Russia Annexation of South Osettia

[jone]

Those wishing to look beyond the current conflict of Ukraine with Russia will be interested in the Annexation of South Ossetia (formerly part of Georgia) outlined in the attached excerpts from an article that appeared in F.P.R.I.  - The Foreign Policy Research Institute.  (A Non-aligned Foreign Policy Think Tank)  From this article it is easier to understand the broad plan of continued annexation of areas and territories into Russia.

The link to the full article follows the excerpts:

Drafted in December 2014, the “treaty of alliance and integration” is meant to “legalize South Ossetia’s integration with Russia.” Its clauses go well beyond the matters of military integration and include the Russian takeover of South Ossetia’s border control, finances, economy, education, healthcare, and social welfare systems. On the other hand the agreement removes borders and restrictions on movement of goods and people between Russian and South Ossetian territories. The language of this document in itself is all-encompassing, and once the terms of this agreement are implemented, Russia will have truly swallowed South Ossetia, likely irreversibly so.

Some of the particular clauses of this agreement include South Ossetia’s handing over all defense matters to Russia, including the defense of South Ossetian borders (Georgia is on the other side of that border). By the terms of the agreement, any aggression by Georgia against South Ossetia would be treated as an act of aggression against Russia.

Below are a few selected clauses from the treaty which have been translated from Russian.

The Contracting Parties shall conduct a coordinated foreign policy, which involves mutual interests of the Contracting Parties in various fields of cooperation, informing each other of the committed actions in this regard , as well as closely cooperate in promoting peace, stability and security in the Caucasus region.

The Republic of South Ossetia transfers to the Russian Federation the responsibility to ensure law and order, public safety, and control of drug trafficking, as well as management of the internal affairs agencies, investigative bodies, and penitentiary system in South Ossetia.

The Republic of South Ossetia agrees to transfer its responsibilities in the field of customs and customs regulation to the Russian Federation. The customs authorities of South Ossetia will become part of the customs authorities of the Russian Federation.

Citizens of one Contracting Party shall have the right to acquire a nationality of the other Contracting Party under the simplified procedure. The restrictions that the Russian Federation might pose on those who do not possess Russian citizenship will not apply to the citizens of South Ossetia.

Republic of South Ossetia, with the support of the Russian Federation shall gradually increase the average wages of employees of state and local government agencies to a level comparable with the level of remuneration of appropriate categories of workers in the North Caucasus Federal District of the Russian Federation.

[Summary of multiple clauses] Russian citizens permanently residing in the territory of the Republic of South Ossetia , are eligible for pensions, benefits and other forms of social security at a level comparable with average level of pensions and other social security in the North Caucasus Federal District of the Russian Federation. Russian laws and regulations as well as benefits of the Russian social welfare system will apply to all those individuals living in South Ossetia who take Russian citizenship.

The Central Bank of the Russian Federation will assist the National Bank of the Republic of South Ossetia in the implementation of monetary policy and strengthening the financial system of the Republic of South Ossetia.

The author goes on to make some broad assumptions:

Earlier this month, during her official visit to the US, Georgia’s new minister of foreign affairs Tamar Beruchashvili told RFE/RL in an interview that for Russia “the next move is [South] Ossetia; there are signals that the Crimea-like scenario could be repeated and South Ossetia could be annexed.” Additionally, Ms. Beruchashvili warned that Russia’s involvement in Moldova’s Transnistria and Georgia’s Abkhazia and South Ossetia are components of one big Russian strategy. But at this point these statements carry no weight as it is probably too late to save South Ossetia from being swallowed up by Russia. If there is to be any reversal, it is crucial that the West look at the events in Ukraine and Georgia (and Moldova) not in isolation from each other but of a piece and address the broader issue of Russian expansionism.

http://www.fpri.org/articles/2015/02/russias-quiet-annexation-south-ossetia

I was particularly interested in the annexation document as it almost mirrors the Anschluss documents that I reviewed which brought Austria into the Third Reich.  The article also contemplates the inclusion of Transnistria as a possible future addition to Russia.  Notice on the map of the logic of incorporating South Ossetia into Russia.  After all, doesn't the new border follow a logical and uninterrupted straight line? (NOT!)

