Afghanistan

[Trenchcoat]

Here is the Afghan Army version of why it all fell apart:

http://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/25/opinion/afghanistan-taliban-army.html

Essentially they were set up as a modern western fighting army but then had all access necessary to support & maintain a modern western style army cut off. So a lot of their technically superior weapons became useless pretty quickly as all the contractors that helped service & maintain that equipment were pulled.

Other reasons also but that appears to be the main one so setting them up as a modern western army seems to have been a big mistake.

That said the Taliban must have a big support base to grow in number as it has done while most Afghans haven't taken up arms against them en-mass. The Afghan government have 20 years & a lot of money to get organised for this eventuality and failed miserably. It does appear though that setting up a more basic serviceable Afghan military is what should have happened in the first place here.

[Boethius]

North Vietnam entered as liberators of their brothers, not as conquerors.  There was no revenge.  Young people still lined up and participated in communist style rallies.   

It could be a place for a Westerner to live today.  Not for me, yet the serenity of Laos was appealing.

Over 800,000 Vietnamese took to boats to escape the communists.  Between 500,000 and 1,000,000 Vietnamese who remained were sent to "re-education camps" (meaning, prisons) by the communists.  That doesn't sound like there was no revenge, or that they were hailed as liberators.

I would put no store in rallies.  They are specatacles.

I have a friend who is married to a Vietnamese woman.  I just had coffee with him yesterday.  He and his wife spend part of their winter in Vietnam.  He told me there is still crushing poverty.  He also said everyone there knows the government is corrupt and they cannot rely on it for anything.

[2tallbill]

North Vietnam entered as liberators of their brothers, not as conquerors. 
There was no revenge.  Young people still lined up and participated in
communist style rallies.   

It could be a place for a Westerner to live today.  Not for me, yet the
serenity of Laos was appealing.

Hahahaha! You are joking


Between 1 to 2.5 million South Vietnamese were captured and moved to “re-education camps”.
These “Re-education camps” were described like prison camps where people had to do hard
physical work, some of it were very dangerous such as minefield sweeping.

Although a lot of people died while working, starvation and disease were the major causes
of death. An estimated 165,000 prisoners died in those re-education camps.

“New Economic Zones” was another program implemented by the communist government
in the aftermath of the war. 1 million Southern Vietnamese were forcibly relocated to
uninhabited mountainous forested areas. 

It is estimated that between 20,000 and 155,000 Vietnamese died performing hard labor
in these “New Economic Zones”.

An estimated of 200,000-400,000 boat people out of around 2 millions that fled died at sea.


Source
http://thevietnamwar.info/what-happened-after-the-vietnam-war/


"By 1979, civilians in Vietnamese cities were subject to food rationing. Most
received a paltry two kilograms of rice and 200 grams of meat each per month."

Less than half a pound of meat per month and less than 5 pounds of rice per month
It must have been paradise!!

http://alphahistory.com/vietnamwar/post-war-vietnam/#Purges_and_re-education

[GQBlues]

August 31 will be an interesting day to learn if the air lift is as effective as the Biden admin claims.

It most definitely will be. Not only for the situation in Afghanistan, but it also marks the 90th day for Biden to tell the public the result of the Intelligence investigation of the lab leak allegations.

As with Afghanistan, I'm not putting too much stock with our current *intelligence* proficiency. Like NATO & the UN, I hope we find it in our collective hearts to stop funding these institutions along with the CIA.

[BillyB]

After the Vietnamese Communists took over, my aunts and uncles in Saigon were jailed, sometimes beat. When they were allowed to shower, they were given a cup of water. They were fed rotten rice everyday. They might get a piece of meat on holidays. When they came to America, I was 14 yo and when they seen my remote control car, they said a person would get arresting in Vietnam if they had that kind of technology.


After the Vietnam war, the Vietnamese Communist invaded Cambodia and went to war against China. Vietnamese couldn't catch a break. Fortunately they later embraced Capitalism as it helped rebuild the country.


