The Failure of Diplomacy in Ukraine

[JayH]

Putin announces a cease-fire in eastern Ukraine midnight Feb. 14


MINSK, Belarus — Russian President Vladimir Putin announces a cease-fire in eastern Ukraine midnight Saturday.


http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/associated-press-putin-announces-a-cease-fire-in-eastern-ukraine-midnight-feb-14-380375.html
Leaders of the self-proclaimed republics refuse to sign Minsk talks document
Minsk – The leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk (DPR) and Luhansk (LPR) People's Republics, Oleksandr Zakharchenko and Ihor Plotnitsky, have refused to sign a document drafted at a meeting of the Russian, German, French and Ukrainian leaders in the Belarusian capital Minsk, a source in Minsk familiar with the situation told Interfax.

[mendeleyev]

This is part of the great deception: Russia will pretend to be happy over a cease-fire. The Russian terrorists will pretend that they are not directly controlled by Moscow.

Thus, after a lull to reorganize and rearm, the fighting will resume.

This isn't even close to being over.

[LAman]

Neville, you are the one advocating giving up Ukraine, or whatever it takes, to pacify the neighborhood bully.


Dear Lord in heaven, I honestly do not believe you to be that dense. It does not take a linguist to understand what "cease fire" means. What it did do, and what any new agreement will do, is give the terrorists an opportunity to be patched up and rearmed so that they can fight again. As soon as that happened, Russia pressed on ahead.

Putin is banking on a new cease fire agreement to do two things:
- As above, give his boys a breather and allow them to be recharged.
- He hopes the West to be stupid enough to think that if a cease fire holds for a short time, then no defensive weapons will need to be delivered.
- Sanctions will be eased.

Mendy? 'give his boys a breather?
This I don't understand. The separatists/Russians have some of Russia's most advanced weaponry and have been gaining territory for months. Why do they need a breather? To me, this is for Ukraine's benefit, it stalls while Ukraine can train better troops and wait for more sophisticated weaponry. US training to start in March.

I do agree with your other points.

[Doll]

Putin announces a cease-fire in eastern Ukraine midnight Feb. 14


MINSK, Belarus — Russian President Vladimir Putin announces a cease-fire in eastern Ukraine midnight Saturday.


http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukraine-abroad/associated-press-putin-announces-a-cease-fire-in-eastern-ukraine-midnight-feb-14-380375.html
Leaders of the self-proclaimed republics refuse to sign Minsk talks document
Minsk – The leaders of the self-proclaimed Donetsk (DPR) and Luhansk (LPR) People's Republics, Oleksandr Zakharchenko and Ihor Plotnitsky, have refused to sign a document drafted at a meeting of the Russian, German, French and Ukrainian leaders in the Belarusian capital Minsk, a source in Minsk familiar with the situation told Interfax.

BS
Putin can not "announce" anything. Don't twist

[lordtiberius]

This is part of the great deception: Russia will pretend to be happy over a cease-fire. The Russian terrorists will pretend that they are not directly controlled by Moscow.

Thus, after a lull to reorganize and rearm, the fighting will resume.

This isn't even close to being over.

Agree and . . .

But Merkel-Obama will declare victory AGAIN and they won't arm the Ukrainians AGAIN.

[Belvis]

The separatists/Russians have some of Russia's most advanced weaponry and have been gaining territory for months. Why do they need a breather? To me, this is for Ukraine's benefit, it stalls while Ukraine can train better troops and wait for more sophisticated weaponry. US training to start in March.

Both sides have announced mobilization, it takes time. Previous armistice have shown that rebels used the peace lull more effectively than Ukrainian army. It was stupid decision for Poroshenko to launch attack in Donetsk and break this lull.
      It seems now time is against Ukraine, economics continues to degrade. So there is a sense to keep political status quo at Donbass while not fighting.
      As for  weaponry... Ukraine has possed the largest arsenal of Soviet weapons, but managed to make it idle and broken.  The same will happen with any sophisticated weaponry unless it will be maintained by west personal.
      I agree with Mendy that cease-fire will not last long. The present nationalistic composition of Rada is not able to fulfill obligations at Ukrainian side, especially to realize the reform of Constitution and to provide required financing of Donbass recovery.

