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Author Topic: Coronavirus, how are you preparing for it and how it is affecting you so far?  (Read 106251 times)

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Online GQBlues

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...Europeans infected with COVID-19 are dying at more than twice the rate of Americans  (CFR of 13% vs 6%).
 


One would expect the CFR to be the same.   Why the difference?  ...

LMAO! The last time I did this exercise, those European panties got all tied up their cracks.

Anyway, at this time, it will be difficult to answer this question with absolute certainty. It depends on so many factors such as efficiency of testing and its administration. The more testing is done directly affects CFR. Also depends on how deaths are registered with different countries as they all do this differently. It lacks a universal and uniformed accounting of 'deaths'. Some countries count only the deaths in hospitals, while others conduct post-mortem with deaths outside of hospitals. Spain, apparently, was the only one reportedly doing this. New York for instance, at some point, decided to discontinue registering deaths from nursing homes and their reason was many have died WITH the virus and NOT because of the virus.

In some instances, politics also play a part in the way some countries report their cases, thus 'transparency' is obscured.

A lot of internet idiots sit at their respective confined basements looking at these numbers, clueless at what they're actually looking at, and will start to make silly assertions ignorantly.

I am beginning to agree to get a comparable statistics, 'all-cause of deaths' by COVID should be what every country should do. Which includes suicides and other medical underlying causes not necessarily directly caused by COVID. For example, people who had to wait to get cancer treatments and died 'waiting', etc...because of hospitalization restrictions brought about by the pandemic, etc...

Unfortunately, this may be way too late now, too. Besides, there's still that reality that some infected ( asymptomatic) people did die of causes like accidents, drug overdose, etc...totally unrelated to the virus.

This initial report is a good read regarding this...not some silly 'opinion articles' some latch on as though its the bible.

This even touched on some explanation for Germany's low numbers. Whether true or otherwise won't likely be settled until sometime in the future.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2020, 09:02:38 AM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Online GQBlues

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GQ,

The problem I see with these tracking apps is that those identified as infected should be in quarantine and not bumping around your local marketplace.  China was more of an 'access' type app.  Without the proper barcode, you simply could not enter places such as subways, other transit etc.  More a deterrent for those infected as they were being tracked and probably punished if located outside their designated quarantine area.

Italy considered such an app, but in the end did not make it mandatory.  If numbers start to rise, they may do so.

The way it was explained in the show BC, was that once a person is positive, that person had to quarantine immediately, otherwise the 'government' reacts and makes sure that you do (how it carries that enforcement and to what extent, they didn't go into). You'll still see them in your app, but they will largely be in one place i.e. like apartments or high density dwellings.
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Offline BC

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GQ,

Yes, believe the Chinese app used location, whereas other apps developed only registered two dots connecting for a period of time without registering their location and sent out a message suggesting getting tested after 'contact'.

I think a lot will be done in the future in preparation for the next 'event' to standardize things like when a death counts and not and whether testing is a new test or re-test of an existing case along with gathering more descriptive information about cases that might be helpful with more closely tracking progress.

For now, we're stuck with what we got, knowing only that it kills a lot of people, that you don't want to catch it and a couple of ways to beat the bug at its game.

Online msmob

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Moby,

Deaths are after the fact, even longer than infection rates by 2-3 or more weeks.  Deaths result from what happened a month or more ago.

This is why the figure I watch most is new infections.

BC,

Whilst you are correct re the latency, the stats re deaths ( which I appreciate are as 'accurate' as any nation allows  ..in the case of the UK, the ONS data WILL be accurate ) reflect a VERY sorry tale.

Whilst I'm positive, the UK's population density isn't a help, it tried the 'herd immunity' tactic, until the disgraced Prof ( who didn't follow his own advice ) showed the UK govt how bad it might get ..

LMAO! The last time I did this exercise, those European panties got all tied up their cracks.

..and you got 'reminded' as is Gator, that the US has

1/ historically, a shorter ave. lifespan

2/ Perhaps, that's something to do with the 'underclass' ' inability to get good medical attention ?


The UK govt SCREWED UP re their 'herd immunity experiment' and ( like Sweden) our elderly, in care homes, suffered.

We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

Online GQBlues

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GQ,

Yes, believe the Chinese app used location, whereas other apps developed only registered two dots connecting for a period of time without registering their location and sent out a message suggesting getting tested after 'contact'.

I think a lot will be done in the future in preparation for the next 'event' to standardize things like when a death counts and not and whether testing is a new test or re-test of an existing case along with gathering more descriptive information about cases that might be helpful with more closely tracking progress.

