The Struggle For Ukraine

[Chelseaboy]

The Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant near Moscow is on fire & beyond saving.
It’s one of Russia’s largest manufacturers of chemical solvents.

The Aerospace Defence Research Institute in Tver burned down earlier in the day. The “Iskander" and "S-400" missile systems were designed here.

We are starting to notice a pattern. 

Large fire at Oil Depot in Russia's Bryansk this morning.


First fire was at a civilian facility with about 10k tons of fuel,with a second fire 10-15 minutes later at a military depot with 5k tons of fuel.


The pattern continues 

[Boethius]

Beo- I'm curious your take in something.

You have suggested a international audited vote in donbass regions.
I can understand that.

However ,  the usa electoral system (imperfect as it is) has a built in counter balance to a simple majority win by population centers,as it's the only reasonable way for the rural.areas ,which are the largest territory ,to have a voice.

Obviously donetsk,lughansk  would lilely be largely pro russian and have the numbers to carry the oblasts.
However it's seems apparent the villages and smaller cities are  pro Ukraine have been under Ukraine control most of this disputed time and welcome that.as they were treated particular poorly by the dpr thugs.

I guess like goergoa they could be relocated and likely many have .

I never see the media on.either side of this cover the common man's point of view. .
Its generally shown only from. nationalistic outspoken and highly involved individuals.
Granted the conflict will bring that out in both groups

But how would the average person ,in say slovyansk feel?

From what I've seen in more random.interaction vids(not interviews) they feel Ukraine is Ukraine ,and no love lost for the independent republic leadership.

I don't agree that the regions would, because of the cities, vote to join Russia.  I think the vote would split along ethnic lines, and in both regions, Ukrainians are a majority.  Donetsk is the only city with a majority Russian population, and Luhansk is almost evenly split. 

[Boethius]

I thought this was an interesting read, by a Russian-

http://carnegiemoscow.org/2022/04/19/putin-s-war-has-moved-russia-from-authoritarianism-to-hybrid-totalitarianism-pub-86921

[Chelseaboy]

 Russian Airbase on fire yesterday at Ussuriysk,Vladivostok.


The pattern continues 

[krimster2]

"
http://carnegiemoscow.org/2022/04/19/putin-s-war-has-moved-russia-from-authoritarianism-to-hybrid-totalitarianism-pub-86921"


I welcome the new insect overlords in Russia. I'd like to remind them that I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves.
In the future there are no political parties in the USA, you just have to declare which space billionaire you support

Alexander Hamilton, wrote the following:

"The truth unquestionably is, that the only path to a subversion of the republican system of the Country is, by flattering the prejudices of the people, and exciting their jealousies and apprehensions, to throw affairs into confusion, and bring on civil commotion. Tired at length of anarchy, or want of government, they may take shelter in the arms of monarchy for repose and security.

Those then, who resist a confirmation of public order, are the true Artificers of monarchy—not that this is the intention of the generality of them. Yet it would not be difficult to lay the finger upon some of their party who may justly be suspected. When a man unprincipled in private life desperate in his fortune, bold in his temper, possessed of considerable talents, having the advantage of military habits—despotic in his ordinary demeanour—known to have scoffed in private at the principles of liberty—when such a man is seen to mount the hobby horse of popularity—to join in the cry of danger to liberty—to take every opportunity of embarrassing the General Government & bringing it under suspicion—to flatter and fall in with all the non sense of the zealots of the day—It may justly be suspected that his object is to throw things into confusion that he may “ride the storm and direct the whirlwind.”

Hamilton used to print money, by smearing ink on his face, and pressing it against a small piece of green paper, with the number 10 printed on it
a tradition that continues to this day

meanwhile,
The richest guy on the 2021 Forbes 400 owns the Washington Post. Number 2 now owns Twitter. Number 3 owns Facebook. Numbers 5 and 6 started Google. Numbers 4 and 9 started Microsoft. Number 10 owns Bloomberg. Why is the press controlled by billionaires?

[Grumpy]

Speaking at a joint press conference with Russia’s foreign ministry, Sergei Lavrov, the UN secretary general, António Guterres, said a “violent battle” is under way across Ukraine’s Donbas region with “tremendous death and destruction”.

