Estonia and Russia Situation

[WmGO]

Looks like it is heating up. Russia just cut off gas to Estonia. EU is protesting. This is going to get interesting. There was also an incident at the Estonian Embassy in Moscow. 

[Rvrwind]

I made mention of this sometime back:

Russia just cut off gas to Estonia.

Not this particular incident but that Russia is negotiating with Germany & other countries to take over their piplines & some refineries. They must be crazy to even consider such a move. Russia will not hesitate to cut them off anytime they get the bloody urge. They don't give a rats ass about their own people living right here in Russia, what makes you think they give a rats ass about anybody else!!
Letting Russia expand their power into Europe is akin to letting a wolf loose in the henhouse! Damn stupid!

[WmGO]

Agree 100%.

Bottom line: A leopard cannot change it's spots. Hence foreign and domestic economic policy must always be grounded in this fundamental reality.

Prediction: If the current Kremlin leadership trend continues I forsee the banning of marriage agencies and the prohibiton of Russian women being allowed to leave the country to marry foreignors.

[William3rd]

Its all about the money. . . . .

Russia offers a taste at a good price and the merchants grab it and get addicted. Sort of like a drug dealer-or the IMF.

Estonia can get natural gas elsewhere- but at what cost?

Hopefully a resolution can be reached in a day or so.

[Rvrwind]

Estonia can get natural gas elsewhere- but at what cost?

That is now, but the way Gazprom is setting things up they will be in control of all the pipelines in Europe & 60% of the refineries. Nothing will move unless they kiss Russia's behind!
Gazprom is buying up all the gas they can from all the middle east countries they can trying to corner the market & put it all in their hands. If they succeed I predict that Euorpeans are going to experience some very cold winters in the future if they don't tow the party line!
A leopards spots are on the outside, inside its still a leopard & as deadly as ever, JMHO.

[WmGO]

Maybe we should just gang up with China and b*tch slap them by taking over the Far East. We can split it 50/50 

[Simoni]

Agree 100%.

Bottom line: A leopard cannot change it's spots. Hence foreign and domestic economic policy must always be grounded in this fundamental reality.

Prediction: If the current Kremlin leadership trend continues I forsee the banning of marriage agencies and the prohibiton of Russian women being allowed to leave the country to marry foreignors.

Oh, no!  Better hope the One Week Wonders don't read your post, William! It wil be the excuse they need to act now, before the gate clangs shut!    LOL

[andrewfi]

Russia has NOT suspended gas supplies to Estonia.

Where does this stuff come from.

In English petrol=gasoline whch for Americans is gas. My guess is that some American has misunderstood what he or she read.

What has happened is that the rail line that carries petroleum (gasoline) and other oil products to Europe via Estonia has been closed for repairs. This is almost certainly a politically motivated piece of maintenance. Coal is not being delivered due to a shortage of rail cars - again likely politically motivated. But, also, Russia is building its own oil terminals on the Gulf of Finland. These will bypass Estonia anyway. As much as anything else this 'disruption' serves as advertisment for these facilities.

By acting in this manner it is obvious that the Russian powers that be are expressing their ire, but in a manner that need not leave permanent marks.

The Estonian government has acted in an incredibly insensitive manner and is now attempting to cover over the cracks. The bronze warrior and the attendant war graves were symbols of a conflicting view of history, both valid. Removal of the memorial will do nothing to reconcile those conflicting views.

Yes, it is true that there are other motives, on both sides, for this situation having arisen, my guess is that the Estonians are testing the EU as much as they were tugging the beard of their Russian neighbours.

Trade is an instrument of foreign policy, it would be surprising if Russia, unlike its neighbours and trading partners around the globe chose to NOT use this tool.

[I/O]

Trade is an instrument of foreign policy,

Andrew:  No dispute with anything you say, as in the first instance, I havn't a clue about the "On the ground" situation there right now other than what is reported in the media which is usually a fraction of the facts.  Nevertheless, I have scratched my head as to why the said monument needs to be removed.  Seems like a bit of political grandstanding by the tail trying to wag the dog.

