Can anyone in Moscow verify this?

[Mishenka]

MOSCOW - Talking to Russians on the street, you'd be forgiven for thinking there was no economic crisis.
TV channels gloss over the subject and state news agencies are under orders to avoid frightening language. But beyond the spin, Russia's stock markets are plunging, some grocery shelves are empty and one newspaper has even suggested its readers stash some cash — under the mattress.

The Kremlin is grappling with its worst financial crisis in a decade — feeding a liquidity crunch as banks clamp down on lending. And economists are now fretting about how deep the slowdown will be.

In dozens of supermarkets in Moscow this month, shoppers have encountered shelves empty of even the most basic items. At one chain on Wednesday, meat, fish, vegetables, fruit and cigarettes were nowhere to be seen. The dessert section was empty except for a pricey brand of imported Scottish shortbread — priced at $48 — while sugar and salt were in plentiful supply.

Still, Nikita Bondarev, an academic researcher in his early 30s shopping at the Samokhval chain, said he had no particular concerns about the crisis.

"I'm not playing the (stock) market, and I'm getting my salary as usual," he said. But the sight of empty shelves, "brings up unpleasant memories of Soviet times."

This is not the early 1990s, when images of bread lines and food shortages were beamed across the world. But small businesses and even some mid-size chains like Samokhval are finding it impossible to get credit or that it is available only at exorbitant rates.

In the case of Samokhval, which has 60 stores in the Moscow area, and Mosmart, which has 54 stores and four superstores, suppliers are refusing to deliver goods because of outstanding debts, distributors said.

The problems appear to be limited to a few chains so far in a city that is still enjoying a consumer boom — fed by robust economic growth averaging more than 7 percent over the past eight years and windfall oil profits.

Still, memories of the financial collapse of 1998 are fresh in the minds of many. Savings were wiped out amid a wave of bank foreclosures fed by a crisis of confidence. And that's something the Kremlin is eager to avoid repeating.

Last week, the RTS stock exchange suffered its worst trading day on record, plunging 19 percent. The markets were hit after oil prices — the backbone of Russia's economy — slid heavily amid mounting concerns over the global economic meltdown.

But in Russia, it didn't even make the evening news on the three state-controlled channels.

Instead, they aired a meeting between President Dmitry Medvedev and one of the country's richest billionaires, Mikhail Fridman, in which the two discussed the investment opportunities created by the global crisis.

Vladimir Varfolomeyev, first deputy editor at Ekho Moskvy radio, wrote in his blog that the Kremlin recently sent an order to all broadcasters banning the words "collapse" and "crisis." The word "fall," the memo said, should be substituted with "decline." His blog promptly went down.

Meanwhile, a memo circulated at the state-run ITAR-Tass news agency reportedly advised reporters not to publish "provocative reports that can cause panic."

"We're requesting you to STOP covering queues at banks and a shortage of banking funds," said the memo, circulated by several respected bloggers.

Many newspapers, which operate under more liberal constraints, have carried reports of depositors switching their savings from less-secure private to state-owned banks, while noting some smaller lenders have frozen early withdrawals of accounts.

Still, the Kremlin's message seems to be getting across.

In a poll carried out in late September by the Public Opinion Foundation, one-quarter of those questioned said they had heard nothing about the global financial crisis, while 57 percent said they were satisfied with the country's economy — up from 53 percent in July.

The survey of 1,500 people in 102 cities across Russia had a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points, according to the foundation Web site.

Ignoring domestic factors, such as Russia's five-day war with Georgia in August and growing fears of government interference in business, Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin have repeatedly singled out the U.S. as the chief culprit for the global financial crisis and Russia's economic troubles.

"Trust in the United States as the leader of the free world and the free economy, and confidence in Wall Street as the center of that trust, has been damaged, I believe, forever," Putin said recently.

The pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestia, meanwhile, has suggested readers set aside enough cash to cover three months of living expenses — and stash it under the mattress. The advice recalls more difficult times for Russians, when confidence in the banking system was shattered.

For a government that has built its popularity on an eight-year economic boom, the prospects of a severe downturn and a long-term crisis in its financial sector are alarming indeed.

