Ukrainian plane crashed flying from Tehran

[tfcrew]

Ukrainian plane carrying 176 crashes outside Tehran, killing all on board

A Ukrainian airplane carrying 176 passengers and crew crashed shortly after taking off from Tehran's airport Wednesday morning, killing all on board and turning farmland on the outskirts of the capital into fields of flaming debris.
The Ukraine International Airlines flight, bound for the country's capital of Kiev, plunged from the sky just minutes after departing Imam Khomeini International Airport, according to Iran's state-run IRNA news agency. The crash came hours after Iran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles on Iraqi bases housing American and coalition soldiers. Both Ukrainian and Iranian officials say they suspect a mechanical issue brought down the Boeing 737-800 aircraft.
"I heard a massive explosion and all the houses started to shake. There was fire everywhere," Din Mohammad Qassemi, an Iranian who lives near the crash site, told the Associated Press. Qassemi said he had been watching news broadcasts about the Iranian missile attack in revenge for the killing of Revolutionary Guard Gen. Qassem Soleimani when he heard the plane hit the ground outside his home.   http://www.foxnews.com/world/ukrainian-plane-crash-tehran-iran-180-passengers

[BillyB]

Ukrainian plane was only 3 1/2 years old. Iran said an engine caught fire but a two engine plane can fly on one engine long enough to find the nearest airport.

[jone]

Independent aviation experts have noted projectile holes in a wing and the fuselage.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-plane-crash-shootdown-ukraine-boeing-latest-a9275051.html

[BillyB]

No evidence of the pilots radioing in an emergency surfaced yet. Possible they died up in the air? Hopefully Iran finds and shares the black box recordings with the world.

[2tallbill]

After the Boeing crash near Tehran, who will investigate?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/08/after-boeing-crash-near-tehran-who-will-investigate/


Iran refuses to give Boeing black box from Tehran crash
http://www.ft.com/content/67414762-31d6-11ea-9703-eea0cae3f0de


Iran says it will not give black box of Ukrainian plane to Boeing
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Ukranian-plane-crashes-in-Iranian-after-technical-issue-613494

[jone]

There are very clear shrapnel holes in many areas of the plane.   The Sun article, below, shows pictures and circles the areas in red.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10694922/iran-plane-crash-ukrainian-airline-black-box/

[msmob]

,,,and the wack job 'theories' begin using The Sun as 'validation' ?   

Perhaps some folks need to heed the words of the Ukrainian President ?

[BillyB]

,,,and the wack job 'theories' begin using The Sun as 'validation' ?   

Perhaps some folks need to heed the words of the Ukrainian President ?

Ukraine President isn't going to speculate. Do you think the video and photos of the plane coming down in a ball of flame and holes in the wing and fuselage were photoshopped by the Sun?

[msmob]

Ukraine President isn't going to speculate. Do you think the video and photos of the plane coming down in a ball of flame and holes in the wing and fuselage were photoshopped by the Sun?

I THINK, Silly BillyB

Readers of The Sun are easily led

[msmob]

However ....

There is more info freely available

FlightRadar24



Flight data from the Ukrainian Airlines Boeing 737-800 is openly available online. It shows that the plane climbed normally after taking-off from Tehran.

It reached nearly 8,000ft (2,400m) before the aircraft's data suddenly disappears.

This is unusual and would suggest some type of catastrophic incident on board the plane. We have no evidence at this stage to tell us what caused the incident.

[BillyB]

Wisely, most passenger flights are currently going around Iran and not over it. Syria still has no passenger flights travelling in their skies. Eastern Ukraine is still being avoided like the plague.

http://www.flightradar24.com/23.81,62.49/4

[jone]

I happen to believe these pictures are real.

[jone]

In a related incident, Iran has withdrawn the statement that the plane crashed due to engine failure.   Iran called the US its enemy and declared it would not share the black boxes with Boeing.  But calls are coming from many international sources, including Iran's allies, for the release of information.   I would be willing to bet that the US knows exactly what happened to that plane and will stay out of any discussions while the water begins to boil in the pot Iran has climbed into.

The easily dismissed lies:  1.) 80 Americans killed in missile strikes  2.) The plane was downed by engine failure - after only three hours from the time it crashed - will play badly for the Iranian leadership.   Meanwhile, Trump can sit back and watch.   Even Pelosi has now tabled the War Powers resolution.