However, I have some doubts about your general comment as quoted above.  From my observations, I think in many cases, practically speaking, it is the other way around.

I/O

[jb]

From my observations, I think in many cases, practically speaking, it is the other way around.

Agreed,,, the most practical application of government is to grease the skids of commerce, to pave the way for trade.  Trade embargoes rarely work as planned, usually cutting off the noses to spite the face.  Embargoed nations seem to always manage to create another alliance to get the needed goods and services, i.e., there's always another 'ho on the street. 

I'd think the EU nations would have figured that out by now.   

[BC]

I'd think the EU nations would have figured that out by now.   

Well.. some seem to apply 'if you can't beat 'em, join 'em' principle..

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070404/russia_yukos.html?.v=11

[Rvrwind]

Trade is an instrument of foreign policy, it would be surprising if Russia, unlike its neighbours and trading partners around the globe chose to NOT use this tool.

Sorry but I disagreee. They will use it & they will wield the power. Anybody who thinks otherwise is deluding themselves.

Well.. some seem to apply 'if you can't beat 'em, join 'em' principle..

Exactly & as long as they behave themselves they will not get stomped on but should they decide to piss Russia off you can bet they will pay the price.
You cannot look at the Russian government like you can governments of the west or other democracies. These guy's are thieves who will take & take until you bleed & not give two sh!ts about who gets hurt in the process. History has proven it & history continues. These guys in power now have given the people a small taste of democracy, a very small taste. Just enough to keep the people happy & not coming down on them. Sooner or later they will open their eyes & see Putin & his cronies for the lieing sacks of crap that they truly are.
History will tell the tale, although I likely won't be here to see it.

[WmGO]

Andrew,

The day I started this thread I read about the cutoff in either the New York Times, Wallstreet Journal or Washington Post. I cannot remember which. Yes, I understand the difference between what Americans call gas (gasoline) and what the rest of the world calls gas (natural gas) . I may have misread which of the two was cut off, but the article stated that delivery of some type of fuel had been stopped  -  classic Russian fuel as a weapon foreign policy.

Re the monument removal, that matter is well documented and easily understood. Yes, it would have been easier to just leave it - but it is *Estonian* territory so the ONLY relevant consideration is the ESTONIAN one, i.e., for *them* the Soviet-Russian monument does not symbolize what it does for the Russians. As such, they had every right to move it's location. The Russian reaction only goes to show Russia's true colors vis a vis the Baltic nations: ethnocentric bully.

[BC]

Andrew,

The day I started this thread I read about the cutoff in either the New York Times, Wallstreet Journal or Washington Post. I cannot remember which. Yes, I understand the difference between what Americans call gas (gasoline) and what the rest of the world calls gas (natural gas) . I may have misread which of the two was cut off, but the article stated that delivery of some type of fuel had been stopped  -  classic Russian fuel as a weapon foreign policy.

Re the monument removal, that matter is well documented and easily understood. Yes, it would have been easier to just leave it - but it is *Estonian* territory so the ONLY relevant consideration is the ESTONIAN one, i.e., for *them* the Soviet-Russian monument does not symbolize what it does for the Russians. As such, they had every right to move it's location. The Russian reaction only goes to show Russia's true colors vis a vis the Baltic nations: ethnocentric bully.

Well.. there are some precedents.. anyone remember the grain embargo the US imposed in 1980?

http://www.foreignaffairs.org/19800901faessay8154/robert-l-paarlberg/lessons-of-the-grain-embargo.html

Regarding the monument, lets consider a hypothetical..

Let's say sometime in the future Luxembourg decided that Patton and the 5000+ US soldiers buried at the American Cemetary had to be moved to make way for a new airport runway..

How do you think the US would react?

[WmGO]

BC,

Both scenarios are different.

