Back to War?

[BillyB]

As some of you know, a big reason for Putin accepting Minsk 2 peace agreement is because Ukrainian President Poroshenko agreed to give two regions in east Ukraine greater autonomy which basically paves the way for those regions to create their own nations, be annexed by Russia or stay in Ukraine without having to answering to the federal government but allowed to vote in elections which could pave the way for another Russian puppet president to rule Ukraine.


For those pro Ukraine, the bad news is that today Poroshenko signed into law giving the rebel held east more self rule. The good news is that Poroshenko is smarter Putin thought. The small print says before winning autonomy the separatists must hold local elections under Ukraine law and international monitoring, as well as hand in weapons and disband armed groups.


The rebels and Moscow strongly object and says Ukraine has continually violated the cease fire and undermining the agreements in Minsk 2 and does not want peace.


It seems the rebels and Moscow are afraid to allow elections with international monitors helping with the count of votes and making sure nobody, including dead people, vote more than once. If the majority of people living in east Ukraine are truly pro Russian, the rebels and Moscow have nothing to fear about holding elections before winning autonomy. I have a feeling the truth will hurt.


Minsk 2 is coming to an end.

[mendeleyev]

I am not sure why Moscow cares either way. Putin has no personal stake in the conflict. Russia has no troops in Ukraine. Those boys in zinc caskets were just stupid sods who ran off with state owned tanks while on vacation.

 


But, then again you are right Billy. Sometimes one wonders if Putin thinks the world is really so stupid, or is he just laughing behind the West's back. I'll answer that for those who do not know: He is laughing.

[Belvis]

It seems the rebels and Moscow are afraid to allow elections with international monitors helping with the count of votes and making sure nobody, including dead people, vote more than once.

No, rebels do not afraid to hold elections. They just follow the text of Minsk-2.
Now the next 2 steps must be done before elections can be possible (according the procedure written in the agreement):

1. Full amnesty for rebels secured by Ukrainian law.
2. Resuming pensions and work of Ukrainian  banking system in rebel regions.

That is the challenge for Ukrainian politics as well as budget. And yes, Russia has no obligations according the Minsk-2 agreement. If Ukraina fail to keep the procedure of Minsk-2 then a great chance for the war to resume. And inevitable Minsk-3 conditions will be more humiliating for Kiev. Either you win a war and dictate, or lose and pay for the peace, the world lives in this way thousands years.

[jone]

No, rebels do not afraid to hold elections. They just follow the text of Minsk-2.
Now the next 2 steps must be done before elections can be possible (according the procedure written in the agreement):

1. Full amnesty for rebels secured by Ukrainian law.
2. Resuming pensions and work of Ukrainian  banking system in rebel regions.

That is the challenge for Ukrainian politics as well as budget. And yes, Russia has no obligations according the Minsk-2 agreement. If Ukraina fail to keep the procedure of Minsk-2 then a great chance for the war to resume. And inevitable Minsk-3 conditions will be more humiliating for Kiev. Either you win a war and dictate, or lose and pay for the peace, the world lives in this way thousands years.

Belvis - reading from official FSB talking points again. 

[lordtiberius]

Reading Belvis' response is like watching video loops of a 62 year old man scoring 6 goals in an ice skating spectacle pathetic.  Belvis, if you want Ukraine man up and annex it and rebuild it, make its inhabitants Russian subjects and pay them.  But you won't because you are

1) broke
2) corrupt
3) both

Own it!

[mendeleyev]

Belvis, first off, after Vova's recent performance at the Konstantin Palace in Piter, I now realize something that I missed in 2012. Do you remember his outdoor speech just after the 2012 elections when standing alongside Medvedev, he cried on stage. At that time, I thought the puffy face was from those tears. Now however, I understand that he is allergic to the botox. Either you should tell him, or I will broach the subject with Dr. Mironov. One of us should help Vova "save face" from all this stress.

On to the Minsk-2 agreement on limited autonomy for the Donbas:

Crimea had autonomy. It had, until ousted in the middle of the night, a parliament and prime minister. Overnight it suddenly had a new, unelected, parliament and a new, unelected, prime minister who holds a Russian passport, but no Ukrainian citizenship. So, if Putin will so easily disregard Crimean autonomy, why should Kyiv trust the man on Donbas or "New Russia" autonomy?

