The Failure of Diplomacy in Ukraine

[AkMike]

  Did you see how many wanted to go to Russia vs. the number that chose to stay in Ukraine?

 600 UA to 30 RU were the reported numbers.

[JayH]

The only thing on the table should be how quickly Russia...
1. Returns Crimea to Ukraine
2. Removes all Russian terrorists, troops, mercenaries, etc from Ukraine
3. Abandons all Russian weaponry presently in Ukraine.
4. Repays Ukraine for all the damage caused to the infrastructure in Ukraine and Crimea.
5. Pays compensation to the families of Ukraine soldiers killed by Russians and their operatives.

For some reason it seems once a bully invades a neighbor, negotiations should be limited to how much territory the bully gets.  How illogical!

She's right.  Set up a defended border, as with the Berlin Wall, based on the Minsk agreement.  Let "Novorossiya" survive on its own.  Those that want to be Ukrainians can move to Ukraine, the rest can stay where they are, funded by Novorossiya.

MrsB--  the position I highlighted in red should be the least Ukraine negotiates over. Over 80% of population of the Donbas  want to be Ukrainian-less than 5% indicated Russia.
Any wall built should be on the Ukrainian border-as it was.
There is no logic in rewarding Russia with territory for their invasion.
In the middle of last year-- the view of conceding the Donbas if it stopped the war and Russian encroachment was one I heard often--by November the same people had changed their minds into--to hell with it-lets fight to keep Ukraine whole.
That position makes most sense to me-- based on the reality that Russia simply will never leave Ukraine alone- as you wrote elsewhere today Russia believes it "owns" Ukraine.Putin has repeatedly said so.
All of the side issues discussed and rationalised by some here(everywhere!!?) are just that--part of kremlin agenda to cause confusion-while they get on with their own agenda.
Some of the older school Ukrainians may have a historically prejudiced view of the real Ukraine being the more western part--but events of the last year have proven how most Ukrainians now see it-- a whole country.
So the issue is simple enough-- it is about Ukrainians being able to control their own destiny--not have it imposed on them--  whether that be by Putin,he Kremlin,a few terrorists,the EU,Germany.USA or anyone else. What  the believers of freedom of choice should be doing is helping Ukraine be free to choose.

[fathertime]

Doesn't matter.  This is not what Putin wants.  He wants a conflict that will weigh Kyiv down for decades.  So, building a wall won't be a solution both sides agree to, it must be something one side does, possibly with foreign (non Slavic) peacekeeping forces in place.

So you don't believe this is a solution both sides would agree to...it reads like you are saying Russia won't accept it.  Well depending on the details I think they probably should...If they can agree on a new boundary. 


 Why would Russia care if what remains of Ukraine starts to do a little better, so long as Russia is doing alright too?


Fathertime!   

[Boethius]

At times, one has to bite the bullet for the good of the whole.  What good occurs if Ukrainian boys and men continue to die for months on end? 

[Boethius]

So you don't believe this is a solution both sides would agree to...it reads like you are saying Russia won't accept it.  Well depending on the details I think they probably should...If they can agree on a new boundary. 


 Why would Russia care if what remains of Ukraine starts to do a little better, so long as Russia is doing alright too?


Fathertime!

No, I don't.  Because this conflict is not about preserving a particular way of life in the disputed area. 
Russia cares because it wants Ukraine, and particularly Kyiv, in its sphere of influence.  Your lack of knowledge of history hinders you here.
 

[AC]

She's right.  Set up a defended border, as with the Berlin Wall, based on the Minsk agreement.  Let "Novorossiya" survive on its own.  Those that want to be Ukrainians can move to Ukraine, the rest can stay where they are, funded by Novorossiya.

This is really the only possible solution for now, and I've actually read somewhere that Putin might agree to a frozen conflict.  Definitely let Russia pay for the support of this territory, Ukraine is better off without for now.  Perhaps someday it will be re-united with Ukraine, but for now it's lost.

