Some thoughts about scams

[Michelangelo]

JB-I have to agree with your views on scammers.  I'm talking about true scammers--like the girl on the other thread who dated guys and had each one buy her the same expensive pair of boots, only to return them after he left.

Women who are truly looking for a western man and are willing to move are another matter.  When they accept gifts from us fools but then decide we are not their best choice, that's their perogative.

WARNING TO JB-  Another girl is headed your way, and she is no  scammer but can tear you to pieces!  Her name is Rita, and you had best take her serious

[andrewfi]

Pareto is the guy behind the 80/20 rule that suggest that, for example, 80% of profit is derived from 20% of a business' clients. It applies in most areas where there is a distribution, including from what can be inferred from what we read and see, the MOB industry. So, in this case a Pareto girl is one of the top 20% who get almost all the contacts. A shelf girl, on the other hand, is one of many who gets almost none. We know, again from what we read, see and are told, that there is a long tail of women who are left on the shelf with nary a contact among them.

It is this insight which is very instructive about the nature of the business, as with some very simple calculations, one can start to arrive at an idea of just how busy the top earning girls (or profiles) are and why it is that the busiest can be thought of as being almost certainly NOT what most Americans are seeking. I did some calculations to illustrate this some time ago on RWG. It also illustrates why it is that the top earning profiles are almost certainly not being dealt with by the girls themsleves, there simply is not time to do so.

A Pareto girl is not necessarily a scammer, she may well be seeking a husband, possibly even an American one, but she can be sure as hell picky and of the agency is actually getting many visitors as opposed to guys paying towrite, she is probably too busy with visiting guys to have much in the way of a normal job.

A shelf girl though is different, she gets very few contacts and each one must be jealously guarded and carefully nurtured. The upside for guys, is that she will look after any visitors most carefully and, if genuine about leaving her home country, will be anxious in the extreme not to put a foot wrong, but there is a catch. If she is so motivated and she is so rarely contacted, then it is also very likely that she will do what is necessary to maximise the opportunity, including marrying the wrong guy, simply because he is the ONLY guy. She can not afford to be too choosy.

Let us take an example, HRB have told us that the 'average' man writes perhaps 20 emails per month, it was their justification for setting their free limit at 30 mails monthly. They have, in their database, about 16,500 women. I do not know how many guys they have, but looking at what they told us about thier costs and what we can see of their monthly charges, I am willing to bet that they have, at the moment about 2000 paying subscribers and that they are aiming for a lot more. I also think, looking at ther site, that they are aiming at letter writers and not visitors, but that is another matter. At current levels, they say they are not making money, so I reckon that any estimates of volume for a profitable business might be doubled?

Let us also assume that Mr Average is writing to, say, 3 profiles. That means 40,000 mails being sent to 16,500 women. Applying 80/20 we get 3300 women sharing 10,400 emails at the top and 13,200 women sharing 2,600 mails. If each woman receives on average 7 mails that means that only 3% of the bottom slice get any mails in any given month, about 400 women. Those women are gonna fight tooth and claw to get amil from the agency and to keep the contact going. We can start to understand where tales of women giving gifts to office managers come from eh?

But what of the top slice, the lucky 20%. Does pareto apply here as well? It probably does, but assumptions get a touch stretched and, of course this is a continuum, not an entirely seperate group... But go with the numbers for a moment, it might be fun!

So, 3,300 women get 10,400 mails, if pareto is still working hard, then just 660 women are getting 8,320 emails each month, 12 mails a month from two guys, and of course those guys are coming and going, and as yet the business has yet to make money. Imagine the number of introductory mails these girls are getting. How does an agency NOT do something to service those incoming clients eh?

Just remember that HRB is simply an aggregator, each of these girls may well be on the lists of several aggregators,all fed from her local agency, How is a girl going to manage to deal with the input from, for example, AFA, HRB, Anastasia and Confidential connections, let alone the Russian sites like Damochka, Yandex and Mail.ru run.

The numbers I ran before were based upon information provided by Elena's Models and US immigration statistics and provided an more extreme picture. But we can see that there are at least two groups of women to be aware of in agencies. It is not possible to simply state that the less popular women are going to be a safer bet. For a man with something real to offer, the converse may well be true as long as he can convince one of these delights toa ctually engage in a genuine correspondence and later relationship with him. The problem is, in reality, getting such a one to actually read the mail sent to her and provoking a reply.

 

[Michelangelo]

Good post, Andrew...and true.  I was told by a pareto girl that she only picks a few of the hundreds of men who write her to interact with personally.  She is interested in marriage, but only to the best man.  She lets the agency deal with all the scumbugs who write her.

