Between Russia and the European Union

[Photo Guy]

Yes- Ukraine
But I'd like to focus for a moment on Belarus and Lukashenko.
Recent article:
'..Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko urged the U.S. to play a bigger role in the Ukrainian peace process and said a lasting solution will be impossible without its help...'

I had to smile when I read that. What is going on with Lukashenko? He's certainly not as close to Putin as Yanukovych was (or is). Lukas has a reputation as Europe's 'dictator' and now in the context of Putin's extremism, comes across as more moderate, and a little bit fearful of his Big Brother to the east. Also:
   '...Lukashenko has repeatedly expressed readiness to protect the independence of his country,..' -from the same article, reminds us that he has shown some solidarity with the new government in Kyiv.
   I'd really like to listen in on his conversations with Putin. I'm sure Putin isn't happy with his public statements. What do you all think of Lukas? Would Lukashenko balk at the idea of UN peacekeepers in Ukaine? Could Obama step up to the challenge and play a leadership role in Ukraine? Obama looks destined to play the ineffectual passive non-leader. Weak.
article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-31/belarus-leader-urges-u-s-involvement-in-ukraine-peace-process

[mendeleyev]

Lukashenko is attempting to shed that dictator image, at least for Western consumption. Belarus can benefit economically if the West views him as a go-between while Russia and the rest of the world are at odds.

General observations:

- Russia and Belarus are officially a "union state" and they have been in the process of slowly "merging" for a number of years. There is an annual joint Assembly/Parliament, and it met recently, as it does every year. Lukashenko is currently the president of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, a position which rotates between the two entities.

- Both Putin and Lukashenko have slowed down the pace of the "merger" as each has lost trust in the other. Early on, Luka made noises about eventually becoming the president once fully joined--that did not sit well with Putin. Putin has recently called into question the statehood of both Belarus and Kazakhstan, his two closest Eurasian Union trading bloc partners. That does not sit well with Lukashenko.

- A couple years ago, after a CIS meeting in Moscow, Putin gave Lukashenko a tour of the almost completed new underground crisis and military command and control centre. This was important to both men as under terms of the Eurasian Union, Moscow will ultimately control military and certain policing functions for the entire bloc.  At the time, Lukashenko was engaged and very interested in the centre. Last year, however, was a very different story. The centre completed, and this time with Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbayev in tow, Putin showed off the completed centre. While Nazarbayev sat next to Putin at one of the control panels, Lukashenko curiously not only looked uncomfortable, but set in one of the many empty seats several rows back, obviously unengaged in the process. That seemed to irritate Putin, but both left it simmering under the surface.

Given tensions of this past year, with Putin's comments about the statehood of Kazakhstan, and with his accusation that both Belarus and Kazakhstan are allowing banned goods across the borders into Russia, relations between Nazarbayev and Putin are strained. It hasn't helped that both Lukashenko and Nazarbayev have condemned the annexation of Crimea as illegal.

None of the three men are champions of freedom. Nazarbayev is a "president for life" and appears to be grooming a son to step into his shoes although constitutionally the Chairman of the Parliament is supposed to assume the position were something to happen to Nazarbayev (who is undergoing treatments in Germany for cancer). His photos are everywhere in public and there is no viable opposition. He has been the only president since Kazakhstan broke from the CCCP in 1990.

Election officials claim that he won 95% of the Kazakh vote in 2011, but even he would tell you that presidential elections in his country are simply a formality, meant to give the people the feeling that they are connected to his administration. He stands for re-election this year, likely running unopposed. On the bright side, even with massive corruption, the nation has grown economically.

In Belarus:

Lukashenko has also ruled for a long time, although in his first election (1994) he ran as an alternative to the Communist dictatorship. Lukashenko serves five year terms, and there is no limit to the number of terms he may serve.

Belarus has a curious parliamentary system in which legislators seldom introduce bills. Instead, those are introduced by his administration, voted on by the parliament, and then signed into law. He has unlimited veto power over both legislative bodies, the House of Representatives and Senate. For the most part, private enterprise is illegal in Belarus (with some exceptions), the press is strictly controlled, and the state is the nation's main employer.