Guterres said:

    We recognise that we face a crisis in Mariupol. Thousands of civilians are in dire need of live-saving humanitarian assistance, and many of evacuation.

    The United Nations is ready to fully mobilise its human and logistical resources to help save lives in Mariupol.

He said his proposal was for a coordinated work of the UN, the International Committee of the Red Cross, and Ukrainian and Russian forces to enable “the safe evacuation of the civilians who want to leave” the Azovstal steel plant and Mariupol city “in any direction they choose”.

Guardian live feed

April 26 (Reuters) - United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told Russia's foreign minister on Tuesday that he was ready to fully mobilise the organisation's resources to save lives and evacuate people from the besieged Ukrainian city of Mariupol.

http://www.reuters.com/world/un-is-ready-save-lives-mariupol-un-chief-tells-russia-2022-04-26/

[krimster2]

What would have been interesting would’ve been a Dunkirk type of evacuation of Mariupol.
Hundreds of small boats from around the world crewed by volunteers
Russia couldn’t have stopped them all
the US Navy could’ve been leveraged if they had tried to
Once upon a time the US Navy wasn’t afraid to blockade Cuba over Russian plans of world domination
and the US Navy itself evacuated Russian civilians from southern Ukraine at the last stage of the Bolshevik revolution (Google USS Whipple)
one day in the future the Chinese will take over all of the USA without a shot being fired because it'd be too risky

[ML]

The richest guy on the 2021 Forbes 400 owns the Washington Post. Number 2 now owns Twitter. Number 3 owns Facebook. Numbers 5 and 6 started Google. Numbers 4 and 9 started Microsoft. Number 10 owns Bloomberg. Why is the press controlled by billionaires?

Because they can.
I would do it also, if I had the money.
Communication and influencing (controlling) public opinion is the most powerful tool available to achieve goals.
Just look at the success Putin has had with the Russian people who are completely brainwashed by him.

[Boethius]

I think this is a good discussion -

[krimster2]

Sanctions will have more effect on Russia’s economy than higher energy prices will have on the West’s economy,  it’s still another “war of attrition” between the two sides, with the west somewhat ahead on this metric, and it might give an added push for the West to move away from fossil fuels

the KGB had insiders who gained knowledge and profit for themselves by being secret “sanctions busters” for the soviet government, this will happen all over again with the FSB’s sanction busters

Russia’s trade with China will grow and Russia will be highly dependent on China, this puts China in a MUCH better position to control Russia’s economy

Russians have 200 billion USD in crypto, their weak points are the crypto exchanges
when they want to trade crypto for cash, USA COULD make a better crypto tracker to block Russians, but haven’t yet

overall, western sanctions are still pretty weak, and more needs to be made on the country and on individual oligarchs

the west could shutdown North Stream One or South Stream as well as already blocking North Stream 2, this would force Russia to pipe more gas through Ukraine (see chart of Ukrainian gas flows)

West could encourage Russians to emigrate,  though Russians will likely block Russians leaving altogether, instead of just restricting like now

Russia will likely try and create more tension in the middle east, hoping a war breaks out and Iran will restrict the flow of oil to further raise energy prices, which is the West’s Achilles heel
the West needs to move AWAY from fossil fuels in general at “warp speed” meanwhile substitute LNG for Russian gas

[Nightwish]

Russian Airbase on fire yesterday at Ussuriysk,Vladivostok.


The pattern continues 

oh no, more?

Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov: Ammunition depot is on fire near the village of Staraya Nelidovka, Belgorod Region.

[Boethius]

This woman, originally from Russia and living in Stockholm, took time from her day to destroy Ukrainian symbols in front of the Russian embassy.  A Ukrainian woman started filming her destruction, so the Russian attacked the Ukrainian.  The Ukrainian started recording, posted the recording on her Facebook, the clip went viral, and the Russian has now lost her job at a Swedish school.


A cautionary tale to recognize the power of social media.

[Chelseaboy]

My son phoned me yesterday,and we were discussing why the Russian people in general have such a deep-seated hatred/distrust of the west,which makes the idea of their neighbours Ukraine getting closer to the west so abhorrent to them.


He said Russia has been invaded by the west through Napoleon and Hitler,so he reckons it stems from there.


That doesn't excuse the raping and killing of innocents done by Russian troops in both Germany and now Ukraine though.