Another girl tells me that she met a guy once in Kiev who thought he was writing him.  She knew nothing about it.  Another agency had stolen her pic and profile and was writing guys for her.

Now, ending on a positive note, I have met delightful girls at agencies who were interested in marriage and wrote their own letters.  And these girls were 9s and 10s, too.

[andrewfi]

Michael, that is the point. If you have something to offer then you can find your way through the maze. These pareto girls probably have more attention from men than their equivalents in the US. They need to filter. Also, of course, because this becomes a career, they are almost certain to act, with guys with whom interest is not too high, but whom they have to meet, in a manner that some would calling scamming. For mysoef, I would simply point the guys making the accusations back at the girls in the US and ask them to tell me if things would be any different if they got as far with the US girls.

[Leslie]

Andrew,

Your analysis raises some interesting questions.  Why don't you draw the obvious conclusions?

Simple fact is that the ladies don't write many of the e-mails the guys receive

A lot of the time the real woman is totally unaware of the correspondence.  Yuri's young students write the letters.  This is way more efficient and it fits the business model.  Remember only 10% of the guys who write will ever visit.  Titilate 90% of the market at 5 bucks a pop. Make excuses to the small minority who are serious.

My wife knows a lot of UW who are searching.  The model you describe is quite correct.  The young very pretty girls can't cope with all the e-mail suiters and are very choosey.  Most of the time the guys don't  know this.  The agency replies anyway - Hey money is money.

This is why it is so important to take the agency out of the relationship.

Mid Thirties with a child is usually Ms Desperate.  If she wants to emigrate then she will claim any likely candidate and marry the first man who asks because it is likely to be the only chance she will get. 

Mr Niave proposes to Ms Desperate. Here comes the crash and burn story !

[Michelangelo]

Remember only 10% of the guys who write will ever visit.  Titilate 90% of the market at 5 bucks a pop. Make excuses to the small minority who are serious.

 The young very pretty girls can't cope with all the e-mail suiters and are very choosey.  

This is why it is so important to take the agency out of the relationship.

Or, if you really want one of these young pretty things, you have to  visit and meet her!  Then,  you can make yourself stand out to her. Meet her family. See where she lives.  And more importantly, find out if you have chemistry with her!

And, if she does not exist with that agency at all, they will not be able to produuce her

In my experience with agencies,  the girl was always there.  But I did not always like her...

So you gotta visit...

[andrewfi]

Leslie, it is my assumption that a large proportion of women, particularly those who receive significant volumes of mail do not write the replies. Most guys will never know, as you point out, and of course, most guys never intend to meet the girls, it is just a fantasy. I reckon that this the proprietors of sites such as HRB are well aware of this and design the site for this client base.

I wrote a long piece about this based upon numbers from Elena's models and incorporating what I have seen for myself and had recounted to me. Frankly, it is not possible for it to be otherwise, simply not practical.

If you are seeking one of the top few percent of girls, then simply turning up is not enough. If one is going to do it right then start off by sending the girl a digital camera, or good phone, something to announce yourslef as a serious player. Then having gotten her attention, telephone her through the agency, and make serious concrete plans to visit within a matter of a couple of weeks or so. Ensure the agency gets their cut, do not try to cut them out, they can mess with your, your plans and your mind.

Visit, make sure that you are able to do what you say, when you say you will do it and make sure that you can offer her the stuff she needs in order to accept you as serious suitor. Also make sure that you can do so when you get her home.

How many guys can do that?

Almost none.

Almost nobody on these boards, or writing to the most prized of these women has the disposable income to be present and to compete with local and European competition. Leslie is right when he talks about how local guys with the kind of folding that works for these girls treat them, but frankly, these girls will expect no different from you. So being a 'gentleman' will not work.

Of course, from the pictures we see, almost nobody outside of Russia or Ukraine actually ends up with the creme de la creme of these women, most of us settle for someone much more ordinary, but eventhese girls are palying the same games, the same rules and same desires.

 

[Michelangelo]

Visit, make sure that you are able to do what you say, when you say you will do it and make sure that you can offer her the stuff she needs in order to accept you as serious suitor. Also make sure that you can do so when you get her home.

How many guys can do that?

Almost none.

... from the pictures we see, almost nobody outside of Russia or Ukraine actually ends up with the creme de la creme of these women, most of us settle for someone much more ordinary, but eventhese girls are palying the same games, the same rules and same desires.

Sounds bleak!

But maybe not...

First, there is nothing wrong with someone much more ordinary.  A girl's personality and how the two of you get along together is much more important than if she is a "7" or a "10."

