Statistics...........And Your Success

[BC]

william3 - i dont doubt your gut feelings.

have to remember AJ, Bill see's only a slice of the pie.. or maybe layer is a better analogy.

[Bruce]

I tend to think the observations made by William III and John Roth are very valid.  However, correct me if I am wrong, the bulk of their experience is with guys that met girls on tours.

[William3rd]

About 70% of my cases were from AFA tour clients. And most of the relationships were from the socials, including my own russian fiancee back in 2000.

The best method seems to be- make contact, preferably with a smaller agency, write a little bit, then telephone, then go over to meet one person. At least there seem to be fewer complaints with these more traditional relationships.

[dwfunk]

For the record,,,, there is very little statistical data regarding AM/RW marriages.  The common logic/preception is that these marriages are lasting longer than the typical AW/AM marriage.  Frankly, I attribute this to the fact that most of these inter-cultural marriages are the second or third times around for most of these partners, and the participants are more geared towards the hard work that makes any marriage a success. 

Regarding "local" marriages: Actually the failure rate for second and third marriages is higher because they've now learned how easy it is to "bail" when things get rough.  Very few people change anything the 2nd or 3rd time around and get the same results.  There is seldom an awareness of the hard work that makes a marriage a sucess.

I only have my own household to measure, and while we are in the 5th year and things have settled down a bit, I can attest to the fact that I've never been a relationship that required so much patience and plain old hard work.  A lot more give and take, with the emphasis on more give than take.  I often wonder if I had put this kind of effort in my first marriage if it would have been more permanent.  But I was young then and had little patience in those days, I have come to expect less in the way of instant gratification. 

I think whatever you get out of this deal will be proportional to how much you are willing to put into it.  Little more, and nothing less.

You've hit it on the head.  Somewhere going into this process of an international marriage, we've become aware that things will be tougher and that we will need more patience and tolerance. Then when we do become more patient, we get to reap the rewards, and they are oh, so sweet!!


-----
David & Natalia
УЛ. КОНЕНКОВА
16th World Spacemodeling Championships

[BillyB]

Domestic marriages in the U.S. end in divorce about 50% of the time. People's second marriages end in divorce 70% of the time and people's third marriages end in divorce 90% of the time. I remember reading that somewhere.

If true then and an overwhelming amount of men who pursue RW have been married previously, then the divorce rate will be high and not out of the ordinary compared to 2nd and 3rd domestic marriages.

Also the average type of man who uses tours and an immigration attorney to take care of his paperwork may be different than the average type of man who goes and does things on his own.

Clearly we can classify different success rates with different classes of people. I surely don't see a 90% divorce rate between the regular, normal, above average, and more educated posters at RW forums.

William3rd, do your clients a favor and direct them to this forum to get educated.

[PeeWee]

Worth my 2 cents worth. John Roth, a very fine NY attorney, and I compared notes on "successes." Between us, we have over 7000 cases. Our completely scientific "gut" feeling is that only about 15% of our clients are still married 5 years after the engagement.

We both saw about 10% of the cases failing during the process- higher more recently- and about another 33% not marrying during the 90 days. But five years later, we are seeing alot of old clients back for a second fiancee visa.

I am aware of a couple romance tour situations that had almost 100% engagements but now have 90% divorce rates.

You and your bride have to work really hard to succeed and it cant be business as usual for the petitioner when she gets here.

Bill

Bill, am I correct in assuming that your 7,000 cases are retlated to those who have come to you because there was already trouble in their relationship? If so then your stats are of course biased in that you are only sampling a group that has a great chance of failing. There may well be 7,000 other couples out there that you never heard of because they are happy and did not seek the consul of a lawyer, or marriage counsuler. Their success ratio would then be much much higher.

peewee

[Gator]

your 7,000 cases are retlated to those who have come to you because there was already trouble in their relationship?

Possibly, but I do not think Will and John Roth practice Family Law.

The statement by Will is consistent with a scientific study discussed four years ago at RWG.  A scientist with the name of Chester (?) presented the preliminary results of his statistical study of AM-RW marriagess.  Chester then answered questions from readers.  From his presentation and use of scientific vernacular, I believe his study was scientifically valid.  The sample size was more than ample.

Unfortunately, Chester died before completing and publishing the study. One of the unfinished tasks was a peer review.  There was no further news, suggesting that funding had dried up.

