The Future of FR-US Relations

[Ronnie]

In another thread I incorrectly predicted Obama would chose a woman (Sibelius) as his running mate and McCain would choose Romney. 

Both men surprised me.  I didn't understand the depth of Obama's insecurity about his ability to handle the job.  I was surprised by McCain's choice.  To be honest, I never heard of Palin until late Thursday night when I was searching the internet for some late leaks of whom McCain would name.  I was taken to a forum where people were throwing out their ideas on who it would or should be.  One guy kept saying "Sarah Palin".  At first I dismissed his comment as some off the wall comment.  Then I decided to google the name and found out who she was.  I watched her on several Youtube videos including one by Bill Kristol extolling the idea of her as a running mate for McCain.

The more I read and watched, the more I thought..it might be a good idea but it won't happen..  I was sure McCain had tipped his hand when he named longtime Romney pal and ebay CEO Meg Whitman as one of his most rusted advisors during the Rick Warren forum.  I think when Obama named a man as his VP pick, McCain seized the opportunity to name a woman and surprised the world with his pick.

Now, bringing this to US-RF relations for the future, most of you know that Putin made the rather extraordinary claim that the Georgian invasion was "orchestrated" by Bush to win support among the electorate for McCain (without naming McCain).  I'm not sure what Putin's purpose was in making his allegations except to feed his own internal propaganda machine.  It seems these days that any silly charge against the United States is taken as gospel within the RF.

If Putin continues to build this anti-American sentiment with the Russian community, I'm wondering if the BS will be eventually  piled so high that it will collapse in on itself. 

As to who will occupy the white house in January, it seems that the naming of a dynamic woman on the Republican ticket has been a stroke of genius by McCain (and his advisors).  Not because she's a woman but...what a woman!  This Palin lady has it all with a lot left over.  I can't see Obama/Biden pulling off a victory now.  Obama took and slap a women by not naming one (Hilary would have been logical) while McCain held out his hand and said, "Come hither."  Brilliant counter move, IMHO. 

I've been wrong before so you never know but the defining issue this fall will be reliable sources of energy (thank you Vlad) and she is the only one on either ticket who is fully in support of tapping the oil in ANWR and is uniquely qualified to speak to the issue. 

Palin recently commented that the misguided concerns for the polar bear are just that..misguided.  She pointed out that the polar bear population is growing by leaps and bounds, thank you.  I think she'll be able to persuade McCain to change his position on ANWR and that one issue could get them elected as the vast majority of Americans are strongly in favor of drilling there. 

So for now, I'm going to assume that McCain will be the one Putin will have to deal with.  How will the relations between our two countries change?

[Shadow]

The FR-US relations have nothing to do with Putin. Perhaps check on Sarkozy for that ? 

Now, bringing this to US-RF relations for the future, most of you know that Putin made the rather extraordinary claim that the Georgian invasion was "orchestrated" by Bush to win support among the electorate for McCain (without naming McCain).  I'm not sure what Putin's purpose was in making his allegations except to feed his own internal propaganda machine.  It seems these days that any silly charge against the United States is taken as gospel within the RF.

Well it has worked fine the other way for a long time, why would it not be beneficial to use the same tactic ?

While I am too far from American politics to judge, the choice does not surprise me.
Obama chose the most Republican candidate, to even out his weaknesses. There for it is only logical that McCain will use a similar tactic to appeal to the floating voters. There must be Democrats disappointed not to be able to elect a female in to the White House, and a female vice-president might be second best.

The name McCain is here more associated with frozen foods as with politics so far. It is sure to create some quick jokes. 

[Ronnie]

Well it has worked fine the other way for a long time, why would it not be beneficial to use the same tactic ?

While I am too far from American politics to judge, the choice does not surprise me.
Obama chose the

Shadow, if you are saying that there has been a campaign to demonize Russia in the eyes of Americans, then it's true, you really are far away.  I would have to say that the Bush people have gone to great lengths to downplay or even hide Putin's devilish activities.  For example, the Mosad reported that the Russians were busy moving WMD out of Iraq before the war broke out.  Nobody but the most obscure websites reported that as the WH has tried to not re-ignite another cold war. 