BUT--you can have a "9" or "10" whom you have great rapport with!  Yes, do the prep work before your arrival that Andrew mentions.  But also have communications with lots of other girls, cuz you might not even like the personality that goes with the nice picture you have been writing.

The secret if you want the creme de la creme?   It's supply and demand.  And the supply is plentiful!  The FSU is covered with young beautiful girls in the prime age bracket of 22-35.

On my visit in April, I dropped the beautiful girl I had been writing for 3 months after three dates.  But there were 10 more just as beautiful girls waiting for me.  I had a great time and approached it as an opportunity to have fun with some great girls.

Most wanted a deeper relationship and wanted marriage.  I was waiting on someone else in another city, so I did not take the "bait."   Nibbled, but did not swallow

But in the FSU, if you are a normal, well-adjusted guy in reasonable shape, you can get the creme de la creme.

[Michelangelo]

*  My comments above should be tempered with the advice Jack gives elsewhere--you can only "trade up" so much.  A guy who is a "7" or "8" can get the girl who is a "10."  But not the guy who is a "5" or "6."

* My comments are also tempered with the assumption that you date girls at home and relate well with them.

[jb]

Andrew,

All very interesting....

Does the expression; "Dancing in a minefield", draw any mental pictures for you?

[jb]

Michael,

Yes, we are aware of the naughty girl "Rita" bearing down on us.  

If it looks like a direct hit, both of the cars and the truck have full fuel tanks, we simply load up the dogs, a couple of suitcases, and drive to my sister's house in San Antonio.

A glancing blow will probably see us stay at home, but we have a complete storm kit layed in.  Twenty gallons of drinking water, several cases of dried and canned food, plenty of flashlights w/batteries, portable battery operated radio, medical 1st aid kit, two 5 gal propane tanks for the camper stove, if we lose power, and a 2.5 KW generator that can power the fridge, TV, some lights, and other essentials, and enough gas, if used sparingly, to last for several days.

After what we saw in New Orleans we got serious about getting our sh!t together down here.

Oh,,, and the house and contents are insured for full replacement value, not appraised value.

Edit: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_strike.html

It's gonna be a near thing.

[andrewfi]

Andrew,

All very interesting....

Does the expression; "Dancing in a minefield", draw any mental pictures for you?

These are not games I would play. But there are a few who can and do. They have the resources, in all forms, and do this stuff, but then, they can and do do this stuff in their own country. But, having a Russian mistress, girlfriend, wife is somewhat fashionable at the moment among certain groups and many of those can afford what they want, wherever it might be. I think that it is likely that most guys here have means and other resources that are much more mundane.

BTW, from what I have seen and been told, it is not Americans who can do this stuff, but Europeans. They seem to better understand the dynamic and 'values' better than Americans who seem, by and large, to be concerned with getting most for least rather than best for what it costs. 'Best' of course having different meanings to different people, but if we probably mean, here, the most beautiful women,

 

[Bruno]

BTW, from what I have seen and been told, it is not Americans who can do this stuff, but Europeans. They seem to better understand the dynamic and 'values' better than Americans who seem, by and large, to be concerned with getting most for least rather than best for what it costs.  

I don't think that American are more bad that European... with time, this is slowly changing... Mainly, American have begin hunting RW since the ex-USSR exist... but almost no American have make visit from the time of USSR... so, visit from American to FSU is a enough new trend ( 10-15 year ago )... due to his geographical location and relative good relation with FSU, European have always visit FSU... from the time of Tsar to now... geographical, russia, at the origine is a european country !!!

Second, European country are so little, that it is not unusual to marry foreigner... the population of my country is like these of a big American city... several Belgium citizen are married with French, Holland, German,... people... It is a little like when a man from Dallas marry a woman from Washinton...

And about scammer, we have not so much problem mainly because our reputation... you have certainly listen russian woman speaking of these "greedy european"... we don't give our hard earned money so easily that American since we have not so much money that American...

I think that people who use forum like RWD are enough ready for these process... the main problem is from medium level American citizen who have never go outside country, who relay only on what say agency... almost all these agency promise dream woman and hide the potential problem... Only after some problem, we find these guys here, on forum...

 

[Rvrwind]

Mid Thirties with a child is usually Ms Desperate.  If she wants to emigrate then she will claim any likely candidate and marry the first man who asks because it is likely to be the only chance she will get.

Sorry Leslie, but I wil have to disagree to some extent with this comment.

I have two ladies in mind that fit into this age catagory & both have children, boys 7 & 14 respectivly. Both these ladies are good friends of ours & are far from desperate. There kids are well mannered & well behaved.

The one has dated 3 Americans that I am aware of, average guys looks wise & one with alot of money. She chose none f them because in her words I didn't feel a connection.

