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Author Topic: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US  (Read 1076 times)

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Offline tfcrew

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Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« on: August 29, 2019, 08:44:00 PM »
Heads up and best wishes for our Florida members. Hopefully it will turn away but that doesn't seem likely at this time.
Quote
The storm is expected to strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane before making landfall in Florida over Labor Day weekend.
http://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurricane-dorian-august-2019/index.html
Facts do not cease to exist just because they are ignored.  -Aldous Huxley

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Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2019, 09:09:59 AM »
Heads up and best wishes for our Florida members. Hopefully it will turn away but that doesn't seem likely at this time.  http://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurricane-dorian-august-2019/index.html

Yes, good luck out there to our Florida guys and gals
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Offline BdHvA

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2019, 11:45:32 AM »
To those who will be impacted by Dorian, please stay safe.

Personally I would skeptical of any news/weather report from a news outlet such as ABC/CBS/CNN et al. Below is a far more comprehensive discussion which goes into depth of the various models and possibilities.

http://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Dangerous-Hurricane-Dorian-Slowly-Intensifying?cm_ven=cat6-widget
Experierence is not what happens to you. It is what you do with what happens to you. A. Huxley

Offline tfcrew

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Online jone

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2019, 12:22:02 PM »
Talk about models that are 'all over the map'!

 



Does this mean I should cancel this weekend's trip to the Turks and Caicos?
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Offline BdHvA

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2019, 12:31:23 PM »
That is typical for a hurricane at this stage. Some of the tracks are based on historical records and others based on models that are factoring in various influences.

What seems certain it will be slow moving and perhaps Category 3 or 4. The slow moving is bad news if Dorian makes landfall. Landfall could come during a so-called neap tide cycle.

Cancelling the trip Jone might be prudent. Off course if you like wild weather and living dangerously go for it. Turks and Caicos are far to the South and should see awesome surf.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2019, 12:32:58 PM by BdHvA »
Experierence is not what happens to you. It is what you do with what happens to you. A. Huxley

Online jone

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2019, 12:38:21 PM »
Yeah, Av,

I know.  It is really a pipe dream.   But the coral reef around the islands mitigates much of the surf.   Would be a fantastic show, though.
Kissing girls is a goodness.  It beats the hell out of card games.  - Robert Heinlein

Online Gator

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2019, 01:07:33 PM »
I have never seen such a scatter of predictions.  Three primary steering forces are working on Dorian:

     1.  typical Bermuda High for this time of the year that pushes the storm south and west.  The more west Dorian moves, the smaller effect of the Bermuda High, causing Dorian to hook to the north.  Also,  the Bermuda High is now weakening. 

     2.  a trough in the Gulf of Mexico that slows movement to the west. 

     3.  an atmospheric high with dry air in SE US that will eventually force Dorian slowly to the east.

 
The east coast of Florida will take the brunt of the wind and storm surge.  If Dorian reaches Tampa, by that time the winds will be largely blown out by passing over land.  If the slow movement persists, it will create flooding. 

The worst case for Tampa:  Dorian makes it to the Gulf of Mexico where the warm water would re-intensify the winds, and then the storm hooks eastward, stalling at Tampa.  Perish such thoughts.   The point where Dorian originated has been the birthplace of 4 hurricanes in   
weather history, and 2 f those meandered to Tampa.

Jone, the high elevation of your destination is about 10 feet if that.  Casting for bonefish?     
   


Offline witchdoctor

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2019, 07:54:42 PM »
Thanks everybody! I live on the east coast of Florida and if you want to know where I live just look at the middle of the track where it may come ashore and that's me. I am on North Hutchinson Island.  It is true and most of the posters on this forum are more accurate than the televised news. I have noticed the news Shifting The Tracks to make it seem like it will come closer probably for ratings.
Based on GFS and European models I won't take a direct hit.  European says it will go up the coast and it is the most accurate.  Of course may change. 8)
Witchdoctor

Offline tfcrew

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #9 on: August 30, 2019, 07:55:38 PM »
Quote
Im rooting for a direct hit on Mar a Lago! Former Canadian prime minister creates Twitter storm
Quote
Forecasters are closely watching Dorian, which could potentially strike the east coast of Florida early Tuesday as a Category 4 hurricane. But in a since-deleted tweet, former Canadian prime minister Kim Campbell responded to news of the threat by exclaiming, Im rooting for a direct hit on Mar a Lago!
http://beta.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/08/30/im-rooting-direct-hit-mar-a-lago-former-canadian-pm-creates-twitter-storm/
Why are all these people so bitter?
Facts do not cease to exist just because they are ignored.  -Aldous Huxley