For now, we're stuck with what we got, knowing only that it kills a lot of people, that you don't want to catch it and a couple of ways to beat the bug at its game.

Like all other things, any event that lacks sight and sound, people are prone to be indifferent. War is a good example. This pandemic is certainly not an exception. There seem to be no 'imminent danger' to be taken 'seriously' if people are fed with 'unreliable and/or inconsistent information', or both. Gives each one of us some notion or sense of discarding the danger or of being far away from any 'danger'.

Only when people are either directly involved, or actively witnesses the consequences, such as the app daily warning notification that danger is knocking on our doorsteps, do people tend to comply with the strictest of diligence. 
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Online krimster2

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this is definitely worth a read...
http://medium.com/@indica/covid-underdogs-mongolia-3b0c162427c2

how a country like Mongolia had zero cases...
cuz they weren't stoopid claiming it was a hoax like some others
« Last Edit: May 26, 2020, 12:26:39 PM by krimster2 »

Offline BC

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Only when people are either directly involved, or actively witnesses the consequences, such as the app daily warning notification that danger is knocking on our doorsteps, do people tend to comply with the strictest of diligence.

Good point GQ

Although a bit larger and a third more populated than CA, very 'real' events here really did bring on a healthy case of fear, top to bottom of the boot. I never expected the level of compliance with the lockdown that I witnessed, even here in the south which was less affected...

Offline Gator

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Gator,
This is also not a good comparison. The amount of people tested per country varies greatly due to policies and availability of tests.

Thanks for picking up the challenge.  BC ducked it, dismissing as too many variables.   

Your example of the Dutch testing protocols is a good one, and indeed explains much of the difference.  I asked this very question about testing in an earlier post 

Quote
Could it be that that criteria for whom to test differs between the US and Europe.  If the US is testing more it would detect cases of slight infection, that will recover quickly with little attention.    Could it be that European criteria for testing is for higher body temperature, stronger symptoms?


I dismissed it (tongue-in-cheek) because the American liberals  and media claim Trump is failing because he does not test enough.   :D

If testing is the only difference to explain a 2xCFR, this raises some implications.  It means US testing is twice as effective as Europe in detecting cases of COVID-19.  This says Europe has more undetected cases  (weak symptoms if not asymptomatic).  But if everyone in Europe is obeying lockdown, this would not matter.     

Offline Gator

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how a country like Mongolia had zero cases...
cuz they weren't stoopid claiming it was a hoax like some others

You should built a yurt rather than a tree house.  Or better yet, a yurt in a tree with a yak tethered underneath.   

Offline Gator

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US, well is what it is.  A patchwork quilt of good measures or none.  High number of deaths and again very protracted curve that looks like it could go on forever and ever.





The only things I can draw from all this....




Draw something from this graphic of R0 during lockdown vs. after lockdown.   





An R0 < 1.0 means the disease will diminish. 

Offline Gator

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Another thought came to mind about how to combat the virus and protect as many people as possible.  What about a different approach and instead of trying to isolate the population in general (stay at home), what about isolating the vulnerable and letting the virus take it's course with most recovering with flu symptoms and not even requiring hospitalization?

Doug, as the California economy reopens, people our age must continue to stay on guard even though others are relaxed.  We need to do this until a vaccine is developed. 

The concept of isolating the vulnerable is a good one if implemented correctly.  Consider nursing homes in Florida and New York State.    Florida was more stringent resulting in much fewer nursing home deaths even though Florida's overall lockdown was less stringent.   


Quote
I have my doubts about the effectiveness of mass testing.  With the exception of those medical personnel that treat the most vulnerable, what is the use of testing the public at large?  The idea of contact tracing is ridiculous.


Contact tracing is effective at chasing down the disease if the number of daily new cases of infection is low.   Europe is approaching that level, and the US is far from it.  Contact tracing requires comprehensive questioning and testing of not only the infected, but those with whom they may have contacted, and then the next level of contacts.  Further, it requires enforced quarantining and monitoring.  Not sure Americans will adhere to the restrictions.  The latest Democrat House bill proposed funding the States to hire and train 300,000 contact tracers.  Many $$$ billions and by the time they are rolling out, this disease may be near the end. 


Quote
Perhaps the 'herd immunity' idea while also isolating the people most at risk would be a more practical approach.

Without a vaccine, this is the only option other than a long period of testing-contact tracing-quarantining with some continued elements of lockdown. 


Offline Gator

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Doug I forgot to mention the national dichotomy of whether to stay in lockdown or reopen the economy. 
I doubt you choose the first, given the risks it poses to the economy and our standard of living.    Yet many elect the moral hazard, thinking they will be protected from the consequences of not working by the Federal Government coffers.   

