SOME POSTS I READ ABOUT THE SITUATION IN UKRAINE IN THIS TOPIC:
http://www.russianwomendiscussion.com/index.php?topic=8429.0
YES, TRIED TO READ ALL 20 PAGES....John K
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Re: Economic Mournings
« Reply #290 on: December 11, 2008, 09:16:10 AM » Quote
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Well, I heard about all this before my wife ever went over. Marina chats with her mother on ICQ almost every day and also by phone a couple of times a week. Marina's godmother is an officer in the bank, so she is privy to a lot of knowledge.
I talked with Marina a couple of nights ago and she told me that ATMs no longer dispense dollars, which I figured would happen. Apparently, the 10% fee is even applying to ATMs, at least that is what I'm being told. Also, the hryvna is trading 7 to the dollar right now, but the banks expect it to go to 14 to the dollar after the new year. Everyone is hoarding dollars...
As far as the extinguisher and first aid kit go, I don't know if it's an old law or a new one. I do know that all the cops are out on practically every street corner, stopping any car that looks expensive, so they can get their "fine". If you drive an old beat up Ukrainian car they don't stop you very often.
Marina is only over there for 2 months this time, but to be honest, this is the first trip I've ever worried about her well being while she's over there. I can easily see the whole situation over there destabilizing in a big way...
John K
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Ukrainian Economic Situation
« Reply #286 on: December 08, 2008, 04:45:16 PM » Quote
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The Hryvna has depreciated against the dollar about 100% from this summer. When I was over there in late July, the hryvna was around 4-4.5 hryvnas to the dollar. Now, it is at 8 hryvnas to the dollar, with banks expecting it to go to 10 after the new year.
This is a serious concern to travellers abroad for a number of reasons. First, you can only legally exchange your dollars for hryvnas at banks, now. If you try to exchange them on the street at a street exchange and you get caught, you will go to jail! Second, banks are taking a 10% "transaction fee" for every dollar you exchange for hryvnas. Third, banks will no longer change hryvnas for dollars. The Ukrainian banks are hoarding dollars and refuse to give them out.
I believe there is no problem getting dollars out of ATMs yet, but if I hear differently I will let you know.
Remember, forewarned is forearmed...
PS: Don't go driving a car in Ukraine, unless you have a fire extinguisher and first aid kit in the car. If you are stopped by a cop and you don't have these items, it is a $50 fine. Of course, the cops are stopping the new, nice cars especially...
ScottinCrimea
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Re: Economic Mournings
« Reply #246 on: November 21, 2008, 07:39:58 PM » Quote
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My wife just got back from Crimea and I was quizzing her on how things are there now. She says much has changed in the year that she has been gone. Apparently people there went on a credit spending spree. She says there are now so many cars around Simferopol that it's practically bumper to bumper. And these aren't just Lada's and Moskvich's, but cars ranging in the $30,000 plus range. Hard to say how many of these will get repossessed now that many are losing work and the ability to pay the monthly payments, especially with the high interest rates there on consumer credit. She also said a lot more people have taken out mortgages on houses and apartments. The banks are desperately trying to work out alternate arrangements to avoid foreclosure because they don't want to dump a bunch of foreclosed property on the market, further driving down the prices. So far they have dropped about 30%. As I read the newspaper she brought with her, it shows car prices down 10%, computers and other electronics 10%, gas 10%, fur coats 20% and food prices stable, though she noted that food prices are a minimum of 100% higher than a year ago. For example the samt 10 eggs you could buy before for 4 hrv are now 10 hrv. Natural gas deliver has been cut 30% causing some difficulty in keeping their homes warm. She had a really difficult time getting dollars as no one wanted to give them up, and at the airport she couldn't find anyone who would exchange the hryvn she had left so she just spent it on souvenirs.
Most there are as much or more pessimistic about the near future as those here and expect at least two years of difficult times. Still, I think for most it's just a disappointing return to the way things were for them not so long ago.
