The Failure of Diplomacy in Ukraine

[BillyB]

Is time on their side?

Having some time is better than having no time. Originally I thought Russia was going to pull a Stalin and quickly roll tanks to and into Kiev to get this over with. Putin is taking the slower but cheaper path in cost and in Russian life by letting pro Russian Ukrainians do much of the fighting. Ukraine has time to try to persuade the West to help them but if they get weapons, they will be defensive weapons first, not offensive. Almost a year has past and Ukraine has lost 20% of their land. How are they even going to take back their land without meaningful help? It's going to take time to take back the land they lost and I don't think Putin is going to watch his men get slaughtered by "low life" Ukrainians without escalating things to gain the advantage again. Putin has to realize he's up against many of the world's militaries before he pulls his troops back voluntarily. We have to put him in a no win situation to get him to stop and back out.

Do you think normal Ukrainians will watch this slow motion dismemberment of their country without a fight?

I agree with Steamer.


As Russia makes advances, Ukrainians will be more and more discontent with their government which in turn helps Putin. When Poroshenko was elected, I said I felt sorry for him. It's like taking a coaching job for a team that can't win. Poreshenko will unfairly get criticized by some of his people for not running his military properly or not being a good salesman in sealing a deal to get the West to supply weapons.

Can the Russians seize Mariupol without catastrophic loss of life for the Ukrainians which would mean more support for them internationally or  catastrophic loss of life for the Russians which would mean a war weariness . . . ?

That I don't know. I'm sure Putin and his generals have sat down and talked about how to take cities while making themselves look good and the Ukrainian government look bad. Loss of life isn't important to them as long as it achieves the desired effects.

Is Merkel a friend to Russia or Ukraine?

She is a friend to Germany first. She wants Ukraine's business but she wants Russia's business more. Whether or not Ukraine and Russia part ways or Ukraine is absorbed into Russia, in the end she will get the business of both.


Germany and the rest of the EU didn't want to confront Russia. It took some pushing from America to get them to agree on sanctions. Russia influenced Ukraine before, why don't we let Russia continue to influence them? We'd be back in business with each other, benefit our economies and wouldn't get into a costly war. The EU does care about people in the free world as long as it doesn't cost them. Ukraine costs so it's an easy decision to sacrifice them to Russia so why does the EU sacrifice a little bit of their economy by applying sanctions against Russia in order to help Ukraine? The simple reason is they are helping themselves since there are no guarantees that Ukraine is Russia's last stop.


Germany and France have reported constructive and meaningful talks in Moscow Friday. Propaganda or truth? I've been searching for news on Putin's view of the talks and finally found something. He's flipping the bird to the West. It's Obama's move now.


F U Merkel and Hollande, Russia isn't going to be part of your world order

[AkMike]

In the span of 45 minutes today, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rewrote the history of the Cold War, accused the West of fomenting a coup in Ukraine and declared himself a champion of the United Nations Charter. The crowd here in Germany laughed at and then booed him, but he didn’t seem to care.

He looked nervous, perhaps because Sergei Ivanov, chief of staff to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Lavrov's superior, was sitting in the front row, staring at him as if to warn him not to mess up. But none of that kept him from turning in an audacious performance.

“In any situation, the United States is trying to blame Russia for everything," he said. "Russia will be committed to peace. We are against combat. We would like to see a withdrawal of heavy weapons.”

Lavrov then accused the U.S. of supporting military attacks against innocent Ukrainians. (He chose not to mention the Russian heavy weaponry in Eastern Ukraine or the hundreds of Russian military advisers on the ground.) Lavrov accused the Ukrainian military and government of being anti-Jewish and said that the Hungarian minority in Ukraine was being mistreated. He called out the U.S. for negotiating with the Afghan Taliban but -- in his view -- not supporting negotiations between the Ukraine government and the Eastern separatists.



 The crowd took that in stride, but then burst out laughing when Lavrov said that the annexation of Crimea, which was invaded by unmarked Russian troops, was an example of international legal norms working well.