If you want to know who are the fascists, just ask the Tatars.

Why is Putin afraid of having honest folk run the elections? Putin has shown his real character in regards to his new admission that he lied about his troops setting up the annexation, oh excuse me, the Kremlin's politically correct term is now "reunification" of Crimea. You know in your heart that the 2010 elections were a sham, the Crimean voting was a sham election, and the Donbas referendums were a sham. What is Vova afraid of this time?

Putin ignores the referendums to the Dagestani and Chechen people for independence, so if the coal miners of Eastern Ukraine voted against his wishes, would be accept and recognize that? Or, are these elections just for show and in reality, totally meaningless?

By the way, you are wrong about the election procedures. I do not know if you wrote from ignorance, or from malice, but allow me to help further your understanding. The text of the Minsk-2 regarding elections reads:

 Article 4: On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine “On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” and also about the future of these districts based on the above mentioned law.

Article 9: Restore full control over the state border by Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfilment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.

And again:

Article 12: Based on the Law of Ukraine “On interim local self-government order in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions”, questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.


Oh, and just a couple more little housekeeping notes:

We need to talk about borders, and recently taken territory. Because...

Article 4b: Within 30 days of the signing of the declaration, Ukraine's parliament must adopt a law identifying the territory which falls under the terms of the temporary status of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The territory should be based on the demarcation line established in the 19 September 2014 Minsk memorandum.

We should also mention the agreement on weapons withdrawal. Because...

Maybe Vova was just tired after struggling with Luka for that chair. Or, perhaps his eyes were puffy from the botox allergy. Maybe, he is ignorant of his own military hardware? Your Vova signed the Minsk agreement which states:

Article 2. The withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both parties at equal distances in order to create at least a 50 kilometer security zone for 100mm or larger caliber artillery systems, a 70 kilometer security zone for Grad multiple rocket launcher systems and a 140 kilometer security zone for the MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, and Smerch multiple rocket launcher systems and Tochka (Tochka-U) tactical missile systems.

Belvis, are you a weapons specialist? I am not, but do know that the Tornado S is exclusively Russian. It has never been shared with, or exported to, other countries. The more common version, 9A, was put into service in 2008 and the latest version, the G series, in 2014. The only trained operators are contract troops, professionals, in the Russian ground forces.

If Vova has no boys in Ukraine, what happened? Did some vacationing single young males think it cool to take a deadly rocket launching system on holiday? Did they steal it, and then sell it to coal miners who suddenly evolved from shoveling black rocks to operating sophisticated rocket equipment? Or, is your president being misled by his generals? Maybe, and here is a thought, he has been caught in another fib?!


To Billy's point above, Putin has claimed, time after time, that he has no skin in the game. His troops are not there, his equipment is not there, and he has no control over what the rebels do, because they are not his rebels. Yet, he signed a document that dictated the terms of their peace, and has committed to the withdraw of their military forces. Fascinating!

[lordtiberius]

Everything you said is true.  But the fact remains is that the International community has accepted this.

[Boethius]

Interesting talk by historian Timothy Snyder -
 

[lordtiberius]

He has a lot of interesting things to say but he is an academic elitist who hates fellow Americans even those that agree with him.  Kinda dumb in that way

[BillyB]

If Ukraina fail to keep the procedure of Minsk-2 then a great chance for the war to resume. And inevitable Minsk-3 conditions will be more humiliating for Kiev. Either you win a war and dictate, or lose and pay for the peace, the world lives in this way thousands years.

You're right, the guy with the biggest stick gets to win wars and dictate but Putin will be the biggest crybaby if America gets involved in helping Ukraine. Tell him it's the way the world lives for thousands of years.


Belvis, why do you think Moscow and the rebels are afraid to have international monitors at elections? Maybe they don't represent the majority? Ukraine is ready to give them everything they want as long as they hold elections first with international monitors. I have a feeling they will pass this opportunity for freedom and choose war.

[Belvis]

You're right, the guy with the biggest stick gets to win wars and dictate but Putin will be the biggest crybaby if America gets involved in helping Ukraine. Tell him it's the way the world lives for thousands of years.

