The Russian/Syrian connection thread

[BillyB]

Actually, Assad will not be in good shape for the upcoming negotiations since he will not have the capo backing him up.

I think the negotiations are probably done. Obama and Kerry has backed off the "Assad has to go" strategy. Russia had all the leverage in the negotiations so it's not a big surprise. This ceasefire allows Russia to take a break and catch up on some maintenance and rotate fresh troops in. Faster than they may leave Syria, they can come back. Russia is also trying to look like it's cooperating so they can get the sanctions lifted over Ukraine. The vote for these sanctions are up for renewal in a few months and there's already a small group of EU countries voicing they want to lift the sanctions. Putin needs more supporters though.

[southernX]

I think the negotiations are probably done. Obama and Kerry has backed off the "Assad has to go" strategy. Russia had all the leverage in the negotiations so it's not a big surprise. This ceasefire allows Russia to take a break and catch up on some maintenance and rotate fresh troops in. Faster than they may leave Syria, they can come back. Russia is also trying to look like it's cooperating so they can get the sanctions lifted over Ukraine. The vote for these sanctions are up for renewal in a few months and there's already a small group of EU countries voicing they want to lift the sanctions. Putin needs more supporters though.

agree billy ,

putin is a man of action , his words mean little very often imo
let us observe what he does over the next month or so ,

he has withdrawn little yet , significantly he has left his air defence missiles in syria ,

it is very easy for him to move forces back and forth , similar strategy to that which he has used in the donbass during the minsk  process

imo he has no intention of abandoning syria or the military bases and leverage he has recently strengthened there

SX

[BillyB]

he has withdrawn little yet , significantly he has left his air defence missiles in syria ,

Their best air defense, the S-400. It's so good Russia won't even sell it to Iran who could leak out the technology to others including us. So to protect this state of the art equipment, a significant amount of troops must be left in Syria. The rebels and ISIS do not have fighter jets to bring down. The excuse is it's there to shoot down Turkish jets should they shoot down another Russian jet is not valid. Russia can use it's own jets to bring down a Turkish jet. The S-400 was brought to Syria because it works with in conjunction with their most advanced radar. With around 14 nations flying in Syria, Russia's radar can learn what's in the air at any given time since everybody has to notify Russia where they're flying so they don't risk getting shot down. America has given the best stealth fighter in the world the F-22 combat time in Syria. Overkill for such an advanced jet to bomb terrorists and Assad's troops. Although stealth, it does have a radar signature about the size of a bumblebee. Russia can learn that signature and the signature of every other NATO jet and use it to their benefit should things get crazy in the future. I hope America was smart enough to ground the F-22 and F-35 when Russia brought in the S-400.

[Muzh]

agree billy ,

putin is a man of action , his words mean little very often imo

SX

Also, he is strong as bull, almost as smart.

[mendeleyev]

He wants to achieve these goals:

- Lifting of Western sanctions against Russia.

- Agreement that Russia must be given a sphere of influence in neighboring former republics. Those include Ukraine, Georgia, and eventually the Baltic states.

- Acceptance of his annexation of Crimea.


As a member of the UN group in the Syrian negotiations, by announcing the pull-out, it gives the appearance to the West that he is no longer a part of the problem, and instead can be trusted to be a part of the solution. That, of course, is debatable.

As to any idea that he can afford to continue the fighting in Syria, not really. The Russian budget is in crisis and in the big scheme of things, he cannot financially continue to fighting a war indefinitely on two fronts. By the way, Ukraine and Syria are part of the same war in the Kremlin scheme.

Russian fighting in Syria has given him to more openly train and hone troops and weapons systems for eventual use in the theatre closer to home. Those big new bases being built along the Ukrainian border are there for a reason.

The indiscriminate bombing of Syrian communities and civilians has not only created a very convenient refugee crisis to weaken Europe, but it has sent a clear message to Kyiv, and those in the West who support Ukraine, about what will happen if the Ukrainian desire to be independent of Russia is not nipped in the bud, so to speak. He has played a clear hand to open the way to force the West to accept his "final solution" of the Ukrainian question, and unfortunately the West is tired and will eventually look the other way.

The slow but clear signs of a growing resurrection to opposition of his rule will force his hand. He cannot fix the economy without $70 per barrel for oil, so he will use military adventurism close to home as a distraction to quiet any ideas of revolt at home.

[jone]

Anyone who saw House of Cards, Season 4, will remark that Terror at home is used as a means to insure a quiet electorate.  When I was last in Russia, they were showing the beheadings of people on TV.  A sure means of terrorism in the world and that (implied) idea that Russia is a bastion against terrorism.

[BillyB]

As to any idea that he can afford to continue the fighting in Syria, not really. The Russian budget is in crisis and in the big scheme of things, he cannot financially continue to fighting a war indefinitely on two fronts.

America made a lot of money bailing other nations out. Putin understands this and Syria will be paying the bill. It's another reason Assad or similar will have to be president of Syria for a long time coming. A western backed leader will try to get out from repaying Russia for their services.

[2tallbill]

Iran to build a statue of captured US sailors

read all about it here
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iran/12197979/Iran-to-build-a-statue-of-captured-US-sailors.html

[BillyB]

Putin and Kerry meet over Syria and Putin jokes if Kerry's briefcase is full of money to haggle over key matters.


http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/putin-john-kerry-luggage-joke-221206

[2tallbill]

As to any idea that he can afford to continue the fighting in Syria, not really. The Russian budget is in crisis and in the big scheme of things, he cannot financially continue to fighting a war indefinitely on two fronts. By the way, Ukraine and Syria are part of the same war in the Kremlin scheme.

