The future of Russia

[mendeleyev]

Perhaps one of the most important interviews with Mikhail Khodorkovsky on the eventual fall of Vladimir Putin, and then the future of Russia can be found here: http://meduza.io/en/feature/2015/05/06/i-m-not-trying-to-climb-to-the-top

[mendeleyev]

Update on my personal future with Russia: In December I was told to be ready to leave, that my credentials with the Russian Foreign Ministry would not likely be renewed. We continued to work quietly behind the scenes.

Those efforts seem to have paid off, as based on a conversation Friday, I was told that approval for another 3 years has been granted. As we have not yet received the official notification, no champagne corks will pop until the paperwork arrives.

[Larry1]

Our fingers are crossed for you.
St. George's crossed.

[lordtiberius]

Who runs Moscow?  The FSB or the Chechens?

[mendeleyev]

LT, read the article.

[lordtiberius]

I read the article.  I am not a fan of Khordokovsky.  I am glad he is free, but he isn't a democrat like Navalny or Pavel Durov.  He did confirm a conflict between the FSB and the Chechens and the game of thrones with the 2 antagonists and possibly a third forces the Black Hundreds.  I agree I don't see Girkin or Rogozin taking over.

Russia has no natural borders so my preferred method of dealing with an adversary - partition will be tricky if not impossible.  He confirmed that the Mad King is dying and maybe already dead and that sucesssion in a post Putin Russia is on the minds but not the lips of the Ruskies.

Interesting times.

[mendeleyev]

Mr. Botox is not yet dead, at least in the physical sense.

As with Mikhail, I think that Russia's shirtless leader will be around for several more years. That will take a sad toll on Russia before it comes to a likely ugly close.

He does seem to be looking for a way out of the Ukrainian mess because it hasn't gone as he planned and the death toll of Russian boys is catching up with him. Ukraine, sooner or later, may very well be his downfall.

The greater damage is the lasting effect of propaganda lies. He has stirred up a mindless brand of fascist/nationalism that will hurt Russia long after he is rotting in some patch of dirt.

In the past couple of weeks I have been involved in a debate with editors of "Inside Russia," a pure propaganda tool masquerading as a legitimate publication. In one exchange, I reminded two editors in particular of the Budapest agreement.

Their argument came straight from talking points: Supposedly that agreement was a farce and illegal treaty. Why? First, because Ukraine is in their minds a part of Russia, and therefore has no sovereign borders to respect, and the Russian leaders who signed the treaty did so without approval of the Russian people. The second reason is that in the talking points, the Nukes did not belong to Ukraine anyway, they belonged to Russia.

I asked why the Ukrainian nukes belonged to Russia? Answer: They belonged to the Soviet Union, and the Soviet Union belonged to Russia. All the other republics were simply vassals of Mother Russia, and therefore they had no right to separate and break up the CCCP. That is straight from the Kremlin's concept of "Русский Мир" which you, LT, know translates to "Russian World."

The other fascist argument from the Kremlin talking points is that Ukraine has historically always been a part of Russia. That is either a lie, or just stupidity, and so I laughted long enough to make them embarrassed before asking where was "Russia" when the Kievan Rus ruled that part of the world. Unbelievably, they sputtered and stammered, and likely peed in their panties (both males), but could not come up with a coherent reply.

Followers like those are actually dangerous because at first glance they come across as intelligent and professional. In reality, they are sheeple of the lowest class of retardation. It is this generation that, as Mikhail spoke of in the article, may usher in an even more draconian regime after the Botox treatments wear off. Those who work for democracy may find it necessary to be patient for a long time.