I don't think Putin will be impressed by your words. Help Ukraine by real actions, not by bla-bla-bla, then we'll see

Belvis, why do you think Moscow and the rebels are afraid to have international monitors at elections?

You have demonstrated that you're fed with propaganda. Will you provide direct links where rebels or Moscow resist to  international monitors at elections? Try to find it, then you'll be able to judge with some level of competence, and not repeat what talking heads are trying to fill you. OK, give you info for consideration:
1. Minsk agreement-2 stipulates monitoring of elections by OSCE.
2. Rebels invited the international monitors at local elections at Donbass in November, 2014. Ukraine threatened to announce them persona non-grata in Ukraine. Nevertheless some European deputies were there with unofficial visits.

[Belvis]

Belvis, first off, after Vova's recent performance at the Konstantin Palace in Piter, I now realize something that I missed in 2012. Do you remember his outdoor speech just after the 2012 elections when standing alongside Medvedev, he cried on stage. At that time, I thought the puffy face was from those tears. Now however, I understand that he is allergic to the botox. Either you should tell him, or I will broach the subject with Dr. Mironov. One of us should help Vova "save face" from all this stress.

You sound as  cosmetic surgeon, not as jornalist. I prefer to discuss the politics of presidents, not their pretty faces. Leave that for women

On to the Minsk-2 agreement on limited autonomy for the Donbas:
Crimea had autonomy. It had, until ousted in the middle of the night, a parliament and prime minister. Overnight it suddenly had a new, unelected, parliament and a new, unelected, prime minister who holds a Russian passport, but no Ukrainian citizenship. So, if Putin will so easily disregard Crimean autonomy, why should Kyiv trust the man on Donbas or "New Russia" autonomy?

OK, probably you have forgot the events. Since when Crimea get the new unelected parlament? It was the old parlament who elected new prime minister, Aksenov, in full accordance with Ukrainian law. The new prime minister was confirmed by legal in that time president, Yanukovich, again, as Ukrainian law required.  Would you please so kind to say what procedures were broken during these elections? And you have confused the prime minister Aksenov, who was a Ukrainian citizen, with another person. Be careful with propaganda 

Putin ignores the referendums to the Dagestani and Chechen people for independence

Could you refresh my memory and remind me about referendum to the Dagestani  people for independence?  I have missed this important event    May be you meant the referendum in Scotland?

By the way, you are wrong about the election procedures. I do not know if you wrote from ignorance, or from malice, but allow me to help further your understanding. The text of the Minsk-2 regarding elections reads:

 Article 4: On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine[/b] “On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” and also about the future of these districts based on the above mentioned law.

Article 9: Restore full control over the state border by Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfilment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.

And again:

Article 12: Based on the Law of Ukraine “On interim local self-government order in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions”, questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.

And I in my turn will  help you to understand what say the agreement.  Has been started
the dialogue on modalities of conducting local elections? I'm sure you know meaning of the word 'dialogue'. If you think Kiev will be able to settle peace at Donbass without participation of rebels you're deadly wrong. OK, may as Biily dreams US will send troops at Donbass, this would be the solution though ignites WWIII. Otherwise only negotiations and compromises are the only instrument to reach the solid peace there.

[mendeleyev]

Belvis, you know how to read. The agreement states that dialogues are to be conducted in accordance with Ukrainian law, and elections with OSCE monitors.


You have swallowed the propaganda on Crimea hook, line and sinker. Were it as simple as you say, Vova would not have need his little green men. Do you wish to deny that those armed men took over the parliament overnight?

In regards to referendums:

-  In June of last year Putin signed into law a measure on "extremism" that stipulates prison time for those who call for independence from Russia.

- In August 2014, the Kremlin quashed requests for a pro-independence march by Siberian organizers.

- As to Dagestan, how many independence movements do you wish to include? The last serious one, put down forcefully by Moscow, was 1999. However, if you wish we can go back some 200 years.

- Will Putin consent to the Chechen referendums for independence, or does he just pick and choose the ones he likes?

[Belvis]

Belvis, you know how to read. The agreement states that dialogues are to be conducted in accordance with Ukrainian law, and elections with OSCE monitors.

Do I understand right that you reject the dialogue with rebels? Then you reject Minsk-2 agreement. OSCE monitors are welcome, and I'm sure they will be present unless ignore the elections out of political considerations, as happened in November, 2014.