[jone]

Both sides have announced mobilization, it takes time. Previous armistice have shown that rebels used the peace lull more effectively than Ukrainian army. It was stupid decision for Poroshenko to launch attack in Donetsk and break this lull.
      It seems now time is against Ukraine, economics continues to degrade. So there is a sense to keep political status quo at Donbass while not fighting.
      As for  weaponry... Ukraine has possed the largest arsenal of Soviet weapons, but managed to make it idle and broken.  The same will happen with any sophisticated weaponry unless it will be maintained by west personal.
      I agree with Mendy that cease-fire will not last long. The present nationalistic composition of Rada is not able to fulfill obligations at Ukrainian side, especially to realize the reform of Constitution and to provide required financing of Donbass recovery.

I have never heard the Kremlin line stated more succinctly.  Belvis, it was almost as if you quoting from the Kremlin talking points that they give all of their paid trolls. 

Quite honestly, if you want nationalistic tendencies, look at your own Duma.  These Ukrainian nationalists only want one thing right now:  To be away from your country's influences.

[Gator]

This is part of the great deception: Russia will pretend to be happy over a cease-fire. The Russian terrorists will pretend that they are not directly controlled by Moscow.

Thus, after a lull to reorganize and rearm, the fighting will resume.

This isn't even close to being over.

I hope you are wrong; yet I believe you.  There seem to be many, many ambiguities. 

Most troubling is this seems limited to a ceasefire and leaves untouched the politics, which initiated the military conflict 10 months ago. 

As President of Ukraine, Poroshenko's most important job is to institutionalize the reforms (e. g., corruption) needed to modernize the economy.  The war is a huge distraction, thereby keeping Ukraine unstable.  Some here such as Boethius state destabilization of Ukraine is Putin's primary objective.  The new Minsk agreement confirms that Putin did not want to annex any part of Donbas. 

The ceasefire did come with a promise of $18.5 billion in aid from the IMF.  That is one positive from the Minsk talks.

[Gator]

...the time for your new and updated win-win would have been 1 year ago, but it was a bridge too far, and perhaps western interference/implied promises played a role in that. 

 

Neville (borrowing Mendy's accurate name for you  ),

What was different one year ago such that a deal negotiated with Putin then would have been a "win" for Ukraine?  In other words, what kind of deal would it have been?

I don't have a "new and updated win-win."   First, I never saw the possibility of a "win" for Ukraine once the Russian bear decided it must prevent Ukraine from succeeding.   Second, the situation in Ukraine is far too complex for me.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

   Continuation of my disgust for you

For you to say such answers Mendy's doubt about you - you are indeed dense, either that or a troll who receives a thrill from stirring shit and watching the reactions of others in the room.   I vote the latter based on my personal knowledge.

[Belvis]

Quite honestly, if you want nationalistic tendencies, look at your own Duma.  These Ukrainian nationalists only want one thing right now:  To be away from your country's influences.

No, I don't want to look at our Duma. Very boring place where boring guys discuss laws. Rada is more  fascinating institution with many scuffles and theatrical performance.
So, tell me a  strong incentive to respect the wish of Ukrainian nationalists. We're neighbors and not going to isolate Ukraine. 

The ceasefire did come with a promise of $18.5 billion in aid from the IMF.  That is one positive from the Minsk talks.

I would not call the credit as an aid. Soon or later Greece story will be repeated in Ukraine.

[fathertime]

This is part of the great deception: Russia will pretend to be happy over a cease-fire. The Russian terrorists will pretend that they are not directly controlled by Moscow.

Thus, after a lull to reorganize and rearm, the fighting will resume.

This isn't even close to being over.