[lordtiberius]

Any truth to this?

http://youtu.be/5f_4g_HJ-7M

[Boethius]

From Russian journalist Oleg Kashin -

When Putin came to the top, to construct his regime of personal power, he could not not to rely on the war myth. The myth of a tough but fair leader relied on the myth of the war, and, as Putin’s regime grew, both grew together. Russia is Putin. Russia is the Victory of 1945. From these two equations we obtain a new equation: Putin now is the Victory of 1945.
The May 9 parade in Moscow is not a parade to the memory of victims and heroes of the war, this is a parade of loyalty to Putin and his government. St. George’s black and orange ribbon, officially symbolizing that memory has now become a sign of the loyalty also. With this ribbon, pro-Russian separatists are fighting in Ukraine. It is important to them to feel as they were the heirs of the soldiers of the Second World War, opposing not the modern Ukraine, but the evil of 1941-45 that their grandparents fought against. The Western version of the war, whether it is the Holocaust or the division of Europe, or even Turing’s calculations that cracked “Enigma” code – all of these annoy modern Russian society, Russian society which has already agreed to include into the number of their enemies from 1945 all those considered to be enemies of the current Russian state including Ukraine, Georgia, and America. Vladimir Putin’s historical experiment has destroyed the memory, it replaced it with a trivial political design. This design will be short-lived. It will end with the end of Vladimir Putin’s power, and then Russian society will have to re-formulate its attitude to World War II again.

http://kashin.guru/2015/05/07/9may/




Pretty accurate (in terms of the Western role in WWII), at least, if one reads the posts on this forum.

[lordtiberius]

Here is a question.  There are a lot of smart people on Russia who have been to Russia who love Russia and the Russians.  Why did the Obama Administration engage in the failed Reset policy when they had the diplomatic cables from the State Department describing Russia as a Mafia state?  The State Department is not exactly the John Birch or Lyndon LaRouche wing of the Republican party either and for them to describe it (accurately) as a Mafia state and to proceed forward, what did they think would happen?

[Boethius]

What could the State Department do to change it?  It is the internal politics of another country. 


The turning point was when the government sealed the communist era records.  It allowed all the scum of Soviet society to remain in control.  Same in Ukraine.  Of course, lots of the women from that society escaped by marrying Americans and becoming right wing patriots.

[lordtiberius]

So would you have advised going forward with the reset?  What could possibly be gained from negotiating with a mobster?

[jone]

I'll tell you something I believe:

The Russians have embarrassed the Obama administration at every opportunity since he took office.  From the Reset debacle, to the ousting of the US Ambassador to Russia, to the Syrian line in the sand.....

What an embarrassment to the US!  Instead of Canada 4 - Russia nothing, it is Russia 10 - US Zip.

[Photo Guy]

Jone, what you say is true. ...embarrassing.

Now let's talk about death and destruction. I think it's a more important topic. Let's talk about Ukraine's sovereignty, okay? Let's talk about Russians in Ukraine doing volunteer work. Let's talk about a neighborhood bully with weapons- heavy artillery. Obama is an embarrassment. Putin is a killer. Which is worse?

[Photo Guy]

Jone, does the future of Russia include a structural swallowing of Belarus? An overwhelming military inclusion? This would probably fit Putin's dream of a New Soviet state... Let's get inside Putin's head, but don't stay there long- It's a scary place.

[jone]

I am no longer a prognosticator in this mess.  I am extremely sad at the ongoing events in Russia and all of Eastern Europe.   But there are much smarter people than I am that have absolutely no clue as to Russia's intentions. 

I found, in Russia, two weeks ago, a Nation united over patriotism.  But that that patriotism is somewhat artificial, constructed of propaganda and a national mood based on aggression wrapped in a flag.  The infrastructure that was promised since 1991 still has not materialized.  I saw alcoholism (as an aside, when I was being driven to the airport at 6AM we saw a car that was overturned and the driver standing, weaving, by the side of the road, obviously drunk) in many public quarters.

To these people, the West is still the promised land and the best and the brightest migrate there.  This is a generational thing, in my mind.  Nothing will happen to improve life in Russia for at least a generation.  I posted an article on a separate thread this week indicating how much of Russia's wealth is held by very few individuals.   This is the definition of a Kleptocracy. 

