The Failure of Diplomacy in Ukraine

[BillyB]

I continue to hold it would have been better to negotiate VERY seriously earlier, and make the tougher choices then.  Now much later the costs have risen and the payout is/will be steeper.  Yeah it was predictable that Russia would escalate as high as they have to

If I remember correctly when we were debating last year, you didn't believe Russia was going into east Ukraine after Crimea. Nobody could predict the future except for the person in control which is Putin. Because nobody can predict the future, Ukrainians elected a president that is not pro Russia. The majority wanted to be free of Russia so they were willing to take their chances.


Last year you also said it's best Ukrainian regions should have greater autonomy. Imagine in your house you had a rebel child who claims his room and a bathroom as his own. He has to ask because he doesn't have autonomy and control of his space. You say "No". There have been cases of children killing off their parents to claim their assets so why don't you say "Yes"? Rare case so you think "no" is a safe answer. Your rebel kid enlists the help of a neighbor and bring guns into the house, kills a few residents, and now wants more.


According to the new and improved for Russia peace agreement, Ukraine now has 30 days to give regions more autonomy. With autonomy, Russia can rig the elections in those regions just as they did in Crimea. They will now be able to take over Ukraine without war, lift the sanctions, and buy those French warships. Putin's popularity will soar. Giving Putin what he wants and sell him weapons is not the answer. "When we hang the capitalists they will sell us the rope we use." - Joseph Stalin


When you see Putin's inner circle dumping their foreign currency to invest in rubles, that's a good sign they plan on honoring the ceasefire but make no mistake, they want Ukraine and that may not be their only goal.

[mendeleyev]

Outside of Istanbul, Moscow is the largest city in Europe. In past years one could see signs, posters, and expressions of various views all over the city. That began to change with the government crackdown in 2010 after the rigged Duma (parliament) elections.

Then came the rigged elections of 2012, in which the winner didn't need to cheat, so it was kind of stupid that he did anyway, and the government became even more hardline with the disruption of independent media and crackdowns on opposition speech.

Today, signs and posters that disagree with official views are taken down quickly. If the police can find the one who posted them, arrests are made. However, signs and posters that agree with the Kremlin's fascist views are tolerated, and often even celebrated.

Yesterday, an "acquaintance" whom shall remain unnamed for obvious reasons, took this photo of posters that have begun to appear around Metro stations. This one came from a tent that had been erected near Metro Tretyakovskaya, near the famous Tretyakov Art Gallery.



In case your Russian is not that good yet, it reads:
Завтра Россия станет больше.
Сегодня от тебя зависит насколько.
Помощь донбассу.

This translates as "Tomorrow Russia will be larger. Today, that effort depends on you!
Help Donbass" (the Russian fascist/terrorists fighting Ukraine).

Germany and France have sold Ukraine down the river in order to protect their own economies.The "Minsk-2" agreement is nothing more than a lull in the fighting. As soon as the Germans, French and other cowards have pulled back sanctions and negotiated for lower gas prices, Mr. Putin will be back on the offensive. This war in Ukraine is not even close to being finished.

Until forced to stop, Russia will continue to expand at the expense of smaller countries that suffered for decades under Soviet domination.

[mendeleyev]

and that may not be their only goal.

Billy, thank you. At times I feel like the lonely prophet crying out in the wilderness, but have written on this theme several times here, especially for Mr. Neville Chamberlain.

The Kremlin is increasingly beginning to air the idea that because the Cold War ended prematurely (in their view), and since there was no "Yalta" styled agreement between the CCCP and the West at the end of the Cold War, the result is that the issue of national boundaries are still "up for grabs" or unsettled.

Two official Kremlin publications have argued this in the more recent past.

- Russia Direct. (See my report on it here: http://russianreport.wordpress.com/2015/02/09/did-the-soviet-union-break-up-prematurely/)

- Russia Beyond The Headlines, (Russian political scientist Sergei Karaganov.) - Also published in the (London) Telegraph. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sponsored/rbth/opinion/10810159/ukraine-crisis-cold-war.html

Karaganov is no lightweight around Kremlin circles. When he writes, readers should take notice. He was an advisor to Boris Yeltsin, and he continues to advise Vladimir Putin. He is an advocate of sending Russian troops into the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to "protect" ethnic Russians in those nations.

In regards to the Kremlin's goals in this war with Ukraine, he writes about the Kremlin objectives:
"Among them is not just the reunion with Crimea or with other lands, which temporarily strengthens the legitimacy of its power. Its main aim is to end the unfinished Cold War which the West has de facto continued to lead and even to conclude a peace treaty on favourable terms."
 

