added that Ukrainian positions came under artillery fire in several towns and villages east of Donetsk, including Debaltseve, which has begun to be increasingly encircled by rebel forces.
Earlier this week, Ukraine's president Petro Poroshenko said that additional troops were being deployed to the east to defend cities still under government control against possible incursions. That followed rebel statements of intent to expand the amount of territory under their control.
The truce signed in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, by Russia, Ukraine and the separatists stipulates the pullback of heavy weaponry.
In Beijing, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met Saturday on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference for what was expected to be a discussion about the unrest in eastern Ukraine.
Asked if Russia still respects the legitimacy of the cease-fire agreement, Lavrov said it is for the "rebels and the government" of Ukraine to finalize a disengagement line — a process that he said is continuing.
Tensions between Ukraine and Russia rose further after the rebels held an election last Sunday that Ukraine and the West denounced as a violation of the truce. Russia, however, quickly lent its support to the vote.

[AC]

Thanks for posting the video Mike.  With that level of heavy weaponry coming into Ukraine from Russia I don't think there's any doubt that Putler is planning to launch full-scale warfare soon.  I just hope that Ukraine can hold on.  There's no doubt that the Ukrainians fighting are some of the finest soldiers in the World.  As others have mentioned they are fighting for their very existence and they know it.  No doubt it's got to add a lot of energy and determination to their cause. 

[Muzh]

Unconfirmed reports stated that Putler was squashing a revolt coming from the "Pro-Russia" terrorist in order to unify Novorossia.

[BorisS]

Unconfirmed reports stated that Putler was squashing a revolt coming from the "Pro-Russia" terrorist in order to unify Novorossia.

That's why he sent the Vostok battalion into Donetsk. To slap the Pro-Russian rebels into line...

[AC]

That's why he sent the Vostok battalion into Donetsk. To slap the Pro-Russian rebels into line...

And to eliminate Bezler, the triggerman for the BUK missile that took out MH17.

[JayH]

Poroshenko talked with Putin. He threatened to attack

President Poroshenko held a telephone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

At 2200hrs journalists were awaiting completion faction MFP witnessed as from the presidential administration came Russian Ambassador Mikhail Zurabov.

Comment ambassador refused to visit later.

Later Representative AP told the publication that at this time there was a difficult conversation with Putin in the presence of the ambassador. At the meeting of the faction president came in a bad mood and told about the conversation with Putin, which lasted half an hour.

"There is a problem with - they threatened to launch an offensive and demand recognition of the breakaway republics and refusal to join NATO and the EU" - said another source INSIDER.

http://www.theinsider.ua/politics/5476471d8da55/

[AC]

In the photo on that link Poroshenko looks like a bear getting ready to eat a weasel!   

Seriously though I think reality might be setting in now for Putin.  He knows come January there will likely be military assistance for Ukraine and he knows if he invades now the sanctions which are crippling his economy and his power base will get much worse.  I think he's bluffing Poroshenko to try to get concessions, although he's still a loose cannon so it's anyone's guess as to what he will actually do.

[AkMike]

With the good news I posted in the other thread about falling oil prices and with the promise of continued sanctions or harsher sanctions the folks in Russia might wake up and notice a bad taste in their mouth that a shot of vodka won't fix.

 Nah.. Silly me    They'll look to Pravda for a bright outlook on life.  Dirt might taste better and better as time goes on. 

[JayH]

How Ukraine’s arsenal matches up against the Russian-backed separatists’
By Robert Beckhusen December 2, 2014


On Nov. 18, several rockets fired from a separatist Grad launcher slammed into an apartment building in the eastern Ukrainian town of Toshkovka. It was another shelling in what’s become an almost daily event — as both sides in Ukraine’s civil war turn to heavier weaponry to shift the battle in their favor.

But no soldiers were harmed in this shelling. Instead, three civilians died and four others — including two children — were wounded. It was more than four miles behind the front line, which formed after pro-Russian militants threw Ukrainian troops back during a heavy August counteroffensive.

The separatists now control a 200-mile stretch of territory from the Black Sea to the Russian border. This includes the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk, two of the three largest cities in eastern Ukraine. Still, it’s a precarious situation for the militants seeking to create a state-within-a-state.

Ukrainian troops hold an important crossroads at the center of militant territory. They also control the Donetsk airport, an essential facility if the separatist enclave is to survive outside of Kiev’s control. Several cease-fire agreements have yet to stop the fighting.

ukraine_pic_2The war looks a lot different than it did a few months ago, however. It’s settling along a single front line, with fewer of the advances and retreats that marked this summer’s fighting.

For the Ukrainians, more and better weapons haven’t been decisive. After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Kiev inherited a military that was far too large and complex for a poor country without any clear threats. By the time Ukraine’s leaders began reforming the military structure, the 2008 economic collapse had arrived. The global crisis nearly bankrupt the army, according to a new collection of essays titled Brothers Armed: Military Aspects of the Crisis in Ukraine.

Now the question is whether the outnumbered but heavily armed separatists have enough weapons to push the Ukrainian army farther back — without support from a full-blown Russian invasion. If the answer is no, the result could be stalemate.

But Ukrainian politicians should also be worried about the Russian-backed separatists obtaining even heavier weapons — particularly tanks and artillery — that could help them mount another offensive.