[calmissile]

A few comments about UIA PS752 and the available technical data.
Coincidentally, I just finished doing the install engineering, installation and evaluation of 3 ADS-B systems on 3 warbirds at Chino, Calif airport.  Included a B-25, and P-51,  I forgot the model of the 3rd plane.

Today, I received and evaluated the FAA performance report on the recent flight of the B-25.  It was interesting to note the amount of detail that the FAA ground stations collect and report in their analysis that is transparent to the pilots and the controllers.  There is a huge amount of data collected that indicates the number of bits missing on each transmission, and many other technical errors that the ground stations process in real time.

The purpose of the ADS-B system is not a replacement for the "Black Box" that airliners use to store aircraft performance information.  Nor does it replace ACARS which also collects and transmits a lot of technical info about the aircraft to its owner or operations departments.  ADS-B is a new system added on to the existing transponder function that transmits GPS Location, GPS Airspeed, GPS Position, Aircraft Tail Number, Flight Number, and Barometric Altitude of the aircraft to the ground stations for use by controllers to control flight traffic in controlled airspace.  It also has an anti-collision function if the unit has ADS-B "IN" capability.    Generally, the ADS-B systems will fill in a lot of gaps that current Primary Radars have.

I'll skip the rest of the technical details about the system unless someone asks.

A few comments about the data that has been posted and my attempts to access the raw ADS-B data.

It is far to early to speculate on the cause of the fire and crash but there are many red flags that are suspicious.
1.  The posted video is suspicious.  When you use the trees in the foreground as a reference and follow the 'orange ball', the aircraft changing direction at the speed indicated in the video appears to be beyond what you would expect an aircraft of this size to be able to do.  Big airplanes do not act like a UFO when falling out of the sky.  It is just suspect.
2.  One report that the data stopped immediately after takeoff is false as is indicated by the ADS-B data which shows the transponder producing data for a couple minutes during the climb out.
3.  The altitude data that was posted needs some explaining.  The barometric altitude reported as Zero at the beginning is simply the system initializing.  As soon as the encoding altimeter is turned on and in sync with the ADS-B the correct altitude is reported (field elevation) of about 3K).  The straight line from zero altitude to field elevation is not part of the flight and should be ignored.  The climb out at 2500 - 3000 Feet Per Minutes seems reasonable but I have not looked at the 737 performance specs to confirm.
4.  The instantaneous loss of ADS-B data at about 8000 Ft tells me that there was a catastrophic failure that probably took out all avionics at that instant.  The way the planes are built and the avionics are powered by multiple paths, it is unlikely that an engine explosion or engine fire would have taken out the avionics instantaneously.  It is also noteworthy that the data shows the plane was still in a stable climb when the avionics stopped working.  If an engine fire was the cause of the accident I would have expected to see some samples of position data that would reflect the aircraft orientation changing before the data quit.
5.  The raw data is not available via FlightRadar24.  So there is no way to analyze it.
6.  The most valuable radar data would be the Primary Radar data from the tower or Air Traffic Control.  I assume it is stored at the site like it is in the USA.  Don't know how likely the Iranians would be to release it. 
7.  The photos of the shrapnel holes in the wing may be revealing.  They look very similar to the MH17 shrapnel damage that was part of the MH17 investigation.  In other words they are consistent with a missile exploding outside the airframe.  It is also unlikely that an exploding engine would punch holes in the top of the wing.  When an engine comes apart the vanes usually go through the cowling in a slice fashion rather than creating small holes.  If the photos are genuine, they do raise some red flags that could point to a missile attack much like the MH17 downing.
8.  The black boxes might provide some clues but Iran should turn them over to an international investigative board for analysis.   Only looking at the raw data can provide a decent analysis of what the cause was.
9.  Does Iran have Russian BUK's?

It will be interesting to follow this saga. I am also wondering if there was any ACARS data transmitted to UIA during the climb out.

[BillyB]

3.  The altitude data that was posted needs some explaining.  The barometric altitude reported as Zero at the beginning is simply the system initializing.  As soon as the encoding altimeter is turned on and in sync with the ADS-B the correct altitude is reported (field elevation) of about 3K).  The straight line from zero altitude to field elevation is not part of the flight and should be ignored.  The climb out at 2500 - 3000 Feet Per Minutes seems reasonable but I have not looked at the 737 performance specs to confirm.

Moby's altitude photo starts at zero. Note at the bottom states airport it took off from is over 3,300 ft above sea level.