A rather cynical view of a potentially positive step.  Why would Russia need to reorganize? Rearm?  It seems to me they were already organized and armed.  I don't see the benefit in them stopping. 


Fathertime!

[LiveFromUkraine]

A rather cynical view of a potentially positive step.  Why would Russia need to reorganize? Rearm?  It seems to me they were already organized and armed.  I don't see the benefit in them stopping. 


Fathertime!

FT, I would say the big reason is to keep the west from sending weapons.  Or at least postpone it with the possibilities of a cease fire.  I also think the end game is destabilization or a regime change because of destabilization.  The longer this war can be prolonged the better if that is the result Russia is aiming for.

[fathertime]

Neville (borrowing Mendy's accurate name for you  ),

What was different one year ago such that a deal negotiated with Putin then would have been a "win" for Ukraine?  In other words, what kind of deal would it have been?

I don't have a "new and updated win-win."   First, I never saw the possibility of a "win" for Ukraine once the Russian bear decided it must prevent Ukraine from succeeding.   Second, the situation in Ukraine is far too complex for me.


-----------------------------------------------------------------

   Continuation of my disgust for you

For you to say such answers Mendy's doubt about you - you are indeed dense, either that or a troll who receives a thrill from stirring shit and watching the reactions of others in the room.   I vote the latter based on my personal knowledge.

I know I'm supposed to care because you are disgusted...so let me shed a tear.   




It is interesting that the better things go in Ukraine the more angry you appear to get.  I view the latest potential agreement as something positive.  It is once again noted that you do not.  Remember it isn't me negotiating these deals, it is the leaders of the western powers. (who you have little respect for)


Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

FT, I would say the big reason is to keep the west from sending weapons.  Or at least postpone it with the possibilities of a cease fire.  I also think the end game is destabilization or a regime change because of destabilization.  The longer this war can be prolonged the better if that is the result Russia is aiming for.

Of course that makes much more sense then the other reasons given....but at this point I think the west bringing in weapons is already baked into the pie, and a ceasefire could actually be strategically bad for the pro separatists in one respect, as I don't think the process here in the states for giving arms isn't going to to slow down. 


Fathertime!

[cc3]

Remember it isn't me negotiating these deals, it is the leaders of the western powers. (who you have little respect for)

Fathertime!

France and Germany do not comprise "the leaders of the western powers". One is a country that has  sided with the 'west' only reluctantly since the time of de Gaulle. The other is a country adhering to semi-pacifist principles above any devotion to the well-being of sovereign nations under attack by fascist aggressors. The US, Canada, Japan and the UK were not in attendance. It would take, at a minimum, all of these countries, in my mind, to comprise "the leaders of the western powers".

[Boethius]

No, I don't want to look at our Duma. Very boring place where boring guys discuss laws. Rada is more  fascinating institution with many scuffles and theatrical performance.
So, tell me a  strong incentive to respect the wish of Ukrainian nationalists. We're neighbors and not going to isolate Ukraine. 

I would not call the credit as an aid. Soon or later Greece story will be repeated in Ukraine.

Really?  Never any fisticuffs in the Duma?

 
 

[BillyB]

BS
Putin can not "announce" anything. Don't twist

If Putin is not in control, why is he the one talking all the time for the rebels when it comes to negotiations? Is everybody, including Putin, stupid for including him? Western powers are there but so is Poroshenko.


Putin also agreed to pulling out foreign troops from Ukraine according to the agreement points below. He said many times in the past "I didn't put those troops there and have no control over them". He may use that excuse again.


Key points agreed on for peace

I don't think the process here in the states for giving arms isn't going to to slow down. 

Key point #10 said all foreign troops and their equipment must leave Ukraine. A pull back of heavy arms between both sides and foreign arms is suppose to leave the country but Putin is still hard at work sending in 50 tank, 40 missile systems, and 40 armored vehicles into Ukraine last night. Fool me once, shame on you(Putin). Fool me twice, shame on me(West).