“What happened in Crimea was the people invoking the right of self-determination.” he said. “You’ve got to read the UN Charter. Territorial integrity and sovereignty must be respected. “

As chuckles filled the ballroom of the elegant Hotel Bayerischer Hof, Lavrov shrugged it off: “You may find it funny. I also found many things you said funny.”

But the laughter turned to scorn when Lavrov made a muddled comparison of the Ukraine crisis with the division of Germany in the Cold War. “Germany got reunited without a referendum and we were an active supporter of that process after the Second World War," he said. "You will remember that it was the Soviet Union that was against splitting Germany."


For the complete article.. Click here

:http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-08/lavrov-s-comedy-routine-on-ukraine-isn-t-funny-to-europe

[JayH]

Hard to believe how big an idiot he is really is!

Such a warped sense of reality? Or just plain dumb idiot!

[AkMike]

Idiot? Like Huilotin maybe? 

 Maybe they've been spit swapping the stupid genes? 

[lordtiberius]

Billy B,  thank you for your considered response.  There isn't a lot of thoughtful or even original response on this forum lately. 

I originally thought he would implement blitzkrieg after Yanukovych left.  It would have been the time to do it.  But he did not.  He instead used Girkin's Hybrid War tactics which at first yielded him what he perceived as spectacular successes.  But these successes were illusory. 

He lost Ukraine. 

Fifty percent of Ukraine considered itself a part of or in the sphere of the Russian world.  No one thinks that anymore.  One of my friends is an ethnic Russian.  He hates Putin.  Putin has done something  that was unthinkable 2 years ago.  He has made 45 million Ukrainians Banderists. 

Ideas are harder to kill.  In Vietnam we tried to kill Vietnamese nationalism.  In Iraq, we had to overcome radical islam.  In Afghanistan, we are trying to overcome a Failed State.  Russia will have to occupy these territories. 

I have no illusions that Russia cares about Ukrainians. They will govern these lands by destroying them first and then importing Russians into new Russia formerly Little Russia.  Those Ukrainians not co-opted into the Rosskimir will be killed or otherwise abused.

Also Hybrid War is a very stupid way to wage war.  In order to maintain surprise, deception and diplomatic/political cover they have to lie and lie and lie.  They also have to deploy their forces incrementally.  They cannot maximize all their combat power.  Hybrid War has some of the same operational restrictions as the Vietnam and Korean War tactics that got Americans killed.  Guess who is going home in truck 200 and 300?

War demoralizes a nation. The longer they fight it.  The more demoralized them become.   Russia underwent a civil war and revolution after it lost the Russo-Japanese war.  Austria, Russia and Germany lost their monarchs.  After the accumulation of centuries of trade and exploration, England and France lost their Empires after "winning" World War II.  China ceased to exist.  America after Vietnam went through a malaise which is what most Democrats characterized the Bush administration after "Mission Accomplished" (thank you Karl Rove.)

Putin's war like the Soviet Space program is not a series of unbroken successes.  By most accounts he has lost 5,000 men KIA and 15,000 WIA.  In a place known for 1 to 2 baby families.  That is going to have a cost on this society.  No doubt the over 30 crowd holds an ancient grievance about their Cold War defeat.  But they must be reminded that they did lose the Cold War and they did so because we were right and they were wrong.  Our fine foreign policy establishment has blown off Solzhenitsyn and left Russia with its Security Council chair and its nukes.  Go us.

You agree with Steamer at your own peril.  Steamer is cynical and callous to Ukraine and a cheerleader to its murder, pillage and rape.  Though you have gone on the record against Ukrainian  murder, pillage and rape, to disparage the Ukrainian spirit in light of its courage in the face of Yanukovych and thugs like Girkin and ‪Zakharchenko‬ demonstrates a myopia that does not see the potential Ukraine could play on the future of Europe and the World.

You say you were in the military.  If you were, then you know that you learn more from bad leaders than you do from good ones.  There are few leaders in Europe that were as bad as Yanukovych.  Telling Yanukovych to GTFO remains the greatest accomplishment of the Ukrainian state since its inception and not you or Putin himself will ever take that way from this free people.