"All we have at the moment are anecdotes, so we simply don't know" how serious the problems are in Russia, said Rory MacFarquhar, a managing director at Goldman Sachs. "The scary anecdotes have just started to come out with the acute phase of this financial crisis basically starting in October. For a statistical reading ... we're going to have wait a whole month. So we're left guessing."

Still, there are signs everywhere.

Construction has been hard hit, with many projects put on hold or canceled. At Moscow's flagship business center Moscow City — a scene of feverish building activity a few months ago — there were only a few workers at the site this week.

The head of Mirax construction group Sergei Polonsky recently urged journalists in an open letter not to fan the flames of crisis.

"We are already lying on our backs, but we still have some strength left to climb back," he wrote. "We beg you to give us reasoned coverage of this sector."

Why has Russia given Iceland a loan of 6 Billion USD if such things are true? I see Putin has bailed out Russian banks with over USD $ 200 Billion in cash as well in the past month. Where will it stop?

Mishenka

[Sculpto]

I will report what i see in a week...

How is your trip going?

[UTRO]

Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin have repeatedly singled out the U.S. as the chief culprit for the global financial crisis

Mishenka, for once Putin and Medvedev are stating a fact. The whole world knows this. What are you being told?
The main thing fueling Russia's economic might has been commodities, such as minerals and oil. Today a barrel of oil fell to $69.85 US... that is 52% lower than the high it hit in July. So in effect, Russia's economic staple has fell by over a half in the last 90 days. Of course they are worried and in trouble. Why have oil prices fell? Mainly due to a lack of Manufacturing Demand in the US. The speculators have made their money and are slithering away looking for their next prey.

[Chicagoguy]

I tell my friends in Russia in Russia to read the English newspaper The Moscow Times".  And if they aren't able to get this to try the online edition. Also to watch BBC or CNN.

As far as I can tell these people have been left alone to say as they please.

[viking]

Mainly due to a lack of Manufacturing Demand in the US.

Whoa!!!! Oil prices are where they SHOULD be now. This is the normal price. You are right that due to speculation, and not just the US, prices were driven up for greed. Look, there is a small hole in a pipe in Nigeria, lets push up oil another $10.  Stuff like that pushed up the price of oil. Just because usage, mainly for gas for cars, is down a small percentage does not equate to a drop of half what it was only a few months ago. Personally I wish there was a monster pipeline from the huge oil shale deposits you folks have in Alberta (?) straight to the US. That would most likely drive oil down even further.

[UTRO]

Whoa!!!! Oil prices are where they SHOULD be now. This is the normal price. You are right that due to speculation, and not just the US, prices were driven up for greed. Look, there is a small hole in a pipe in Nigeria, lets push up oil another $10.  Stuff like that pushed up the price of oil. Just because usage, mainly for gas for cars, is down a small percentage does not equate to a drop of half what it was only a few months ago. Personally I wish there was a monster pipeline from the huge oil shale deposits you folks have in Alberta (?) straight to the US. That would most likely drive oil down even further.

Absolutely Viking!! I agree Apparently China had a lot to do with this?!? They were paying 'anything' to secure supply during for their Olympic 'world show'. The speculators knew this and took advantage. Funny how the price of crude has fallen over 50% since the Olympics? Speculation.... how about the rise of fuel prices, at the pump, the day before Ike even arrrived in Texas!!
Oh man, how I love filling up the tank of my Expedition once again!!

[Sculpto]

LOL OK here comes Sculpto from the conspiracy fringe to tell it like it is.

This crisis is manufactured. 

First you dumb down the nation by letting the schools become a wasteland so you end up with graduates with no ability to think or any skills worth using.  This has two results.  One is a cheaper low end labor force without the intelligence to protest.  Second it gives the more ambitious and mercenary types an outlet by joining the all volunteer military so you can impose your will in over 100 countries around the world.

Then you create a runup in the percieved value of everything by de-regulating any sense of reality in rational lending practices which leads to a false sense of security that there is unlimited potential resources and wealth for everyone with the free market savvy to take advantage of the situation.

Then you export the good pyaing middle class medium skill level jobs thereby further eroding the ability of "Joe the Plumber" to protest because now he is more worried about putting food on the table than the professional career criminals in Washington and in the corporate conference rooms all around the nation.