UKRAINE UNPREPARED

The Ukraine army is far larger and more capable than the separatist brigades. Kiev has more than 41,000 combat troops, with several thousand more enlisted in volunteer militias. The total number of pro-Russian fighters is unclear, but estimates range between 10,000 and 20,000 militants.

But the Ukrainian army has serious structural weaknesses that explain why it hasn’t succeeded in quashing the separatists.

ukraine_pic_3During most of the post-Soviet era, the Ukrainian army has been more of a scrapyard than an actual army. Thousands of tanks and armored vehicles, as well as hundreds of planes, sat rusting. The military was partly financed through a government special fund, which took in revenues by selling weapons and military-owned facilities. “The Ukrainian Armed Forces,” military analyst Vyacheslav Tseluyko wrote in Brothers Armed, “were in a state of suspended animation, lacking any obvious reason for being.”

By 2000, underpaid and poorly trained conscripts made up 90 percent of the army’s total strength. Few of its aircraft were capable of flying. Most of the military was based in western Ukraine near the borders of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization — an alliance Kiev wanted to join, not fight.

This was all supposed to change in 2008. A pro-NATO government in Kiev embarked in 2007 on an ambitious military modernization program, devised in part as a response to the war between Russia and Georgia. Kiev’s defense budget was to increase by one-third, with the special fund covering a larger share of the total.

If this plan had been carried out, the military would have become more professional, purchased modern equipment and moved its bases to the east — as a deterrent against a Russian invasion — instead of looking west to confront NATO.

But it was the worst possible timing. The 2008 global financial crisis swept through Ukraine, derailing all the plans. The army had to struggle just to pay its utility bills. Instead of increasing by one-third, the defense budget shrank by that much. Soldiers resorted to eating field rations because money ran out to pay the contractors who worked in army kitchens. Training exercises fell to the minimum.

The army had partially recovered from this blow before the fighting with the separatists began. There was no longer a draft. But the military was still far too large, with many personnel in redundant support roles. Its soldiers, sailors and pilots had also seen their skills degrade during the recession.

USE OF WEAPONS

ukraine_pic_4Early in the conflict, most weapons carried by the pro-Russian rebels were captured hardware or arms bought on the civilian market, according to a recent report by ARES, a consultant firm that tracks weapons used in armed conflicts.

Both sides are now largely using the same Soviet-era small arms. These include vintage Kalashnikov-variant rifles and light RPK machine guns. A few separatist fighters even carry bolt-action Mosin-Nagant rifles dating to World War Two. They manufacture their own submachine guns.

With so many older weapons, there’s a high degree of customization. Civilian components — bought in gun stores or over the Internet — are popular with soldiers on both sides. Add-ons include custom scopes, silencers and cosmetic features and “reflect a global fashion trend driven by the firearms industry in the West,” ARES noted.

Many parts are sought after despite the soldiers’ unfamiliarity with them. One Ukrainian soldier was carrying a rifle with an expensive Swedish-made scope mounted backward on the top — making the weapon practically useless. But, as the ARES report explained, it looked the part. Another Ukrainian soldier fighting in the east had a $589 Zombie Stopper scope – “guaranteed to help you kill zombies deader,” according to its manufacturer’s claims. Contrast this slew of rusty, older and customized guns in eastern Ukraine with the military gear of regular Russian troops.

ukraine_pic_5When Russian soldiers helicoptered into Crimea in February, they wore new camouflage uniforms and carried modern black polymer AK-74M rifles. These guns are virtually exclusive to Russia. (Azerbaijan and Cyprus use them as well.) These green-clad gunmen were immediately marked as Russian troops.

Looking for evidence of Russian-supplied guns in eastern Ukraine isn’t as easy as it was in Crimea. As the Ukrainian army advanced toward separatist-controlled cities, however, the rebels began fielding sophisticated weapons used only by the Russian armed forces and a few other select countries. But not Ukraine.

These weapons include VSS sniper rifles and PKP machine guns, which the Ukrainian army does not have. The separatists also carried ASVK recoilless rifles, designed to fire heavy slugs at tanks and buildings. The Russian army began using these in 2012. It is the only army known to use this weapon, with the apparent exception being the separatists.

The rebels also have dozens of tanks. It’s unknown exactly how many. But the bulk appear to be captured T-64s, with several dozen T-72B3 tanks that Russia produced but never exported — until now. These tanks date to 2013 and have modern thermal sights and fire-control computers. The Ukrainians do have several hundred older T-72s in storage, but they are not likely serviceable.

ukraine_pic_6Ukraine, however, has been the heavier tank user in the conflict, according to ARES. The problem is that the Ukrainian advantage in armor — mostly T-64 tanks — is negligible considering the amount of light antitank weapons the militants possess.

In addition to captured antitank missiles, the separatists now have modern 9K135 Kornet missiles. These Russian-made missiles are among the world’s deadliest antitank weapons. They are a recurring sight in Middle East conflicts. Ukraine, however, does not possess them.

The separatists also have large numbers of shoulder-fired antitank rockets. They are more advanced than the Soviet-made rockets usually seen in the Middle East. The separatists’ arsenal includes the RPG-18 – another weapon that Ukrainian forces do not possess. They also have RPO-A and MRO-A thermobaric launchers, similarly absent from Ukrainian stockpiles. These propel a fuel-air explosive warhead designed to destroy buildings, bunkers and lightly armored vehicles.

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2014/12/02/how-ukraines-arsenal-matches-up-against-the-russian-backed-separatists/