Leading up to the 2010 presidential election, there were massive street demonstrations against his government. So, he calmed the crowds by declaring the opposition to be legal, and even provided state funding so that opposition leaders could campaign. He even allowed and funded debates among the opposition candidates (but he did not participate). After the election, in which Luka won a commanding victory according to his Election Commission, the leading opposition candidates were rounded up and thrown into prison. There will be elections again this coming autumn, and the leading opposition figure, Mikalai Statkevich, is still in prison.

Belorussians enjoy few freedoms taken for granted in the West, although many have resigned themselves to the status quo, in the name of "stability" for now. Who will someday rule Belarus? Supposedly, his nine year old son Kolya (short for Nikolas) is in "training" for the job. Kolya travels everywhere, even to diplomatic meetings, with his father. In the 2010 elections, live on state television, Kolya cast a ballot for his father in the presidential election. Needless to say, he is the only nine year old kid in Belarus with the right to vote.

Putin is famous for including his favourite dog, Koni, in diplomatic settings and meetings. A few years back, Luka traveled, with Kolya at this side, to meet with Putin in regards to the financial bailout that Belarus needed at the time. They met at the presidential residence outside Moscow. Putin, always fashionably late for meetings, strolled into the room and upon seeing Kolya looked at Luka and asked, "Why the kid?" Luka pointed at Koni and retorted, "Why the dog?"

As to his aspirations for his sons, Luka has contradicted himself at times. As of late he brushes aside questions about Kolya's future as a president of Belarus. He is, however, the same man who has declared that "Kolya belongs to politics. That is his destiny as a presidential child.” In official state celebrations and military parades, Belarus Generals and officers are required to salute Kolya, and his father. At a 2012 meeting in Venezuela with Hugo Chavez, Lukashenko introduced Kolya to Chavez with this line: "In 20 to 25 years there will be someone to take over the reins of this operation." Lukashenko has two older boys, one works as presidential adviser for state security, and the other is a director of state sports programmes.

Among the oddities: By presidential decree, it is illegal to clap hands in public. After the elections were obviously rigged in 2010, citizens marched in the streets with banners and shouted slogans. Thus, marches, banners, and political slogans were banned, punishable with prison sentences--and they made examples of enough so that others would take notice. Citizens then organized marches using social media, but without banners or slogans. More arrests and prison sentences followed.

Undeterred for the moment, the protests were followed by smaller groups of people who walked around in public, clapping their hands as a form of non-verbal protest. Lukashenko declared that clapping in public would be illegal. More arrests, more prison sentences followed, and today there are few who would dare to clap in public (concerts, theatre performances, etc, are exempted).

Article 79 of the Belarus Constitution prohibits the media, or any citizen, from disrespecting the president and the dignity of the office. As you can image, journalism is suppressed heavily under Lukashenko.

Bottom line: The West, and Europe in particular, have levied sanctions against Lakashenko for several years. He cannot travel to many places in the West, and being a man who possesses a very big ego, he feels slighted. Therefore, he is in the midst of changing his image. And it is about time, because he may need the West's help if Putin continues to make noises about absorbing Belarus into Russia--and scuttling the "Union State" status between the two nations.

 

[mendeleyev]

'..Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko urged the U.S. to play a bigger role in the Ukrainian peace process and said a lasting solution will be impossible without its help...'

'...Lukashenko has repeatedly expressed readiness to protect the independence of his country,..' -from the same article, reminds us that he has shown some solidarity with the new government in Kyiv.

I'd really like to listen in on his conversations with Putin. I'm sure Putin isn't happy with his public statements. What do you all think of Lukas? Would Lukashenko balk at the idea of UN peacekeepers in Ukaine? Could Obama step up to the challenge and play a leadership role in Ukraine? Obama looks destined to play the ineffectual passive non-leader. Weak.

PhotoGuy, you are pretty much right on everything that you've stated.

While at one time Putin and Luka were very close, and much closer than Yanukovich whom Putin has always loathed but tolerated as better than any alternative, their relationship is now strained.

The Belarus opposition is even more divided that the withering Russian opposition, and the two main camps in Belarus as the pro-Russians versus the anti-Russian opposition blocs. Being that divided, Luka will have no problem remaining in office for a long time--unless the big brother next door makes a move.

Luka is hoping that UN peacekeepers would stop Putin's aggression in the East because he knows that if left unchecked, after Ukraine it could be that Belarus would be next on the list. If the UN were to wake up from its stupor and take interest in the idea, Putin would move quickly to grab the remaining Black Sea areas of Ukraine in order to freeze his gains before the UN could arrive. I cannot stress enough how important those areas, as in Odessa to Mariupol, are to Moscow's long-term strategy.