Do you wish to deny that those armed men took over the parliament overnight?

Only because Tatar mezhdlis stormed the Crimean parliament days before. Do you wish to deny that Kiev tried to block the parliament work with hands of Tatar radicals? And as far as I know nobody says that armed men voted for new prime minister, or   forced deputies to vote. Read good interview of insider about how things were developing (in Russian): http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/characters/2015/03/16/esli-eto-imelo-opredelennuyu-rezhissuru---rezhisseru-nuzhno-postavit-pyat-s-plyusom

- Will Putin consent to the Chechen referendums for independence, or does he just pick and choose the ones he likes?

When Chechens will hold referendum  for independence, then we'll know about Putin's consent. Let's discuss the real events and not speculate about what could happen.

[lordtiberius]

Hey Belvis, did you fill out a loan application to buy buy vodka?

[BillyB]

1. Minsk agreement-2 stipulates monitoring of elections by OSCE.
2. Rebels invited the international monitors at local elections at Donbass in November, 2014. Ukraine threatened to announce them persona non-grata in Ukraine. Nevertheless some European deputies were there with unofficial visits.

You think it's no different if Ukraine grants autonomy before or after elections? Then why not hold elections before autonomy? Maybe because if the rebels don't have total control of the land, control of the freedom of monitors, and control on how many monitors are allowed on the land, they will lose the election. Rebels have control of some borders and international observers have complained about their limitations of where they are allowed to go and see.

[lordtiberius]

That phrase according to Ukrainian law is big enough to drive a mack truck through.  If Russia is so strong and invincible, why not just annex the stolen territory?

[Belvis]

You think it's no different if Ukraine grants autonomy before or after elections? Then why not hold elections before autonomy? Maybe because if the rebels don't have total control of the land, control of the freedom of monitors, and control on how many monitors are allowed on the land, they will lose the election. Rebels have control of some borders and international observers have complained about their limitations of where they are allowed to go and see.

According to Minsk-2 Ukraine must legitimize autonomy by changing the Constitution after elections. Right now it's temporary provision to hold elections in peace. Rebels will keep control of their land and borders at any case, and can yield only after military defeat or  voluntarily if see economical benefits of being part of  Ukraine. The last is possible when rebels feel secured after their status will be consolidated in Constitution.

[Boethius]

No, not autonomy, decentralization.  Here is what the agreement stipulates -

Conducting constitutional reform in Ukraine, with the new constitution coming into force by the end of 2015, providing for decentralization as a key element (taking into account the characteristics of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, agreed with representatives of these areas), as well as the adoption of the permanent legislation on the special status of individual areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in accordance with the measures specified in Note [1], until the end of 2015. (See Notes)
Read more on UNIAN

http://www.unian.info/politics/1043394-minsk-agreement-full-text-in-english.html

[Boethius]

BTW Belvis, 50% of Donbas residents wish to remain part of Ukraine, 20% want to be part of the "DNR", and 15% want Donbas to be incorporated into Russia.


http://dif.org.ua/ua/polls/2014_polls/obshestvennavjansk.htm

[lordtiberius]

Another fake election just like Putin's 2012 and his 2000 election with apartment bombings.



Pathetic

[Boethius]

When you can't even get a plurality of residents to agree to the leadership's demands in the stronghold of decentralization, clearly, there is no great desire to "fight the fascists".  Remember, this poll is among those who stayed, not all the refugees in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, etc.

[Belvis]

No, not autonomy, decentralization.  Here is what the agreement stipulates -

OK, decentralization. Though I'd like to know how to call a state formation with own army (called militia), own police and own foreign policy (towards Russia) 

BTW Belvis, 50% of Donbas residents wish to remain part of Ukraine, 20% want to be part of the "DNR", and 15% want Donbas to be incorporated into Russia.

First, to be more accurate, not Donbas residents but residents of Donbass territory under Ukrainian administration. Second, all main players including Russia want Donbass to be part of Ukraine under some conditions. It's not easy to convince 35%, many of them with guns, to stay in Ukraine even as autonomy (OK, decentralization )

[HoundDaddyLee]

Belvis, first off, after Vova's recent performance at the Konstantin Palace in Piter, I now realize something that I missed in 2012. Do you remember his outdoor speech just after the 2012 elections when standing alongside Medvedev, he cried on stage. At that time, I thought the puffy face was from those tears. Now however, I understand that he is allergic to the botox. Either you should tell him, or I will broach the subject with Dr. Mironov. One of us should help Vova "save face" from all this stress.

