Ukraine Can Win

[BillyB]

everyday violence under this phony truce from September is not serious?

Not as serious as what's coming up. Next time Putin surrounds 8000 men, he may not let them go. Minsk 2 was a gift from God for them.

[lordtiberius]

There is a rumor that Sweden, Italy, France, Israel and Poland offered lend lease terms to Poroshenko. 

my source tells me:

"there was also a Polish drive to get the US to deliver military stuff to Poland for cheap (kind of like in the Cold War) with Poland then paying US companies to upgrade it

and Poland would have in turn handed over all its modernized Soviet stuff to Ukraine

M1A1 Abrams, F-16, Patriot systems, M270, Apache, etc. was on that Polish list... $ 40bn over the next 5 years

but obama was like "no, not really"

"

Poroshenko wanted it for free and that he refuses to fire his generals.  Maybe Mendy can verify this.

Not as serious as what's coming up. Next time Putin surrounds 8000 men, he may not let them go. Minsk 2 was a gift from God for them.

You speak of Putin with such glee

[mendeleyev]

Perhaps you feel you are the most important person writing about this crisis, but that is not a fact. 

Most important? No. But I can tell you that many of us with boots on the ground (journalists and observers) often scratch our heads at the decisions made by those who think they have more information, but do not. Often those decisions are idiocy when compared to reality.

[calmissile]

OMG! I take you off ignore for a moment and you are spewing the same old Russian bullshit as always.  I was hoping that you would have gotten educated by now.  Why Mendy wastes his time with you is beyond me.  You seem to have no respect for his experience and in depth knowledge which is probably much more than anyone else on the forum. 

You made a statement in some thread that you could assure us that a dozen (or perhaps a half dozen) men on the forum have had face lifts.  Do you pull these numbers out of your ass or do you know it for a fact?  Since you said you can assure us, please attempt to do so.....

The Ukrainian people get to decide what is reasonable for them...but YOU don't get to decide/insist on what help you may or may not receive from Western nations.

Mendy never implied he had the power to decide what help the west would provide.  Like you he has an opinion on what would be necessary to defend Ukraine from the Russian terrorists.

Given the actions/inactions of Western representatives, it appears to signal that military assistance is low on the list of priorities, and I continue to hold that is the right move for them to be making.  Most of us don't want to be dragged into this battle which Russia will probably escalate if need be.

Speak for yourself.   You certainly are too much of a coward to understand and defend liberty anywhere.  BTW, our cowardly president might be finally coming around.  With pressure from within his own administration to arm Ukraine, it appears that he might finally get off his ass and do what is right.   

No need to apologize. 
Perhaps you feel you are the most important person writing about this crisis, but that is not a fact.  The representatives with more information then any of us have made decisions to take this very slow, and I continue to believe it is the better route for them to go.

Your repeated attempts to discredit and insult Mendy isn't likely to give you any credibility on this forum.  He has been highly regarded on multiple forums for a long time.
 

False dichotomy, but regardless it is up to Ukraine mostly...we (the West) have imposed our consequences thus far. 

Once again, your ignorance is showing.   Your attempts to portray the US is manipulating and sticking our nose into Ukraine's business is just plain stupid!  In case you are not aware of it, Poroshenko and well as others have REQUESTED the assistance from the West, including the USA.

Now, I am going to put you and LT back on ignore so that I don't have to be bothered with your crap.




Fathertime!
[/quote]

[lordtiberius]

Why Mendy wastes his time with you is beyond me.  You seem to have no respect for his experience and in depth knowledge which is probably much more than anyone else on the forum. 

WTF Mendy?  Why do you talk to this baba ga douche?

Most of us don't want to be dragged into this battle which Russia will probably escalate if need be.

True

You certainly are too much of a coward to understand and defend liberty anywhere.

 

Oh yes

Your repeated attempts to discredit and insult Mendy isn't likely to give you any credibility on this forum.  He has been highly regarded on multiple forums for a long time.

Yep

Now, I am going to put you and LT back on ignore so that I don't have to be bothered with your crap.

 

You can't please everyone.  So you got to please yourself.