Chester's study consisted of two independent samples and approaches.   I recall the following:  The divorce rate for all AM-RW marriagess is 67% within the first two years.  For marriages with short introduction periods (one month or less), the rate is over 90%.

I was a novice at the time, and the results shocked me.  Four years later, I find them credible. 

I went a year without reading RW forums, so perhaps there is some update.  Somewhere on another computer I have the results. The study reported other results, such as whether the RW was in love.

[Bruce]

"William3rd, do your clients a favor and direct them to this forum to get educated."

Billy, if he did that he would not have any clients  .

[William3rd]

To Peewee- No, I am talking about fiancee visa clients-not clients having relationship problems.  

What I think we see are a lot of guys who want to have a relationship fit into their busy schedule and are not willing to work hard enough on the relationship, guys that would have relationship problems here or anywhere, and girls that want to get out of where they are. These are worldwide cases and not just tour clients. John does very little tour work while I did a lot of tour clients.

[PeeWee]

To Peewee- No, I am talking about fiancee visa clients-not clients having relationship problems.  

What I think we see are a lot of guys who want to have a relationship fit into their busy schedule and are not willing to work hard enough on the relationship, guys that would have relationship problems here or anywhere, and girls that want to get out of where they are. These are worldwide cases and not just tour clients. John does very little tour work while I did a lot of tour clients.

Excellent. Also noted is that these are "worldwide cases" which means that the fact that some of them were Russian/American other were Philippine/American, Western European/American, etc. A broad mix of cross cultural marriages where the bride arrived from her native country to live in the USA. Further noted is your comment, "...guys who want to have a relationship fit into their busy schedule and are not willing to work hard enough on the relationship, guys that would have relationship problems here or anywhere, and girls that want to get out of where they are."

It would seem that if our international romeo entered this process realizing that his busy life may not have enough room to add a wife and all of the attention that she requires (even an American wife would require this) and realize his social short comings and be aware that some women have an agenda other than that of finding her soul mate then he would stand a very good chance of success. Any one of those three key relationship requirements would or could be a deal killer. I can see why the odds are low.

Peevee

[PeeWee]

Chester's study consisted of two independent samples and approaches.   I recall the following:  The divorce rate for all AM-RW marriagess is 67% within the first two years.  For marriages with short introduction periods (one month or less), the rate is over 90%.

What this is suggesting is that the AM/RW divorce rate is only 17% higher than the US national divorce rate. I would discount the 90% statistic because I would tend to believe that any marriage that was made in haste would suffer this same failure ratio.

Peevee

[William3rd]

"Chester's study consisted of two independent samples and approaches.   I recall the following:  The divorce rate for all AM-RW marriagess is 67% within the first two years.  For marriages with short introduction periods (one month or less), the rate is over 90%. "

Hmmm- could that 2 year line equate loosely with the receipt of permanent residency status? Especially that 90% number?

I have talked to my first russian GF-she is here in the US- and she ponders whether RW/AM couples will ever work.

This time through, I have known my fiancee for 14 months and looked hard at her family, we talk every day on IM and cam. And she doesnt have any particular desire to be here except that we would be together alot more until I retire.

As an aside to a prior poster, I am doing some local family law cases these days and I am doing some trial work. I have been surprised how many clients you can find at the gym or at football practice. Fiancee visas have been fun but I am enjoying more lawyering now. Waiver cases are much nicer than cookie cutter work handled over and over again.

[Gator]

This is the preliminary summary of the scientific study as posted 3-4 years ago.  I recall that CameraGuy found the study.

MARRIAGES BETWEEN RUSSIAN WOMEN AND AMERICAN MEN

After 30 years of living and working in Russia and observing many romances between Russian women and western men, I decided to begin a study of this phenomenon. The focus of the study is the so-called Mail Order Bride who is courted via mail and electronic means and periodic, though typically brief, personal visits.

Background: I am a UK born, Canadian and US citizen. Was married for over 40 years to my childhood sweetheart and a few years after her death, married a wonderful Russian lady. We have been married for 10 years.

Methodology: By examining the marriage records in selected areas and performing a follow-up examination of public records as well as conducting interviews with individuals and couples, an interesting set of statistics has emerged regarding the characteristics of Russian-American romances. Additionally, many interviews of Russian women were conducted in several metropolitan and a few rural areas to determine the knowledge base and attitudes of the women seeking western men.