On to the Minsk-2 agreement on limited autonomy for the Donbas:

Crimea had autonomy. It had, until ousted in the middle of the night, a parliament and prime minister. Overnight it suddenly had a new, unelected, parliament and a new, unelected, prime minister who holds a Russian passport, but no Ukrainian citizenship. So, if Putin will so easily disregard Crimean autonomy, why should Kyiv trust the man on Donbas or "New Russia" autonomy?

If you want to know who are the fascists, just ask the Tatars.

Why is Putin afraid of having honest folk run the elections? Putin has shown his real character in regards to his new admission that he lied about his troops setting up the annexation, oh excuse me, the Kremlin's politically correct term is now "reunification" of Crimea. You know in your heart that the 2010 elections were a sham, the Crimean voting was a sham election, and the Donbas referendums were a sham. What is Vova afraid of this time?

Putin ignores the referendums to the Dagestani and Chechen people for independence, so if the coal miners of Eastern Ukraine voted against his wishes, would be accept and recognize that? Or, are these elections just for show and in reality, totally meaningless?

By the way, you are wrong about the election procedures. I do not know if you wrote from ignorance, or from malice, but allow me to help further your understanding. The text of the Minsk-2 regarding elections reads:

 Article 4: On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine “On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts,” and also about the future of these districts based on the above mentioned law.

Article 9: Restore full control over the state border by Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfilment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.

And again:

Article 12: Based on the Law of Ukraine “On interim local self-government order in certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions”, questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of certain areas of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.


Oh, and just a couple more little housekeeping notes:

We need to talk about borders, and recently taken territory. Because...

Article 4b: Within 30 days of the signing of the declaration, Ukraine's parliament must adopt a law identifying the territory which falls under the terms of the temporary status of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The territory should be based on the demarcation line established in the 19 September 2014 Minsk memorandum.

We should also mention the agreement on weapons withdrawal. Because...

Maybe Vova was just tired after struggling with Luka for that chair. Or, perhaps his eyes were puffy from the botox allergy. Maybe, he is ignorant of his own military hardware? Your Vova signed the Minsk agreement which states:

Article 2. The withdrawal of all heavy weapons by both parties at equal distances in order to create at least a 50 kilometer security zone for 100mm or larger caliber artillery systems, a 70 kilometer security zone for Grad multiple rocket launcher systems and a 140 kilometer security zone for the MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, and Smerch multiple rocket launcher systems and Tochka (Tochka-U) tactical missile systems.

Belvis, are you a weapons specialist? I am not, but do know that the Tornado S is exclusively Russian. It has never been shared with, or exported to, other countries. The more common version, 9A, was put into service in 2008 and the latest version, the G series, in 2014. The only trained operators are contract troops, professionals, in the Russian ground forces.

If Vova has no boys in Ukraine, what happened? Did some vacationing single young males think it cool to take a deadly rocket launching system on holiday? Did they steal it, and then sell it to coal miners who suddenly evolved from shoveling black rocks to operating sophisticated rocket equipment? Or, is your president being misled by his generals? Maybe, and here is a thought, he has been caught in another fib?!


To Billy's point above, Putin has claimed, time after time, that he has no skin in the game. His troops are not there, his equipment is not there, and he has no control over what the rebels do, because they are not his rebels. Yet, he signed a document that dictated the terms of their peace, and has committed to the withdraw of their military forces. Fascinating!

+1
This is brilliantly written Mendy. It is too bad we can't have Putin and Obama meet on the field of battle to settle this tragedy. But I fear Putin will push this until non-Ukrainian blood is shed. Then it will be more than a proxy war...


Thank you for your words.
HDL

[Muzh]

He has a lot of interesting things to say but he is an academic elitist who hates fellow Americans even those that agree with him.  Kinda dumb in that way

To you, anyone who has a higher education degree than yours (i.e, GED) is nothing but an elitist who hates America.


So what's new besides phi over lambda?