This map from the Black Sea Development Bank, shows which nations share in control of exploration and resources of that area. One does not need to be a brain surgen to see why Putin would benefit were he to control the region from Georgia to the south, and then from Ukraine to Moldova in the west. The Black Sea is controlled, by treaty, by countries who share access through the BSEC (Organization of the Black Sea Economic Cooperation). Control and claim to resources is vested by percentage of access.



Russia would love to shove Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova off that map. The Black Sea is about the size of California and not only are pipelines carrying Russian oil in the seabeds, but there are vast resources to be gained from the sea herself. The Russians consider the Black Sea to be a vital buffer between themselves and NATO (Turkey, Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, Greece).

This map also illustrates why Putin will eventually absorb Abkhazia, although at this point that tiny disputed state would be a big strain on already tight Russian finances.

If something happens to the ailing, and more elderly Nazerbayev, and Kazakhstan is left dangling in the political winds internally, then Putin would be very interested in turning his attention more to the south. Kazakhstan is large, mostly unpopulated, Russian pipelines run across the country, and there is the international space launch facility in Kazakhstan (a Soviet left-over) that Russia would like to have back.

A sudden turn for the worse in Nazerbayev's health would give Lukashenko some breathing room while Putin consolidated Kazakhstan, but it would also represent the loss of an important ally for Belarus.

[mendeleyev]

No freeloaders here! Well, that is the headline on today's presidential website of the Republic of Belarus, a country located next to Russia. Often called the last dictatorship in Europe, president Aleksandr Lukashenko, who governs mainly by executive orders called "decrees," has decided that unemployment is a criminal offense.

The state is the main employer as many forms of private enterprise are also considered to be illegal, and the government owns most industry and farms with the exception of approved small business operations.





With exceptions for the elderly and disabled persons, the new law targets anyone who fails to work a regular job and thus paying taxes. Being unemployed for up to six months will entail fines, and unemployment over six months carries a prison sentence. Those who cannot afford to pay the fines will face jail time.

[SANDRO43]

Being unemployed for up to six months will entail fines, and unemployment over six months carries a prison sentence. Those who cannot afford to pay the fines will face jail time.

Which reminds me of the ludicrous situation in GB some 250 years ago when debtors were sentence to jail for an unspecified time, until they could repay their debts .

Does Belarus have a convenient place where they can dump them, like the Australia of yesteryear when the American colonies were no longer available ?

[mendeleyev]

 

New Zealand?

[Larry1]

Does Belarus have a convenient place where they can dump them, like the Australia of yesteryear when the American colonies were no longer available ?

Belarus might be experiencing shortages of many things these days, but I doubt prison space is one of those things.

[Anotherkiwi]

New Zealand?

Why pick on us?    However, if all the unemployed that Lukashenko wishes to send here are smokinghotkovas (of any age), then I'm sure we could make room! 

[BillyB]

Being unemployed for up to six months will entail fines, and unemployment over six months carries a prison sentence. Those who cannot afford to pay the fines will face jail time.

One will save money if they work for free instead of being unemployed and fined. If being unemployed for more than six months carries a prison sentence, at what point does the death penalty get applied?

[mendeleyev]

 No death penalty. Of course, one is safer in prison. In this part of the world, executions are usually done at night and crafted to look like random shootings or robbery.

[Muzh]

As Tensions With West Rise, Russia Increasingly Rattles Nuclear Saber


Bellicose rhetoric has soared since start of Ukraine conflict to rival Cold War levels

Amid the wave of bellicose rhetoric that has swelled in Moscow since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, officials as high up as President Vladimir Putin have been making open nuclear threats, a public saber-rattling with weapons of mass destruction largely unseen even in the days of the Cold War.


Remarks about Russia’s nuclear strength play well to Mr. Putin’s domestic constituency, hungry for a restoration of lost military might.


They also come at a time when Russia has grown more reliant on nuclear weapons, as the imbalance with Western conventional forces has widened. During the Cold War, Warsaw Pact conventional forces outnumbered NATO’s in Europe, leading the West to depend heavily on its nuclear arsenal as a deterrent.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/as-tensions-with-west-rise-russia-increasingly-rattles-nuclear-saber-1428249620