Statistics...........And Your Success

[CaptB]

Not a flame.......or really a complaint. Many folks here bring-up......or search for "statistics" about FSU/foreign marriages...divorce rates.....successes....failures etc. The reasoning is......to help you "decide"......if this venture is for you. The reality of marriage to a foreigner........this will definately "not" be easier than sticking closer to your home turf. Statistics will be meaningless....to you...personally. Your own self-confidence (or lack-of).....will be the biggest determining factor....if you should proceed.....or not. Lots of folks come to these sites.....lacking in social and/or relationship skills. It won't be easier here. Yes you can get someone's "attention" easier in many cases.......but starting and maintaining a relationship will at best have more pitfalls along the way. As my friend "jb" says:
".....this is the "advanced" class......those lacking self-confidence need not apply".

I always advocated sitting down with pen in hand.....and take a good honest look at yourself. Write down a small list of things you are looking for in a partner....and in a relationship. The things on this "part 1" of your list.....you can/will "NOT" compromise. There was a guy who went to Tver.....he deviated (compromised) from the list that he made. When confronted on his transgression......his "excuse" was..........sometimes we must compromise. 20+ trips......no wife to date. This is a list about things "you" would never compromise. Part 2.....is another short list of things you "desire".......but you "could" live without.......a reminder list.

I met a very nice guy in Tver using LTP. Early forties, tall, attractive Japanese American. He was an "accountant". The first day I noticed he had a binder containing around one-hundred fifty pages of "statistics", charts, graphs etc. I asked him what it was for. He said it was his tool to help find the perfect wife. I said "oh".......... We went accross the street for breakfast. I pulled out a slip of paper listing the RW I would meet that day. I asked him what he was looking for in a partner. With that......he opened his binder. I asked if I could see his notes......he complied. After several days....he made the comment that I seemed to be having alot of fun and enjoying the process. I again asked him what he was looking for....again he opened his notebook..........................I put my hand on it and said that such things he must know "without notes". He seemed to be less comfortable about expressing his feelings.....without references. I took out my schedule slip...then glanced at "my list". Of course I knew my list by heart.....never really needing to "write it down". But keeping it on my person (all 3" x 5" of it) is more like a piece of string on a finger.......a reminder to focus....when all those beautiful women walk into the room. He asked to see my card......reading every word......and slowly handed in back to me. Two days later......I see him again at the LTP office. We talk.....go to breakfast........but he is sans......"the notebook". I asked him where it was......he said "in the trash"........and proceeded to pull-out his own card.
He said since doing so.......he was really focussed on "what" he was looking for. He seemed to be enjoying himself more......letting things happen.....enjoying the company of each woman. He did find a very nice woman......they married......and still are very happy.

Statistics can make someone who "lacks" self-confidence "feel better".......but in the long-run......won't be helpful. "You" are the biggest factor......not what other people are doing. Divorce rates higher/lower in this process.........does not apply to the individual. Forget about statistics.........and focus on..............you.

Capt B

[SANDRO43]

Just out of curiosity, are you trying to build up a dramatic climax with all those dots ... you use ... throughout ... your posts ... ?

[PeeWee]

Just out of curiosity, are you trying to build up a dramatic climax with all those dots ... you use ... throughout ... your posts ... ?

But does your observation have any statistical meaning?

Capt B's post makes a lot of good sense.

Peewee

[SANDRO43]

But does your observation have any statistical meaning?

Not at all, just curious about the reasons for all those dots, an unusual stylistic trait. 

[PeeWee]

Not at all, just curious about the reasons for all those dots, an unusual stylistic trait. 

There's A Guy Who Posts On Another Fourm Who Capitalizes Every Word That He Writes. Now That Is What I Call Irritating.

Peewee

[TexasBoar]

Personally, I use an ellipsis (what the "dots" are actually called) whenever I would naturally pause in conversation . . . and I pause fairly often.  Capt. B seems to be doing it to avoid creating long strings of choppy sentence fragments; several friends of mine tend to do the same online.

Bit of an odd thing to pick on, unless it's really, really . . . bothering you. 

~Boar

[SANDRO43]

Fellows, I realise that the Tver Romance thread may have made people suspicious of possible hidden meanings and devious, slily-worded attacks but, I repeat, I was simply CURIOUS about a style I have seldom seen used here, if ever. Neither bothered nor irritated.

And ... TB ... thanks for ... the parabola, I love conic sections

[CaptB]

................................the dots. Just my style.......................don't know when or why it started. Alot of the "Geezers" disapear from here.....and the RWG.....because people ....of late.....seem to want to rattle on about anything but the business at hand......................ie finding a partner from the FSU. A simple question on the "Tver Romance" thread.........26 pages later.......nothing resolved......and the two parties involved in the controversy.......Max and Natasha..........are nowhere to be found. I came back here because the topic will always be interesting......and personal. 8 trips to Russia.....a place that is a second home......and a wife of three years......great inlaws....and new friends to show for it. I don't have all the answers but I have helped more than half-dozen couples get together......because they were serious about this venture. Some folks care more about............................."dots"?
I think I will go give my wife....................a hug.