It also doesn't explain why  so many  Russians prefer to live in the west if we're so bad.

[Boethius]

There’s always been a tension in Russian history between “Westernizers” and “Slavophiles”. There are reams of books and academic articles on
this very subject.

Here’s one on the most recent take-

http://ecfr.eu/article/commentary_how_russia_has_come_to_loathe_the_west311346/?amp

[Chelseaboy]

oh no, more?

Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov: Ammunition depot is on fire near the village of Staraya Nelidovka, Belgorod Region.

Explosions heard in the cities of Kursk and in Oboyan where locals there said they heard military planes flying overhead.


In Voronezh region reports that Russian air defences in action to fend off an attack on Baltimore military air base.

[krimster2]

yo dawg, Rosneft, run by longtime Putin ally Igor Sechin, invited bids for 38 million barrels of oil this week. No one was buying. RU doesn’t have space to store oil, so lack of demand causes producers to stop production.  sad...

wussup with all the explosions in Transnistria?
does this mean they'll cancel production of Rocky Horror Picture Show II there?
so no more "sweet transexual from Transnistria? sad...

[Grumpy]

 It is past time for Putin's KGB buddy and tobacco mafioso Vladimir Mikhailovich Gundyayev to be included in the sanctions.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/22/human-rights-activists-call-for-indictment-of-russian-patriarch-kirill-a77461 

[krimster2]

'yo homies
Economic Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni told Italian daily Il Messaggero that the EU aims to cut dependence on RU oil and gas 2/3 by the end 2022, and end Russian imports completely by 2027.

[ML]

I think this is a good discussion -

Thanks for posting this reference.
Some of the presenters were very good with their analysis.
Interesting that one guy stated that Russia already knows that $300 billion in impounded funds is lost to them.

I keep thinking of one caution:  That was the situation where extreme reparations required from Germany at end of WWI lead to the wild inflation in Germany and the rise of Hitler.

When will the vast majority of Russians look back and say . . . OMG what did we do to destroy our own country economically.   They can't just lay the blame on Putin.

[Trenchcoat]

it also doesn’t seem likely that Pootin will plan on continuing the current form of the war for the next decade or so, hoping to wear out Ukraine and the West…

At the moment Pootin doesn't seem to be making much progress in the Donbas despite reassigning more of his forces there. Instead he is apparently launching missile strikes in central & west Ukraine on strategic sites.

I think you are right Krim that at this rate it will take a long time for the Russians to make any progress using conventional military intervention. They have been doing that and their efforts have stalled and they are bogged down going nowhere. There's no quick or even short to medium term win on the horizon for Pootin of he continues to use conventional military methods. I'm still not sure if he can get a win unless using chemical or other methods on a large scale though. I can see that if he can achieve breakthroughs bit by bit he may be able to gradually push matters his way. At the moment though I don't think there is any sign of chemical weapon use on any scale to make any real difference on the ground, I not so sure if we will see that. O wonder if Pootin is stuck in a situation that he has got himself into and doesn't no the way out that he is just hoping it will start to turn good for him.

There's a lot of people who have suffered horribly because of Pootin's decision to invade and yet he can't even show any real achievement on the ground. If he had made a quick effective strike then at least it would have been all over quickly but now both Ukraine & Russia seem to be stuck in a horrible elongated situation that neither can easily get out off. For me I had hoped that this situation would have been sorted one way or another quickly and with the least misery heaped on people possible. I myself was hoping to be in Ukraine this Spring/Summer in a matter of weeks or so. Unless it gets resolved soon it's really likely to mess with my plans. Kyiv & Odesa are of free from Russian threat but with missiles flying in the sky I can't very well go travelling there.

My slim hope is that the Russian Donbas offensive runs out of steam in a few weeks and at that point Russia gets more reasonable in negotiations, but I can't really see what deal could be done, none looks to be the answer. Ukraine wants back the Donbas & Crimea and Russia wants at least those areas and if it can more. I can't see Pootin giving up those areas nor Ukraine conceding them, particularly the Donbas.

[Chelseaboy]

There were heavy losses for the Ukrainian troops in the Donbas yesterday,and Russian troops are making regular if slow progress using a pincer movement ,so the war may be starting to turn in Russia's favour unfortunately.


The promised Howitzers from the west are crucial if Ukraine is to turn the war in their favour.