Then you allow the bottom to drop out thereby bankrupting your enemy nations and reducing them as both military and economic threats.  At the same time you redistibute the lions share of real wealth right back into your own hands.

Far out theory sure.. but.. call me paranoid but the whole thing feels like a scam.  Starve em into submission kinda thing.  I think George H called it a "New World Order".  So, this is your future now choke on it.

No would be a good time to re-read "The Fall of the Roman Empire".  run for cover, the SKY IS FALLING! 

Brought to you by the good people of Paranoid Conspiracy Theories "R" Us.

[Mishenka]

I will report what i see in a week...

How is your trip going?

Hi Sculpto, thanks for asking.  I hope your trip goes well!
I had to post phone my trip due to finances, so many cancelations for my construction work, International guitar sales are at a  snail pace. The NZ dollar is down to .60 so it hurts my guitar business. Galina will have to wait a little longer. For some reason Uzbek Embassy issued me a 3 Entry Visa good for 88 days from September 1st until the end of November.  I can extend it for 30 days. I have no idea why they gave me such a great visa, very generous of them, especially since I didn't pay for that. Right now Our perfume business in Tashkent is making more money for Galina than I am. ( this is how bad things are)   It is begining to look a lot like a Christmas trip now. I will need that lamb skin coat I was offering you!  Its ready to go in my closet!  
Have a blast!
Mishenka

[wxman]

This drop in oil in the end is going to be the demise of the independent oil companies, a.k.a.  Exxon, Shell, etc. Notice how the short traders almost destroyed the financial industry through short trading and rumors? Now that governments around the world have decided to be the main backers of banks, it takes the shorts out of play. Well these short traders need to feed their hunger. What better way than going after the oil industry when they are taking big hits. Nothing like spreading rumors that the world will go into a long term recession, forcing oil even lower and causing the stock value to plummet. This makes big time money for the short traders. Anyone notice that Exxon is down over 40%? Eventually the stock will get so cheap that EXXON will need and infusion of money. Who do you think is just sitting there with the money? Russian giant Gazprom is just waiting. They will eliminate all private competition. People will forget about alternate fuels as gas will drop to $2 a gallon. 5 years from now, we will be in worse shape than we are now and will be even more dependent on oil. But instead of Exxon drilling off the coast of the US, it will be a joint venture with Gazprom and what's left of Exxon, Shell, etc. Gazprom is already got their foot in the door in Alaska. They are supposedly giving "advice" on how to build a better natural gas pipeline. Doesn't it seem a little too much like coincidence that the collapse of the western financial system is being followed by the collapse western oil companies?  It will be interesting if the government ever forces disclosure of who these short traders are. We may not like what we hear.   

[UTRO]

Hi Sculpto, thanks for asking.  I hope your trip goes well!
I had to post phone my trip due to finances, so many cancelations for my construction work, International guitar sales are at a  snail pace. The NZ dollar is down to .60 so it hurts my guitar business. Galina will have to wait a little longer. For some reason Uzbek Embassy issued me a 3 Entry Visa good for 88 days from September 1st until the end of November.  I can extend it for 30 days. I have no idea why they gave me such a great visa, very generous of them, especially since I didn't pay for that. Right now Our perfume business in Tashkent is making more money for Galina than I am. ( this is how bad things are)   It is begining to look a lot like a Christmas trip now. I will need that lamb skin coat I was offering you!  Its ready to go in my closet!  
Have a blast!
Mishenka

Mishenka..... you're kidding me guy!!!! You're willing to postone your trip due to monetary issues?!? What does your Galina think about this??? Comm'on guy..... have things come to this???? Is it all about $$$??

[Mishenka]

Mishenka..... you're kidding me guy!!!! You're willing to postone your trip due to monetary issues?!? What does your Galina think about this??? Comm'on guy..... have things come to this???? Is it all about $$$??

She misses me of course! Like many others, I have had to become very conservative with finances in the last month. I am not in debt and don't want to use credit cards or borrow. It took too long to pay them all off! 