Ultimately, it will take the displacement of these individuals and the redistribution of wealth back to the people before true growth can occur.  Until then, we will be part of Mr. Toad's Wild Ride until something catastrophic happens.

[lordtiberius]

What you say is true, but Russia is still the largest country in the world, still has natural resources and has nuclear weapons.  They have historically proved themselves to be a creative and resourceful people.  Russia before WWI was the fourth largest economy and the German General staff wanted war with Russia because by 1917 they would not be able to defeat Germany.

I know you are discouraged.  We all are.  But your insight is needed and valued.

[Manny]

a Nation united over patriotism.  But that that patriotism is somewhat artificial, constructed of propaganda and a national mood based on aggression wrapped in a flag. 

That sounds familiar.

[lordtiberius]

Anti-American pap

[Muzh]

That sounds familiar.

I hear your Nationalist party took a thrashing at the polls. 

[lordtiberius]

BNP or Ukip?

[Boethius]

An interesting analysis of various issues prepared by experts -

http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/field/field_document/20150605RussianChallengeGilesHansonLyneNixeySherrWood.pdf

[Larry1]

That's the title of this BBC piece in which the author interviews several Russians who aren't happy with the political situation in Russia. I think it's safe to say that these people are very much in the minority.

... as we sit over coffee, reminiscing about the Moscow of old, I'm suddenly reminded of the past as my friend looks around to make sure that nobody can hear.

"I've sent my family to live abroad," he tells me. "It's better that way. I've sold everything, and now I commute. The health service here is crumbling, and so are schools. Sanctions have started to bite, but it's not that - it's the political atmosphere. It's stifling and it's getting worse. Nobody knows what will happen next, but it doesn't feel like a good place for the liberals."

... Olya's fears grew as the troubles in Ukraine spiralled into conflict, causing blazing rows that split her family - and many others too. "Some believe America will use what's happening in Ukraine to attack Russia - and they say that we should attack first because that's the best defence," she tells me...

I'm reminded of those conversations when I hear President Putin respond to the corruption allegations against Fifa. He blames America for what he seems to see as politically motivated arrests aimed at taking the World Cup away from Russia in 2018.

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-32976294

Read the rest of the article if you are interested.

[southernX]

good article  , the future is possibly  scaring some russians

SX 
Russians looking for the exit
If Russia is alarming its neighbours with its actions in Ukraine and its anti-Western rhetoric, many of its own people are also uncomfortable with the prevailing atmosphere of bellicose nationalism. Some are preparing to leave, discovers the BBC's Caroline Wyatt, a former Moscow correspondent - and some have already left.

Moscow is at its loveliest in May, when the usually forbidding expanse of Red Square is bathed in sunshine, and the delicate scent of lilac fills the air around the crazy ice-cream spirals of St Basil's Cathedral. Tourists from across the Russian Federation take smiling family photographs in front of the church built to mark Ivan the Terrible's military conquests.

The rocket launchers and martial might on display to celebrate Victory Day in Europe have all gone. And instead of marching bands, the ethereal sounds of an Orthodox church choir fill the square, and visitors stop to listen. The only reminder that all is not quite as sunny as it seems is the shrine of flowers on the bridge, the fresh summer bunches left with handwritten notes - in memory of the Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, shot dead on this same spot just a few months ago.

I meet an old friend for coffee on the terrace of what was once the empty Soviet department store GUM. Now it's a temple to consumerism that wouldn't feel out of place in Paris, London or Milan. The shop windows bloom with pastel-coloured dresses from all the luxury brands. I can hardly conceal my surprise when the waiter wishes me a good day with a smile that even looks as though he means it.

 I hardly know this place, it feels so different. The streets are no longer pot-holed, nor choked with traffic. There's a new confidence visible in the way people walk. And despite Western sanctions over Ukraine, the supermarket shelves are still full, and the cafes too.

yet as we sit over coffee, reminiscing about the Moscow of old, I'm suddenly reminded of the past as my friend looks around to make sure that nobody can hear.

