US Economy

[Trenchcoat]

From stuff I've seen around it looks like things may be starting to get tough in the US economy. I'm increasingly seeing more and more posts on LinkedIn mainly from Americans who have been laid off and finding it tough to get another job. These are of course more professional jobs than the basic run of the mill jobs, I don't know his things are there. Here is a recent BBC article on the subject, seems that many fear the impact Trumps tariffs may have:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceqjpn3n50go.amp

I kind of always feel bad for my generation, Generation X and even Millennials in with that. The focus when younger was always towards getting on in Education. If you did that then the theory was that everything else would then fall into place, a partner, etc. I think though for too few it worked that way. Many even after they completed the education found themselves in a swamped field with others with the same idea handed to them by society, the education system, parents, etc. Now it seems that many may be on the verge of losing their professional career type of jobs and getting a tough time of it.

I think a lot of people concentrated on study a lot thinking it would deliver for them and lost out in terms of ability to date. Since it's not easy to date when your studies are taking up so long and others likewise are in a similar situation. So in general less people date in that situation. Life is all too often very sad I think.

[krimster2]

La Chinoise glyphs for "crisis"
can be translated as "danger" and "opportunity"
however, some translate it as "danger" and "move in with parents"

OTOH, I've ALWAYS been an opportunist
who understood the necessity of creating yur own opportunities
instead of passively waiting for them

didja ever have a sidewalk schitzo like me tell ya about "history" as ya walked past him?
well...certain aspects of history, tends to repeat itself in patterns, often involving periods of rise and fall, rather than a linear progression...like the ebb and flow of the tide
before the topic veered into UFOs and gravimetric propulsion and string theory

krimster's prophecy
we be goin from the 'roaring 20s' to 'duh depression'
and then on to the 'big war'
we be goin from Weimar to Nationalist Socialist
and when that's all over
we switch directions and we go full Bolshevik

the writing on the wall
Babylon...she gonna fall...

the Babylonian gardens were once the most beautful in the world
today they're just mounds of rocks and sand with a few goats chewing weeds

daylight come and me 'wan go home

PS
also, the "Death of Sofware" took everyone by surprise at it's sudden unexpected arrival
no one EVER expects The Spanish Inquisition" or the Death of Software
90% of software engineers will be looking for a new field with all the other unemployed

over time, AI will eat lots of jobs
but not increase overall GDP productivity
AI is Capital's Ally to control Labor cost
and inflation is Capital's taxation of labor

Thoreau argues that individuals should prioritize their conscience over compliance, asserting that passive submission to government authority enables injustice.
my conscience dictates that I resist the Fascist takeover of the USA
by any means necessary
just like Ukrainians

[Trenchcoat]

La Chinoise glyphs for "crisis"
can be translated as "danger" and "opportunity"
however, some translate it as "danger" and "move in with parents"

OTOH, I've ALWAYS been an opportunist
who understood the necessity of creating yur own opportunities
instead of passively waiting for them

didja ever have a sidewalk schitzo like me tell ya about "history" as ya walked past him?
well...certain aspects of history, tends to repeat itself in patterns, often involving periods of rise and fall, rather than a linear progression...
before the topic veered into UFOs and gravimetric propulsion

krimster's prophecy
we be goin from the 'roaring 20s' to 'duh depression'
and then on to the 'big war'
we be goin from Weimar to Nationalist Socialist
and when that's all over
we switch directions and we go full Bolshevik

the writing on the wall
Babylon...she gonna fall...

the Babylonian gardens were once the most beautful in the world
today they're just mounds of rocks and sand with a few goats chewing weeds

daylight come and me 'wan go home

It looks like that part of your prophecy may be in the verge of becoming true Krim. If people in the US scale back and batten down the hatches then spending becomes a lot less, Employers start to lay staff off as revenue and profits start to fail and the cycle potentially snowballs getting worse and worse.

Old saying used to be that when the US sneezes the UK/Europe catches the cold. So the UK/Europe could soon follow in a recession/depression. Once Employers get in the habit of firing staff they usually all like to follow suit almost like it's the newest must follow trend. Few can ever really say their job is safe in such a situation, many that think their job is safe find out it is not so. So I wouldn't say I've got a safe job but I would say that my job potentially if I am lucky isn't possibly so prone to lay off as it's not on the face if it at full exposure to corporate forces and headwind. It's a fairly low pay job but in a recession/depression even that can be a big bonus compared to no job, virtually no income and a big step down all of a sudden from earning high money onto unemployment benefit.

My guess is that we are just at the start of that recession/depression in the US. That Americans there will all be reducing their spending over the next few months and that layoffs will start to gather pace particularly as we go into Summer and then to Autumn & Winter this year. Next year, 2026 I guess probably just as bad if not worse than this year. I hope that the recession/depression scenario that looks on the cards now doesn't come true as it can be really miserable, but it looks like it's starting to come true already from early signs out there.