I'm willing to bet the Vietnamese after America left had it better than the Afghans will. Taliban is already knocking on doors and reviewing people's phones to see if they have a Christian app or anything else they'd disapprove of. I remember an Afghan I know in America telling me when he lived there before 9/11 they'd routinely stop soccer games so they'd have an audience while they start chopping off hands, feet, and heads of people who allegedly committed crimes.

[tfcrew]

I did get information about the term Gen. Milley kept using *Americans who desires to leave*. Many are actually dual-citizens and who had already announced preferring to stay in Afghanistan. Rightly or wrongly, these people are making their own choices.

Many are actually dual-citizens and who had already announced preferring to stay in Afghanistan.

I don't believe that.
Actually, the choice involves more than that. After all who would willingly stay in that environment? Facts are that many Americans are distressed because when they leave ...  certain death awaits their Afghan partners who can't. Of course the politicians with their sacks all tucked in can live with that can't they?

When you have to choose an ~either/or~ it is really not much of a choice is it? A real choice would involve other options.

[tfcrew]

Also....there were Americans who were stranded in various other parts of the country. How are they supposed to get to Kabul?

[tfcrew]

I did get information about the term Gen. Milley kept using *Americans who desires to leave*. Many are actually dual-citizens and who had already announced preferring to stay in Afghanistan. Rightly or wrongly, these people are making their own choices.

I will qualify by stating that reports are that those who can leave are staying behind because their immediate family are not allowed to leave.
One might call that a preference but I wouldn't.

[BC]

Blinken added that U.S. forces have an arrangement with the Taliban to facilitate departure of those who want to leave even after the August 31 deadline for U.S. military withdrawal.

“The Taliban have made public and private commitments to provide and permit safe passage for Americans… and Afghans at risk going forward, past August 31,” he said.

http://news.yahoo.com/state-department-reveals-number-americans-180535648.html

[GQBlues]

I don't believe that.
Actually, the choice involves more than that. After all who would willingly stay in that environment? Facts are that many Americans are distressed because when they leave ...  certain death awaits their Afghan partners who can't. Of course the politicians with their sacks all tucked in can live with that can't they?

Who really knows with absolute certainty.

The administration believes many of the 1,000 who are currently unaccounted for may be dual citizens of the United States and Afghanistan.

...the U.S. has evacuated 4,500 U.S. passport holders since Aug. 14 out of 6,000 Americans the State Department believes were in Afghanistan at that time. The department is “aggressively reaching out” to the other 1,000 Americans in Afghanistan but said many of them may not want to leave.

When you have to choose an ~either/or~ it is really not much of a choice is it? A real choice would involve other options.

It depends. For Afghanistan, one of the choices available opens up to a multitude of options. It doesn't have to be USA v Afghanistan.

In terms of just the general 'either/or', no argument there, which is largely my point in the WMVM v WOVO debate. One can't make a right choice if there were no choices to begin. But this really isn't the thread for that, eh?

[Gator]

What will change for many is the loss of a good paycheck.

The biggest "paychecks" were stolen by corrupt Afghan leaders (e. g. pocketing salaries for "ghost battalions").  The top tier interpreters and local workers for US AID certainly made a better living, yet they are now trying to get out if they have not already left.  Some US expenditures surely made its way into the Afghan economy.  Yet the majority of villagers saw none of this.   
 

How do you think that will change things on the ground there for the common folk?  Radicalism gains a good foothold when making a living gets tough.

The urban economies will suffer, yet the villages will be the same. Poppy growers may even see a revival.   

Radicalism?  Is this not shariah law? The Taliban drew its support from the impoverished villages where shariah law has been practiced for a thousand years.     

So Afghan life will be like what I saw when travelling there 35 years ago, a village agrarian life,  which was not too far removed from life a thousand years ago.  Not a world for women. 

Sort of makes sense why the army fell apart.  Can't eat idealism.