The U.S grain embargo (which I thought was bad policy) was designed to make a public statement of protest over the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan (an invasion of conquest to prop up their Communist puppet). The Russian policy in Estonia is nothing more than a continuation of its historic imperialistic desires to control the Baltics, in addition to being ethnocentric racism AND a complete failure to recognize and ADMIT that they were tyrannical despotic occupiers of the Baltic States for almost 50 years.

In the second situation, the U.S. would obviosuly be upset but the U.S. did not seek to conquer and occupy Europe with it's involvement in WWII. In point of fact America was Europe's liberator. By contrast, the Soviet Russian Union entered into a Razor Pact with Hitler shortly before the outbreak of WWII whereby the Germans and the Russians agreed to carve up Poland and allow the Russians to seize and occupy the Baltic States (which the Russians always coveted). When the Soviets ran out the Germans they had the moral obligation to withdraw out of Poland and the Baltics but rather stayed as totalitarian conquerers murdering or sending to the gulags any Estonian, Latvian or Lithuanian who protested.


   

[jb]

Let's say sometime in the future Luxembourg decided that Patton and the 5000+ US soldiers buried at the American Cemetary had to be moved to make way for a new airport runway..

How do you think the US would react?

Probably about the same way we reacted when the French told us we ought to remove our trash, (American dead) from Normandy.  I'm still boycotting all things french as a result of that and a few other things they've done.

[Gator]

JB,

Conservative Nicolas Sarkozy just won the French election.  He had the audacity to shake Bush's hand and to campaign for less labor protection and less taxes. 

Our relations should improve if we can take some positive steps with reagrd to global warming initiatives.

[I/O]

Probably about the same way we reacted when the French told us we ought to remove our trash, (American dead) from Normandy.  I'm still boycotting all things french as a result of that and a few other things they've done.

Right on here brother....!!!!  We lost 18000 on French soil trying to help the useless bastards get their patch of turf back.  Yes I know others lost many more but on population base percentages that is the highest of any allied country who tried to help them out.  French grattitude? Build an airport over one of the war cemetaries where a goodly number of our blokes are buried.  Surprise surprise. 

They argue and grandstand and half the softcocks in the world bow and scrape to them wherever and whenever.  For what?  Other than Airbus, (Which BTW is largely British technology) I would ask what useful thing they have contributed tot he world economy?  Oh yes perfume?  Wonder why they are experts at making anti smell products? Sit next to one on a plane for 3 or 4 hours and you'll soon figure.

I/O

[Kuna]

 

I/O... tell us how you REALLY feel!

I agree though... couldn't have said it better.

[BC]

BC,

Both scenarios are different.

WmGo,

Of course.... everything is different....

Doesn't disregard of similarities defeat the purpose of history?  Here we are talking about political powers using trade limitations to achieve their goals.

Yes, the US helped liberate Europe, but were not THE liberators.  Fact is that the US wanted to remain neutral (as did the Soviets), and did not want to interfere until the attack on Pearl Harbor by the Japanese (retaliating for an oil and iron embargo and other sanctions). With the majority of German forces fighting on the Eastern front, the Russians ultimately played a much greater role (and loss of life) defeating Germany than the US.  Berlin surrendered to whom? - none other than the Soviets.

Also don't forget that the Warsaw Pact was formed in response to the formation of NATO which included US participation.  I guess one could debate who really started the 'Cold War', but that's another topic.

It is interesting how the history books I studied (in US schools during the Cold War) did not seem to adequately reflect what really went on, but I guess that was par for the course those days.  I can certainly understand your views, but suggest a bit of investigation.

Trade barriers played important roles if not root causes of both WW I and WW II.

I/O your favorite term 'softcock' to describe anyone with views different than yours is really beginning to grate.  BTW, do you even know where Luxembourg is?

[I/O]

I/O your favorite term 'softcock' to describe anyone with views different than yours is really beginning to grate.  BTW, do you even know where Luxembourg is?

BC:  Two comments thus two responses.

Too bad and yes.

I/O