[BillyB]

Germany and France have sold Ukraine down the river in order to protect their own economies.The "Minsk-2" agreement is nothing more than a lull in the fighting. As soon as the Germans, French and other cowards have pulled back sanctions and negotiated for lower gas prices, Mr. Putin will be back on the offensive. This war in Ukraine is not even close to being finished.

There is a chance with Minsk 2 Putin may feel he can take Ukraine without war and "costs". We have to wait and see the language in granting Ukrainian regions more autonomy. Poroshenko will have a tough sell in Rada. It's possible Poroshenko knows he can't sell Putin's demands but for 30 days of peace which slows down Ukraine's losses and Putin's gains, it may be worth pretending he'll go along with idea.

Billy, thank you. At times I feel like the lonely prophet crying out in the wilderness, but have written on this theme several times here, especially for Mr. Neville Chamberlain.

You aren't that lonely. Smart people can determine based on Putin's current and past actions that he's a man that will take from others. Unless there's something to stop him, why should he stop?

[Photo Guy]

Hence, the argument for arming Ukraine. Make the war expensive for Russia.

[Doll]

Hence, the argument for arming Ukraine. Make the war expensive for Russia.

It is the argument for more dead people.

[cc3]

It is the argument for more dead people.

It certainly is, especially for more dead barbaric muscovite invaders.

[Doll]

It certainly is, especially for more dead barbaric muscovite invaders.

What does it matter? Blood is red everywhere

[AC]

What does it matter? Blood is red everywhere

It does matter because Russian soldiers are not getting a proper burial per Orthodoxy.

At least for the families of Ukrainian soldiers whose body is recovered, they can give their son a proper burial and know that he died protecting his homeland.  It's a small but important consolation.

[lordtiberius]

Abandoned by their own people - a military tradition for the Soviets.

[fathertime]

Hence, the argument for arming Ukraine. Make the war expensive for Russia.

...it would be more expensive through the blood of the Ukrainian people first...after that who knows who's blood?.....is it worth it for us (the West)....obviously other nations we have left to their own devices. 


Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

If I remember correctly when we were debating last year, you didn't believe Russia was going into east Ukraine after Crimea. Nobody could predict the future except for the person in control which is Putin. Because nobody can predict the future, Ukrainians elected a president that is not pro Russia. The majority wanted to be free of Russia so they were willing to take their chances.

You may have me there Billyb...there was a brief time where I thought Crimea would be the end of it.  In the context of the conversation, I'd have to see exactly what was said and what I was responding to.  Many of the experts here also made wild predictions that haven't come to pass...otherwise Russia would have already been in several countries by now.

Last year you also said it's best Ukrainian regions should have greater autonomy. Imagine in your house you had a rebel child who claims his room and a bathroom as his own. He has to ask because he doesn't have autonomy and control of his space. You say "No". There have been cases of children killing off their parents to claim their assets so why don't you say "Yes"? Rare case so you think "no" is a safe answer. Your rebel kid enlists the help of a neighbor and bring guns into the house, kills a few residents, and now wants more.
 

Although I see the point of your analogy, I just don't think it holds water as it pertains to Russia/the Separatists. It seems the Ukrainians knew from the start that Russia was involved, so taking it seriously and negotiating VERY seriously would have been the way to go...IMO.   Of course fighting is another option, and the one they have taken.

According to the new and improved for Russia peace agreement, Ukraine now has 30 days to give regions more autonomy. With autonomy, Russia can rig the elections in those regions just as they did in Crimea. They will now be able to take over Ukraine without war, lift the sanctions, and buy those French warships. Putin's popularity will soar. Giving Putin what he wants and sell him weapons is not the answer. "When we hang the capitalists they will sell us the rope we use." - Joseph Stalin

It will be remarkable if France turns over the warships under these circumstances.    Some of your predictions have be correct so we shall see.    Interesting quote by Stalin.


Fathertime!   
 

[fathertime]

Billy, thank you. At times I feel like the lonely prophet crying out in the wilderness, but have written on this theme several times here, especially for Mr. Neville Chamberlain.
 

I don't think we (the USA) should have any more involvement then we already do...therefore I think being an isolationist is more accurate then Chamberlain references.  We don't need to be involved on the front lines of  European conflicts/wars.  If things reach the point where all sides are embroiled then we may or may not swoop in....although in this case, without our involvement it is doubtful it would reach that point.


Fathertime!   

[Muzh]

...it would be more expensive through the blood of the Ukrainian people first...after that who knows who's blood?.....is it worth it for us (the West)....obviously other nations we have left to their own devices. 


Fathertime!

Dude, you are still in a fog.


Is it worth for us in the West?


It is the Ukrainians who are doing the fighting WITHOUT help from the west.