War I can see happening in the future against Russia, China, North Korea and Iran axis with them grouped together against the US, UK, Australia, Europe, etc. Again I am very much hoping that doesn't come true as it would be horrific and potentially very few to no one nay be safe depending on who they are, where they are and circumstance. Hopefully I will be judged as too old then and will have buggered off to anywhere away from it all, if there is anywhere. I really can't be bothered with all that war stuff.

[ML]

Leftist Economist John Kenneth Galbraith was famous for predicting 10 of last 2 (in his time frame) recessions.  If you predict enough, some of your predictions will come true . . . and he well knew this.

Good quotes of his:  "The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable" and "Economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists."

[krimster2]

The Great Crash is still worth reading, despite it being written before I was born...
you can find an online PDF of the book
the 2008 crash was similar to the '29 one...driven from over-speculation (and wasn't caused by trans-sexuals, mexican bandits, or communists...no, it was Wall Street)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Crash,_1929

In American Capitalism:  published in 1952, Galbraith concluded that the American economy was managed by a triumvirate of big business, big labor, and an activist government.
but in 2025
big labor is dead
activist government is dead
so it basicly leaves "Big Business" and Elon Musk to control the economy

not at all hard to predict what will happen...
the next crash will start with 'crypto' then spread to all other assets

I am selling all my US real estate as soon as possible (very tedious)
to try and get ahead of the coming crash

I put a lot of $$$ into precious metals...and that paid off
kreuger Rands and $20 gold pieces are EASY to barter with and not leave ANY paper trail
10 Kreuger Rands can buy you a basic car
while silver bars and silver dollars are perfect for every day grocery barter in a post-dollar collapse economy in the coming decade

Russian relatives told me about "the sense of disbelief they felt" after seeing 100 Ruble notes blowing down the street after the collapse of the Soviet Union
and not even "Bumzhee" would pick them up, cuz it's really NOT all thet great to wipe yur ass with compared to crumpled up newspaper, which they'd immediately snatch up to stockpile

during Covid, I loved throwing rolls of toilette paper out the car window in a walmart parking lot, to watch people fight over it
good times...

Tesla vrs undocumented immigrants

in 2022, Tesla pain NO corporate income tax
http://itep.org/tesla-reported-zero-federal-income-tax-in-2024/

while in 2022, undocumented immigrants paid almost $100 billion
http://itep.org/undocumented-immigrants-taxes-2024/

what worries Trump and Musk is that if immigrants are given a pathway to legal status
they'll likely vote Democrat, and that's an existential threat to Republicans and oligarch control of the economy

they have to convice poor whites to not ally themselves with other races, ethnicities to oppose rule by oligarchy
so they use racism, etc...
white southerners were always willing to die for 'massa
so long as the war is about race and not money
and 'massa was the leading reason why southern white folks was so poor

and in 150 years since then...
not a damn thing has changed

[Trenchcoat]

Recall this from my study of History days, so here's my offering:

http://amzn.eu/d/5jCo8cp

http://onlinebooks.library.upenn.edu/webbin/book/lookupname?key=Newbold%2C J. T. Walton (John Turner Walton)%2C 1888-

Don't know why it has always stuck in the back of my mind. I don't really bother with a lot of history stuff these days. I was intrigued by it when I was younger but history has worn off me a bit over time. To be honest I probably spent too long on it and should have probably learnt other stuff instead. Seemed a good idea at the time but there we go.

At the moment I digg think there is a lot I can do to respond to any sh*t on the horizon, just me being aware it is probably on the horizon and not to overcommit to anything too much. Sometimes it's not so possible to avoid sh*t, sometimes it is, sometimes it's a case of happily being not in sh*ts way to start with and sometimes better not to make any move in case it just lands you in the sh*t whereas otherwise you might not have been 🤔

[krimster2]

LOL YES!
written 10 years before the crash he 'predicted'
whenever there are dark clouds and thunder, I predict a storm

his thesis...the disequilibrium caused by WWI, would lead to the exceeses of the 20s, which would then lead to the crash of the 30s

get it here - for free!
http://archive.org/details/comingcrashecono00newb/page/4/mode/2up

this web site is a literal gold mine of information
any ignorant rednecks could start reading here and get a REAL EDUCATION
but none of them will...cuz listening to Fox doesn't over tax their widdle brains like reading would

pretty much EVERY financial panic and depression is caused by a combination of economic disequilibriums and over speculation
which the RIGHT will find a scapgoat for instead...in Germany, it was the Jews
in America, it's Mexicans who threaten the Republican status quo
yeah...right...it's NEVER industrial profiteering or banks...no it's those damned transexuals!!!!
and this works SO WELL
cuz every MAGA voter is a caricature of "Archie Bunker" who was an illiterate dufus created for the TV audience to make fun of

the father of lies, is ALWAYS  the originator of all falsehood and deception
to be used to cheat his way to a victory he could never earn on his own
Putin, Trump, Musk are all deceivers
even the Trump Bible is a deception, like Trump's religious beliefs
Trump's actual religion is to worship himself just like Elon and Putin do

the concept of a "triune God" or the Trinity in Christianity refers to the belief that there is one God
who exists in three co-eternal, co-equal, and co-essential persons: the Father, the Son, and the Holy Spirit.