7.  The photos of the shrapnel holes in the wing may be revealing.  They look very similar to the MH17 shrapnel damage that was part of the MH17 investigation.  In other words they are consistent with a missile exploding outside the airframe.  It is also unlikely that an exploding engine would punch holes in the top of the wing.  When an engine comes apart the vanes usually go through the cowling in a slice fashion rather than creating small holes.  If the photos are genuine, they do raise some red flags that could point to a missile attack much like the MH17 downing.

An engine blowing up can create shrapnel holes on the fuselage. In 2018 a turbine blade broke and shrapnel killed a woman passenger and half her body got sucked out the window. But the vertical stabilizer back at the tail of the Ukrainian plane had at least one hole in it on the side which means that couldn't have been done by an engine on the wing.

8.  The black boxes might provide some clues but Iran should turn them over to an international investigative board for analysis.   Only looking at the raw data can provide a decent analysis of what the cause was.

The black boxes will exonerate Iran. Look for them to release the black boxes soon!

I just finished doing the install engineering, installation and evaluation of 3 ADS-B systems on 3 warbirds at Chino, Calif airport.  Included a B-25, and P-51,  I forgot the model of the 3rd plane.

When will your company give you a promotion to work on more modern planes from the Korean War?

My thoughts about the Ukrainian plane crash is that the Iranian military shot it down by accident. Most of the passengers were Iranian and shooting it down as payback to America makes no sense. If Iran confessed the truth, the world eager for peace and a nuke deal would not punish Iran. But Iran won't confess because it'll make their military look incompetent killing more Iranians than Americans on the Ayatollah designated day of revenge for the Iranian general's death. Add the Iranian deaths of the plane crash with the Iranian deaths at the general's funeral due to lack of crowd control and this whole ordeal has ended badly for Iran.

[calmissile]

When will your company give you a promotion to work on more modern planes from the Korean War?

Well, we do repairs and overhauls on all modern avionics and instruments including the airlines and military.  We are doing this as a favor for the Planes of Fame museum in Chino.  The president of Planes of Fame and the owner of the  P-51 promised me a ride in the P-51.  I have wanted a ride in a P-51 and turned down the only opportunity I had when I owned an Avionics company (was busy with a customer when the offer was made).  If I get a ride as promised, it will make my day...... and then some.   

[msmob]

Moby's altitude photo starts at zero. Note at the bottom states airport it took off from is over 3,300 ft above sea level.

One can always trust our silly BillyB to entertain. ..

[jone]

When will your company give you a promotion to work on more modern planes from the Korean War?

Well, we do repairs and overhauls on all modern avionics and instruments including the airlines and military.  We are doing this as a favor for the Planes of Fame museum in Chino.  The president of Planes of Fame and the owner of the  P-51 promised me a ride in the P-51.  I have wanted a ride in a P-51 and turned down the only opportunity I had when I owned an Avionics company (was busy with a customer when the offer was made).  If I get a ride as promised, it will make my day...... and then some.   

Get a picture.

[GenMish]

P-51 would be a great plane to get a ride in. That's cool you get to work on them.

In the early 90s, people could get rides in MIGs for just a few hundred dollars. That was my backup plan if my trip to the Urals didn't work out. After a few weeks in the Urals, that MIG ride didn't seem very important

[GQBlues]

I just finished doing the install engineering, installation and evaluation of 3 ADS-B systems on 3 warbirds at Chino, Calif airport.  Included a B-25, and P-51,  I forgot the model of the 3rd plane.

Holy Pep Boys parts Batman! Let’s hope he got the proper parts for that third plane!

 

[Chelseaboy]

Downing Street said it is looking into "very concerning " reports about the Tehran airliner crash following speculation in the media that the aircraft was shot down by a missile.

[Patagonie]

I personnaly  believe that a missile got down the plane. It could be a portative sol air missile or a light air to air missile. 

I think Iran is getting more and more embarassed now.
It should remind you a precedent story.

[msmob]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51055219

Iran 'mistakenly shot down Ukraine jet' - US media


US officials say they believe the Ukrainian International Airlines Boeing 737-800 was hit by a missile, CBS says.

[BillyB]

Let’s hope he got the proper parts for that third plane!

When in doubt about make and model, it's a safe bet to use parts made by Sony.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-51055219

Iran 'mistakenly shot down Ukraine jet' - US media


US officials say they believe the Ukrainian International Airlines Boeing 737-800 was hit by a missile, CBS says.