[Doll]

Enjoy

 

[Doll]

[AkMike]

Gee, I wonder why? 

Russian credit rating downgraded to 'junk' by Moody's agency

 
All three major credit agencies now rate Russia's credit status as junk
Russia's struggling economy has been hit by news that all three major credit rating agencies have labeled Russia's rating, 'junk'.

American firm Moody's said the decision was based on 'the continuing crisis in Ukraine and the recent oil price and exchange rate shocks'.

Russia's rating has already been downgraded to junk by the other two main credit agencies - Fitch and Standard & Poor's

[lordtiberius]

Unless you are Billy B, youu need to borrow money to wage war.

[fathertime]

Unless you are Billy B, youu need to borrow money to wage war.

That is an inane comment.


Fathertime!   

[lordtiberius]

That is an inane comment.


Fathertime!

How so?

[BillyB]

How so?

Ukraine is receiving 40 billion from the IMF. It's not going to win a war against Russia. Money isn't everything and if money is needed, they will go back to the Soviet method of doing things. Work the people and not pay them for many months.


Unlike Ukraine, Russia doesn't need to borrow to achieve their goals. Unlike the Soviets at the hands of near defeat from Hitler, Russia is much better off. They have more military equipment at hand, production facilities aren't damaged from war, and more natural resources available to them and to sell than the Soviets had. Don't be surprise a lot of that plastic Chinese junk we'll be buying is made from Russian oil.


LT, you've been trying real hard to get everybody to believe sanctions are bankrupting Russia and soon Putin's troops will just disappear from the battlefield because they aren't getting paid and Russia won't be able to buy/produce weapons. You want everybody to believe Russia will run out of gas before taking Ukraine. Silly talk. Did you know when Russia gets in a war with Ukraine, Ukraine's economy suffers more? If Russia invaded Poland or Germany, their economies will suffer more than Russia's. Why do you think the EU is so hesitant to enter into a war? It has more to do with damage to their economies than NATO losing. You somehow have this belief when Russia is in a war, they will bankrupt but not their opponents. Your hate for Russia prevents you from thinking rationally. People have stopped reading what you write. I'm moving toward that direction.

[lordtiberius]

You keep twisting my words when I question specific things that you write.  I give credit where credit is due.  And I have extended credit to you.  Instead if twisting words I never said, why not answer my direct questions? 

[mendeleyev]

LT, you two are on the same side, but may have slightly differing approaches to how the problem is solved. Learn to work with your natural allies, not by a constant dividing of your own household.

[lordtiberius]

LT, you two are on the same side, but may have slightly differing approaches to how the problem is solved. Learn to work with your natural allies, not by a constant dividing of your own household.

Billy B has been right about a lot of things and I have said where he has been right.  We agree:

1) Russia is not morally justified

2) We support the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine

3) There is no diplomatic solution to the crisis.  Ukraine must defeat the enemy on the Battlefield.

4) The West has been shamefully weak, indolent and cowardly

5) I think we agree that Putin wants to destroy Ukraine.

6) We both like Poroshenko

7) If the West wants to survive, it must confront Putin and must confront Russia in an effective way or risk nuclear war over a miscalculation

Putin understands, appreciates and exploits in the degenerate nature of the sleeping West

He has not extended me the same courtesy perhaps because he feels I have not earned it.  I can live with such a view.

Strobe Talbot said the Russians have a saying which is call things by their own name.  Here is where we disagree:

1) Ukraine can win if given a supply of weapons and training

2) Ukraine was winning the war until August

3) Sanctions will have no impact on Russian war-making

4)  Whether Putin is a gambling improviser or whether he is a master strategist

5) That Putin has weaknesses to be exploited

6) The costs Putin at home is incurring over the war

7) What Putin will have to do to maintain control over his country.