Study Participants: Statistical analysis and basic research was performed by students and volunteers. Interviews were conducted by mature same sex persons with professional medical or psychological training. Interviews of Russian women were conducted by native Russian speakers who are well trained in eliciting accurate answers. Conflicting and contradictory statistics and interviews were discarded.

Study Weaknesses: There is no way at this time to insure that any part of the study represents any valid statistical sampling of any group. The general conclusions may only be regarded as indicative and certainly not as definitive. Future analysis and correlation may alter significantly some or all of the indicators presented. Additional data may also alter significantly the statistics. Marriages which occurred overseas are presently excluded, due to the methodology employed.

1483 Russian women who are listed on one or more introduction services were investigated and 345 in depth interviews were conducted. 86 Russian women who would never allow themselves to be listed on any dating service were interviewed in depth. 1721 Russian-American marriages were identified and tracked and 334 in depth interviews were conducted with both spouses (or former spouses). Additionally, 217 men were interviewed whose spouse or former spouse refused to be interviewed. Marriages from 1 January, 1996, through 31 December, 2001, were included in the study. This study began in June of 1997 and continues to this day.


A few interesting results:
1.   Less than 40% of the men who marry Russian women participate in internet discussion groups on the topic.
2.   Over 98% of the women seeking western husbands via introduction services are aware of the ability to file violence charges against a western man
3.   84% of the women seeking western husbands via introduction services have no moral or ethical qualms about false domestic violence charges if it serves their purposes.
4.   Currently, 52% of marriages fail within a year. 67% fail within two years. This is a considerable increase from the beginning of the study.
5.   Male "Positive thinking" advocates have a higher overall failure rate in the first two years than the "Negative thinkers."
6.   60% of the women did not love their husbands when they married
7.   99% of the men 'loved' their wives when they married.
8.   Marriages that result from a proposal during or just after an initial meeting of a month or less fail within two years 92% of the time.
9.   Marriages that result from a proposal during or just after an initial meeting of two weeks or less fail within two years 97% of the time.
10.   Marriages that involved a woman in a rebound state (new serious relationship which began less than six months after the breakup of a relationship) failed within two years 89% of the time.
11.   Marriages that involved men in a rebound state (new serious relationship which began less than ONE YEAR after the breakup of a significant prior relationship) failed within two years 94% of the time.
12.   Marriages that resulted from 'normal' introductions among women who would never allow themselves to be registered with an introduction agency failed within two years 11% of the time (but the number of these is quite small).

At the beginning of the study the common wisdom in Russia was that a woman should simply marry the first marginally acceptable male and suffer for two years until the permanent residency was assured (Day 731 syndrome).  A major shift happened in Russia early in 2000 and the emphasis has increasingly been to grab the first gullible male, and file a DV charge as soon as practical or whenever justified.

[Gator]

Warning to those who try to tweak the numbers:  I have knowledge of statistical analysis, and when I first read the results, I looked for discrepancies and biases as part of seeking a plausible explanation that "my situation would be different."  For example, I initially thought that "one week wonders" distorted the overall picture, and their removal would show a much lower divorce rate for couples with longer introduction periods.  This was not the case - there were two mutually exclusive groups. 

[William3rd]

Brutal numbers in that survey but probably true. I am really bummed to see that kind of result from someone that took the time to really run a study. My gut feeling was more generous than that survey result.

[TexasBoar]

3.   84% of the women seeking western husbands via introduction services have no moral or ethical qualms about false domestic violence charges if it serves their purposes.

Ouch. 

~Boar

[Bruce]

Gator, are we that skewed a population on this board?  It seems to me that the married guys on this board are staying married longer than two years for sure and many, many more years and counting.  What is the explanation for that?  Also, most, or at least a high percentage of the married guys on this board met with the help of an agency (not tours) in some way, so what gives???

[BC]

Gator, are we that skewed a population on this board?  It seems to me that the married guys on this board are staying married longer than two years for sure and many, many more years and counting.  What is the explanation for that?  Also, most, or at least a high percentage of the married guys on this board met with the help of an agency (not tours) in some way, so what gives???

Well we would be in the 40 percent or less that frequent RW related fora.. I would put myself down as a nr. 12 type relationship and there seems to be a reasonable number of these hanging around..