Please understand, there are people who would rather die than to live in slavery, and then there are people who would not mind prostituting themselves to stay alive. A great movie describing the latter is "Seven Beauties." http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0075040/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_111

[Photo Guy]

Right. This war is all about the fate of the Ukrainian people. The West has its own interests, true. The goals of Ukrainians are more in line with the West. They want to follow a path similar to Poland, integrating with Western values, while keeping their own culture. There are cultural differences throughout Ukraine, but that can also be said about the EU. The discussion should center around- What Do Ukrainians Want?
   I think the best strategy for Kiev, would be to divorce themselves from the separatist regions. I'm not sure how this would be achieved, but it would be the most severe form of 'autonomy'. They want to be cozy with Russia? They want autonomy? Give it to them in an extreme version. Re-draw Ukraine's territorial lines. Don't give them Mariupol, which has demonstrated a strong preference for remaining with Ukraine. Draw the new border line, and separate. Create a strong military border. Assure everyone that Ukraine will not expand beyond that boundary. At the same time promise a strong response to separatist expansion beyond the border. Stop all support of the new separatist regions, from Kiev. You want autonomy? You've got it. Enjoy your RT news! Bring in the NATO weapons as a defensive deterrent. If most of Donbas remains a part of Ukraine, it will destroy all of Ukraine. Give government pensions to those refugees who have moved away from Donbas. Invest in Ukraine. Let Donbas sink or swim.

[fathertime]

Dude, you are still in a fog.


Is it worth for us in the West?


It is the Ukrainians who are doing the fighting WITHOUT help from the west.


Please understand, there are people who would rather die than to live in slavery, and then there are people who would not mind prostituting themselves to stay alive. A great movie describing the latter is "Seven Beauties." http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0075040/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_111

Thanks for the link to the movie. Looks interesting.    I don't currently have Netflix, but I'm tempted to go ahead and finally get it. 


Fathertime!   

[lordtiberius]

   I think the best strategy for Kiev, would be to divorce themselves from the separatist regions. I'm not sure how this would be achieved, but it would be the most severe form of 'autonomy'. They want to be cozy with Russia? They want autonomy? Give it to them in an extreme version. Re-draw Ukraine's territorial lines. Don't give them Mariupol, which has demonstrated a strong preference for remaining with Ukraine. Draw the new border line, and separate. Create a strong military border. Assure everyone that Ukraine will not expand beyond that boundary. At the same time promise a strong response to separatist expansion beyond the border. Stop all support of the new separatist regions, from Kiev. You want autonomy? You've got it. Enjoy your RT news! Bring in the NATO weapons as a defensive deterrent. If most of Donbas remains a part of Ukraine, it will destroy all of Ukraine. Give government pensions to those refugees who have moved away from Donbas. Invest in Ukraine. Let Donbas sink or swim.

Many of the Eastern Ukrainians are hostages to Russia.  Also Ukraine has to maintain social payments to these people.  I wonder how many people agree with this de facto partition.

[Muzh]

Thanks for the link to the movie. Looks interesting.    I don't currently have Netflix, but I'm tempted to go ahead and finally get it. 


Fathertime!

Please do, you will not regret it. One of Giancarlo's best performance.

[mendeleyev]

FT:

I think being an isolationist is more accurate then Chamberlain references.

Allow me to be of assistance, please.

Ron Paul is an isolationist.

Chamberlain was an appeaser because as he was willing to throw other countries under the bus, in the hope that Hitler wouldn't come after England.

You, FT, are Chamberlain. You have many times on this forum advocated giving Putin a piece of this, and a piece of that, in the hopes that he would be grateful and then go home.

Aggressors understand appeasers, but appeasers do no understand aggressors, and thus time and time again in history the appeasers are proved to be pathetic losers.

It is not too late to change.

[fathertime]

FT:
Allow me to be of assistance, please.

Ron Paul is an isolationist.

Chamberlain was an appeaser because as he was willing to throw other countries under the bus, in the hope that Hitler wouldn't come after England.

You, FT, are Chamberlain. You have many times on this forum advocated giving Putin a piece of this, and a piece of that, in the hopes that he would be grateful and then go home.

Aggressors understand appeasers, but appeasers do no understand aggressors, and thus time and time again in history the appeasers are proved to be pathetic losers.

It is not too late to change.

That was no help at all. 


It is not the USA's duty to rescue other countries across oceans. My primary focus is to keep the USA out as much as possible, thus far I'm satisfied enough.   Whether Ukraine decides to give Russia a part of their nation, or fights and loses more of their country is really their business.   Whatever works best for them.  I, and I'd venture to guess most of the American people don't think this is our issue and/or worth a major war...Obama may think the same way. 