Putin had Bush pegged, properly, as a fool and has taken full advantage of it as his latest episode in Georgia demonstrates.  Georgia, however was the proverbial bridge too far.

McCain will not be protective of Putin's or the Kremlin's reputation - as Bush was.  In fact, I think McCain understands the brutality of such vile men and knows how to deal with them, where Bush (and Clinton) did not.

[Shadow]

  For example, the Mosad reported that the Russians were busy moving WMD out of Iraq before the war broke out.  

[I/O]

If Putin continues to build this anti-American sentiment with the Russian community, I'm wondering if the BS will be eventually  piled so high that it will collapse in on itself.

That's a given. The Russian halls of power have always taken sancturary in keeping the people underinformed. It eventually collapses each time around. Then the cycle starts all over again. The current situation is IMO demonstrating that Russia never changes. I remarked a year or so back that I thought it had missed a window of opportunity for real change and now I think it has nailed shutters over that window. Change does not serve the interests of the ruling elite and the ruling elite in Russia have never exactly extended themselves in favour of the ordinary folk. Nothing much changes and life goes on.

The relationship between the two countries mentioned in this thread has moved to megaphone diplomacy and I suspect that is pretty much where it will stay for quite some time.

I/O

[BC]

Ronnie,

What's McCain's or for that matter Obama's plan regarding Georgia? A louder megaphone?.. a larger thesarus?.. that's it?

Putin had Bush pegged, properly, as a fool and has taken full advantage of it as his latest episode in Georgia demonstrates.  Georgia, however was the proverbial bridge too far.

McCain will not be protective of Putin's or the Kremlin's reputation - as Bush was.  In fact, I think McCain understands the brutality of such vile men and knows how to deal with them, where Bush (and Clinton) did not.

[Misha]

Palin recently commented that the misguided concerns for the polar bear are just that..misguided.  She pointed out that the polar bear population is growing by leaps and bounds, thank you.  I think she'll be able to persuade McCain to change his position on ANWR

I am not sure what the link is between ANWR and polar bears. Polar bears live most of their lives on the sea ice and are only on shore when the ice melts and they spend most of that time fasting. The issue at ANWR is caribou and caribou calving grounds.

But, when it comes to the future of RF and US relations, and the BS being piled high, Putin IMO is faced with one challenge that the Soviet Union did not have to deal with: the internet. At the beginning of his reign, the internet was not very widespread in Russia: few had the internet at home or even at work. The numbers, however, have grown even if it is still far the rates we find in Europe, North America and much of Asia. Like the Soviet Union, television has been largely tamed and is under Kremlin control, the printed media is being put on a leash (remember what happened to the newspaper that reported that Putin was divorced and secretly in a relationship with the gymnast), but the internet is still capable of disseminating information that the Kremlin would prefer to keep quiet. I am convinced this is something that Putin/Medvedev will be dealing with in the near future. They were already talking last year about making a made-in-Russia internet network that would isolate the Russian internet from the rest of the world.

[OlgaH]

If Putin continues to build this anti-American sentiment with the Russian community...

Analogically. If US Government will stop its anti-Russia scary sentiments along with double standards with the American community and will move towards constructive dialog with Russia without threats and attempts to put pressure on Russia...   

[OlgaH]

Just a joke 

Why Bush wages wars?

He tries to gap in Americans' education of geography. Americans now know that there are such countries as Iraq and Iran in the World. Americans even have started to guess that it is two different countries and soon they will be able to find them on the World map.

[steviej]

Now, bringing this to US-RF relations for the future, most of you know that Putin made the rather extraordinary claim that the Georgian invasion was "orchestrated" by Bush to win support among the electorate for McCain (without naming McCain).  I'm not sure what Putin's purpose was in making his allegations except to feed his own internal propaganda machine.  It seems these days that any silly charge against the United States is taken as gospel within the RF.

