Ukraine Sevastopol as Future Target

[kievstar]

One thing not talked about during the Georgia / Russia skirmish is the fact that the Russian navy left Sevastopol to get involved.  This means in the future when a country gets involved with Russia, Sevastopol may be the first location attacked.  Not sure how people in Sevastopol will think of Russia when there city gets bombed.  I have been in Sevastopol a lot and people are very pro Russian but it is lightly guarded.  Very easy target to attack. 

I do not think this is a question of if but when an attack on the Russian navy happens.  I see Georgia acting like the terrorists in the future.  Really do not know who you are fighting.  Georgia has a military budget of $900 million a year compared to Russia's $40 billion.  Should be interesting for Russia in the future as there going to have to spend a lot more than that to protect themselves as they showed there playing hand on how they fight (navy and airplanes and missiles like USA).

Countries will not fight them head to head but rather more strategic like terrorists (meaning if you do not have the money or resources you have to fight in a hide and seek way).

Not sure Russia's economy is ready for this but they better start spending a lot more than $40 billion a year.  Probably closer to $400B.  By the way Ukraine's GDP is less than $100 billion and infrastructure is terrible.  There struggling just to host a  regional soccer tournament(Euro 2012).  How hard is it to do that.

I have personal interest in this as I am in the process of buying an apartment on the black sea in Sevastopol.  The builder who is building about 60 units on the black seas has already given 20% off in the past 2 days.  I think I may wait a little specially since the Euro is tanking right now against the $ (apartments are in Euros).  USA is usually the first country to enter bad economic times and the first to come out of it.  Past week has been very good for the USA. 

[wxman]

It's already started. Ukraine fired the first salvo with a presidential decree.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1218446193667&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[Shadow]

So you rent a house and because the landlord does not like what you did to some friend he changes the lock ?
Sounds like a very weak argument.

[kievstar]

Hi Shadow, can you explain what your saying?

[BC]

I think the vessels will return whenever they want.  What's Ukraine going to do.. start sinking ships?

[Lit_1nce]

Well, Ukraine doesn't say they can't return to port, just that Russia has to give 10 days advance notice..  Not sure of the reasoning behind this.. unless it's to make sure that they are actually returning to port and not attacking ?? .. or.. maybe to let the military personnel cool down some before they come raging into their town as the victors ??

[Shadow]

kievstar, Ukraine has no reason to stop the ships returning to their port. The ports and access are leased by Russia, and if Ukraine believes they can give such orders it is exactly as I posted above.
Ukraine is the landlord. Just because they are not happy with what happened in Georgia does not mean they can change the lock on the port they rented.

[I/O]

Shadow: Your comments defy logic. Russia has effectively changed the lock on a few gates recently and you suggest Ukraine can't? Ukraine, as any landlord can, with reason, terminate the lease. I believe Ukraine has every reason to do just that, however, I highly doubt they actually will. There is a fair amount of grandstanding attached to this one. BTW on a news report I saw this evening, Yevchenco (SP?) said, and if I understood him correctly, which I believe I did, Ukraine was considering a 3 day advance request for permission of entry from the Russian fleet.

10 days - 3 days - be nice to us and we'll let you in anyway. Hello Uki, winter's coming and Russia has one hand on the gas taps................hot politics can turn awfully cold in a few weeks.

I/O

[Diplomacy]

Well, Ukraine doesn't say they can't return to port, just that Russia has to give 10 days advance notice..  Not sure of the reasoning behind this.. unless it's to make sure that they are actually returning to port and not attacking ?? .. or.. maybe to let the military personnel cool down some before they come raging into their town as the victors ??

Yes, to both IMO.  Remember also that Russia has a long term lease to the port.  It is a point of contention, and may be a tactic to increase the amount they are now willing to pay.  They upped the gas contract price, Ukraine will try to up the lease.

There are a lot of factors, and nobody is innocent here.  It is fair to conclude that if Russia uses tactics of war in the name of protecting their Nationals, then that could tactic could be used on Ukraine.