Online krimster2

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"You should built a yurt rather than a tree house.  Or better yet, a yurt in a tree with a yak tethered underneath.   "

a Yak would not do well in Texas, too hot...
a modern yurt is not a bad idea
my preferred livestock are geese and chickens, MUCH less hassle than caring for larger animals
and geese are the best guards ever, they will very audibly announce the presence of any interloper

Online BillyB

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I have my doubts about the effectiveness of mass testing.  With the exception of those medical personnel that treat the most vulnerable, what is the use of testing the public at large?  The idea of contact tracing is ridiculous.  The virus spreads so easily and it has an incubation period of a week or two the test results are already obsolete by the following day.  Trying to contact trace the people that go through any checkout stand at a supermarket is stupid and a waste of time and money.

Perhaps the 'herd immunity' idea while also isolating the people most at risk would be a more practical approach.

You thoughts?


It costs a lot of money to test and the tests aren't very accurate. The moment after someone is determined negative, they can get infected by the next person they pass by. Although testing give experts an idea what is happening so they can take appropriate action, testing alone isn't going to stop the virus. General rule of thumb, the moment a country gets their first case, it takes about 2 months before they need to lock people down so the spread doesn't get out of control. With 35% of the people infected not showing symptoms, it'll be impossible to get everybody infected off the streets since we don't know where they are and they don't know they're infected.

Herd immunity methods shouldn't be discussed until we learn if we have immunity and even if we learn we acquire immunity, how long will it last? Years ago in a SARS test, scientists figured out immunity was possible since antibodies of infected humans remained at a high level for two years and after that antibodies in our body start to significantly decrease. Some monkeys were tested to see if they could get reinfected with SARS COV-2. Some did and some didn't.
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Online GQBlues

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Tomorrow will be huge! Two major events will happen. LA County will begin opening up, including retail and salon/ barber shops AND Space X will finally launch the first NASA administered space travel since 2011 at 2 PM est. Discovery channel will be showing it live.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2020, 09:06:23 PM by GQBlues »
Quote from: msmob
1. Because of 'man', global warming is causing desert and arid areas to suffer long, dry spell.
2. The 2018 Camp Fire and Woolsey California wildfires are forests burning because of global warming.
3. N95 mask will choke you dead after 30 min. of use.

Online BillyB

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CDC says antibody tests are wrong half the time and not good enough to make policy decisions.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/antibody-tests-for-covid-19-wrong-half-the-time-cdc-says/ar-BB14DD2E?ocid=spartanntp


Are Democratic leaders making bad decisions or does the coronavirus prefer to kill Democrats over Republicans? Moral of the story is if you want to significantly increase your chances to live, vote Trump.

http://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-deadliest-where-democrats-live-121518089.html?.tsrc=bell-brknews
Do your part to limit the spread of COVID-19

Online msmob

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CDC says antibody tests are wrong half the time and not good enough to make policy decisions.

Then the US aren't buying the best tests

I'll quote from a Tabloid as you prefer them..

http://www.thesun.co.uk/news/11425350/roche-develops-coronavirus-antibody-test-that-works-available-may/

BREAKTHROUGH Biotech giant Roche ‘develops coronavirus antibody test that WORKS – and it’ll be available in UK by May’

I've seen a guy do a test ( three times ) as he came up positive - never having had symptoms .. So, either the the UK govt has ordered more crap tests ... or ..



We'll be back, EU ..and as a certain 'gentleman' couldn't accept my offer to 'bury the hatchet' .. Don't trust a clueless Californian 'business owner' who cannot even quote me, honestly ..

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One of the reasons Germany is doing well is the mentality of the people. Living close to the border this week I ventured to take our Russian products we hve been missing. Discipline is much higher than in Dutch shops, with everyone wearing masks and keeping distance.Apart from that, the long vaccination program in Germany may have played a role.
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Offline BC

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Draw something from this graphic of R0 during lockdown vs. after lockdown.   



An R0 < 1.0 means the disease will diminish.

Hi Gator,

Searched and searched for the source of this graphic, but could not locate it anywhere at http://www.jpmorgan.com/securities/insights/coronavirus-research

Here's what looks like a good RT tracking site http://rt.live/  and it jives with the level number of new infections. This to be expected if most states are near 1 Use the 'last week' 'two weeks ago' etc feature to see how things are progressing to see which states are going red. 