Offline tfcrew

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2019, 08:24:08 PM »
http://beta.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/08/30/im-rooting-direct-hit-mar-a-lago-former-canadian-pm-creates-twitter-storm/
Why are all these people so bitter?
By that...I mean all the Post comments [bottom of page] are hostile and nasty ..wishing damage regardless to whomever. I'm not at all crazy about Donald Trump but the hatefulness and viscous statements seem contrary to the perceived liberal cause does it not?
Facts do not cease to exist just because they are ignored.  -Aldous Huxley

Offline tfcrew

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #11 on: September 01, 2019, 02:22:22 PM »
Dorian is now a Cat. 5 gusts at 185... @ 5 mph ---The folks in the Bahamas are really in trouble....



Facts do not cease to exist just because they are ignored.  -Aldous Huxley

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #12 on: September 01, 2019, 03:47:20 PM »
185 mph will easily remove roofs from well built dwellings and destroy weaker dwellings.     

The Bahamas are protected by reefs from storm surges, yet such winds could test the lower elevations of much of the islands.  I have never been to Freeport or Abaco, but if like the many other Bahamian islands I have visited, the people there are in a world of hurt.   They will need our support.   

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #13 on: September 01, 2019, 04:05:56 PM »
I was thinking Florida east coast would dodge a bullet.  But this is not a bullet; it is a loose missile.
 
I just checked the reports, and Dorian is still moving west at a slow rate.  The storm had been predicted to begin to show turning by now.  Difficult to believe, but much depends upon a "high" moving SE from central Canada. 

If Dorian does not turn north soon, this will cause great damage.  Turning later and hugging the coast would still be very dangerous and damaging.  A mere 10-20 miles of longitude is significant (which is only 2-4 hours in the life of the storm track). 

So everyone along the Treasure Coast of Florida is watching the TV reports.  Supposedly the roads do not yet have heavy traffic, which is concerning given the potential for a significant event.       

 

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #14 on: September 01, 2019, 04:11:54 PM »
Dorian is now a Cat. 5 gusts at 185... @ 5 mph


Nuke anyone?
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Offline BC

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #15 on: September 01, 2019, 07:09:11 PM »
Nuke anyone?

would just add more energy into the mix, maybe bump Dorian up to 200 mph for a spell.

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #16 on: September 01, 2019, 08:29:27 PM »

How about conventional weapons? We'll drop MOAB( Massive Ordnance Air Blast) or better known as The Mother Of All Bombs on the hurricane. Worked on ISIS. May work on Dorian.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GBU-43/B_MOAB

On a previous hurricane passing through Florida, one man was shooting at the hurricane. Didn't accomplish anything. Probably need all the Army's and civilians guns to shoot at oncoming winds to slow it down. Guns, including the .50 cal Gator wants to ban, can save lives and probably Gator's home!
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Offline BC

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #17 on: September 01, 2019, 10:19:10 PM »
How about conventional weapons? We'll drop MOAB( Massive Ordnance Air Blast) or better known as The Mother Of All Bombs on the hurricane. Worked on ISIS. May work on Dorian.

Nah, net effect would be like throwing a cup of sand on a beach.

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #18 on: September 02, 2019, 09:05:27 AM »
IIRC, the energy produced by an average hurricane is equivalent to one 10-megaton* nuke every 20 minutes. 

Considering Dorian is one of the strongest storms ever, BC's "cup of sand on the beach" may be an accurate representation.     
_______________
* megaton = million tons of TNT

 

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #19 on: September 02, 2019, 09:26:53 AM »
IIRC, the energy produced by an average hurricane is equivalent to one 10-megaton* nuke every 20 minutes. 

 

I believe it. The massive size of a hurricane which is bigger than many countries won't be affected by a few nukes.

On the bright side, Cyclones and typhoons have known to kill hundreds of thousands of people while hurricanes have killed in the tens of thousands. Hope that makes people feel better about Dorian.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_natural_disasters_by_death_toll
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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #20 on: September 02, 2019, 11:05:02 AM »
Isn't this the 5th Atlantic storm in five years ..?

Unprecedented..but some will tell us it's nought to do with man-kind ..


Having heard about the loss of life in The Bahamas, I hope it will lose power before landfall on the US mainland .. 

Thinking of you - who might bed affected
We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

Offline tfcrew

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Re: Hurricane Dorian intensifies as it heads toward US
« Reply #21 on: September 03, 2019, 02:30:11 PM »
Bill Hemmer on FOX news this PM---    "Dorian is moving away from the Bahamas..that should bring them some relief."
Gee...Do you think?   :-\
Facts do not cease to exist just because they are ignored.  -Aldous Huxley

 

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