The Death of the Current Russian Regime.......

[jone]

I found the following article to be quite credible.......

http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR_166_PUTINS_DOWNFALL.pdf

Here is a summary of the article:

Russia’s political regime is unsustainable. It has no capacity to reform, and faces growing economic woes, crumbling infrastructure, and  warring elites.

After widespread protests and ebbing of support, the government began in 2014 to base its legitimacy on winning wars. Putin centralised all power in the presidency, suppressing dissent and weakening institutions in the process.

Now, the regime needs to keep delivering military victories or face a loss of support.  Excessive centralisation makes the system unstable and inefficient, focused on survival rather than strategy. As sanctions bite and funds run short, the elites are growing impatient, and the chance of conflict is rising in regions such as the Caucasus.

There are two ways out for the Russian regime:  improve its finances by reconciling with the West, or regain legitimacy by replacing the president. Even these will only buy it time, and may not prevent a total collapse.

There is no clear heir to Putin, and collapse could be followed by the redistribution of power to various government bodies, companies, and regions, including Chechnya.

If we are to believe this article, the current regime has less than 24 months.

[ML]

I think with the almost complete stupidity of the average Russian citizen . . . the country could be in complete economic bankruptcy and losing militarily everywhere . . . and Putin would still have sky high approval ratings.

Predictions of his downfall are only dreams.

[AkMike]

Is it a small wonder that the Huilomeister recently formed his own Praetorian Guard that answers to him alone? Now he's trying to get them the "right" to shoot into crowds that might protest.

Not only is Russia’s political regime is unsustainable it's unstable.

[jone]

I tend to think that when Russia replaces Putin, the successor will be worse.  There is no method for revising the government, except through constitutional revolution.  The Siloviki would not allow a loss of power without confrontation with the populace.

[msmobyone]

Mendy has touched on this,before.. Ivanov could be next... not good in his opinion...

[BillyB]

I found the following article to be quite credible.......

http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR_166_PUTINS_DOWNFALL.pdf

Seen plenty of articles like that and those articles seem out of touch with reality and are basically wishful thinking of the people who write them. The Soviet Union had a lot less oil, less natural gas, been through a world war, and didn't do business with the West and they survived for almost 70 years under their style of rule. Russia, although not perfect, is doing better than most countries in the world. Now if articles like the one above talk about some country in Africa collapsing in a couple of years, they'd make more sense.

I found the following article to be quite credible.......

http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR_166_PUTINS_DOWNFALL.pdf
If we are to believe this article, the current regime has less than 24 months.

There were predictions of Putin's fall years ago. One example is in the link below written in 2012 saying Putin's time is running out. Now, 4 years later, Putin's popularity is higher among his citizens than other leaders of the world with theirs.

We may not like what Russia is doing to Ukraine but if the current economic sanctions aren't enough to even get them to pull out of Ukraine, it's certainly not going to sink their economy.

http://www.economist.com/node/21548941

[fathertime]

Seen plenty of articles like that and those articles seem out of touch with reality and are basically wishful thinking of the people who write them. The Soviet Union had a lot less oil, less natural gas, been through a world war, and didn't do business with the West and they survived for almost 70 years under their style of rule. Russia, although not perfect, is doing better than most countries in the world. Now if articles like the one above talk about some country in Africa collapsing in a couple of years, they'd make more sense.


There were predictions of Putin's fall years ago. One example is in the link below written in 2012 saying Putin's time is running out. Now, 4 years later, Putin's popularity is higher among his citizens than other leaders of the world with theirs.

We may not like what Russia is doing to Ukraine but if the current economic sanctions aren't enough to even get them to pull out of Ukraine, it's certainly not going to sink their economy.

http://www.economist.com/node/21548941

2 years ago, people here were predicting Russia had just weeks to months before they were done for!  that didn't happen....Now this time when it doesn't happen 2 years from now, there will be a fresh round of similar predictions that probably won't come through either.....


Fathertime!

[Slumba]

If you had asked me in 2008 if the USA could kick the can into 2016 I would have been doubtful about it.

Yet here we are.

I think it is more likely that Russia will begin to lose the Far East part of Russia to the Chinese, who still feel it was wrongfully taken from them.  Since China has USD they can buy RUB, help their Russian friends, and buy up large pieces of whatever they want to, such as oil and gas, or other resources they desire, such as "farmland".  It will be the beginning of the nibble.