The idealism was in the minds of the US State Dept and the DoD and maybe a military-industrial complex.  As I mentioned before, a national army never made sense, especially with corrupt Afghan generals.  We should have selected warlords and just paid them.  They would have spent the money more efficiently.

[Gator]

Over 800,000 Vietnamese took to boats to escape the communists.

Carrying the parents of my current dentist.  Many of Vietnam's best escaped and became a productive part of America.   That and embargos slowed the transformation of Vietnam.

Between 500,000 and 1,000,000 Vietnamese who remained were sent to "re-education camps" (meaning, prisons) by the communists.  That doesn't sound like there was no revenge, or that they were hailed as liberators.

   

They were not Kmer Rouge, and in fact did Commie Vietnam not oust Pol Pot and stop his atrocities.

I have a friend who is married to a Vietnamese woman.  I just had coffee with him yesterday.  He and his wife spend part of their winter in Vietnam.  He told me there is still crushing poverty.  He also said everyone there knows the government is corrupt and they cannot rely on it for anything.

Not what I saw, nor my dentist who returns to Vietnam every year for a holiday and business investment.

From the World Bank,

Vietnam's shift from a centrally planned to a market economy has transformed the country from one of the poorest in the world into a lower middle-income country. Vietnam now is one of the most dynamic emerging countries in East Asia region.

[Gator]

After the Vietnam war, the Vietnamese Communist invaded Cambodia and went to war against China. Vietnamese couldn't catch a break. Fortunately they later embraced Capitalism as it helped rebuild the country.

As I commented above.

I'm willing to bet the Vietnamese after America left had it better than the Afghans will.

This is the worrisome part.  In a civil war, one side wins and the other side suffers.    The Taliban strategy is similar to what Mao accomplished against Chiang Kai-shek.  Mao controlled the rural areas and Chiang Kai-shek the cities.  Mao encircled the cities.  Chiang forces resisted but were vastly outnumbered and had to retrast.

Key differences.  Unlike Mao's forces, the Afghani army outnumbered the Taliban.   Unlike Chiang Kai-shek, Ashraf Ghani had no Taiwan to escape to with his modern thinking Afhani followers. So he fled to live on his own with millions stolen from Afghan coffers. 

[BC]

The idealism was in the minds of the US State Dept and the DoD and maybe a military-industrial complex.  As I mentioned before, a national army never made sense, especially with corrupt Afghan generals.  We should have selected warlords and just paid them.  They would have spent the money more efficiently.

Wasn't that the US strategy in USSR days?  Will the US taxpayer be on the hook for some time to come reverting to a similar strategy against ISIS-K and whatever follows?

[Gator]

“The Taliban have made public and private commitments to provide and permit safe passage for Americans… and Afghans at risk going forward, past August 31,”

Let us hope this is the case for stranded Americans and the so called kinder and gentler verison of today's Taliban.    Nevertheless, Biden's execution of the withdrawal was fraught with mistake after mistake.  It needlessly placed many Americans in harm's way.  Something really diastrous could have happened, and still could. 

[GQBlues]

Let us hope this is the case for stranded Americans and the so called kinder and gentler verison of today's Taliban.    Nevertheless, Biden's execution of the withdrawal was fraught with mistake after mistake.  It needlessly placed many Americans in harm's way.  Something really diastrous could have happened, and still could.

Curious why you think Biden carry full responsibility on the withdrawal? After all, the deal was 14 (17 Post-5/1 to 8/31 extension) months old and everyone knew, been advised, or should've been aware that there will be US/Coalition troop number draw down with a target date of May 1st.

They've been repeatedly told to leave. Not that they had to be told at all...

Finally, a timeline

Nov. 17, 2020 — Acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller formally announces that the U.S. will reduce U.S. forces in Afghanistan to 2,500 by Jan. 15, 2021.

LMAO. 5 days before the inauguration!!!

[Gator]

Wasn't that the US strategy in USSR days? 

That was the two largest military forces in the world facing each other for world domination.    Afgahnistan was suppose to be about eliminating threats of terrorist attacks.  We accomplished that quickly, then decided to change the strategy and stay for 20 years.