[mendeleyev]

Jone, just recently Russia has announced a deal in which they will merge the armed forces of Abkhazia, another breakaway Georgian province, into the Russian military structure. Most of Abkhazia's bases are already run by the Russian military anyway.

As readers may recall, both South Ossetia and Abkhazia were "liberated" as a result of the Russian invasion (Mr. Putin's modern day way of describing that conflict) of Georgia in 2008.

[mendeleyev]

As to whether South Ossetia desires to be annexed, the Kremlin will point to various pols, and to the kinship many South Ossetians feel with neighboring North Ossetia.

The truth is often obscured by the fact that Russia has continued the policy of the Tsars, and then the Soviets, in migrating ethnic Russian minorities into areas like this in order to off set the native ethnic balance. The Red Army invasion of South Ossetia in 1921-22 led to the capital being moved to Tskhinvali.

Most of these South Caucasus mountain communities are not "natural allies" of the Russians; each was conquered either during the Caucasus wars by Imperial Russia, or by the Soviet Red Army. Religion plays an important role in cultural life, and previous generations had established Orthodox Christianity (with the Orthodox Church of Georgia) as the majority expression of faith. There is a significant Muslim minority population.

Other than gas pipelines, there is little in economic output, and very high unemployment. The economy depends on funding from Moscow, heavily. There is little additional incentive in annexation from an economic standpoint, other than cheap labour and the fact that Moscow is already heavily subsudizing the economy. Of concern to Russian PM Medvedev's government however, is the additional economic drain in bringing SO pensions and social contracts up to the level of other Russian citizens.

[jone]

What then, other than the fierce nationalism being promoted by Russia, currently, could be the incentive for making these areas of Georgia permanently part of Russia?   

Perhaps this is the realization of Putin's dream of revising the borders that was never sufficiently resolved in Putin's mind.  My understanding is that the huge budget drain of these areas incorporated into Russia, in no fashion make up for the increased area assigned to the Russian Federation.

[mendeleyev]

You are correct, Jone.

This is a result of the "Russian World" view now propagated by the Kremlin. That view believes that unlike the end of WWII in which countries were divided, the Cold War had no such "Yalta Conference," and thus the boundaries from the breakup of the CCCP are still not set in stone. That worldview then builds on the idea that since Russia is no longer considered as an "equal" on the world stage, then it is Russia's inherent right to decide those boundaries on her own.

This idea is not hidden; far from it, the idea is widely published. For Putin and company, the destinies of Ukraine, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and the Balkans are still on the table, up for negotiation, or up for grabs.

Poland is NATO, and therefore untouchable. At least for now.

Bulgaria, a satellite is gone to the EU.

Romania, another satellite of sorts, also gone.

But I think that you will discover in the very near future that Mr. Putin does not believe that the three Balkan nations are worth NATO's efforts, and he will test those limits, possibly sometime in this decade. That outcome will not be decided by spineless Europe, but by whoever wins the next round in Washington. At this point it could go either way. If NATO flinches, then it would be finished. At that point Poland would be next on the list.

He needs Belarus and Kazakhstan in his corner, and so as long as they do not bolt from the Eurasian Union, they are safe. However, when he is done meddling with the others mentioned above, Minsk and Astana will be back on the table.

This is the most important point, something that the Neville Chamberlains cannot seem to grasp: how the West deals with Ukraine now, will directly determine how the Kremlin will deal with these other boundaries later.

[lordtiberius]

Most people ignore this story despite the history and natural beauty of the land and its people.  Before Saakashavili Georgia was the most corrupt country in a corrupt neighborhood.  Saakasvili turned that around and part of the reason why the Georgian war started was because separatist provinces wanted to return to Georgia.  The breakaway provinces are restive and do not much care to live in Putin's mafia state.

[fathertime]

You are correct, Jone.

This is a result of the "Russian World" view now propagated by the Kremlin. That view believes that unlike the end of WWII in which countries were divided, the Cold War had no such "Yalta Conference," and thus the boundaries from the breakup of the CCCP are still not set in stone. That worldview then builds on the idea that since Russia is no longer considered as an "equal" on the world stage, then it is Russia's inherent right to decide those boundaries on her own.