The other lady has dated 2 Americans & she chose niether for exactly the same reasons. Niether one of these women know each other so colabration on the answer was not possible.

Both of them will be on my site when I launch it. Both are very nice ladies & quite attractive. Both are in there early 30's but niether of them is desperate enough to take the first man that shows up.

I understand that there are many who probably might but I know many that would not. That is like saying that all women under 25 are not serious enough & probaby scammers or GCG's. Which is a popular belief. Originaly because of this belief I was not even going to except women in my program under the age of 25. I since however after meeting a few that wanted to sign up & talking with them as I am prone to do. I have found a couple that I feel are sincere in their desire & have a wish to enter the program for legitimate reasons. I have also noticed a few younger men on the boards that are in pursuit of these younger ladies & who can blame them, if I was 32 I would certainly go after a 22-23 year old without hesitation.

So with all that in mind I decided to accept younger ladies to the program. I do however interveiw them extensivly & I feel I am a pretty good judge of character for the most part. There have been 2-3 I have tuned away that I did not feel were ready for the commitment they would be required to eventually undertake. I know other agencies will take any woman that signs up. They will lie to them telling them they are getting a free photo shoot or competing in a modelling contest (re:RWG Post) I however will not stoop to their level.

I will however protect & help my clients as best I can both male & female.

RVR - Canadian Cowboy

[Michelangelo]

Michael,

Yes, we are aware of the naughty girl "Rita" bearing down on us.  

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_strike.html

It's gonna be a near thing.

Just became a 4 early Wednesday morning! I know Rita is not a scam and is a real scorned lady, so good luck to you JB.  I hope it turns north and misses you and hits that empty city of New Orleans and turns it into the permanent lake it should be...and leaves the Texas Gulf Coast alone...

[jb]

Well, I wouldn't personally wish any more bad luck off on New Orleans, they've certainly had their fair share of misery.

The storm tracking guru's now seem to perdict a strike between Galveston and Port Lavaca, and actually this would be a best case, as it is not a densely populated area.  A lot of rice fields would get wet and farmers would have to start over but there are no major urban cities in the area.  Somewhere between Victoria (pop 75,000) and El Campo (pop 30,000) would probably be the hardest hit.  

It would be a disaster, but not a catastrophe on the same order as New Orleans.

[jb]

Back on topic.

I'm not so sure the "average" men hanging here "are much more mundane".  We see on another thread a young guy named Mark who is very marginal, he is having trouble mustering the minimum 16K annual salary requirement, but I think he's the exception, not the rule.  You have to remember, $16K is on the order of what a maid at "Motel 6" would make.  I don't know of anyone who is working at a regular, even semi-professional, job, and making only $8.00 per hour.  I would consider that to be starvation wages and that person has no business seeking a mate from the FSU.  I'd guess even the illegals mowing lawns around town are grossing 10-12 per hour and they don't pay taxes on what they make.

The economy in the USA is not that bad, if a person has some salable skill and wants to work, they are already employed and have the potential to improve themself.  A typical mechanic will earn in excess of $50K if he stays half ways busy, truck drivers can earn $60+K, and the higher the skill level, the more a man can earn.  Even in retirement, our joint income here is pushing 100K for the household, so you see, we are not all living on such low incomes here.

Of course, the bottom line is not how much you earn, but the keyword is "disposable' income.  How much is left over to p!ss away after you pay for your lifestyle.  I know several men who earned more than me who have less cash in the bank at the end of the month.  I think it's more a matter of management than bottom lines on a form 1040.

[andrewfi]

jb ~ I think you would have to see it to understand what I mean. But there are large numbers of people in the region with lots of money, not just in relation to the country they are in, but in absolute terms and, becasue of the nature of its acquisition, many of these wealthy people are young. So, there are many wealthy Russian guys who are entirely happy to lavish expensive gifts upon the women they seek.

European guys, also, seem willling to do what is needed. Attracting attention as I noted upthread. I do not frequent discussion boards used by Italians or French guys, but from what we see of American guys on these boards, parsimony of a fairly extreme degree is the order of the day. From experience, I have been with women collecting unknown parcels from the post office. The senders have never been American.

Now, you could argue that the Americans are doing the right thing - and, for the long term, I might agree. But for sure, if an American wonders who his beauty blew him off for the week when he hoped to monopolise her, the competition is more likely to be another Russian, or an Italian, than an American... if you get my drift.

[jb]

I think we have to define, "Average", and "Age Group", and "Typical", before we go much farther.