Putin is more likely right than wrong on that. There's no doubt in my mind that the neo con Republicans are trying to escalate tensions with Russia before the election. You don't see that at all ??   

If Putin continues to build this anti-American sentiment with the Russian community, I'm wondering if the BS will be eventually  piled so high that it will collapse in on itself. 

It's the US that is vigorously trying to build anit-Russian sentiment. And from the sound of many of the posts in these threads, they are succeeding.

Palin recently commented that the misguided concerns for the polar bear are just that..misguided.  She pointed out that the polar bear population is growing by leaps and bounds, thank you.  I think she'll be able to persuade McCain to change his position on ANWR and that one issue could get them elected as the vast majority of Americans are strongly in favor of drilling there. 

The problem is Americans have made the incorrect default assumption that somehow "American" oil is for Americans. It's not. The oil companies will pump, refine and sell it on the global market for as much as they can get. That's just business as usual for the global oil industry. The percent of the world market that would be represented by this "American" oil is small, and wouldn't affect prices too much. So, its just a scam to make Americans think they'll be benefitting in some way, while we deplete our essential oil that may be needed in some future world conflict by our military.

I would support oil development if: controls ensured that this oil was only used for domestic purposes, that is is price controlled to be signifianctly lower than the prevailing world rates, but I doubt that would happen. Otherwise, there's no difference.

[wxman]

There has never been a true "relation" between Russia or old Soviet Union, and the USA. There has always been a mutual distrust of each other. Both sides seems more comfortable keeping a cold war going, than actually trying to get along. The continuation of the cold war strengthens the military and intelligence agencies of each country, as it  serves to benefit them with more money. Imaginary enemies are just as powerful a real enemies in getting a big slice of the pie. Generation after generation have been told to distrust the other, and the 2 agencies that keep that fear going, are intelligence and military.

[wxman]

The problem is Americans have made the incorrect default assumption that somehow "American" oil is for Americans. It's not. The oil companies will pump, refine and sell it on the global market for as much as they can get. That's just business as usual for the global oil industry. The percent of the world market that would be represented by this "American" oil is small, and wouldn't affect prices too much.

Very true! In fact oil companies also have very little control on the price of oil. Most of the oil is owned by countries and not companies and thus big oil can't do much about it, other than refining and selling the gas on the global market. Americans are not bright when it comes to oil. They think that by taxing big oil even more, that somehow the prices will come down. In fact just the opposite will occur. Prices will go up, because big oil will do less exploring, because they have less money. With less exploring, there will not be enough oil to meet future demands across world, thus we will see prices continuing to escalate. The energy vision of both Obama and McCain are dismal. Sad to say, but in 4 years the US will be even worse off when it comes to energy.

[BC]

Like the Soviet Union, television has been largely tamed and is under Kremlin control, the printed media is being put on a leash (remember what happened to the newspaper that reported that Putin was divorced and secretly in a relationship with the gymnast), but the internet is still capable of disseminating information that the Kremlin would prefer to keep quiet. I am convinced this is something that Putin/Medvedev will be dealing with in the near future. They were already talking last year about making a made-in-Russia internet network that would isolate the Russian internet from the rest of the world.

Misha,

Restricting and/or controlling media is not new to democracies either.  Governments do have the authority to do so within the framework of their laws.  Besides government, businesses also control media.

At the moment the internet is like the wild wild west.. sort of an anonymous no mans land.. this has already, and will continue to change.

[msmoby_ru]

Analogically. If US Government will stop its anti-Russia scary sentiments along with double standards with the American community and will move towards constructive dialog with Russia without threats and attempts to put pressure on Russia...   

but it's not just the US that is telling Russia it has got it wrong ...  even traditionally "quiet" EU members - relying on Russia for a substantial supply of oil / gas has put their heads above the parapit...

[BC]

but it's not just the US that is telling Russia it has got it wrong ...  even traditionally "quiet" EU members - relying on Russia for a substantial supply of oil / gas has put their heads above the parapit...

Actions speak louder than words.  Rhetoric on this side of the Atlantic was quite nominal and almost silent at the moment prior to higher level meetings.  Lets see what they muster.

