AIDS

[turpin]

How common is AIDS among women in FSU?
Is a blood test required as part of the fiance visa process?
How long after infection does it take for the blood tests that are used in Russia to show a positive?

[BillyB]

Aids are present at a higher rate in Russia along the drug trade route through Siberia from Afghanistan in cities like Novosibirsk, Novokuznetsk, Omsk and Irkutsk. Russia's aids rate is comparable with some African nations.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:HIV_Epidem.png

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_HIV/AIDS_adult_prevalence_rate

[Bruno]

Data from Wikipedia are from 2003... now the situation is more bad...

22 August 2006 ( rank of 137 nation )... An estimate of the percentage of adults (aged 15-49) living with HIV/AIDS. The adult prevalence rate is calculated by dividing the estimated number of adults living with HIV/AIDS at yearend by the total adult population at yearend.
- rank 50 : Ukraine 1.4%
- rank 55 : Estonia 1.1%
- rank 57 : Russia 1.1%
- rank 69 : Latvia 0.6%
- rank 71 : USA 0.6%
- rank 84 : Belarus 0.3%
- rank 94 : Kazahstan 0.2%
- rank 96 : Moldova 0.2%
- rank 100 : Belgium 0.2%

Some FSU country make better that other... now, similar table... but more interesting for the guys... old data from 1997 Uniteds Nation...
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/hea_hiv_aid_wom_liv_wit_aid_15_49-aids-women-living-15-49
- rank 121 : Lithuania 0.1%

[Albert]

There is a double problem here.  Not only is the AIDs rate high, but many (I didn't say all) FSU women don't take precautions to cut down on their exposure to STDs.  i.e. They don't insist on use of condoms.  In fact many will suggest or insist that you don't use a condom.  And my experience is with mature, highly educated women in FSU.

[jj]

If little protection is used does that mean most of FSU woman take birth control pills, and are they provided as medication for free by government or do they have to purchase them? -jj

[Turboguy]

Personally I think they just get an abortion when they get pregnant.  I have not heard much conversation about birth control pills there.

[Gator]

They use birth control pills or an IUD.

[happiness]

I saw condoms at every grocery store cash register in Russia.  Right next to the chewing gum and candy.  Someone must be buying them.

[SANDRO43]

I saw condoms at every grocery store cash register in Russia.  Right next to the chewing gum and candy. Someone must be buying them.

.. and chewing/munching them, considering the statistics ?

[andrewfi]

There is a serious problem with the UNAids prevalence statistics. In some cases they will show a figure that is too high and in others too low.

The critique of those figures is elsewhere on this board. But they almost certainly overestimate the figures for all the Baltic states by a very large margin. The same is probably true of those for Russia and for the same reasons.

However, it is certainly true that diagnosed cases of AIDS are increasing throughout the FSU. The Russian figures are almost certainly swelled by the high genuine incidence of TB. TB is known to generate large numbers of false positives for HIV tests and is one of the illnesses which is used as a part of the diagnosis of AIDS. (It is almost as simple as stating that if you have TB, you lose weight and show a tendency toward an immune deficiency then one has AIDS. At that point all the symptoms are listed as being AIDS and not the underlying and genuine illnesses. This is the real economic value of AIDS to health systems and why many health services are not unhappy to be told by UNAids that prevalence is high and rising.)

Don't forget that HIV and AIDS are different things. HIV is a retrovirus that can be detected and AIDS is a cluster of symptoms that is usually, but not always associated with a high count of HIV in the blood.

All the above noted, a concern that we have in Estonia is that up until recently HIV has been almost totally confined to injecting drug users from the very poorest strata of society and also to have been geographically confined. Recently, for the first time ever, the number of cases of HIV/Aids diagnosed in Tallinn was the same as Narva. This may be a serious development. What I do not yet know is whether the geographical change accompanies a socio/economic change as well. If it does, then no matter what the real incidence of HIV, we do have a problem, if one accepts the hypothesis that HIV is a causaton of the symptoms called AIDS.

[Sohkay]

turpin,
You wrote, "How common is AIDS among women in FSU?
Is a blood test required as part of the fiance visa process?
How long after infection does it take for the blood tests that are used in Russia to show a positive?"

Your first question has been answered.

Secondly, to my knowledge, an HIV blood test is required as part of the K-1 visa medical exam.

Third, re: time and HIV testing...The actual results can be had within minutes after testing, with some tests. But all tests for HIV do not achieve their highest level of reliability until 6 months after the last exposure.

And disregard the questioning of statistical validity and all such nonsense. It is a very real and growing problem. Take responsibility and do the right thing. Discuss your recent sexual histories with your partner. Practice safe sex until the hurdles have been crossed. And then, when you and your partner are in the clear, just imagine how wonderful that "unsheathed" feeling is going to be!