Do you think that Assad is at least partly paying for Russia to come in and save
the day? Getting back his oil and other facilities must be worth something.

[mendeleyev]

You bring up a good point, Bill. The Russian budget is in crisis, but if oil continues to rise it would make more sense. Is Assad paying? One way or the other, for certain.

[Muzh]

Do you think that Assad is at least partly paying for Russia to come in and save
the day? Getting back his oil and other facilities must be worth something.

Paying? Did you say paying? (With apologies to that NFL commercial)


http://www.wsj.com/articles/syria-defies-russia-in-bid-to-keep-assad-1460332538?cb=logged0.30049921613464536

[Gator]

Paying? Did you say paying? (With apologies to that NFL commercial)


http://www.wsj.com/articles/syria-defies-russia-in-bid-to-keep-assad-1460332538?cb=logged0.30049921613464536

NFL or NBA?

Jim Mora of the NBA:  "Playoffs?!   Don't talk about playoffs.  Playoffs?!" 
(at the 100 mark)

Allen Iverson of the NBA:  " Practice!  We are talking about practice!  Not a game   What are talking about?  Practice!"  (15.5 times in just over one minute).   

[BillyB]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/syria-defies-russia-in-bid-to-keep-assad-1460332538?cb=logged0.30049921613464536

Syria defies Russia in bid to keep Assad. Funny article. Ever notice how every Moscow brokered ceasefire never seems to work? Putin worked hard to sue for peace and look cooperative to the international community by showing his willingness to have Assad go and nobody will listen to him. Not the rebels in Ukraine and not Assad. Don't fool yourselves folks. Russia went into Syria to keep Assad in power.

[sleepycat]

Oh dear! Another one of huilo's aircraft fell out of the sky in Syria...

http://www.yahoo.com/news/two-russian-military-pilots-killed-syria-helicopter-crash-082803303.html

 

[Muzh]

NFL or NBA?

Jim Mora of the NBA:  "Playoffs?!   Don't talk about playoffs.  Playoffs?!" 
 (at the 100 mark)

Allen Iverson of the NBA:  " Practice!  We are talking about practice!  Not a game   What are talking about?  Practice!"  (15.5 times in just over one minute).   

Jim Mora was the Indianapolis Colts coach of the NFL on that video. 

[Gator]

Jim Mora was the Indianapolis Colts coach of the NFL on that video. 

I don't know why I wrote NBA for Mora instead of NFL.  I am a sports fan, and I know this shit. 

[mendeleyev]

Whoa Muzh and Gator, you mean the Baltimore Colts, right?

Next thing you'll be telling me that the Chicago Cardinals have moved out of St Louis, or that the Cleveland Rams moved to Los Angeles and then St Louis and then back to LA, or the Boston Redskins moved to DC. Somebody even told me that the Los Angeles Chargers now play in San Diego, but I think it is only a rumour.

At least when I visit Houston in the future I'll be able to enjoy an Oilers game. Whew!

[jone]

You forgot Anaheim with the Rams.

[mendeleyev]

Dang, when did that tragedy happen? 

[jone]

In between Los Angeles and St. Louis.

[fathertime]

Hmmmm....well 250 isn't very many...although i'm presuming they are uninvited, it could be worse.. as long as they aren't actually there to undermine or try to take out Assad....


Up to 250 US military personnel headed to Syria, Obama administration officials say



ERZEN, Germany –  President Barack Obama will send an additional 250 military personnel to Syria to help local forces fighting the Islamic State group, increasing to 300 the number of U.S. forces battling extremists in the war-torn country, administration officials confirmed Sunday.

Obama was expected to announce his decision Monday during a speech in Hannover, Germany, at the close of a weeklong trip, where IS was a focus of his meetings with world leaders in Saudi Arabia, Great Britain and Germany.

The move will significantly increase the U.S. presence in Syria......

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/24/up-to-250-us-military-personnel-headed-to-syria-obama-administration-officials-say.html?intcmp=hplnws






Fathertime! 

[BillyB]

Hmmmm....well 250 isn't very many...although i'm presuming they are uninvited, it could be worse.. as long as they aren't actually there to undermine or try to take out Assad....

Too little too late but I'm sure Obama got permission from Putin to allow our troops to fight ISIS. The ceasefire is only between the rebels and Assad's forces but everybody is still allowed to target ISIS. 250 American soldiers aren't going to be able to take out ISIS but Obama wants to make a statement he is doing something about terrorism.

Obama and Europe had the power years ago to bomb a road for the rebels to Damascus like they did in Libya. Instead the country is ruined, 250,000 dead, 12 million displaced from their homes, and over a million refugees Europe has to deal with. Pay now or pay more later. Obama and Europe decided to pay more later.

[fathertime]

Obama and Europe had the power years ago to bomb a road for the rebels to Damascus like they did in Libya. Instead the country is ruined, 250,000 dead, 12 million displaced from their homes, and over a million refugees Europe has to deal with. Pay now or pay more later. Obama and Europe decided to pay more later.

I seriously doubt that other powerful nations like Russia would have merely stood by, and allowed us to run roughshod over Assad like that.  I think this conflict could have been headed off earlier by us not calling for Assad to step down, and arming/supporting forces against him....


I don't think we look back at Libya, and deem that to be the roadmap for future overseas military adventures.  Nor can we look at Iraq or pretty much any other of the recent Middle East debacles the last two presidents have dragged us into. 


Fathertime!   

[jone]

HEY,  FATHER TIME

IS THERE ANY ACTIONS THAT YOUR NATION HAS TAKEN IN OTHER COUNTRIES THAT YOU DO APPROVE OF?