[whynotme]

I think with the almost complete stupidity of the average Russian citizen . . . the country could be in complete economic bankruptcy and losing militarily everywhere . . . and Putin would still have sky high approval ratings.

Predictions of his downfall are only dreams.

Не дождетесь 

[Shadow]

The election of Donald Trump as president will solve any trouble in Russia.

[msmobyone]

The election of Donald Trump as president will solve any trouble in Russia.

A good question is WHY would the Kremlin seemingly favour his  winning...

[JayH]

The Russian government has approved a sane and sobering forecast of socio-economic development of Russia in the next three years. Prospects for the country look so bleak that President Vladimir Putin may finally start to listen to the opinion of leading economists who supported him despite his undisguised sympathy for the giant public sector with an admixture of crony capitalism.


Bloomberg: Putin is urgently looking for a plan for salvation

http://www.economics-prorok.com/2016/04/bloomberg_24.html

[Shadow]

A good question is WHY would the Kremlin seemingly favour his  winning...

Not just the Kremlin, most people outside of the US seem to see him as the most likely fool.

[msmobyone]

Not just the Kremlin, most people outside of the US seem to see him as the most likely fool.

Wrong..
After Trumps 'wall building' and 'ban Muslims' stunts...in case you forgot..there was a UK petition..which I signed ..to ban the twat.

There was a counter petition..defeated by over 10 to 1

I can therefore speak ..with some authority..wondering how your great nation has such a crap choice of candidates.

[BillyB]

A good question is WHY would the Kremlin seemingly favour his  winning...

Knowing that the American public looks unfavorably against Russia at this time, The Kremlin knows the candidate they publically support will lose votes which means they actually support Hillary or Sanders over Trump.

[Shadow]

Wrong..
AfterTrumps 'wall building' and 'ban Muslims' stunts...in case you forgot..there was a UK petition..which I signed ..to ban the twat.

There was a counter petition..defeated by over 10 to 1

I can therefore speak ..with some authority..wondering how your great nation has such a crap choice of candidates.

That is only becvause all the Muslims in Britain signed.

[fathertime]

Knowing that the American public looks unfavorably against Russia at this time, The Kremlin knows the candidate they publically support will lose votes which means they actually support Hillary or Sanders over Trump.

Ha!  That is a good one Billy.   To be earnest though, there is a substantial segment of GOP voters, and potential voters that look at Russia/Putin more favorably than Obama.  In a general election though I think your opinion holds some water.   My gut says that Russia would actually prefer Trump over Cruz, and then a tossup between Trump/Clinton.  It is pretty damn hard to predict what Trump might do if president, Hillary has already shown some instinct towards being a military adventurist.


Fathertime!

[BillyB]

To be earnest though, there is a substantial segment of GOP voters, and potential voters that look at Russia/Putin more favorably than Obama.

That's because Conservatives see Obama's actions around the world as weak and Putin making strong moves to get what he wants but there's no doubt in my mind Conservatives would be more likely to use the military to get in Putin's face than the Liberals.

[fathertime]

That's because Conservatives see Obama's actions around the world as weak and Putin making strong moves to get what he wants but there's no doubt in my mind Conservatives would be more likely to use the military to get in Putin's face than the Liberals.

I think you are characterizing many people's thoughts correct.


Fathertime! 

[2tallbill]

I found the following article to be quite credible.......

http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR_166_PUTINS_DOWNFALL.pdf

The article made some excellent points but I think it was overly simplistic in both
the problems and the solutions. Russia has never been free in anybodies lifetime.
They had the Czars and peasants/serfs, then socialism/communism, then a brief
period of total chaos followed by Putin.

Putin could do many things to improve things dramatically, but he doesn't really
give a f#ck. He could take an active interest in cutting out bribery, graft and
corruption. That would put more money in every persons pockets and stimulate
foreign investment and create better paying jobs and the economy would take off.

Now, the regime needs to keep delivering military victories or face a loss of support.  Excessive centralisation makes the system unstable and inefficient, focused on survival rather than strategy. As sanctions bite and funds run short, the elites are growing impatient, and the chance of conflict is rising in regions such as the Caucasus.

There are two ways out for the Russian regime:  improve its finances by reconciling with the West, or regain legitimacy by replacing the president. Even these will only buy it time, and may not prevent a total collapse.

The European West will reconcile with him, because they want his gas and oil
and Russia will cut off it's nose to spite it's face with tit for tat sanctions and the
Euro West has no stomach for such things.

