The Coming Crash

[Trenchcoat]

So it looks like there is potentially an economic recession/depression on the way. In the US it might already be there, I regularly see on LinkedIn about people laid off and looking for work with no hope. Initial signs show this seems to be effecting white collar/professional jobs the most.

Two reasons seem to be potentially behind this:

1). People's concern over Trumps tariffs and cutting back to prepare for the worst which then potentially is more likely to bring in the worst.

2). The increasing use of AI in the workplace making some jobs redundant. Again this seems to affect white collar jobs the most. Potentially lucrative jobs in IT all the way down to Data Inputters.

Microsoft has recently laid of many workers to this end:

http://www.techradar.com/pro/programmers-bore-the-brunt-of-microsofts-layoffs-in-its-home-state


It's difficult to say yet if Trumps tariffs tactics will work in favour or against the US economy and elsewhere. Of recent it seems that he is using the threat of tarriffs to bring countries to the negotiating table to strike a deal with the US to give the US more favourable trading terms.

With AI it looks like that could become a really big upset in people's lives. If alternative jobs can't be found for people then many could be left without work and impoverished. People that were doing very well for themselves could suddenly find themselves very poor and their lives wreaked and that's going to be very hard to take.

Potentially more physical jobs where people are needed in person is likely to swing back into favour and some may feel these jobs but even still a large surplus of workers/people in the world may be a problem. For governments around the work cutting down on the global population may become their main concern and probably has been. A lot I think will all depend on whether the economies around the world can shift and adapt if at all possible to the way things move. Sometimes new opportunities arise as old ones pass and I guess that is what will be hoped for but is probably not guaranteed.

So for those interested in dating FSW the need to get decent money in a changing economy will likely be important. The days of the digital IT nomad that could work & play abroad might soon be coming to an end.

[krimster2]

I done told them white folks already regarding the AI job apocalypse
if AI can automate yur job it will...it's already happening in some industries
in 5 years it'll be universal
that's the business plan of the billionaire oligarchs like Musk, Zuckerberg, Bezos, et al
it's why they all paid a $million to stand next to Trump at the regurgitation inauguration
all regulations on AI were soon terminated and no new ones
AI is a gaint vacuum cleaner to suck up all the jobs and spit out $Trump and $Melaania tokens

so ya wanna engage in some activity that can't be copied by Musk's AI

example of how to adapt

when I was a kid, I took a BUNCH of old car alternators from junked cars
and I completely disassembled them, and cleaned them, did simple repairs
they are quite a simple device; 3-phase alternator coils, shaft, bearings, diode rectifier
hook a shaft from a small electric motor to it and I had a 12V DC generator I could pwer my radio projects with, instead of batteries
I learned how easy it is to test an alternator to see if it works or what the prroblem is

can't speak for "ole blimey" but here foreign auto parts are gonna be at a premium
if you can salvage Mercedes, BMW alternators and sell 'em you got a business

you can buy a high end diagnostic computer that plusgs into any modern car
and it tells you instantly the problem and every detail
you can be a "mobile auto-mechanic"
you have a car, all you need are the tools (somewhere around $5000 total)
and the knowledge me boyo
you will pay little taxes, lots of cash
help some 'ole lady for free and you can get the media to hype you
I did this once with my kid

when I was young, old cars were mechanically very simple
with a timing light, you could do a tuneup, replace plugs, adjust or replace timing chain
do yur own oil/fluid change
and this car would run forever, as long as you don't mistreat it, cold starts, etc...
so you could solve 90% of problems yurself
old rich people will freakin love ya

my logistics expertise between Russia and the USA gives me the privilige of buying Chinese semiconductors shipping to Russia and then to the USA "DUTY FREE"
and I can sell this service as well

crisis = Danger + Opportunity

[Trenchcoat]

An interesting take on it Krim.

Well latest news from the UK economy isn't good:

http://news.sky.com/story/uk-economy-contracted-sharply-in-april-after-trumps-tariffs-13382404

Trade has fallen with the US as Trumps tarriffs begin to hit even though we aren't by far the worst effected. So our economy has contracted rather than grown in the last quarter. I believe if it does in the next quarter for two consecutive quarters we are then officially in a recession until we get done growth again I guess.

It has been noted in recent days that Employers are advertising less job vacancies as well do there are fewer jobs to apply to. That as well is potentially early signs of trouble ahead. Autumn has often been a time when recessions strike full force onwards throughout the winter and subsequent years so who knows.

In the US I hear things aren't too great either judging by many people seemingly looking for jobs on LinkedIn without much joy, generally professional types, white collar work.

So I don't know what members here make of it so far? Are we already at the beginning of a big economic downturn in the West or is there still some time to go yet?

[krimster2]

yeah, that statistic just came out, it's a "leading indicator"

yes, reduction in trade means a reduction in the economy

I don't know the UK's numbers

but the USA now takes a $TRILLION out of the main street economy EVERY YEAR to pay interest on the National Debt
1/3 of this goes to foreigners

Trump has added hundreds of billions in Tariffs
all this is taken out of the general economy, so it declines

debt and interest and tariffs shrinks the economy
and concentrates wealth instead of distributing it

then add all the other debts, student loans, credit card, etc
and see what percentage of the consumer economy is devoted to paying off old debt instead of buying new things
and notice that the trend is for this number to keep growing over time

the average working person is a debt slave
and it's going to get much, much worse in the near future when they all go bankruot

you had all better figure out how to get yur own "income streams" and not rely on a salaried job any more

when Trump leaves office the USA will be paying over $1.3 Trillion per year in interest on the the federal debt
within 5 years of that, the USA must decide to either raise Social Security taxes or cut benefits by 1/3

by the mid 2030s all the chickens are coming home to roost in the US economy, can't kick the can down the road anymore
when ya come to a dead end


the dollar will lose value, don't hold any
gold and silver

the absolute BEST land to own, is a farm that borders a major highway
no property taxes
grow Hemp and yur own food

be off-grid
build yur home fire-proof and ya don't even need home owners insurance
tax free, utility free, insurance free
and chickens and gardens

buy a turn-key micro-brewery
http://acestills.com/product/5-bbl-brewing-system/

a lotta ways to make moeny with these
I don't know UK laws, but easy to do this here

you can copy the design and make it yurself for half price
and lease these to clubs, etc

you can bottle yur own brand with yur own label
I have a genetically engineered yeast that expresses the genes for THC production from Cannabis Sativa
called Canary Dank


PS
Uranium Hexaflouride is nasty stuff
who's gonna clean up all those busted Russian centrifuges in Iran?
will Russia lose Iranian weapons now cuz they're gonna get used in the war with Is-rael?