There are a lot of Russian Nationals, in the Ukraine.  G7 has spoken, and Russia is saying one thing and doing what they please.  It is not going to be seen as peace keeping defense in the minds of the G7 that oppose.

Strategic bombing and using a gun in a knife fight, is the best explanation of what the views are of the G7 now.

[kievstar]

Thanks Shadow for explanation.

I am not sure how Ukraine could stop Russia from going to Sevastopol.  Ukraine really has no military down there and most of Sevastopol works in one way another for the Russian Navy.  Russia dos not really need to say anything about the pre notice of leaving.  Ukraine cannot do anything about it besides talking in the paper and news.  When Russia wants to leave or enter they will do as they want. 

Interesting to see what type of reactions American men and French men will get from Sevastopol girls.  Probably better for guys from these countries not to spark up a relationship with girls from here until things cool down in 6 months.  Sevastopol girls tend to be very passionate about Russia.  I mention French people as people I know in Sevastopol Ukraine think France is just as guilty with the USA in this.  I think because they constantly see French president on television.  In 6 months in Russian history books it will be the war Russia won against France and the USA.  And how the West betrays former allies like Georgia. 

[wxman]

I don't think Ukraine has any intention of stopping the Russian fleet from returning. By making the decree, the president of Ukraine is going to use that to show Russia has a total disregard for laws of other nations. This is for world display and to give Russia another black eye. A game of politics.

[Shadow]

I don't think Ukraine has any intention of stopping the Russian fleet from returning. By making the decree, the president of Ukraine is going to use that to show Russia has a total disregard for laws of other nations. This is for world display and to give Russia another black eye. A game of politics.

Perhaps Russia can make a counter law that obliges Ukraine to pay their gas before delivery due to their bad payment history.
Of course that would once again be bullying by Russa and unfair towards Ukraine. Tell me what would Russia have to do not to be pointed at as guilty ? Elect Bushov as president ?

[Lit_1nce]

BTW on a news report I saw this evening, Yevchenco (SP?) said, and if I understood him correctly, which I believe I did, Ukraine was considering a 3 day advance request for permission of entry from the Russian fleet.
I/O

I/O I got the 10 days from the article wxman posted above.

[Kuna]

Don't know if you guys know but several weeks ago (maybe 2 months) Yushchenko announced he would not be renewing the leases for the navy base after the current term.

He is looking little more than a terrorist IMHO... except the people he is attacking is his own people (especially the local population of ethnic russians around the base). 

The bl00dy UKR govt still can't provide a decent standard of living for it's own citizens - for God's sake not even hot water throughout winter last year in Dnepropetrovsk - and they boot Russia out.  It's estimated the navy base injects $100m per year into the local economy but in it's wisdom the govt says it doesn't need it.

It's fine to be patriotic (just like our american friends), but when their obsession starts hurting their own people you've got to wonder what really motivates them.

Spending millions on changing street names and parks (from Russian names to Ukr names) is one thing... promoting Ukrainian Language can also be understod to an extent...  but starving the ethnic Russians within your own country is really something else!

Presidential elections are coming up...  Let's hope Ukraine votes with their heads this time.

[dispozo]

http://blog.kievukraine.info/2008/08/georgia-blockade-threat-risks.html

[Ronnie]

Presidential elections are coming up...  Let's hope Ukraine votes with their heads this time.

Holy Kuchma, Batman!  Did you really write that Kuna?

You think it was wrong for Ukrainians to boot the Kremlin's thugs out?   Obviously not.

[Ronnie]

Don't know if you guys know but several weeks ago (maybe 2 months) Yushchenko announced he would not be renewing the leases for the navy base after the current term.

He is looking little more than a terrorist IMHO... except the people he is attacking is his own people (especially the local population of ethnic russians around the base). 