Any conflict in the Caucasus will give him the military victories that the article
says he needs at a far lower cost than foreign wars and he will try to justify
his ever tighter stranglehold on liberties for security from terror.

He will continue to rattle sabers at his FSU neighbors and try to destabilize the
newer NATO countries and NATO itself, again the European West will facilitate this. 

If we are to believe this article, the current regime has less than 24 months.

Communism would have only laste 24 months too. It was a far worse and even less
popular system.

[msmobyone]

That is only becvause all the Muslims in Britain signed.

 

[2tallbill]

Hillary has already shown some instinct towards being a military adventurist.

The US and Russia have never fought directly, always through proxies regardless of
whether the US regime was Democrat or Republican.

Hillary has shown herself to be completely inept and can't name a single accomplishment
during her reign as Secretary of State. The Russian reset, throwing Poland under the bus,
Arab Spring, throwing Mubarak under the bus, killing Qaddafi, she gave weapons to bad
people, Yemen and other places have been bloodbaths and all can be attributed to her.

I could go on for pages, but her instincts are always wrong 100% of the time. 

 

[jone]

Bill,

She's never done the 'right' thing.  She's done the thing that will be most politicially expedient for the moment, IMO.

[mendeleyev]

The article made some excellent points but I think it was overly simplistic in both
the problems and the solutions. Russia has never been free in anybodies lifetime.
They had the Czars and peasants/serfs, then socialism/communism, then a brief
period of total chaos followed by Putin.

Even given the author's prestigious Russian education, his Russian ethnic roots, and his former position in the Russian government, I agree that his conclusion is premature.

Putin could do many things to improve things dramatically, but he doesn't really
give a f#ck. He could take an active interest in cutting out bribery, graft and
corruption. That would put more money in every persons pockets and stimulate
foreign investment and create better paying jobs and the economy would take off.

Not sure if I agree totally, as he wants improvement on his terms. Unfortunately, he has painted himself in a corner for one, and he must juggle competing demands from those who have the ability to remove him from office. He serves at the behest of the various security services, and his latest move to consolidate a "national guard" that answers only to him is a direct challenge to those in the shadows, a desperate one at that, to buy some time.

The European West will reconcile with him, because they want his gas and oil
and Russia will cut off it's nose to spite it's face with tit for tat sanctions and the
Euro West has no stomach for such things.

Yes, unfortunately.

Any conflict in the Caucasus will give him the military victories that the article
says he needs at a far lower cost than foreign wars and he will try to justify
his ever tighter stranglehold on liberties for security from terror.

He has sort of a hold over Chechnya and Dagestan for now, but you have a Chechen leader who would love to step into Putin's shoes at the first sign of weakness. That would ignite a very bloody civil war, given the Muslim vs Orthodox lay of the land.

Armenia is back in the fold via the Eurasian (customs) Union, so that isn't an issue unless Russia decides to settle the not-so-frozen Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in favour of Armenia. That would be tempting as the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan is now very cozy with the West, to the anger of Moscow.

As for the rest of the Caucasus, the real thorn in his side is Georgia. Any sign of weakness in Washington will be very bad news for Tbilisi.

He will continue to rattle sabers at his FSU neighbors and try to destabilize the
newer NATO countries and NATO itself, again the European West will facilitate this. 

Communism would have only last 24 months too. It was a far worse and even less
popular system.

Curious that at one point the Communist party was outlawed. It has been back for quite some time and at first comprised mostly older pensioners who longed for the good ole days when one could send a neighbor or relative to the Gulag with a false accusation. Today, there is an active younger component of the Communist movement, made up of those too young, and too stupid, to realize what they yearn for.

I am not convinced that it would die so quickly. The young and stupid, much like those feeling the "bern," don't have the brainpower to understand why that system doesn't work. And yes, there is really no difference between a "communist" and a so-called "democratic socialist."

[JayH]

For all these reasons and more, Kirillova concludes, “the war in the Donbas really has become a turning point not only in Russian but even in contemporary European history. All of the consequences of this are not yet recognized or even fully manifest. But the longer Russians” – and all others – “close their eyes to them, the more pernicious these will be.”

Seven reasons why Putin’s war in Ukraine is a turning point in Russian and world history

http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/04/22/seven-reasons-why-putins-war-in-ukraine-is-a-turning-point-in-russian-and-world-history/