Capt B

[ConnerVT]

Hey!

Don't be agitating the dots...

[youtube=425,350]19rVKy_pfFU[/youtube]

[viking]

Conner

Very.....cool.....LOL

[jb]

For the record,,,, there is very little statistical data regarding AM/RW marriages.  The common logic/preception is that these marriages are lasting longer than the typical AW/AM marriage.  Frankly, I attribute this to the fact that most of these inter-cultural marriages are the second or third times around for most of these partners, and the participants are more geared towards the hard work that makes any marriage a success. 

I only have my own household to measure, and while we are in the 5th year and things have settled down a bit, I can attest to the fact that I've never been a relationship that required so much patience and plain old hard work.  A lot more give and take, with the emphasis on more give than take.  I often wonder if I had put this kind of effort in my first marriage if it would have been more permanent.  But I was young then and had little patience in those days, I have come to expect less in the way of instant gratification. 

I think whatever you get out of this deal will be proportional to how much you are willing to put into it.  Little more, and nothing less.

[Admin]

There is not much of anything in the way of credible statistics.

About the closest thing to it was the Immigration Act of 1996 (<- Link to first page - additional links at bottom of each page).

That act was swept away with the IBMRA legislation effective about a year ago.

Still, the 1996/1999 material was the closest thing anyone has commissioned to some REAL data gathering.

FWIW

- Dan

[BillyB]

Our government and private institutions spend big bucks in getting statistics, so gotta place some value in it. A guy wants to go get laid in Africa but doesn't want aids  may make a good move knowing Somalia has a 1% prevalence among adults compared to 37% in Botswana. A guy coming here believing agency hype jumping in this endeavor can learn through statistics that Russians divorce at a higher rate than Americans among other myths. Statistics are great when you look at an overall picture. No matter how dedicated you are to staying married, statistically speaking, there is an average of little over two people to a relationship so you have to consider outside factors besides the confidence in yourself to maintaining a happy marriage.

When I wrote to over 600 women, my thoughts in finding success was that there was bound to be at least one woman that was perfect for me. There was one, in Uzbekistan! But she wasn't even in my top 200 women if I compared profiles and based on her location. Heck, I didn't even have time to read profiles. But if I put self imposed limitations on myself by choosing a woman from a certain country or a certain city or basing my choice on how a profile was written, or a certain age, height or weight, then I'd decrease my chance to find happiness. After reading the forums enough, I learned a guy doesn't find success easily with the first woman he writes to and must go through many. Knowing that fact, the odds, or the statistics, one can learn to change your behaviour for the better, such as in avoiding Botswana.

I agree, there is very little statistical data regarding AM/RW marriages. But we all want to know because we want to learn and understand something we can't learn from associating with a small group of people at a forum or locally. A reliable statistic on the AM/RW issue is very important.......to us.

[Leslie]

To my knowledge.  No meaningful statistics are available for either the USA or UK.  What we really need are longitudinal studies of the kind commonly used in assessing medical treatments. 

For example 1000 people were treated for disease X by treatment Y in 2000 -

In 2001 -800 were alive and well
2002 - 750
2003 - 700

Etc.  I think you get the drift.  Of 1000 fiance visas granted in 2000

700 married within the 90 day limit.
500 were still married 1 year later.
450 were still married 2 years later.
250 were still married 3 years later.

Of course our community is only interested in fiance visas granted to former FSU fiances.

It would be perfectly possible to fund such a study but there has never been the political will to do so.  Politicians would much rather slur our community with example cases which justify their prejudices...

On the basis of my own experience (coming up 7 years of reading RW related forums)  I have come to the following educated guesses-

A significant % (say around 20%) of visa filings are not carried through to completion.  For a multitude of reasons a visa is filed but the intended spouse never emigrates.

A significant % of fiances go home and the marriage never takes place.

The divorce rate during the first 2 years of marriage is high  Maxx can go on about this but in my experience far more marriages end with a whimper and a quick divorce than do via DV charges and elaborate court cases.  In seven years of reading the forums I have NEVER read of a case where a married woman was deported following divorce - unless she was also convicted of a felony....

The marriages which last more than 2 years appear to be more resilient.  I agree with JB's statement -

"I can attest to the fact that I've never been a relationship that required so much patience and plain old hard work.  A lot more give and take, with the emphasis on more give than take.  I often wonder if I had put this kind of effort in my first marriage if it would have been more permanent."

This is definitely the case for Natasha and myself.  We have both changed a great deal as individuals.  The family needs come before our own.  We had to try VERY hard to make our marriage work.  If I had married a local woman with the same level of mutual commitment then I am sure the marriage would have lasted but I never met such a woman locally.  I had to travel half way round the world to find Tasha...

[gumby510]

Hey!

Don't be agitating the dots...

[youtube=425,350]19rVKy_pfFU[/youtube]

LOL Priceless

[Marc Dayton]

Nice Post CaptB

I have worked with 1000's of men, and many times I have told them it is Just as impotent for them to know what they won't live with as what the want in a wife.