I don't think Ukraine sees the failures of the Poroshenko regime as entirely his own.  I think they see that Poroshenko made these concessions to Putin from pressure from Hiollande, Biden and Merkel.  They will stick by him long after these douche bags exit stage left unless he holds on to the Kiev General Staff.  The Atlantic Council endorsed the Kiev Military Staff.  I myself am on the fence and leaning toward replace them.

Ukraine can win if properly armed, don't you agree?

And even if they can't win, they can resist indefinitely.  Resistance does not have to be done by  military means.  Cultural, political, economic resistance will accompany the Russian occupation.  Do you not deny this?

[BillyB]

Ukraine can win if properly armed, don't you agree?

Putin runs this show. He gets to decide the outcome. Even if Ukraine is properly armed, I don't think Ukraine will win unless Putin wants them to win. If Ukraine is adequately armed, time is not on Putin's side. It takes time to arm and train soldiers and if Putin loses too many Russian soldiers in a war that lasts years, he will lose support of his people. He will have to escalate the war exponentially and end it quickly. So far he has nothing to worry about. Most world leaders are against arming Ukraine.

And even if they can't win, they can resist indefinitely.  Resistance does not have to be done by  military means.  Cultural, political, economic resistance will accompany the Russian occupation.  Do you not deny this?

Resistance won't be easy. The first thing Russia will do is take away their guns. Protesting in the streets may be outlawed. Elections will be rigged. If Russia takes Ukraine, many Ukrainians will hate the cowards in the West. If they don't respect the West, they are probably much less likely to continue to resist and die for the West. If Russia takes Ukraine, the majority of Ukrainians will be subdued with little hope to get out of their situation. There is no second chance for Ukraine in the near future. Their time is now if they want to get out from under Russia's influence.


LT, you're a very patriotic person. If the cowards in the West abandons your countrymen to die at the hands of a dictator, would you continue to donate your life in an attempt to join them?

[Photo Guy]

Diplomacy can be very powerful. Through diplomacy, Putin should be challenged. 'Why will you not accept a cease-fire agreement???' Draw a line in the sand. 'Do not step beyond this line.' Seal the Russian border. Poroshenko's speech had an interesting element: Ten empty buses went in to evacuate the residents of Debaltseve and all ten went back full to Kharkiv. Ten buses also went in from Donetsk. Only one bus had people on it, going back to Donetsk.

Part of the problem is the leaders of the separatists WANT to push their borders as far west as possible, regardless of the death and destruction that would bring. 

[Photo Guy]

One more point- It's hard to lie about where the border is, where the battle line is, so Putin's propaganda can't affect that reality. So Ukraine should start by saying, no offenses in either direction will be tolerated. Stick to that and Putin will have no chess moves. Or tank moves. Bring in more observers to help police the battle line. More drones, etc.

[BillyB]

Through diplomacy, Putin should be challenged.   

We tried. It's been almost a year since Putin started going after Ukraine. Putin's answer to diplomacy is military action.

Draw a line in the sand. 'Do not step beyond this line.'

Imagine being back in school at the playground. The biggest bully is picking on a small kid. YOU get in the middle, draw a line in the sand with your foot and tell the bully not to cross it or else there will be consequences. The bully doesn't hesitate and crosses the line. What do you do?


The West got in the middle of this conflict, threaten consequences,  and drew up the ceasefire line last September for the Minsk Agreement. Putin didn't hesitate to cross it. The West's reactions are sanctions, accuse Putin of lying and asking him to a meeting conducted last Friday so they can offer a slice of the country he's bullying.

Bring in more observers to help police the battle line. More drones, etc.

Will those observers and drones bring guns and missiles with them? Assigning a million pair of eyes and cameras at the border to watch Putin isn't going to discourage him.

[mendeleyev]

In the first Gulf war, the USA took the opportunity to test all the new toys against Saddam's Russian-supplied arms. It was no contest.

In this war, the shoe is on the other foot: Putin is convinced that within a decade, if not even sooner, Russia will have a direct conflict with the West (NATO/USA). It is a battle for which he has been in preparation. So, now he is testing. As just one example, those new air defense systems obviously were not purchased down at the lakeside bait and tackle shop. The new Strela rocket system was not found on a shelf languishing at some Army surplus store.