Will the US taxpayer be on the hook for some time to come reverting to a similar strategy against ISIS-K and whatever follows?

They will be back.   If Taliban supports them, we could always do the decapitation tactic, i. e.  Soleimani (which happened not long before Trump started negotiating with the Taliban).  Or do that other thing - dropping another MOAB (mother of all bombs).  he he

Who knows, with our pervious border maybe some ISIS members have already entered the US and are now planning strikes.

[Gator]

Curious why you think Biden carry full responsibility on the withdrawal? After all, the deal was 14 (17 Post-5/1 to 8/31 extension) months old and everyone knew, been advised, or should've been aware that there will be US/Coalition troop number draw down with a target date of May 1st.


They've been repeatedly told to leave. Not that they had to be told at all...

America agrees with the decision to withdraw.  It is the execution of the actual withdrawal where I point blame at Biden and whoever was persuading him.


We have been in a withdrawal for 10 years, so our intent was obvious.   Our troop levels had dwindled from 110,000 in 2011 to around 10,000 in 2015.  And Trump eventually took the levels down to 2,500 or so.  America's direction was clear for more than 14 months, although there was debate about maintaining a small presence for years.   

Who knows how Trump would have handled the actual withdrawal?  I can not believe it would have been as chaotic.  The Taliban leaders knew Trump would  assassinate them if Americans were killed.  Perhaps Biden is telling them the same, although Biden does not have any scalps such as Solemani hanging from his chest. 

While no Americans have been killed, we have lost tons of sophisticated weaponry.  Plus, we certainly  don't look like a superpower. 

[BC]

Gator,
big bang, but not a lot of bang for the buck with MOAB's, about half the cost of a B61 nuke@15million or so.

Last one killed only 34 or so?

[BC]

America agrees with the decision to withdraw.  It is the execution of the actual withdrawal where I point blame at Biden and whoever was persuading him.

Success or failure can only be measured when we're out.  As for equipment and such, seems much was taken out already.  I doubt anything really sensitive was left behind, likely already stripped and shipped, or disabled/destroyed. 

[GQBlues]

America agrees with the decision to withdraw.  It is the execution of the actual withdrawal where I point blame at Biden and whoever was persuading him.


We have been in a withdrawal for 10 years, so our intent was obvious.   Our troop levels had dwindled from 110,000 in 2011 to around 10,000 in 2015.  And Trump eventually took the levels down to 2,500 or so.  America's direction was clear for more than 14 months, although there was debate about maintaining a small presence for years.   

Who knows how Trump would have handled the actual withdrawal?  I can not believe it would have been as chaotic.  The Taliban leaders knew Trump would  assassinate them if Americans were killed.  Perhaps Biden is telling them the same, although Biden does not have any scalps such as Solemani hanging from his chest. 

While no Americans have been killed, we have lost tons of sophisticated weaponry.  Plus, we certainly  don't look like a superpower.

There's a good illustration of the timeline since the Doha Agreement. My point is not about which POTUS should be held responsible, but the point why the non-military personnel not hasten to leave the country knowing what was, and is, happening in-country. That's 14-17 long months to bug out.

Further, intentionally cutting down the troop level to 2,500 mid-January (that's half the number of the released Taliban/ISIL-K/Al Qaeda fighters that went back to battle), 5 months BEFORE the Doha deal was agreed upon, despite repeated warnings from the State Department and Pentagon. The Talibans not only kept up the violence, and that it is being aided by Al-Qaeda (Both of which clearly violated the peace deal, yet Trump forged with the order anyway. Why?).

[fathertime]

 

While no Americans have been killed, we have lost tons of sophisticated weaponry.  Plus, we certainly  don't look like a superpower.

I doubt the weaponry was overly sophisticated.   
Maybe we aren't a superpower like we used to be.  The world is catching up.

Fathertime! 