The bl00dy UKR govt still can't provide a decent standard of living for it's own citizens - for God's sake not even hot water throughout winter last year in Dnepropetrovsk - and they boot Russia out.  It's estimated the navy base injects $100m per year into the local economy but in it's wisdom the govt says it doesn't need it.

It's fine to be patriotic (just like our american friends), but when their obsession starts hurting their own people you've got to wonder what really motivates them.

Spending millions on changing street names and parks (from Russian names to Ukr names) is one thing... promoting Ukrainian Language can also be understod to an extent...  but starving the ethnic Russians within your own country is really something else!

Au contraire Kuna.  The announcement that the Black Sea Fleet would not remain in Sevastopol was made more than a year ago.  Your assessment of the economic impact on the folks living in Sevastopol a tad flawed.  You assume the base will be abandoned.  Now that would be quite unlikely. 

Sevastopol will become a NATO base soon after the Russians leave in 2017.  Of that there can be little doubt.  Russia will move it's Black Sea Fleet to it's new port on the Russian coast.  So what then?

Will those who work currently for the Russian Fleet be impoverished, or will they see their paychecks increased in size?  Obviously the latter.  What of the other businesses in Crimea?  Does a Russian sailor's salary compare to that of an Italian or German sailor's.  Obviously not.  Service in the Russian military is the closest thing to indentured servitude you can find in Europe.

Any administration of Ukraine that would promote the extension of the current lease agreement would clearly not have his/her country's economic welfare in mind.

[Swisskid]

I would have to concur with Ronnie.  I was in Sevastopol for 5 days in May and the naval port infrastructure was not too impressive.  Compared to the Norfolk, Virginia (near where I live) home port of the US Atlantic Fleet infrastructure, it is night and day difference.  In Sevastopol they pretty much anchor ships haphazardly all over the harbor.  It may have been due to the Victory Day celebrations that there were more ships in port than normal, but NATO would bring a wealth of capital improvements and cash infusions into the Sevastopol port economy and upgrade the facilities to world-class status.  There were rusting hulks all over the place and most of the Russian sailors I saw on the streets were window shopping, not spending money in shops or restaurants, other than a few officers. 

[Ronnie]

One of the things that is missing in this discussion is the fact that we don't have access to the agreement (maybe it's on the net somewhere but I doubt it).  Is it not possible that the terms require the base to be used only for defensive purposes or that the Ukrainian president can revoke the lease under certain conditions such as Russian hostility toward Ukraine.  I would think so.

Putin has already made not-so-veiled threats against Ukraine if it joins NATO.  He said in Bucharest that "Ukraine would cease to exist as a country"  Leaving others to interpret his meaning.  This is where thugs like Putin get their jollies...bragging, threatening, beating up on opponents who cannot defend themselves.

[Diplomacy]

Putin must be steaming at this point.  Poland and Ukraine just agreed to the  defense shield.  Man do I pick a great time to visit.  Of course they still need the votes to approve in Poland.  I do not have good details on Ukraine status.

[Ronnie]

Putin's actions of late will move the fence sitters in Poland, Ukraine and elsewhere.  He's shot himself in the foot.

[Diplomacy]

Ahh, he will now be accountable for his actions.  Should have listened when the G7 said to stop.  IMO it will be the G7 going forward for a while not the G8.

[Ronnie]

And Putin's Russia will not become a member of the WTO.  He will lose his veto in the UN Security Council.  He can veto all he wants and the rest with just proceed irrespective of Russia. 

[I/O]

He will lose his veto in the UN Security Council.  He can veto all he wants and the rest with just proceed irrespective of Russia.

Ronnie: I don't think that is a given at this stage, not by a long chalk.

I/O

[Ronnie]

Ronnie: I don't think that is a given at this stage, not by a long chalk.
I/O

I know you're right Mat, but someone said, I think it was Aussie Michael Ware on CNN, that there's not a thing the west to do about this invasion.  I was simply pointing out that there are many things that can be done short of asking NATO's air forces to create another "highway of death".  Those are just regular boys in those tanks.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Highway_of_death.jpg