This idea is not hidden; far from it, the idea is widely published. For Putin and company, the destinies of Ukraine, Moldova, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and the Balkans are still on the table, up for negotiation, or up for grabs.

Poland is NATO, and therefore untouchable. At least for now.

Bulgaria, a satellite is gone to the EU.

Romania, another satellite of sorts, also gone.

But I think that you will discover in the very near future that Mr. Putin does not believe that the three Balkan nations are worth NATO's efforts, and he will test those limits, possibly sometime in this decade. That outcome will not be decided by spineless Europe, but by whoever wins the next round in Washington. At this point it could go either way. If NATO flinches, then it would be finished. At that point Poland would be next on the list.

 

I don't see Putin going after the Balkan nations....it is obvious that NATO would react militarily, and in all likelihood it would be rightfully so...Poland too now?...seems like scare tactics for intervention in Ukraine.


 Fathertime! 

[fathertime]

This is the most important point, something that the Neville Chamberlains cannot seem to grasp: how the West deals with Ukraine now, will directly determine how the Kremlin will deal with these other boundaries later.

Hey!  I thought I was Neville...now you tell me there are more just like me...hurts my feelings.





Fathertime!   

[lordtiberius]

I don't see Putin going after the Balkan nations

Why not?

....it is obvious that NATO would react militarily,

Based on what evidence?

...Poland too now?...seems like scare tactics for intervention in Ukraine.

Why?

...hurts my feelings.





Fathertime!

Chamberlain was wise enough to recognize he had made a mistake and he tried to correct them.  Such comparisons to the former Prime Minister and you are a bit unfair.

[fathertime]

Why not?

 

Why would he?

Based on what evidence?

Why would NATO not react militarily?

Chamberlain was wise enough to recognize he had made a mistake and he tried to correct them.  Such comparisons to the former Prime Minister and you are a bit unfair.

If this conflict gets solved without US intervention (weaponry or troops), then the reincarnated Chamberlain would have been more correct to begin with...no need to correct a mistake.   


Fathertime!   

[lordtiberius]

Why would he?

When do gamblers stop gambling?  When they are winning or when they have lost it all?

Why would NATO not react militarily?

There is no evidence that NATO is acting aggressively anywhere.

If this conflict gets solved without US intervention (weaponry or troops), then the reincarnated Chamberlain would have been more correct to begin with...no need to correct a mistake.   


Fathertime!

You have not been right about anything when it comes to this conflict.  That's another reason why the Chamberlain comparison is unfair, Chamberlain knew things (even without an internet browser.)  And Chamberlain had hair

[fathertime]

When do gamblers stop gambling?  When they are winning or when they have lost it all?

 

Is Putin a 'gambler' in the sense you are implying?

There is no evidence that NATO is acting aggressively anywhere.

True...but why would they?  They haven't been attacked.   

You have not been right about anything when it comes to this conflict.  That's another reason why the Chamberlain comparison is unfair, Chamberlain knew things (even without an internet browser.)  And Chamberlain had hair

I don't have hair!     Ukraine hasn't been engulfed in its entirety like many here (including yourself) insisted was going to happen nearly a year ago....it could have happened, but wasn't on the plate... ...I continue to argue that it never was.


Fathertime!   

[lordtiberius]

Is Putin a 'gambler' in the sense you are implying?



True...but why would they?  They haven't been attacked.   





I don't have hair!     Ukraine hasn't been engulfed in its entirety like many here (including yourself) insisted was going to happen nearly a year ago....it could have happened, but wasn't on the plate... ...I continue to argue that it never was.


Fathertime!

None of this has anything to do with the subject that jone or Mendy brought up, so if you have a question or comment relevant to that, I would love to here it, if not I really don't care to discuss this on a thread dedicated to the Caucuasuses

[fathertime]

None of this has anything to do with the subject that jone or Mendy brought up, so if you have a question or comment relevant to that, I would love to here it, if not I really don't care to discuss this on a thread dedicated to the Caucuasuses

Stumped.
LOL


Fathertime! 