[Jack]

  Analogically. If US Government will stop its anti-Russia scary sentiments along with double standards with the American community

Olga, I am curious, can you describe these double standards with the American community you are referring too?

[diverboy70]

But, when it comes to the future of RF and US relations, and the BS being piled high, Putin IMO is faced with one challenge that the Soviet Union did not have to deal with: the internet. At the beginning of his reign, the internet was not very widespread in Russia: few had the internet at home or even at work. The numbers, however, have grown even if it is still far the rates we find in Europe, North America and much of Asia. Like the Soviet Union, television has been largely tamed and is under Kremlin control, the printed media is being put on a leash (remember what happened to the newspaper that reported that Putin was divorced and secretly in a relationship with the gymnast), but the internet is still capable of disseminating information that the Kremlin would prefer to keep quiet. I am convinced this is something that Putin/Medvedev will be dealing with in the near future. They were already talking last year about making a made-in-Russia internet network that would isolate the Russian internet from the rest of the world.

I don't know what you are trying to prove here, Misha? The fact is that Putin/medvedev has a solid support within the country and that is with our without the Internet. The recent crisis is just increasing that support!

[diverboy70]

Olga, I am curious, can you describe these double standards with the American community you are referring too?

I guess she is reffering to the fact that the US has it's own "civil war" against drugs, crimilality and illegeal immigrants. A big percentage of the population is living below the poverty line. But at the same time the US has the need to spend billions of dollars to go out to the world and show what a great country it is and that it is the only acceptable way to run any country! But this is just my thoughts. Maybe Olga has other thoughts?

[Jack]

The fact is that Putin/medvedev has a solid support within the country

Diverboy, not so hard to achieve when you can kill those with dissenting views. Just ask the local and foreign journalist as to how much they can write about Putin and his antic's.

[BC]

Olga, I am curious, can you describe these double standards with the American community you are referring too?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_invasion_of_Panama

President Bush's allegations that forces under Noriega's command had shot and killed an unarmed American serviceman, wounded another, arrested and brutally beat a third American serviceman and then brutally interrogated his wife, threatening her with sexual abuse, were cited in the United Nations Security Council as sufficient grounds for invasion to be an act of self-defense within Article 51 of the UN charter.[8]

The official United States justification for the invasion was articulated by President George H. W. Bush on the morning of December 20, a few hours after the start of the operation. Bush listed four reasons for the invasion:[5]

    * Safeguarding the lives of U.S. citizens in Panama. In his statement, Bush claimed that Noriega had declared that a state of war existed between the United States and Panama and that he also threatened the lives of the approximately 35,000 US citizens living there. There had been numerous clashes between U.S. and Panamanian forces; one US Marine had been killed a few days earlier and several incidents of harassment of US citizens had taken place.
    * Defending democracy and human rights in Panama. Earlier that year the government insisted that they won the presidential election that in theory was won by U.S.-backed candidates from opposition parties.[6]

[Jack]

I guess she is reffering to

Diverboy if it is all the same to you, I would rather not guess, thus why I asked what she was referring to. 

[diverboy70]

Jack

You are mixing apples and pears here! And I think you are exagerating a bit The fact is still that they have a support, they don't have to get that by fear as Lenin and Stalin. Then I can agree with you that they don't really handle the opposition in a democratic way!

But then again the US has got Guantanamo, without any legal support. I guess anything between 20-50 % of the people there is compeltely innocent. And I guess the CIA is no better than the GRU, maybe just a bit more professional.

[diverboy70]

Diverboy if it is all the same to you, I would rather not guess, thus why I asked what she was referring to. 

Ok, Jack!

I change that to my view of the American double standards of moral

[Jack]

The American people (and those from Finland as well I might add) and press can call Bush a terrible man, they can write and say what they want about him. NOT so in Russia. Again, what is the most hazardous job in Russia, being a foreign journalist writing unkind things about Putin's reign.

[diverboy70]

Yes Jack!

I never disagreed with you about that!