Calmissile it is not surrendering to Russia, it is simply a realistic and honest solution.  No way Ukraine could get that territory back, certainly not without ENORMOUS bloodshed, and quite frankly the Ukrainian military is no match to the more modern and advanced Russian military, and contrary to Putin's assertions, there are regular Russian troops there (on vacation of course) and a lot of advanced Russian military hardware.

[JayH]

At some point, living under the criminals who from the terrorists rebels, if Ukraine can be stable and move to a non oligarchic, kleptocratic government, the region, like East Germany, will reunite.  At this point, it is not worth the continued bloodshed and loss of soldiers' and civilians' lives.

The Russians  will employ a scorched earth policy ala Chechnya to achieve what they want-destroy everything to increase the cost to Ukraine.
The only way I would consider the Berlin wall approach is if --
1/  It was 100% enforced by NATO with 100% US involvement
2/  If it effectively became  frozen -along with Crimea--ie  Ukraine retains the right to reclaim
3/  Any Russian terrorism in Ukraine-- all bets are off

I would never agree to abandoning the Ukrainian people in the east--if it was closed--then the thugs and Russia should not be allowed to run it.

[fathertime]

No, I don't.  Because this conflict is not about preserving a particular way of life in the disputed area. 
Russia cares because it wants Ukraine, and particularly Kyiv, in its sphere of influence.  Your lack of knowledge of history hinders you here.

So if someday there is an agreement reached, and Kyiv remains with the Ukraine side, you will admit that you were the one that was mistaken right? Right?


 


Fathertime!     

[Gator]

At some point, living under the criminals who from the terrorists rebels, if Ukraine can be stable and move to a non oligarchic, kleptocratic government, the region, like East Germany, will reunite. 

Korea and Cyprus were split after a war.  Still waiting....  Will any nation other than Russia recognize Novorossiya?  I know, I know...North Korea.

At this point, it is not worth the continued bloodshed and loss of soldiers' and civilians' lives.

I don't believe this bothers Putin.   However, Putin surely realizes he will be sanctioned even more if he continues the war.   


Poroshenko seems willing to continue to fight, yet he realizes he needs to start his work to stabilize Ukraine and build a Western economy.  Thus, he will reluctantly accept a stalemate.   

Question.  Who pays for rebuilding Novorossiya?  Before, Putin said he wanted  Ukraine to pay.  Blood....turnip.....I know, I know.  The US and EU.

[Boethius]

So if someday there is an agreement reached, and Kyiv remains with the Ukraine side, you will admit that you were the one that was mistaken right? Right?
Fathertime!     

No.  I happen to agree with Jay, that the majority population in that region wishes to remain part of Ukraine, not join Russia (which doesn't want them, in any event).  This was never about the will of the people of the region.  It was about stopping Kyiv's EU ambitions.  That is why I say you don't understand the historical context.

[JayH]

At times, one has to bite the bullet for the good of the whole.  What good occurs if Ukrainian boys and men continue to die for months on end?

That is where the technology of modern weapons would be of huge assistance--it would reduce the losses considerably.
The Ukrainian military have done  in  battle terms--but can be improved dramatically with the tech available from the west.
The bottom line-- Russia will never stop by choice-- only when Ukraine can stop them.
So--either the west helps with defensive weapons-
or--gets involved as peacekeepers
or-- Russia will keep pushing across Ukraine.

[Gator]

So if someday there is an agreement reached, and Kyiv remains with the Ukraine side, you will admit that you were the one that was mistaken right? Right?
 

What does it sound like when something goes above your head?  Or do you even hear it? 

[Boethius]

Korea and Cyprus were split after a war.  Still waiting....  Will any nation other than Russia recognize Novorossiya?  I know, I know...North Korea.



I don't believe this bothers Putin.   However, Putin surely realizes he will be sanctioned even more if he continues the war.   


Poroshenko seems willing to continue to fight, yet he realizes he needs to start his work to stabilize Ukraine and build a Western economy.  Thus, he will reluctantly accept a stalemate.   

Question.  Who pays for rebuilding Novorossiya?  Before, Putin said he wanted  Ukraine to pay.  Blood....turnip.....I know, I know.  The US and EU.