Galina had to have bone graft surgery in her upper left jaw bone last month because of a root canal gone bad, got infected and doctors there are not the trained professionals we have here in San Diego, there is a world of difference.  We went to see 2 or 3 who had no idea what they were doing, could not read an Xray to save their life.  So long story short, she found the right oral surgeon to help her after I had already left Tashkent.  The cost of his services were reasonable, he pulled the tooth, now she waits for it to heal and do an implant. The bone for the graft cost equal to a typical months pay over there.  We talked and decided she will have this procedure with this oral surgeon.  I wanted to be there for her but couldn't fly at the time without my visa and passport in hand as it was still being processed at her Embassy. Her birthday was on the 20th,  she was in no shape to have visitors, so that was another reason to postphone. I shipped her gifts to her that arrived this week.  We also recently finished remodeling her flat down town. There were so many things that needed repair while I was there, I decided to tear some of it out and start over, new kitchen appliances etc. So we had to make some decisions. If I spend the money to remodel it will put off my trip till later.  Her windows were falling apart and didnt close. We decided with winter coming, she had to have new dual glazed windows that will close tight and keep out the ice and snow. I won't go into details but she has two new rooms in the flat now.  I am confident in our love and relationship enough to wait a while, invest some time and know we will always get back more than we invest.  She bought her flat 18 years ago for $7000 US cash, now it is worth 80,000 USD. So its all good.  I believe now is her best time to sell and move here in the next 8 months or so. We shall see what the future brings?  Maybe I will live over there for a while? Who knows.

Wow, just thought of a great idea!!!  Since this Lamb skin coat is worth about $3,500 USD in Moscow, I could sell it to pay for my trip~ It looks a bit mobster on me anyway.  Galina is very patient and understanding of my situation and the world financial crisis.  We had a great time together During March through April, and we're very committed. Still, she is sad I am not with her now. Her brother moves to USA with his family in March, 09 so I really want to get the ball rolling so she can arrive about the same time he does.  While it's great Im not in debt, it doesn't help the current lack of cash flow.  I'm not into borrowing money to take a trip. I have a deal I am hoping to close soon that will catch me up and pay for the trip. We believe and hope for the best, da?
Mishenka

[UTRO]

Oh I hear you Mishenka It sounds like you do indeed have an understanding woman! I wasn't serious.... just stupid. Funny about the coat! I bought a nice black leather one myself for my trip in February. Apparently it was too Mafioso, so I refunded it when I got back home.
I hope your Galina is feeling better

[OlgaH]

I bought a nice black leather one myself for my trip in February. Apparently it was too Mafioso, so I refunded it when I got back home.

When I met Robert in Sheremetyevo, he was in long black leather coat, wine red sweater, scarf with pattern and black kepi...
Last time when we went to buy the new suits for him I insist to get one black suit with white stripes. But I wanted the stripes were more wider  , in any case we  came to an agreement about white stripes  He just looks... alluringly Mafioso in that suit and hat... but I like it and he too 

[UTRO]

Mafioso...............You Russian Girls!! So happy I have one

[SANDRO43]

When I met Robert in Sheremetyevo, he was in long black leather coat, wine red sweater, scarf with pattern and black kepi...

Was he impersonating a French Army officer ?

[OlgaH]

Was he impersonating a French Army officer ?

That would be interesting  his was black like this one

[SANDRO43]

his was black like this one

That'd be a Gatsby hat, according to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hat
also newsboy cap, bakerboy cap, eight-panel cap, eight-quarters hat, according to: http://accessories.about.com/od/hatglossary/Hat_Glossary_Hat_Styles.htm

You might want him to try some other styles .

[OlgaH]

That'd be a Gatsby hat, according to: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hat
also newsboy cap, bakerboy cap, eight-panel cap, eight-quarters hat, according to: http://accessories.about.com/od/hatglossary/Hat_Glossary_Hat_Styles.htm

You might want him to try some other styles .

Thanks Sandro for the links. I found the right name - Flat-cap 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Flat-cap.jpg

[Sculpto]

Thought i should throw in the hat discussion the well known chapeau of local gangsters   

[Mishenka]

Mishenka, for once Putin and Medvedev are stating a fact. The whole world knows this. What are you being told?
The main thing fueling Russia's economic might has been commodities, such as minerals and oil. Today a barrel of oil fell to $69.85 US... that is 52% lower than the high it hit in July. So in effect, Russia's economic staple has fell by over a half in the last 90 days. Of course they are worried and in trouble. Why have oil prices fell? Mainly due to a lack of Manufacturing Demand in the US. The speculators have made their money and are slithering away looking for their next prey.