what an antquated idea...
as the new 21st century schzoid Triune ANTI-CHRIST GOD of GREED
is Putin the father, Trump the son, and Elon The Holy Spirit

let he who is without sin, get stoned

[Trenchcoat]

LOL YES!
written 10 years before the crash he 'predicted'
whenever there are dark clouds and thunder, I predict a storm

his thesis...the disequilibrium caused by WWI, would lead to the exceeses of the 20s, which would then lead to the crash of the 30s

get it here - for free!
http://archive.org/details/comingcrashecono00newb/page/4/mode/2up

this web site is a literal gold mine of information
any ignorant rednecks could start reading here and get a REAL EDUCATION
but none of them will...cuz listening to Fox doesn't over tax their widdle brains like reading would

pretty much EVERY financial panic and depression is caused by a combination of economic disequilibriums and over speculation
which the RIGHT will find a scapgoat for instead...in Germany, it was the Jews
in America, it's Mexicans who threaten the Republican status quo
yeah...right...it's NEVER industrial profiteering or banks...no it's those damned transexuals!!!!
and this works SO WELL

I came upon this piece of work while at the Labour Party Archives at the time  in Manchester while I was doing my uni dissertation. It was an interesting title and I found it curious that someone actually managed to accurately predict a crash before it happened by as you say Krim about a decade. I think you are right though that the signs are there well in advance if you are tuned into knowing what to look for.

So you are right a great piece of work of its time. The Labour Party Archive in Manchester wasn't too bad. First time I had ever been to Manchester. The real bad ones were usually the local County Council Archives, you spend a day in them and even as a young guy in your twenties you'll come out feeling that you've aged to about 90 in the space of one day lol. So many old peeps in there, it's kind of their retirement activity lol. I guess if it takes their mind of the inevitable and makes them content then for them it is not so bad. For a young guy it's not really the place to be, fortunately only spent the occasional day here and there in those Archives. I liked History and still do a bit but as said before not the best choice. I should have let go of the subject at A'level or even GCSE. It has it's merits but isn't usually a big financial winner. For a young guy as I was at the time I should have explored other options but History was something I was happy and familiar with at the time and I was just looking for a steady time in life.

Anyhow, judging from LinkedIn the news on the jobs front seems to be increasingly pessimistic and gloomy out there in the US. Many people now bemoaning in there about being laid off, struggling to find a new job, not much out there, not getting much joy, finding it hard to even get a look in, about how to go about job hunting, interviews, etc. It all seems to be turning bad so quickly and it looks like this could be very early days. A lot of these people as in the UK have invested their entire lives into their careers and it's become everything of who they are so it's very tough and unfortunate for them as it's literally their whole world talking apart around them and the prospect for many unfortunately for them looks bleak. I don't take any joy in any of their misfortune, it really does look like tough times are coming and it's not going to be at all pretty. What is happening out there at the moment in the Jobs market can happen to anyone so the axe will literally likely be wielded ruthlessly and widely should things continue the way they seem to be going, good luck all🤞

[Trenchcoat]

I think in more recent times the situation of Greece is probably quite compelling to the situation the US and many European economies may find themselves in. The Greek Government overspent by a long way, borrowing way too much money that it could probably never pay back. However it's big problem was that it had joined up to the Euro so it couldn't devalue the Euro to pay off it's debt as only the EU, probably the ECB could do that. It still of course wouldn't have been great if it could pay off it's debt by value of devaluing it's currency as doing that too much can cause problems with the currency becoming worthless, inflation, being seen as bad to lend too, etc.

So was the US headed into a bad situation no matter whether there is a Republican President or a Democratic President? The US Government Debt as I understand it is vast so how to tackle that? If nothing is done does a situation like Greece come about where the whole system looks like it is in the edge of bankruptcy and collapse and then pick up the pieces? Or hammer back hard on Government spending and borrowing and while it causes suffering perhaps not as much as the whole Government going bust?

It looks like that is the route Trump, Musk, etc are taking but it looks like it's going to get pretty brutal out there in the US economy. So a form of tough love that for many may become very tough and harsh? So back to the 1930s Depression Era type scenario maybe? Those aren't easy times to live through and I would rather not have to myself. The post WWII period has probably been a reasonably decent period to live through but not without it's problems but none of them are likely as bad as being in the 1930s Depression or the WWII period, both such scenarios are better off not being in if there was ever much of a choice.