Putin is banking on "sooner than later," and that is one reason why he do not seem to care how much suffering goes on at home--because he is confident that when the real battle begins, the Russian people will see the wisdom of his planning and foresight.

Russia is taking her time in a two-pronged strategy because they have a lot of new toys:

- Testing and training exercises within her own borders, but close to Ukraine.

- Then sending in select units across the border to gain live action experience after the training exercises. That is why there are frequent rotations of Russian regulars in and out.


That being said, Putin has no motivation for a negotiated settlement, unless it is strongly in his favour. He is practicing for a much bigger battle ahead. The Ukrainians are the JV, and his forces are the Varsity. He will practice and perfect his Army's abilities until either he wins, or he is forced to go home.

As I have preached time and time again, control of the whole of Ukraine is important for his Eurasian Union. There are a number of ways to realize that control, and marching into Kyiv, a costly adventure, will not be necessary if the EU hands him Ukraine on a platter.

[JayH]

"Problem is that the Kremlin has proved time after time that their promises and agreements are not worth the Ink in their signature. "
 

That is simply the fact that MUST be recognised in dealing with Russia.Even the ink is not used by Russia if it is not to their advantage.

Never to be forgotten--  Putin will never leave Ukraine alone--unless forced to-and I do not mean by ink on paper.

Putin's agenda is much wider than Donbas-- any "settlement " there will only be a staging point for the next offensive-- until Putin & Russia has control of all Ukraine( maybe only the small part most west where Putin believes the only real Ukrainians live is the exception)- Ukraine will face attacks,destabilisation,terrorism,invasions etc.
There is no appeasement possible.

Ukraine and Ukrainians are fighting for their freedom and for the very existence of Ukraine-- forget all the niceties-that's it.

[Chelseaboy]

UK Foreign Secretary Hammond today said Vladimir Putin is acting like a "mid- 20th Century tyrant ",whilst insisting in his limp-wristed way that diplomacy is the only way to go.

Meanwhile Russia/pro-Russian separatists have gained a further 500 Square miles of Ukraine territory since the last so-called peace agreement in September in Minsk,now holding 20% of Ukraine...so we can all see how effective diplomacy is proving.

Let's face it..Europe is run by a woman and the USA is run by a woman in a mans body..Putin knows this and will do as he likes,while the west bleats like Sheep.

[Doll]

Hard to believe how big an idiot he is really is!

Such a warped sense of reality? Or just plain dumb idiot!

Who- Lavrov? He is one of the most intelligent Ministers of Foreign Afairs

[Doll]

 Russia is taking her time in a two-pronged strategy because they have a lot of new toys:

- Testing and training exercises within her own borders, but close to Ukraine.

- Then sending in select units across the border to gain live action experience after the training exercises. That is why there are frequent rotations of Russian regulars in and out.

 

 .

Is it your imagination or you have the "first hand" official information?
As we all understand, this kind of infor is a top secret or will you share it on this respected board?

[lordtiberius]

LT, you're a very patriotic person. If the cowards in the West abandons your countrymen to die at the hands of a dictator, would you continue to donate your life in an attempt to join them?

Billy B, we took an oath.  Do those oaths have expiration dates?  Courage is never wasted Billy B.  Love never dies:

translated: Partisans destroy a BMP and a Machine gun nest in the Donbas
http://www.ukropfromua.com/novosti-ukrainy/223-partizany-unichtozhili-bmp-i-2-pulemetnyh-rascheta-lnr

In the first Gulf war, the USA took the opportunity to test all the new toys against Saddam's Russian-supplied arms. It was no contest.

In this war, the shoe is on the other foot: Putin is convinced that within a decade, if not even sooner, Russia will have a direct conflict with the West (NATO/USA). It is a battle for which he has been in preparation. So, now he is testing. As just one example, those new air defense systems obviously were not purchased down at the lakeside bait and tackle shop. The new Strela rocket system was not found on a shelf languishing at some Army surplus store.