[2tallbill]

Curious why you think Biden carry full responsibility on the withdrawal? After all, the
deal was 14 (17 Post-5/1 to 8/31 extension) months old and everyone knew, been
advised, or should've been aware that there will be US/Coalition troop number draw
down with a target date of May 1st.

They've been repeatedly told to leave. Not that they had to be told at all...

99.98% of the Americans in Afghanistan were paid by the US government or
by contracts with the US government. Biden is in charge and he should have
been more organized. Biden is rightfully blamed.

The left usually has good intentions, they need to be held accountable when
their good intentions are spoiled by their incompetence and by their actions.

[GQBlues]

99.98% of the Americans in Afghanistan were paid by the US government or
by contracts with the US government.

Good. I'm glad you said that. All the more reason they should've left over the 14 months considering their employer had urged them, if not downright command, they need to leave.

The small number of 'American' civilians in-country, beyond the dual-passport holding Americans, are mostly 'hired' elite security force used to assist the military during the waning days of the withdrawal. Why they are there still is explained in the link I posted below.

Biden is in charge and he should have been more organized. Biden is rightfully blamed.

Trump left little, if not downright 'none', left to organize in a country besieged by civil war. His administration shunned the very government we 'financed' and created to negotiate peace in *their* country.

I'm one of Biden's fiercest critic, from the border crisis to his stupid COVID mandates and musings of total censorship. His stupid VP is even worst!! That viral video of her laughing when asked about the crisis in Afghanistan by a reporter is enough to really make you wonder how many idiotic Americans there are in the US to actually vote for these two.

But having witnessed the nation and the fake news media the past 5 years gives anyone a glimpse of how whacked our country and government had become. We desperately need a serious overhaul as a nation. Unlike seemingly what many of you and Americans do these days, my perspectives aren't driven by the daily fake news feed the media throws as bait and chum on the water.

Sure, in clear view, Biden is the one that fumbled the ball at the goal line. That's easy enough. But anyone who doesn't just digest the daily installment of fake news about this crisis would easily understand that Trump is as much at fault, if not downright at fault, of this fumbled situation. Trump, for whatever stupid reason he had, actually signed a memo - eventually an executive order - to completely withdraw all military personnel from Afghanistan, and other hot spots in the world, after the election result was finalized. He ordered total withdrawal from Afghanistan Christmas 2020!! The dude turned into an incredibly buffooned, vindictive lunatic! In his desperate attempt to stamp some notion of a legacy in his presidency, he resorted to an action nestled between maniacal - mercurial.

The left usually has good intentions, they need to be held accountable when
their good intentions are spoiled by their incompetence and by their actions.

I'm an American first before any of my political belief and conviction, much less affiliation. Both Republican and Democrat president had their filthy hands in this war and country.

If you really want to pin the fault of how and why situations like we have in Afghanistan today, look no further than you, me and all of us. All in our silly partisan hacking ways do we constantly sink in the mess we perpetually create for ourselves. WE are the ones that put lunatics, all of them, in power to play the games they do in our world today.

I would urge to read this:

http://www.axios.com/off-the-rails-trump-military-withdraw-afghanistan-5717012a-d55d-4819-a79f-805d5eb3c6e2.html

It details many of the interaction between Trump's administration, the Pentagon, and our military complex generals. From Mattis to Milley.

It also exposed the myth that Trump told the Talibans that if they *harmed any Americans that they will be hit so hard like they've never been hit before*. That never happened.

The fault in all of this, and everything that's currently happening to us, is the silliness Americans mired themselves with misguided, entitled tribalism that further divides our nation farther apart every gawd-damned day!

[2tallbill]

Gator,
big bang, but not a lot of bang for the buck with MOAB's, about half the cost of a B61 nuke@15million or so.

Last one killed only 34 or so?

To people who don't know how to read and don't use toilet paper
it's very impressive and very scary. These are people who don't
have a single pilot in their armed forces, they believe driving with
the lights off saves gas. They are not very sophisticated.

With thugs, being scary is an effective deterrent