   Yes so true. however, Russia's troubles began the day they invaded Georgia, a good month earlier than the US financial crisis was in full bloom. The 300 or so US companies doing Biz in Moscow, and other investors pulled out 18 Billion from Russian Banks in that first 4 days of the invasion, plus, they pulled out of the Russian stock market and caused its own freefall. What is there to hear about it?  What is happening in Russia is not only the cut in Oil prices, but a result of Georgian conflict.  Russia is simply not a safe place to invest during the last 3 months.  Investors read the writing on the wall long before Putin, and they pulled out. Not much he can do to get them back at this point.  It is what it is. As always it is the public who pays the price for its leaders mistakes.
Mishenka

[OlgaH]

   Yes so true. however, Russia's troubles began the day they invaded Georgia, a good month earlier than the US financial crisis was in full bloom.
Mishenka

Mishenka,

Russia's troubles began the day when Georgia invaded South Ossetia 

Georgia's  military operations in South Ossetia caused some 100 billion rubles ($4.1 billion) in damage. Around 70% of buildings in South Ossetia's capital, Tskhinvali, were destroyed. A popular Russian daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta said that the first five days of the conflict in Georgia's breakaway republic cost Russia around 12.5 billion rubles ($508.7 million). 50 million Rubles were allocated by Russia to accommodate South Ossetian refugees. The Russian government presidium has approved the allocation of 10.5 billion rubles (around $440 million) for the restoration of South Ossetia and assistance for the victims of the conflict.

[Mishenka]

Yes Olga, the Georgian conflict cost Russia a small fortune, not to mention the USA has also given a Billion in aid.  was it worth it? Only they can say. Which makes me wonder, why is Russia, with less than 3 months left in cash reserves to run the country before financial collapse, making cash loans of 6 Billion USD to Iceland? 200+ Billion to it's own failing banks, trading their stash of USD for rubles to boost up the false value of the falling Ruble, not to mention the millions they have pledged to many other areas. With oil and gas revenues cut in half, this will be a serious challenge. What will happen in 90 days?

Was this the Bush plan all along? to weaken potential "enemies" so they could not afford to go to war and would no longer be a threat to US national security? I can't give Bush that much credit, but someone could have come up with such a plan to bankrupt the world financial system. As if we didn't have enough wars, hurricanes, fires, tsunami's, earth quakes and natural disasters around the world already that cost us all Trillions. Interesting how all world currency lost 20% in value as the US dollar increased 20% in value, Gold is up! So who ended up on top? The BUSH agenda?

At the end of the day he finally wins. Even North Korea is back in track dismantling their nuke plants.  Iraq has good news to report. Al Queda has mostly moved back into Iran and Afghanistan to hang out with the Taliban, without their leaders who were killed in Iraq over the last month, makes the Bush National security plan look pretty good on his way out the door.  interesno, da?

Mishenka

[msmoby_ru]

Mishenka,

Russia's troubles began the day when Georgia invaded South Ossetia 

OH, No.. NOT again....

[/quote]

I wonder when we will hear the truth about how the Russian "peace-keping" forces were provoking in what is still legally part of Georgia for months before....

Olga, The Kremlin got EXACTLY what it wanted....  Mr Saakashvilli is "silly"  for playing into their hands..!!!

[msmoby_ru]

At the end of the day he finally wins.

If "winning" is leaving US folk crippled with debt  - you're "correct" ! ..

[OlgaH]

Which makes me wonder, why is Russia, with less than 3 months left in cash reserves to run the country before financial collapse, making cash loans of 6 Billion USD to Iceland? 

Mishenka

Mishenka,

the loans is still under consideration (the loan would be three to four years, carrying interest ranging from 30 to 50 basis points over LIBOR.)  a final decision will be taken after the next talks about exact terms for the loan as the Russian Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin has said (19th October, 2008)