Good luck.

[Albert]

If little protection is used does that mean most of FSU woman take birth control pills, and are they provided as medication for free by government or do they have to purchase them? -jj

Similar to what Gator said, in my experience they either take BC pills or have IUD inserted.  Currently neither are freely provided by government.

[Stirlitz]

There is a double problem here.  Not only is the AIDs rate high, but many (I didn't say all) FSU women don't take precautions to cut down on their exposure to STDs.  i.e. They don't insist on use of condoms.  In fact many will suggest or insist that you don't use a condom.  And my experience is with mature, highly educated women in FSU.

My experience is quite different. They are very much concerned about their health and are quite unwilling to use condoms.

Perhaps this is due to a belief among women that foreigners are less likely to carry an STD than locals.

Personally I think they just get an abortion when they get pregnant.  I have not heard much conversation about birth control pills there.

Abortion — no. This is very painful and fraught with serious consequences so they would avoid it at any cost. Many have a spiral or whatever you call an object inside the womb to prevent conception.

[Nando]

For your own protection and health use condoms...
Even if you think your partner is monogamic you can have a hell of a surprise
And it doesn't matter if it is in New York or Kiev. Just after a HIV I will trust in anyone.
Don't compromise

[Todd]

Andrew,

For testing, aren't clinics using the newer, more accurate PCR test?  If so, the rate of false positives should go way down. 

Also, many of the numbers quoted look suspiciously low.  I know that teachers typically get tested every year, but I would expect that the groups most at risk are also the groups least tested.

[TexasBoar]

Caution is always a good idea, but in reality, there have been virtually NO documented transmissions of HIV from female to male through normal intercourse. 

I don't care what Magic says he didn't do. 

~Boar

[Sohkay]

Back up your statement Boar.

What's your source/sources?

Until you can provide that, you're talking a truckload of horsepuckey.

Until you can source this, I state for the record that you are making an extremely ignorant, and potentially harmful statement.

I think most intelligent people realize what a STUPID statement you've made.

[Bruno]

Caution is always a good idea, but in reality, there have been virtually NO documented transmissions of HIV from female to male through normal intercourse. 

So, allow me to "document" 

http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5402a1.htm
end of document, table 1



So, if a man have a normal intercourse with a woman having the HIV, the risico is only 5 on 10000... Seem very low but who is ready to gamble with his own life ? Don't forget, no cure exist for HIV... once you catch it, you have it until your dead...

[Todd]

In response to Sohkay, what TexasBoar is saying isn't as much of horsepuckey as you might think.
The Wall Street Journal did an in depth analysis of transmission rates and policy choices made during the Reagan and Bush senior administration a couple of years ago.  Here were some of the results of the article:

-Different strains of HIV have different levels of infectivity.  The one that predominated in Africa was much more transmissible via hetrosexual vaginal transmission.  The one in Western Europe and Norther America was much more transmissible via anal transmission.

-The strain that predominates in the US and Western Europe had roughly a 1 in 1,000,000 chance of female to male transmission per vaginal exposure ASSUMING the male was healthy.  Male to female transmission was roughly 1 in 100,000 per exposure.  In the case of anal sex, I believe the odds of female to male transmission were 1 in 100,000 due to the greater possiblity of tissue tearing.  HOWEVER, for every veneral disease, the chance of infectivity jumped by a factor of 10 or greater especially in the case of open sores.  There was a table of modifiers, but roughly, the highest a man could get up was roughly 1 in 100 chance of transmission per anal sex exposure.  Looking at the table provided by Bruno, my guess is that this is an aggregated probability and isn't segmented into quite the way that the above information.

Again, you want to use a condom to avoid some of the other STD's as well as to lower the possibility of pregnancy.  

Is anyone more up on this information?  As I am now married to a very wonderful woman, I don't personally keep up to date on this any more, and I haven't come across anything recently in Science or Nature.

Todd

[Sohkay]

Bruno,
I'm surprised at you. Your research is normally so thorough and timely. You present us with information from scientists that were convened in 2001! They were using data from the 1990's! Come on, you can do better than giving us information that is from a decade ago!

Here's a little something for you...

Heterosexual transmission of HIV
Nancy Padian, PhD
University of California, San Francisco

HIV is unquestionably transmitted through heterosexual intercourse. Indeed, heterosexual intercourse is now responsible for 70-80% of all HIV transmissions worldwide

Link to article:

http://www.aidstruth.org/nancy-padian.php

[Sohkay]

Trust me Todd, it's a considerable amount of horsepuckey.

[Todd]

I just read the article, and you and Bruno are quoting the exact SAME numerical information. 