To give some contrast, here the latest R values for each region in Italy from a few days ago.  Underlined in red are the most affected regions and they correlate with the dramatic drop in new daily cases to only a few hundred. Big difference.  To reach the same level of new infections, the US would have to get below 2000 new cases per day.  It is currently 10 times that, diminishing yes, but very very slowly.  Let's check back at rt.live in a couple of weeks to see what it looks like and if things have improved..


Offline BC

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Gator,

Another interesting feature of rt.live is that it shows when shelter in place was lifted for each state, just hover your pointer over the state graph.  Texas was interesting, with TN and UT following as well.

Beware though, seems the shaded areas indicate the margin of error?


Offline Gator

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Hi Gator,

Searched and searched for the source of this graphic, but could not locate it anywhere at http://www.jpmorgan.com/securities/insights/coronavirus-research


http://imgcdn.larepublica.co/cms/2020/05/21180548/JP-Morgan.pdf


Quote
Here's what looks like a good RT tracking site http://rt.live/  and it jives with the level number of new infections.

You stumped me.  I opened your site, yet I am too stupid to see how they calculate "Rt."  I assume their Rt is  more of an instantaneous value of R0  (calculated just with recent data.  It is more informative than R0 which would include data from the early exponential growth period before pandemic mitigation measures.   

Quote
To give some contrast, here's the latest R values for each region in Italy from a few days ago.  Underlined in red are the most affected regions and they correlate with the dramatic drop in new daily cases to only a few hundred. Big difference.


Excellent!  Congratulations! 


Quote
To reach the same level of new infections, the US would have to get below 2000 new cases per day.  It is currently 10 times that, diminishing yes, but very very slowly. 

Apples and oranges?  With the discussion about why the CFR in Europe is twice the US CFR, even though expected to be the same, we have learned that if Europe testing protocols were applied to the US, US cases would be halved.   There are other variables as you say.  And even if halved, we are still not close to Italy's success.   



Quote
Let's check back at rt.live in a couple of weeks to see what it looks like and if things have improved..

Yes.  Things change quickly.

Offline Gator

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Gator,

Another interesting feature of rt.live is that it shows when shelter in place was lifted for each state, just hover your pointer over the state graph.  Texas was interesting, with TN and UT following as well.

Beware though, seems the shaded areas indicate the margin of error?




Stumped again.  Your Rt graph shows the opposite of the Rt graph from this source:

http://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/00_Overlay

Click on MY STATE in top margin.....click on Texas in left margin....look at chart to the right. 

Crowded display, yet it shows Rt declining from 1.074 in late March to 0.87 on May 14.

How can two seemingly scientific sources report opposite findings for the same variable???????????  The method for calculating Rt must differ between the two sources.   Or did one get the dates reversed?  Above my pay grade ($0) to explain how. 

After reopening, I would expect infections to increase as per your graph.  Which is exactly what happened in Florida using my source, increasing from 0.88 on April 8 to  0.91 on May 15. 

 

« Last Edit: May 27, 2020, 08:27:27 AM by Gator »

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http://imgcdn.larepublica.co/cms/2020/05/21180548/JP-Morgan.pdf

It says what you said it says and that's about all I can say about that ;)  I know when most countries here locked down and can see the charts for each.  Infections declined thereafter and kept on declining further after lockdowns were listed so I haven't a clue how this guy figured otherwise.  Note the 'vast majority of countries' graph did not indicate which countries the dots represent.  But ok, neither here nor there.


Quote
You stumped me.  I opened your site, yet I am too stupid to see how they calculate "Rt."  I assume their Rt is  more of an instantaneous value of R0  (calculated just with recent data.  It is more informative than R0 which would include data from the early exponential growth period before pandemic mitigation measures.
   

I assume Rt is what we've been discussing all along, can be one number today, another tomorrow. :)  R0 would be the final determined value that we could calculate some time after this 'event'.
 

Quote
Excellent!  Congratulations! 

Just wish I could say the same for folks back 'home'.


Quote
Apples and oranges?  With the discussion about why the CFR in Europe is twice the US CFR, even though expected to be the same, we have learned that if Europe testing protocols were applied to the US, US cases would be halved.   There are other variables as you say.  And even if halved, we are still not close to Italy's success.
 

Not really.  The game is to get daily infection numbers down far enough so that tracking and tracing can be effectively handled to rout out the rest of folks that are still infective.  At this time a good number of those 'exposed' from this process have been asymptomatic. Progress and confidence growing rapidly with the next phase toward 'new normal' planned for 3 June.


Quote
Yes.  Things change quickly.

Indeed.

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Stumped again.   
 

The margin of error is pretty wide and nothing at this point absolute - again too many variables ;)

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