Putin sending in his peace package delivery 1



The biggest victory for Putin is key point #4 "Ukraine's parliament must within 30 days pass a decree defining the geographical area that will have self-rule, based on the September agreement." This will allow those regions to either separate from Ukraine, join Russia, or continue to remain in Ukraine and have a significant say in their elections which could someday bring back another pro Russian president. There is a chance there will be peace for 30 days just so the Ukrainian government can pass that decree. Putin will evaluate the language and if it's not favorable, he'll get back to destabilizing Ukraine.

[ML]

Russian TV describes how Russia will invade several European cities.

[Belvis]

Really?  Never any fisticuffs in the Duma?

Thank you. Could you find more fresh fisticuffs in the Duma? This one seems to be about 10 years old, at least I saw one deputy who passed away 4 years ago.

[Muzh]

Mendy? 'give his boys a breather?
This I don't understand. The separatists/Russians have some of Russia's most advanced weaponry and have been gaining territory for months. Why do they need a breather? To me, this is for Ukraine's benefit, it stalls while Ukraine can train better troops and wait for more sophisticated weaponry. US training to start in March.

I do agree with your other points.

Actually, they ran out of body bags and need time for their next shipment.

[Muzh]

Both sides have announced mobilization, it takes time. Previous armistice have shown that rebels used the peace lull more effectively than Ukrainian army. It was stupid decision for Poroshenko to launch attack in Donetsk and break this lull.
      It seems now time is against Ukraine, economics continues to degrade. So there is a sense to keep political status quo at Donbass while not fighting.
      As for  weaponry... Ukraine has possed the largest arsenal of Soviet weapons, but managed to make it idle and broken.  The same will happen with any sophisticated weaponry unless it will be maintained by west personal.
      I agree with Mendy that cease-fire will not last long. The present nationalistic composition of Rada is not able to fulfill obligations at Ukrainian side, especially to realize the reform of Constitution and to provide required financing of Donbass recovery.

You mean "economy." Anyway,

Kiev got some positive economic news Thursday morning, when the International Monetary Fundannounced a new $17.5 billion aid package to make sure Ukraine’s government doesn’t run out of cash. Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said the loan deal, part of a broader package of Western assistance, would help stabilize Ukraine’s plunging currency and set the country back on track for economic growth.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-peace-talks-yield-cease-fire-deal-1423731958?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

[Belvis]

The biggest victory for Putin is key point #4 "Ukraine's parliament must within 30 days pass a decree defining the geographical area that will have self-rule, based on the September agreement." This will allow those regions to either separate from Ukraine, join Russia, or continue to remain in Ukraine and have a significant say in their elections which could someday bring back another pro Russian president. There is a chance there will be peace for 30 days just so the Ukrainian government can pass that decree.

Don't be naive. Point #4 will never be passed. Motivation for cease-fire is not a settelment but money from IMF. Ukrainian society is not ready yet for deep political reforms.

[Muzh]

I have never heard the Kremlin line stated more succinctly.  Belvis, it was almost as if you quoting from the Kremlin talking points that they give all of their paid trolls. 

Quite honestly, if you want nationalistic tendencies, look at your own Duma.  These Ukrainian nationalists only want one thing right now:  To be away from your country's influences.

Actually, what Bevis said is true to a fault.


There is no way the Rada will go along rewriting the Constitution to allow a frozen conflict and to add salt to the wounds have Ukraine PAY those motherfcukers to kill more Ukrainians.

[Belvis]

You mean "economy." Anyway,



http://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-peace-talks-yield-cease-fire-deal-1423731958?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

Yes, good news for Russia. Russia will get 3 billion $ back in time and can sell more gas in Ukraine.

[Muzh]

It is interesting that the better things go in Ukraine the more angry you appear to get.  I view the latest potential agreement as something positive.  It is once again noted that you do not.  Remember it isn't me negotiating these deals, it is the leaders of the western powers. (who you have little respect for)


Fathertime!

Interesting.


How do you see things getting better for Ukraine?