Bruno's numbers give the transmission rate at 10 in 10,000 or roughly a 0.1% transmission rate. 

Whereas in the next sentence of the article you refer, it says:

"current likelihood of female to male infection after a single exposure is 0.01-0.1%". 

So, Bruno's numbers appear on the high end of the range.

[andrewfi]

Todd, as you may, or may not, know, HIV, or more accurately AIDS is often diagnosed without testing. A simple tick sheet of illnesses is used. So, a patient who presents with 3 from 10 (I don't know the sheet so illustration only!) will be classified as having Aids. This is a UNAids approved and sponsored policy for regions where reliable testing is not possible. Estonia is not one of those regions. Parts of Russia are, or certainly have been within the last few years. Given the condition of many of Russia's poor and imprisoned it is no surprise that some, if not many people with clusters of illnesses get labelled as having Aids.

Given that HIV/Aids attracts funding like flies to fly paper it suits certain groups to not argue with UNAids. Funding follows Aids, Estonia certainly benefts from this. The nice thing about Aids is that general care for Aids related illness is exactly the same as for the general population. Thus, give money to support Aids and you also upgrade the facilities for everyone! Aids is good business.

I am not an expert on HIV testing and if there are tests that show fewer positives that is good. Statisitcally though, the false positive rate has to be tiny to solve the problem of false results. To the best of my recollection, a 'proper' diagnosis of HIV requires a series of three tests. Given the following: Most patients outside of the rich countries do not ever get three tests, if any, and that most people in this region who are diagnosed with HIV are already sick and immune depressed, it kinda lends credence to the idea that the figures for actual infection might be a tad overstated in some places. Combine with UNAids crappy methodology in surveying prevalence in the population and the political and social capital to be derived from high figures and one can understand how things can be misleading.

[TexasBoar]

Back up your statement Boar.

What's your source/sources?

Until you can provide that, you're talking a truckload of horsepuckey.

Until you can source this, I state for the record that you are making an extremely ignorant, and potentially harmful statement.

I think most intelligent people realize what a STUPID statement you've made.

Washington State Certified Nursing Assistant Training based on CDC findings and materials.  It's how I worked my way through college, early 90's.  They certainly didn't come right out and SAY that . . . but any sensible, rational person could read between the lines.

Taking it up the a$$ from an infected person, sharing infected needles, and receiving an infected blood transfusion remain the overwhelming causes.  It's a blood-borne pathogen and requires an exchange of blood to infect . . . mucous membrane contact is NOT enough, unlike gonorrhea or syphilis.

~Boar

[Bruno]

Bruno,
I'm surprised at you. Your research is normally so thorough and timely...

Here's a little something for you...

Heterosexual transmission of HIV
Nancy Padian, PhD
University of California, San Francisco

Article from 1997...

More recent data... from the CDC again... evolution from 1984 until 2004


http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/topics/surveillance/resources/slides/trends/slides/AIDS_Trends15.pdf


http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/topics/surveillance/resources/slides/trends/slides/AIDS_Trends16.pdf


http://www.cdc.gov/hiv/topics/surveillance/resources/slides/trends/slides/AIDS_Trends17.pdf

The main cause for female HIV is heterosexual relation, the main cause for male HIV is homosexual relation... since we are male and not homosexual, risk are more low but not null...

More interesting for us, the situation in Russia... from the World Health Organisation, data 2003...
http://www.who.int/hiv/HIVCP_RUS.pdf

- all case of HIV are not equal in all regio... it range from 0 case by 100.000 people to more of 500 case... simply take a look at the map in the PDF file.
- drugs user are 87% of the people living with HIV...
- sex worker are 5 to 15% of the people living with HIV...
- prisoners are 5% of the people living with HIV...

Since no one here seek a woman who is a sex worker, user of drugs or prisoners... we can remove 97% minimum...

at http://data.unaids.org/pub/GlobalReport/2006/2006_GR_ANN2_en.pdf , you can find that in 2005, 940.000 russian people was infected with HIV... 160.000 are women...

So, we have 160.000 women with HIV in Russia... remove 5% sex worker, 5% prisoner, 87% drugs user... stay 28000 "usual" women who  are infected with HIV...

Now, let see this in a other way... 160.000 women with HIV on a population of 77.076.800 women... this make 1 women on 48173... let say that 100.000 Russian women seek a foreign man for marriage... it mean that 2 russian women who is seeking a foreign men is a potential danger due to HIV... of course, if your lady is not a sex worker, a prisoner or a drug users, it become 0.06 women...

Really, don't worry too much about HIV in Russia... but beware that other illness are more pendemic... by example, the turberculose...

Hope that you are happy Sohkay... you have make me work a lot