"I've sent my family to live abroad," he tells me. "It's better that way. I've sold everything, and now I commute. The health service here is crumbling, and so are schools. Sanctions have started to bite, but it's not that - it's the political atmosphere. It's stifling and it's getting worse. Nobody knows what will happen next, but it doesn't feel like a good place for the liberals."

I resist the temptation to make a joke, to lighten the mood... Liberals on the run, worries about the health service? Why, it sounds just like the UK. But my friend isn't laughing - and nor am I, as I remember his optimism about his country's future 15 long years ago. For this highly educated man to send his family abroad was not a step taken lightly.

Later, I meet Olya in a park, and we sit on a bench dappled by the early summer sunshine. It's warm, but getting muggier. The wisps of cloud carry the ominous grey tinge of an oncoming storm. Olya, too, has a sadness in her eyes as she talks about preparing to emigrate - if she can. She's also eminently well-qualified, another middle-class Muscovite with a decent job and good prospects. For Olya, it's not economic fears that make her want to leave, but a gathering sense of unease.

"I don't know if you in England know the story about the frog, who sits in a pan of warm water on the top of the stove. He's happy. And then someone lights the stove beneath, and gradually, the water gets hotter. The frog is happy, he's comfortable. But soon the water will boil - and he probably won't get out in time because he doesn't realise what's happening. I'm scared of being that frog - trapped in a boiling pot, unable to get out."


I love my country - but sometimes my country is hard to loveTanya

Olya's fears grew as the troubles in Ukraine spiralled into conflict, causing blazing rows that split her family - and many others too. "Some believe America will use what's happening in Ukraine to attack Russia - and they say that we should attack first because that's the best defence," she tells me.

"All I want is to find a place on earth where everyone knows the law and abides by it, and where there isn't corruption. I'm so sick of it. And I'm tired of arguing about Ukraine. What's happening there is insane, and it's terrifying that it could lead to a full-scale war. All I want is a small patch of land where there's peace and quiet."

I'm reminded of those conversations when I hear President Putin respond to the corruption allegations against Fifa. He blames America for what he seems to see as politically motivated arrests aimed at taking the World Cup away from Russia in 2018.

I ask another friend, Tanya, what she makes of it all. "That bellicose form of patriotism is everywhere in Russia today," she says, speaking softly as she drags deeply on her cigarette.

"You hear it all the time on the news. Everything is interpreted as being aimed against Russia. It's absurd. Americans don't spend their lives scheming against us, but the authorities here think and talk as though they do. And many believe it. The rhetoric today is like something from another era - the Soviet era. I feel as though we're asked every day to make a choice between being true patriots or leaving Russia.

"I'm not leaving. I'm Russian and I love my country. But sometimes my country is hard to love."

Tanya and her husband are putting money aside for their daughters so in a few years time the girls can travel and perhaps study abroad.

"If our borders are still open then," adds Tanya, with a sigh. "I remember the Soviet Union - we were trapped and we couldn't escape. That's how I grew up. I just hope it doesn't happen again."

http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-32976294

[JayH]

Putin is busy repeating his inane ideas--it actually shows how deluded he is--or the extent he is prepared to lie.
For Ukraine to create it's future--it has to rid itself of Russia as it is today.
For Russia to have a future--it has to rid itself of the people in control now-- and get the general population to understand there is not a  future in looking wistfully backwards.


Putin is sure that Ukrainian and Russian - one people



Russian President Vladimir Putin believes that Russia and Ukraine "doomed" in the common future.
He stated this at a plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, reports RIA Novosti .
"Whatever happens, eventually, Russia and Ukraine, somehow doomed to a common future," - said Putin.
According to him, with all the complexities of today's "Russian and Ukrainian - one people, one ethnic group, anyway," with its originality, cultural characteristics, with a common history, culture and spiritual roots.
"We initially came out and believe that Ukraine has the right to choose their own - and civilization, and political and economic, to whatever" - he said.

http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2015/06/19/7071796/