The USA,Canada and France are all sending 155 mm Howitzers,which will outgun the 152mm Howitzers the Russians have...with a longer range to strike from,so they can smash the artillery Russia is using to shell the cities and Ukrainian troops.


The huge problem is getting them from Poland to the Donbas,without being hit by air strikes in the open Steppes of east Ukraine during transportation.


Russian has been destroying the connecting train lines for a reason.


They also need to be behind an effective air defence system when being used ,if and when they get there,so air-strikes can't hit them.

[rwd123]

As predicted...

Russia commenced "Phase 2" with the primary objective of complete control of the east and a secondary objective of taking the Black Sea coast. Unsurprising the news in Transnistria. NATO are getting involved surrepticiously in Transnistria, just like with the attack on the Moskva - which was closer to Romania (de jure NATO) than Ukraine (de facto NATO) when hit. Russia may need to recognize Transnistria as they did with LNR and DNR and perform a "special operation" or step up their "peacekeeping" else NATO may move in.

Also as predicted Russia wants to cut off supply lines from the west so have hit key rail infrastructure. Also as predicted Ukrainian forces suffering massive human casualties (and POWs).  Their attacks on Russian soil serve little strategic benefit so will have minimal impact in the course of the war.

I should have bought stock in Raytheon, Boeing and the other war profiteers... I should have kept a watch on Pelosi's investments...

In other news -

• One dead British mercenary confirmed, another missing
• Many other foreign mercenaries are perishing or captured
• Get your popcorn ready for when the Azovstal plant is "cleared", Putin ain't negotiating on that one! LOL @ Zelensky who wants Azov and NATO guys free to go to Turkey.
• Gazprom racking up record profits while Europe's economy is in a tailspin.
• European countries one by one accepting gas for rubles.
• Indonesia bans exports of palm oil... which Europe was using to cover the short fall of oil from Ukraine. The Europeans are ideological idiots!
• No surprise in France with Macron, nothing will really change there. Riots if not civil war is coming to France. That's not me talking but their former head of intelligence!
• Chinese lockdowns are a major concern. It's moronic and destructive but the CCP don't like losing face! Global implications but largely overlooked.
• The world is moving closer to nuclear conflict. This is far more serious than the Cuban missile crisis.

Sadly things are likely to escalate rather than de-escalate.

Trench - Russia is hitting ALL of Ukraine. There's no way you'll visit in the Summer unless Ukraine surrenders... not gonna happen on Biden's watch... or his son's laptop! Unless you're creating TikTok videos with Zelensky then Ukraine is a no go zone.

[krimster2]

“as predicted”?????



you think a couple of rockets will stop or even slow the weapons transfer to Ukraine?
If they need to
Ukraine will tow them with tractors
packs of children and geezers will grab ropes and pull them

the only thing that Russia has that will stop these weapons are the tanks and aircraft
that are destroyed when Ukrainians shoot these weapons at them
that and only that stops them

yeah, our economy is taking a hit, Russia is gonna take a bigger one
the men in my family fought in WWII against fascism, those at home lived with rationing
we have it easy compared to then and 1000X easier than the innocents in Ukraine
who’ve done nothing to justify what Russia is doing to them

most of us support Ukraine and are OK with whatever sacrifices it takes to defeat fascism
both in WWII and now

of course, there’s gonna be the little “Lord Haw Haws”  but they’ll get theirs in the end, just like he did
what a sad pathetic little man you are to cheer on the massive slaughter of innocent people in what can only be described as an act of genocide

[2tallbill]

it might give an added push for the West to move away from fossil fuels

Yes, we can use Unicorn farts, fairy dust, perpetual motion machines et al
or we can go all nuclear all the time.





I am working on my own invention (see below) to capture hot air from people
shorter than I am.



 

[krimster2]

The future is small modular nuclear reactors (SMR) that use a “breed and burn” fuel cycle that eliminates 99% of nuclear waste by converting it into energy

http://www.terrapower.com/  their first one is being built in Wyoming

an SMR reactor is about 5% of the cost of the big old fashioned ones we have now
90% of it is mass-produced in a factory
site preparation is minimal, and can be completely underground
operating cost is minimal

electric vehicles are the future, our grandchildren will never see a V-8 engine except in a museum