If Novorossiya is an independent nation, it should pay its own way.

[jone]

What does it sound like when something goes above your head?  Or do you even hear it?

Gator,

It sounds to me like when Fathertime was trying to extract a statement from me that Russia was not going to invade Eastern Ukraine.  He hounded me for weeks, telling me that I was wrong and he was right.  Russia was not going to invade Eastern Ukraine.  So I complied.  I agreed that he was right, that Russia had not invaded Eastern Ukraine.  Of course, we now know that Russia did invade Eastern Ukraine, but, of course, Fathertime was too into himself to ever admit that he was wrong.  That is the reason I put him on ignore.

[fathertime]

No.  I happen to agree with Jay, that the majority population in that region wishes to remain part of Ukraine, not join Russia (which doesn't want them, in any event).  This was never about the will of the people of the region.  It was about stopping Kyiv's EU ambitions.  That is why I say you don't understand the historical context.

I never said the majority of the population didn't want to be a part of Ukraine...that was not an relevant to the discussion.  So if Kyiv winds up on the other side of "The wall" and not within Russia's influence then would you admit you were mistaken?   


Fathertime! 

[Boethius]

No, I would not have been mistaken.  The majority populations in this region do not support the terrorists separatists.   I just don't see the point in continuing the battle.
 
It would be capitulation to evil for the greater good.

[fathertime]

Gator,

It sounds to me like when Fathertime was trying to extract a statement from me that Russia was not going to invade Eastern Ukraine.  He hounded me for weeks, telling me that I was wrong and he was right.  Russia was not going to invade Eastern Ukraine.  So I complied.  I agreed that he was right, that Russia had not invaded Eastern Ukraine.  Of course, we now know that Russia did invade Eastern Ukraine, but, of course, Fathertime was too into himself to ever admit that he was wrong.  That is the reason I put him on ignore.

That is a distortion of our conversation. 
You only have me on ignore when you aren't reading my posts! 


Fathertime!   

[fathertime]

No, I would not have been mistaken.  The majority populations in this region do not support the terrorists separatists.   I just don't see the point in continuing the battle.
 
It would be capitulation to evil for the greater good.

So NOW you agree that Ukraine needs to be split....when I said that a year ago everybody scoffed and became irate with me!  This was the likely result from the beginning...if Russia accepts it.


Fathertime!   

[Boethius]

I never said it needs to be split.  I am stating that it is the best solution for the rest of Ukraine.  It doesn't matter if Russia accepts it or not.  Amputate. 
 
Why is that so difficult to understand?

[fathertime]

What does it sound like when something goes above your head?  Or do you even hear it?

Silly statements from a silly man...I'm engaged in conversation here, you are not.  haha.


Fathertime!   

[fathertime]

I never said it needs to be split.  I am stating that it is the best solution for the rest of Ukraine.
 
Why is that so difficult to understand?

It is very easy to understand...you just seem a little reluctant to admit it would be split....and of course I agree that it is the best solution for Ukraine...Last year when I looked ahead I thought this would be the best way to handle it....


Fathertime! 

[Boethius]

I don't think this is the best way, just as I don't think Cyprus and North Korea are the "best" ways.  However, I don't think the loss of Ukrainian lives are worth that territory.
 

[Muzh]

I don't think this is the best way, just as I don't think Cyprus and North Korea are the "best" ways.  However, I don't think the loss of Ukrainian lives are worth that territory.

The issue with FT is that he is afraid of a war, maybe nuclear, with Russia. Based on what he has written, he would rather lick Putler's boots as long as he "lives."


Correct me if I'm wrong FT.

[Boethius]

He also views it as some sort of "win win".  It's not.  Russia doesn't want that territory, which  costs more than it produces.  It is just a matter of deciding, enough is enough.  No Ukrainian life is worth that territory, or the bandits who are the "separtist" leaders.

[Boethius]

BTW, the idea that this was about protecting Russians, or the Russian tongue, is the utmost in stupidity, and anyone who believes that, or supports the terrorists on that basis, is an idiot.