My take.. yes skewed as far as RWD members are concerned.. as to the rest, well.. just add an 'r' after the 'k'.

[jb]

Quite right, BC.  We are indeed skewed.  I'm also a #12, with 5 years married.  Perhaps this simply means that whatever experience we have gleaned of the process is not applicable to the mainstream board reader.

Well, shut my mouth~!

[groovlstk]

A few interesting results:
1.   Less than 40% of the men who marry Russian women participate in internet discussion groups on the topic.
5.   Male "Positive thinking" advocates have a higher overall failure rate in the first two years than the "Negative thinkers."

I think these two statistics are closely related. I know there are a few cheerleaders here who like to think their optimism can overcome any barrier, but after reading a few horror stories and discovering the degree of difficulty most of the married guys endured to get where they are, it's almost impossible for most forum readers not to exhibit a healthy degree of skepticism.

[viking]

Over 98% of the women seeking western husbands via introduction services are aware of the ability to file violence charges against a western man
84% of the women seeking western husbands via introduction services have no moral or ethical qualms about false domestic violence charges if it serves their purposes.

Holy Crap!!!

[Bruno]

Over 98% of the women seeking western husbands via introduction services are aware of the ability to file violence charges against a western man
84% of the women seeking western husbands via introduction services have no moral or ethical qualms about false domestic violence charges if it serves their purposes.

Holy Crap!!!

Hmmm... change the term "Western" in "Western man" and "Western husbands" by "American"...

Here, violence charges can only be make when it is real... never hear here from "moral domestic violence" when a man refuse to agree with his wife... only the real physical violence is punish... and only after a process where evidence are show... and the wife is not rewarded by a automatic green card...

Now, all RW who date/marry a American via agency will be explain everything about DV... read story where innocent guys was accused, where the immigration service don't make any control and where the RW receive the green card...

In some way, it is like you give the plan of your house alarm system to potential thief, along with the home key for bonus... don't be surprised to find your home empty some day...

Last year, i have find a site ( he don't exist anymore ) on narod.ru who explain to RW how to screw American men with false DV charges and how receive later a green card... everything was explain, link to different women shelter, how to inflict themself some scare without be too much painfull...

Your laws have open the Pandora box... don't be surprised that all leech from the world are attract by the sh!t who is inside...

[viking]

Bruno

You are so right.

[PeeWee]

Gator, has anyone preformed this same study on Asian/American marriages? How do American/American statistics compare item for item? I am suggesting that these statistics may not be unique of RW/Am relationships but more germanie to all marriages where a foreign bride is involved. I had also read somewhere that all foreign women as advised by the INS of their legal rights with regards to domestic violence which means of course the percent would be near 100%. Some obviously were not listening when that class was held.

Peewee

[jb]

I had also read somewhere that all foreign women as advised by the INS of their legal rights with regards to domestic violence which means of course the percent would be near 100%.

Sorry, Peewee, but you are 100% incorrect in this.

At no time during this process does the foreign woman have any contact with the BCIS (old INS) until she goes for the AOS interview.  In that case she is in the presence of her husband at all times, never in a closed session where "dirty little secrets" are disclosed.  All contact with American officials up to that point are at the U.S. State Department level, i.e., Embassy and Consular people who do the visa (K-1 or K-3) interview.   If a U.S. Government official ever did such an underhanded thing as advise a foreigner to take advantage of the law for personal gain, that official would themself wind up behind bars eventually.  It just ain't done.

No sir, I fear that the "dirty little secret" everyone is so shy about mentioning is the quality of the women being brought over.   To borrow a phrase from Gator, "Wal-Mart Cashier" types populate the MOB catalogs overwhelmingly. I'm not saying they can't be cute, I am saying that unless you speak Russian or they speak English, you are a complete fool to trust them.  I am not surprised at seeing these numbers at all, after all,,, these people have never had anything more than the most superficial conversation between them, and in many cases that was conducted through an interpreter.  I further suspect that beneath all those sad stats lies an even bigger truth, MOB agencies themselves are the major source of this DV kind of information to the girls in the catalogs.  While the agency may smile and congratulate him, they have also handed her a double barreled shotgun, fully loaded, and aimed right at the stupid, trusting, nieve AM's guts.

You guys wonder why I'm opposed to the use of agencies, well,,, there you go.