Fathertime!     

[southernX]

FT:
Allow me to be of assistance, please.

Ron Paul is an isolationist.

Chamberlain was an appeaser because as he was willing to throw other countries under the bus, in the hope that Hitler wouldn't come after England.

You, FT, are Chamberlain. You have many times on this forum advocated giving Putin a piece of this, and a piece of that, in the hopes that he would be grateful and then go home.

Aggressors understand appeasers, but appeasers do no understand aggressors, and thus time and time again in history the appeasers are proved to be pathetic losers.

It is not too late to change.

mendy , spot on as per usual ,

putin will not stop , he is a taker , an agressor who will not be satisfied with what he is offered , he has a plan , it has been in process since at least 2008, , his 2012 ''win '' has seen him accelerate that plan ,

his military spending has increased exponentially in that time , he has assesed the current world leaders & deemd them to be weak appeasers , leaders who will not take action , he has thus set in play his moves , and kept them in stages to a min  that will not provoke a major military response from the major world leaders,

mr putin will continue like this , on and off taking more , using his propoganda to set the stage domestically to justify it all , he will not back down or compromise until he is beaten &has no choice

if he is allowed to continue with a few lulls in between , mr putin will build his military up to such an extent that it will take major war to attempt to stop him

imagine the scenario in 5 more years time , if he continues like this ?

there is no compromise or off ramp  with him just dirty games , thats his stock in trade ,
he is karga bear ,

SX

[lordtiberius]

That was no help at all. 


It is not the USA's duty to rescue other countries across oceans. My primary focus is to keep the USA out as much as possible, thus far I'm satisfied enough.   Whether Ukraine decides to give Russia a part of their nation, or fights and loses more of their country is really their business.   Whatever works best for them.  I, and I'd venture to guess most of the American people don't think this is our issue and/or worth a major war...Obama may think the same way. 


Fathertime!   

Getting called out by Mendy, what a humiliation.  It doesn't get any worse.

[mendeleyev]

It is not the USA's duty to rescue other countries across oceans. My primary focus is to keep the USA out as much as possible, thus far I'm satisfied enough.   Whether Ukraine decides to give Russia a part of their nation, or fights and loses more of their country is really their business.   Whatever works best for them.  I, and I'd venture to guess most of the American people don't think this is our issue and/or worth a major war...Obama may think the same way. 

Neville, what appeasers fail to comprehend is that aggressors do not quit until forced. Today it is Ukraine, but tomorrow it will be somebody else. Eventually that somebody else will be someone we have to back, but by then the Russian military will be stronger and larger and able to inflict more damage.

Please do not allow the fear of war to shape you into a coward. The United States, then led by Wm. Jefferson Clinton, signed the Budapest Memorandum, as did Russia, the United Kingdom, France and China. No guarantee of troops was part of the agreement, but we did agree to protect the territorial integrity of Ukraine. You did, I did, LT did, as did ML. We, the people, are the government of the USA, and either we are men of integrity, or we are liars.

Ukraine gave up nuclear arms upon your assurances, the assurances of Billy, of ChicagoGuy, PhotoGuy, Faux Paux, cc3, AC, Steamer, and others. We did this via our system of representative government. If you are a fair weather friend who agrees to keep your word only as long as it is convenient, then how sad.

I don't want "boots on the ground" either. But, we must either reinstate Ukraine's nuclear capability, or else we (those who signed the agreement) must arm them to the teeth. Based on our honour and integrity, we are less than real men if we do not.

[cc3]

With the impending second failure of Minsk-situated diplomacy, the following statements are very apropos:

"Above all, the West should redouble its support to Ukraine — not only financial and technical, but also military. It is in Europe's interests that Ukraine should be the stable democracy that the Maidan protesters wanted it to be — and with a neighbor like Russia, that can never be guaranteed without robust defenses.

The EU should let go of its illusions. It has spent two decades trying to develop a rules-based relationship with Russia. It is time to accept that its efforts have failed. Now the West has to invest in protecting itself and those who aspire to join it."

...from: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/minsk-peace-is-an-illusion/515934.html

[Doll]

.

Please do not allow the fear of war to shape you into a coward. The United States, then led by Wm. Jefferson Clinton, signed the Budapest Memorandum, as did Russia, the United Kingdom, France and China. No guarantee of troops was part of the agreement, but we did agree to protect the territorial integrity of Ukraine. You did, I did, LT did, as did ML. We, the people, are the government of the USA, and either we are men of integrity, or we are liars.

 

 

So, Mendy, you are an American, not "respected Russian Journalist"!
Wonderful
Опаньки! У вас ус отклеился