I'm merely guessing, but I'd say you are talking about the top .01% of the young beauties who occupy the upper most popularity positions of the MOB world.  These girls would  probably not be in consideration for a wife position with an average 40+ y.o. average income, average looks, average everything American male anyway, so nothing is, or would be, lost in my view anyway.

I had originally thought to shed light on a typical scam scenario without getting very much into the esoteric.  To give the newbie some meat and pototoes to chew on when he gets that first bite on his advert over on the free dating sites.

You have taken this very much farther afield than I ever imagined.  But then, I'm a pretty simple and straight forward sort of man and I don't go looking for trouble.  IMHO, the guy who is looking for trouble is the man with unrealistic, fantasy, wish fulfillment, sugar plum fairies, and other such nonsense dancing in his head, this guy is begging to be taken to the cleaners.

How can we help the unhelpable?

[catzenmouse]

You have taken this very much farther afield than I ever imagined. But then, I'm a pretty simple and straight forward sort of man and I don't go looking for trouble. IMHO, the guy who is looking for trouble is the man with unrealistic, fantasy, wish fulfillment, sugar plum fairies, and other such nonsense dancing in his head, this guy is begging to be taken to the cleaners.

How can we help the unhelpable?

Can we help the unhelpable? No, I don't think so. We can help those who are naive in this process to alert them to the pitfalls and to steer them around some of the disasters waiting to happen to them but in the end we all take our own path and generally get what we deserve from that choice.

Part of the problems with the newbie is that they 1) Don't research about the process and spend time on sites like this one where they can learn how to avoid disaster and 2) believe somehow that it will never happen to them.

 

Ken

[jb]

Well said, Ken.

[catzenmouse]

Thanks JB. Believe me, when I first started this I had no clue as to what I was doing or how to do it. I did start to research and got on some different groups and by some trial and error and some small pain did learn to keep myself out of trouble.

I am also not a typical case here. Elena and I met just before I was to leave Russia so we knew we had chemistry but did not know each other very well. We spent a lot of time on the phone and with letters (not much e-mail) and over the course of several months decided that we wanted to make a go of this crazy thing. We K1'd and have been married for just under a year now.

I would not recommend this to others as we have had some issues due to our lack of physical time together but with love and patience for each other we have grown stronger and our bond is wonderful.

Ken

[Leslie]

Richard,


My assertion -

« Mid Thirties with a child is usually [/b]Ms Desperate.  If [/b]she wants to emigrate then she will claim any likely candidate and marry the first man who asks because it is likely to be the only chance she will get.[/quote]"[/size]

Includes the words usually and if - I was not making an inductive statement like 'All swans are white'  I have don't doubt that you have chosey mid thirties women with children on your catalog. I have dated several women like this.  I have also dated Ms Desperate on several occasions!

Simple fact is that older, uglier women with more dependents will get fewer offers.  One of my wifes former colleagues is 42 with 2 children.  She has been registered with MOB agencies for 4+ years. She has only EVER got e-mail from guys who are 60+.  She has only dated one WM (an american) he was 72. He proposed and she accepted.  She emigated to the US on a K1 but never married.  The guy got cold feet - permenantly cold feet.  He died…. 

Andrew, 

Modellizing is a very expensive hobby.  You have to be RICH to do it.  It is going to take LOTS of dosh to get into a relationship with a model type.  Expensive gifts, free holiday to Turkey etc.   Dating a much younger FSU girl with model looks is one thing.  Marriage is another.  I reckon you have to be a millionaire like Tigerpaws to keep such a woman.  Stunningly good looking equals lots of options, especially in the USA. Stepping stones get trodden on.... 

JB, 

"How can we help the unhelpable" 

We can't and we should not even try.  The tradition of tapping people with the "clue bat" only works if the guy is in touch with reality and has some sense.  Making fun of the "Gomer" is not a good idea.  Remember some of BB's Comedy Store type send ups on the other board?  LP does the same on Planet Love.  Very funny to read but the "Gomers" get offended and of course still don't listen. 

I remember advising a professional psychologist that his "girl friend" was scamming him before he made his first trip.  When he told me what happened on that trip I was positively certain she was scamming him.  He got real offended and said he was a professional and new better than me.  Never spoke with him again.  It took him another trip before he saw the truth of the situation.  Listening would have saved him maybe 20K… 

Ken, 

Of course you are right.  It will never happen to them !

 

 

 

[jb]

JB,

"How can we help the unhelpable"

We can't and we should not even try.

Well, I guess that effectively ends my usefulness to the RWD.

[catzenmouse]

JB,

"How can we help the unhelpable"

We can't and we should not even try.

Well, I guess that effectively ends my usefulness to the RWD.[/quote]
With your upcoming political career you probably won't have time for us anyway...