Article also said "Iraqi intelligence official as saying they believed the Ukrainian plane was hit by a Russian-made Tor missile."

Initial anger is directed at Iran if ruled they're at fault but anger will turn towards the Ukrainian government and those in charge of their aviation. As soon as the Iranian general was killed, The FAA in America banned all American planes from flying in Iranian airspace. Ukraine should know better than anybody since a passenger plane was shot down in their country a few years ago during hostilities.

[ML]

A few comments about UIA PS752 and the available technical data.
Coincidentally, I just finished doing the install engineering, installation and evaluation of 3 ADS-B systems on 3 warbirds at Chino, Calif airport.  Included a B-25, and P-51,  I forgot the model of the 3rd plane.

Today, I received and evaluated the FAA performance report on the recent flight of the B-25.  It was interesting to note the amount of detail that the FAA ground stations collect and report in their analysis that is transparent to the pilots and the controllers.  There is a huge amount of data collected that indicates the number of bits missing on each transmission, and many other technical errors that the ground stations process in real time.

The purpose of the ADS-B system is not a replacement for the "Black Box" that airliners use to store aircraft performance information.  Nor does it replace ACARS which also collects and transmits a lot of technical info about the aircraft to its owner or operations departments.  ADS-B is a new system added on to the existing transponder function that transmits GPS Location, GPS Airspeed, GPS Position, Aircraft Tail Number, Flight Number, and Barometric Altitude of the aircraft to the ground stations for use by controllers to control flight traffic in controlled airspace.  It also has an anti-collision function if the unit has ADS-B "IN" capability.    Generally, the ADS-B systems will fill in a lot of gaps that current Primary Radars have.

I'll skip the rest of the technical details about the system unless someone asks.

A few comments about the data that has been posted and my attempts to access the raw ADS-B data.

It is far to early to speculate on the cause of the fire and crash but there are many red flags that are suspicious.
1.  The posted video is suspicious.  When you use the trees in the foreground as a reference and follow the 'orange ball', the aircraft changing direction at the speed indicated in the video appears to be beyond what you would expect an aircraft of this size to be able to do.  Big airplanes do not act like a UFO when falling out of the sky.  It is just suspect.
2.  One report that the data stopped immediately after takeoff is false as is indicated by the ADS-B data which shows the transponder producing data for a couple minutes during the climb out.
3.  The altitude data that was posted needs some explaining.  The barometric altitude reported as Zero at the beginning is simply the system initializing.  As soon as the encoding altimeter is turned on and in sync with the ADS-B the correct altitude is reported (field elevation) of about 3K).  The straight line from zero altitude to field elevation is not part of the flight and should be ignored.  The climb out at 2500 - 3000 Feet Per Minutes seems reasonable but I have not looked at the 737 performance specs to confirm.
4.  The instantaneous loss of ADS-B data at about 8000 Ft tells me that there was a catastrophic failure that probably took out all avionics at that instant.  The way the planes are built and the avionics are powered by multiple paths, it is unlikely that an engine explosion or engine fire would have taken out the avionics instantaneously.  It is also noteworthy that the data shows the plane was still in a stable climb when the avionics stopped working.  If an engine fire was the cause of the accident I would have expected to see some samples of position data that would reflect the aircraft orientation changing before the data quit.
5.  The raw data is not available via FlightRadar24.  So there is no way to analyze it.
6.  The most valuable radar data would be the Primary Radar data from the tower or Air Traffic Control.  I assume it is stored at the site like it is in the USA.  Don't know how likely the Iranians would be to release it. 
7.  The photos of the shrapnel holes in the wing may be revealing.  They look very similar to the MH17 shrapnel damage that was part of the MH17 investigation.  In other words they are consistent with a missile exploding outside the airframe.  It is also unlikely that an exploding engine would punch holes in the top of the wing.  When an engine comes apart the vanes usually go through the cowling in a slice fashion rather than creating small holes.  If the photos are genuine, they do raise some red flags that could point to a missile attack much like the MH17 downing.
8.  The black boxes might provide some clues but Iran should turn them over to an international investigative board for analysis.   Only looking at the raw data can provide a decent analysis of what the cause was.
9.  Does Iran have Russian BUK's?

It will be interesting to follow this saga. I am also wondering if there was any ACARS data transmitted to UIA during the climb out.

Doug, great write-up.
Perhaps local TV station will call you to give your analysis?!