The effectiveness of the Russian military in war making

9) the economic gain Russia will gain from the conquest of Ukraine

10) Billy B's indifference to war atrocities committed by the Russian Army

In my last post, I stated how important it was to borrow money when you are making war.  Air operations and armored conflicts are VERY EXPENSIVE.  Russia has a lot of fuel, a lot of gold but it has no credit and with credit markets closing it makes it harder and harder to borrow money.  Even with all the banking contacts Putin made in Dresden before he met Sobchak, those contacts will not trade with Putin.  He maybe looking at asset seizure or assets being frozen.  Is Ukraine worth all of that?  Is it really?

If Putin conquers Ukraine, he will have to borrow money from the Chinese.  The Russians really hate the Chinese.  They hate the Chinese more than they hate the Americans.  The Chinese will want concessions from the Russians and the Chinese know how the Russians are.  At first it will be S&T, but pretty soon it will be economic and territorial concessions.  Would you trade Ukraine for Siberia?  Putin or his successor whether that is Navanly or Kadyrov will have to choose.

Let's say Putin conquers Ukraine.  Will it take months?  Weeks?  Years?  Let's say it takes weeks.  What will he inherit?  Ossentia are as I said crime havens and it will take DECADES for Ukraine to be economically viable and YEARS to gain pre-war access to credit markets.
 
So we agree over a great deal of things and when he is right I give him credit or remain silent.  He has the macabre way of cheerleading for Putin I find distasteful.  We have different approaches to war.  In short, I don't think he understands economics, warfare or the enemy.  You kinda need to know that if you find yourself in a war.

What say you?

[JayH]

LT, you two are on the same side, but may have slightly differing approaches to how the problem is solved. Learn to work with your natural allies, not by a constant dividing of your own household.

So we agree over a great deal of things and when he is right I give him credit or remain silent.  He has the macabre way of cheerleading for Putin I find distasteful.  We have different approaches to war.  In short, I don't think he understands economics, warfare or the enemy.  You kinda need to know that if you find yourself in a war.

I agree with LT on much of what he has said. BB has a strange way of trying to say what he has to say--- EG from above-
Quoting BB-
1/"LT, you've been trying real hard 2/to get everybody to believe sanctions are bankrupting Russia 3/and soon Putin's troops will just disappear from the battlefield because they aren't getting paid and Russia won't be able to buy/produce weapons. You want everybody to believe Russia will run out of gas before taking Ukraine.4/ Silly talk. Did you know when Russia gets in a war with Ukraine, Ukraine's economy suffers more?"
1/ LT has not been trying "real hard"--posting factual material of economic decline has mostly been done by others
2/ LT has never been great fan of sanctions
3/LT never said that-- BB attempts to attribute comment not made and then mock LT over it!!
4/BB  attributes conclusion not stated
BB has an annoying way of extending to a conclusion & attributing that conclusion to others--when in fact it was not the case.

[fathertime]

 

  Your hate for Russia prevents you from thinking rationally.

This statement sums up not only LT but several other posters as well.  However this is solved (assuming it is), it will be done with cool heads and steady hands...not freaking out and turning it into more than necessary.   


Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

LT, you two are on the same side, but may have slightly differing approaches to how the problem is solved. Learn to work with your natural allies, not by a constant dividing of your own household.

This is board of opinions, what you wrote reads like they are partisan politicians making policy...if there is a genuine disagreement then air it out (respectfully) instead of covering it up for the sake of getting along.


Fathertime!   

[lordtiberius]

This statement sums up not only LT but several other posters as well.  However this is solved (assuming it is), it will be done with cool heads and steady hands...not freaking out and turning it into more than necessary.   


Fathertime!

9% of my twitter followers are from Russia not Ukraine.  I talk to pro-Putin Russians all the time.  They are unfree and yet they have more courtesy than you.  Wonder why?

Most Russians that I talk to know I wish them well.  We share the mutual dream that Russians enjoy the same lifestyle we have in America.  They know I know their history, culture and language.  Those are areas you seem to lack.

I have published a book about the greatest military disaster in the Russian navy since Peter the Great.  The book is very sympathetic to the Russian side.  People on this forum know I think Solzhenitsyn is the greatest writer in my lifetime.

I have also produced my videos in the Russian language urging peace between America and Russia.  I agreed with Putin (and you) regarding Obama's illegal war in Syria.