Putin is banking on "sooner than later," and that is one reason why he do not seem to care how much suffering goes on at home--because he is confident that when the real battle begins, the Russian people will see the wisdom of his planning and foresight.

Russia is taking her time in a two-pronged strategy because they have a lot of new toys:

- Testing and training exercises within her own borders, but close to Ukraine.

- Then sending in select units across the border to gain live action experience after the training exercises. That is why there are frequent rotations of Russian regulars in and out.


That being said, Putin has no motivation for a negotiated settlement, unless it is strongly in his favour. He is practicing for a much bigger battle ahead. The Ukrainians are the JV, and his forces are the Varsity. He will practice and perfect his Army's abilities until either he wins, or he is forced to go home.

As I have preached time and time again, control of the whole of Ukraine is important for his Eurasian Union. There are a number of ways to realize that control, and marching into Kyiv, a costly adventure, will not be necessary if the EU hands him Ukraine on a platter.

Brilliant post by the way, but the costs have been heavy for Russia.  Have they not?  Isn't this a stupid way to wage war?

[Steamer]

Ukraine can win if properly armed, don't you agree?

The only way Ukraine could win is if someone else wins it for them.

And even if they can't win, they can resist indefinitely.  Resistance does not have to be done by  military means.  Cultural, political, economic resistance will accompany the Russian occupation.  Do you not deny this?

That is what they've been doing for the last 20 years anyway. How has that been working for them?

[lordtiberius]

That is what they've been doing for the last 20 years anyway. How has that been working for them?

They have been doing a lot longer than 20 years.  They are still there.  Not you or anyone else will exterminate them:

Putin threatens to use nuclear warheads against Ukraine, EU

http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/02/08/putin-threatens-to-use-nuclear-warheads-against-ukraine-eu/

the Russian president has deployed the ballistic missile system Iskander in Kaliningrad and on Crimea. This system is capable of launching nuclear warheads. Informnapalm reports several sources provided information the Russian president warned of using them ahead of US Secretary of State Kerry’s visit in Kyiv on 5 February 2015.

[Steamer]

They have been doing a lot longer than 20 years.  They are still there.  Not you or anyone else will exterminate them:

Putin threatens to use nuclear warheads against Ukraine, EU

http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/02/08/putin-threatens-to-use-nuclear-warheads-against-ukraine-eu/

And why would I want that? Putting more words in my mouth? Pulling more 'facts' out of your butt also?

[Doll]

That is what they've been doing for the last 20 years anyway. How has that been working for them?

[fathertime]

Germany and the rest of the EU didn't want to confront Russia. It took some pushing from America to get them to agree on sanctions. Russia influenced Ukraine before, why don't we let Russia continue to influence them? We'd be back in business with each other, benefit our economies and wouldn't get into a costly war. The EU does care about people in the free world as long as it doesn't cost them. Ukraine costs so it's an easy decision to sacrifice them to Russia so why does the EU sacrifice a little bit of their economy by applying sanctions against Russia in order to help Ukraine?

I made this point recently as well.  Obviously Russia cares a whole lot about continuing to maintain the influence that have had...I continue to hold that this is not the battleground where we should risk confrontation with Russia over...there will be a better time and place...but not Ukraine.


Fathertime!

[Doll]

I made this point recently as well.  Obviously Russia cares a whole lot about continuing to maintain the influence that have had...I continue to hold that this is not the battleground where we should risk confrontation with Russia over...there will be a better time and but not Ukraine.


Fathertime!

Like what? What is a better place?

[lordtiberius]

This is the will to win Billy B.  As long as Ukraine has it, they can win.

[lordtiberius]

I made this point recently as well.  Obviously Russia cares a whole lot about continuing to maintain the influence that have had...I continue to hold that this is not the battleground where we should risk confrontation with Russia over...there will be a better time and place...but not Ukraine.


Fathertime!

Where should we confront Russia?

[fathertime]

Where should we confront Russia?

Not in Ukraine.


Fathertime!

[lordtiberius]

Where then?  Florida?