No matter were a man search leads him NO WHAT YOU CAN"T LIVE WITH!!!!

[Darth Vader]

Hey CaptB...I like the use of ellipsis...but of course the rule is that the exact correct number to use...is three.

[RESQU]

Good advice Capt.

Before finding these boards I was searching for info.  I am one of the guys who bought Elena Petrova's book.  Looking back, I can say it was a good book for someone who knew nothing at the time, but admittedly easy info to get from the experienced guys here.  The best advice I did get from her book is the same as yours, she really drives home the point to know who YOU are and what you want before even starting.  She advises to make a three column list; Must haves, wants(but can live without), and can't have.  Also it is good to keep revisiting this list from time to time to update it.  From the time I wrote my first letter and the first of many dates I went on, I knew exactly what I was looking for.  Just the elusive "chemistry" in meeting face to face was the variable I couldn't pin down.  When I had the Smokinkova smiling in front of me, it was easier(but still painful) to move on knowing that she had one or more of my "can't haves" on her resume.  When I met my GF I was simply floored at how it all fell into place.  We will see what the future holds for us.

For the record,,,, there is very little statistical data regarding AM/RW marriages.  The common logic/preception is that these marriages are lasting longer than the typical AW/AM marriage.  Frankly, I attribute this to the fact that most of these inter-cultural marriages are the second or third times around for most of these partners, and the participants are more geared towards the hard work that makes any marriage a success. 

I only have my own household to measure, and while we are in the 5th year and things have settled down a bit, I can attest to the fact that I've never been a relationship that required so much patience and plain old hard work.  A lot more give and take, with the emphasis on more give than take.  I often wonder if I had put this kind of effort in my first marriage if it would have been more permanent.  But I was young then and had little patience in those days, I have come to expect less in the way of instant gratification. 

I think whatever you get out of this deal will be proportional to how much you are willing to put into it.  Little more, and nothing less.

jb

I agree, I have thought often that if I had put this much effort into my past relationships where I would be.


Sandro-

DON'T AGITATE THE DOTS!

[Daknack]

I would be interested in hearing from the married and engaged guys (or anyone else for that matter) as to what is on thier "list" card.

[KenC]

Capt B,
Nice post.  Sorry for being late in recognizing it.  Even though you use statistics in the title here, your post seems to be more about how to analytically process your needs into reality with regards to RW.  This is a slippery slope indeed because so much depends upon the man's experience level.  I have always maintained that if a man does well in the dating scene in his home country, he will do very well in the fsu.  The problem, as I see it, is that the Internet agencies seem to attract a plethora of men with little or no experience in dating women.  (Or maybe the guys with dating skills are just busy dating local women?)  Regardless, it appears to me that the guys that are successful in this pursuit are comfortable around women and would hold their own on the home front.  The guys that get in trouble are the ones coming out of recently ended long term divorces or never really acquired any dating skills.

When you throw an inexperienced man into the agency dating pool, it is kind of like throwing him into a tank of sharks and he has very little chance for survival.  He will soon be eaten alive.
KenC

[TexasBoar]

Hey CaptB...I like the use of ellipsis...but of course the rule is that the exact correct number to use...is three.

Heh heh heh . . . not so!

Three if they represent a "gap" or "snip" of less than a sentence .  . .  . four if MORE than a sentence is missing.

MLA format, quoth I. 

~Boar

[William3rd]

Worth my 2 cents worth. John Roth, a very fine NY attorney, and I compared notes on "successes." Between us, we have over 7000 cases. Our completely scientific "gut" feeling is that only about 15% of our clients are still married 5 years after the engagement.

We both saw about 10% of the cases failing during the process- higher more recently- and about another 33% not marrying during the 90 days. But five years later, we are seeing alot of old clients back for a second fiancee visa.

I am aware of a couple romance tour situations that had almost 100% engagements but now have 90% divorce rates.

You and your bride have to work really hard to succeed and it cant be business as usual for the petitioner when she gets here.

Bill

[viking]

Those are pretty nasty stats. When you consider the time and money involved just to find a 'honest woman who wants you', then take it from there, its gotta make you think. 43% never got to first base (marriage) and another 42% failed within 5 years. Just between you guys that is about 3000 some odd RWs floating out here someplace looking for a home. Hmmmmm

[Jumper]

great post Capt B.


william3 - i dont doubt your gut feelings.

i know of quite a few crash and burns..normally pre marriage though.
and a few married couples not really "in love " but going thru the motions of marriage and headed towards separation or divorce.
 
but honestly i know far more couples happily married with new families started..with of course  the normal up and downs of any relationship , or marriage, with quite normal and happy lives

reflecting percentages ansd relationship situations that i would expect to see  in any group of married couples you would pick at random on the street.

hardly statistical,
just from one persons experiences and observations..

but once married- i dont see much differences in the western men/RW couples,  than i do in any of my other married freinds or aquantences

[Jumper]

captB -
you did remind me of something my grandfather always said -

no matter where you go, there you are!
you bring yourself with you..