I hate it when a Russian soldier dies.  I hate this animosity that exists between Russia and Ukraine.  It will outlive me and my son who speaks Russian.  My best friend in Ukraine is an ethnic Russian who will emigrate to Kazakhstan before he gets drafted to fight for Oligarchs.

So you can say what you want about me and Russia.  I lost respect for you a long time ago.

[fathertime]

9% of my twitter followers are from Russia not Ukraine.  I talk to pro-Putin Russians all the time.  They are unfree and yet they have more courtesy than you.  Wonder why?

Most Russians that I talk to know I wish them well.  We share the mutual dream that Russians enjoy the same lifestyle we have in America.  They know I know their history, culture and language.  Those are areas you seem to lack.

I have published a book about the greatest military disaster in the Russian navy since Peter the Great.  The book is very sympathetic to the Russian side.  People on this forum know I think Solzhenitsyn is the greatest writer in my lifetime.

I have also produced my videos in the Russian language urging peace between America and Russia.  I agreed with Putin (and you) regarding Obama's illegal war in Syria.

I hate it when a Russian soldier dies.  I hate this animosity that exists between Russia and Ukraine.  It will outlive me and my son who speaks Russian.  My best friend in Ukraine is an ethnic Russian who will emigrate to Kazakhstan before he gets drafted to fight for Oligarchs.

So you can say what you want about me and Russia.  I lost respect for you a long time ago.

I'm delighted you have 'lost respect'  it give you another outlet for your hate!
LoL 
Fathertime!

[lordtiberius]

You have the last word.

[JayH]

Out of the ashes of last weeks withdrawal from    Debaltseve, the military victory there is probably a political failure. After all, according to the logic of Russian officials, it turns out that the separatists can simply ignore President Vladimir Putin's will.

 My optimism was tested last week but  there have been various positive developments.This article deals with a major point that Putin has missed--again!
West decision to stop talking-- and start doing. Small commitments of training troops-now from about 6 countries,co-operative defence arrangements etc ,finance etc are all the thin edge of the wedge for a change of direction for Ukraine. Help for the economy and military aid are a start.


Russia Lost the Long Game at Debaltseve

As for Debaltseve, the military victory there is probably a political failure. After all, according to the logic of Russian officials, it turns out that the separatists can simply ignore President Vladimir Putin's will.

Doesn't that make it seem rather ridiculous that Putin would have spent a sleepless night in Minsk hammering out an agreement with the leaders of France and Germany that the separatists would deign to sign? That document clearly stated that on Feb. 15 the gunfire must stop and both sides must begin withdrawing their heavy equipment.

And yet, after signing that paper, the leaders of the self-proclaimed republics suddenly decided to continue fighting. Of course, it was Moscow, and not the separatists, that decided to continue the war. It is anyone's guess as to why Putin took such a dismissive attitude toward his own long hours of diplomatic work.

I suspect that the decision to seize Debaltseve was meant as revenge for the latest European Union sanctions.

That said, it is important to recall that French President Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel said before the Minsk meeting that it would be their last attempt to make the peace process work. And that is why they went so far as to prepare documents specifically for the separatists to sign.


http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/russia-lost-the-long-game-at-debaltseve/516451.html

[lordtiberius]

After Munich, Chamberlain became  very hawkish against Hitler.  The military preparations Chamberlain made would win the Battle of Britain.  But Chamberlain got bounced out.  He was made to look like a fool.

How long do Merkel and Frenchie have?

[JayH]

After Munich, Chamberlain became  very hawkish against Hitler.  The military preparations Chamberlain made would win the Battle of Britain.  But Chamberlain got bounced out.  He was made to look like a fool.

How long do Merkel and Frenchie have?

Along with Obama &Cameron-- all I care about right now  is that they arrive at the correct conclusion over Putin & Russia-- and do something positive for Ukraine  & the world. Just maybe,maybe they have made that decision now.

[lordtiberius]

http://crime.in.ua/news/20150225/donetsk-partizany

Partisans blew up war material in Donetsk.

Still think this has a happy ending for the Mad King of Moscow, Billy B?