[AkMike]

deleted

[mendeleyev]

Neville Chamberlain:

I don't see Putin going after the Balkan nations....it is obvious that NATO would react militarily, and in all likelihood it would be rightfully so...Poland too now?...seems like scare tactics for intervention in Ukraine.

I hope that you are right.

But, given what I see and hear in Moscow, I am concerned.

[lordtiberius]

But, given what I see and hear in Moscow, I am concerned.

Serbia and Bulgaria are the usual targets, are they on the hit list?

[lordtiberius]

Is Putin a 'gambler' in the sense you are implying?

I think he is.  The book I am reading describes Putin as extremely greedy from his Dresden years where he was an active agent making important contacts in the West German banking industry.

True...but why would they?  They haven't been attacked.   

Probably not under this leadership.  Hypothetical Zombie Reagan might knock those birds out of the sky. 

This is the problem with killing and war.  There are real pilots in those planes heading to London on a milk run.  Yeah, they had a choice in the jobs they choose.  But I really hate killing even perceived "bad guys" who have questionable intentions and no blood on their hands (yet).

Good questions

I don't have hair!     Ukraine hasn't been engulfed in its entirety like many here (including yourself) insisted was going to happen nearly a year ago....it could have happened, but wasn't on the plate... ...I continue to argue that it never was.


Fathertime!

The hair bit was a cheap shot.  If you aren't making fun of me, I, unlike Novorossiya, will honor the truce and I retract, apologize and promise to try harder next time to avoid near ocassions of injury.

[fathertime]

The hair bit was a cheap shot.  If you aren't making fun of me, I, unlike Novorossiya, will honor the truce and I retract, apologize and promise to try harder next time to avoid near ocassions of injury.

no problem...


Fathertime! 

[msmobyone]

Most people ignore this story despite the history and natural beauty of the land and its people.  Before Saakashavili Georgia was the most corrupt country in a corrupt neighborhood.  Saakasvili turned that around and part of the reason why the Georgian war started was because separatist provinces wanted to return to Georgia.  The breakaway provinces are restive and do not much care to live in Putin's mafia state.

Hmm, I disagree with your premise that any decline in corruption is solely down to Saakasvili, who tried to bring the nation up to speed and reduce reliance on Russia = 'crime' ... to the Kremlin

I also disagree that the regions of Abkhazhia and S. Osettia do not want the 'protection' of the Kremlin. They do not consider themselves Georgian and Moscow was happy to 'peace-keep', then hand out RU passports.

The war of 2008 was about Georgia feeling it had the backing of the west to reassert control of regions controlled by separatists that were shelling Georgian villages, while the Russian 'peace-keepers' looked the other way.

These regions - in particular - are Russia's answer to Kosovo, in that Russia regarded them as ethnically separate and entitled to self-determination and independence/ assimilation.

The disputed regions have been part of The Greek, Georgian, Ottoman and Russian empires, with Stalin - a Georgian making them part of Georgia SSR - hence the Georgian claim to be the legit ruler.

For sure, Moscow has taken advantage of the situation, but to state that those living in Abkhazia  or S. Osettia 'resent' the Kremlin is simply incorrect. They rely on Russian support to prevent control from Tbilisi.


 

[mendeleyev]

They overwhelmingly wanted to be freed of Georgian rule, especially Abkhazia, more Muslim than the very Christian Georgia. Religion, language, culture and history all combined to cause them to clash.

I support Abkhazian and South Ossetian independence for a variety of reasons, including the fact that they were conquered by the Russian Empire against their wills.

Moby, as to Georgia starting the war, you'll have to disagree with Vladimir Putin on that issue. These days he takes full credit, claiming that he was forced to move in because Georgia was, according to Russian security services, planning to stage terror attacks at Sochi, both during construction and the games. The FSB supposedly had evidence that Georgia was training terrorists to be staged in Abkhazia. He says that shelling back and forth between those factions gave Russian troops "cover" to move in.

His starting the 2008 war, and thus being a hero in saving Russians, was one of his re-election claims in the 2012 election.

[lordtiberius]

These frozen conflict zones aren't exactly boom towns but mafia states.