As far as our property there, the 30% is a drop in the bucket since the value lof our apartment has increases 300% since we bought it. In reality the value is irrelevant because we have no intentions of ever selling it. Its value as a home remains the same. As far as our commercial property, in the short run, between the higher dollar and the cheaper cost of labor and supplies, the remodel will cost less. In the mid to long term, we may have more difficulty finding tenants and will probably have to lease it for less, but financially it's just an extra for us and since we never paid money to purchase it and pay cash only for the remodel, therefore having no debt on it, it's not such a big deal. We can wait it out.
On the ligher side, it's great to have my wife back.
groovlstk
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Re: Economic Mournings
« Reply #197 on: October 28, 2008, 07:26:53 PM » Quote
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Makkin,
Awhile back you mentioned that you had a fiancee in Ukraine. I hope things worked out for you and I doubly hope you were able to get her out of there. Things seem to be going from bad to worse. For those of us with family in Ukraine and Russia, the next year is going to be interesting.
groovlstk
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Re: Economic Mournings
« Reply #152 on: October 26, 2008, 06:06:12 PM » Quote
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Quote from: Andrew James on October 26, 2008, 05:37:19 PM
Moreover, I feel there is a risk (with aspiring husbands like me) of appearing like a cynical opportunist in such times, ready to swoop and save the day when countries (and more significantly, their women) are trouble. Might bring out the White Knight in us, but from what I have read here, this is a very bad foundation for a lasting relationship, especially as Russians are (rightly) a very proud and passionate people, emotions that nonetheless have their dark side.
This risk runs both ways, if conditions worsen you'll have a wider pool of desperate women eager to relocate to more prosperous countries. While some men will love their new-found ability to date even further out of their league than before, ultimately this is a bad thing once fiancee visas are issued and women who emigrated for reasons other than love discard their foolish suitors for more worthy men.
If economic conditions do worsen in Russia and Ukraine, before even dipping your foot in the pool you should come to terms with the likelihood that if you find and marry a woman, you will very likely be on the hook for supporting her family through difficult times.
ambach123
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Re: Economic Mournings
« Reply #136 on: October 25, 2008, 04:06:58 PM » Quote
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Consider the following scenario:
The banks are shut down, and so is the stock market. The foreigners have withdrawn all of the money out of the country. The country has defaulted on its loan. The local currency has no value, there is no legitimate channel to convert it into dollars.
People are buying from the stores and hoarding, with whatever money they have. There are no jobs anywhere, the economy is almost shut down.
The country is bankrupt.
This is Iceland of today, and Ukraine of tomorrow.
Consider this, Iceland used to be one of the richest countries in the world.
ambach123
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Re: Economic Mournings
« Reply #126 on: October 25, 2008, 07:34:41 AM » Quote
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When I was in Kiev six weeks ago, I saw a lot of cars, construction everywhere, a sense of prosperity and of course high prices. Restaurants were full, foreigners everywhere.
Little did I know that all of this was a house of cards. None of these people paid for any of this. They borrowed from the banks who lent them the money that foreigners had invested in there.
These foreigners have pulled out their money from Ukraine.
I think sooner or later and probably very soon, Ukraine would be a bankrupt country; what happened in late nineties would look like a picnic.
IMF, where Ukraine has gone to for help, has most of word coming to them; I doubt if they would or can help.
It is stunning how in a few weeks a seemingly prosperous country can go bankrupt; even though that prosperity was a mirage.
In a matter of weeks the Ukrainian currency will be devalued to one half of what it was a few weeks ago.
ScottinCrimea
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Re: Economic Mournings
« Reply #27 on: October 10, 2008, 02:28:52 PM » Quote
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I'm curious to know how people think Ukraine will suffer more than we will in the US, particularly the average Ukrainian. They don't as a rule have mortgages, so they aren't in danger of losing their houses, even if they might lose their jobs. The average person deals on a cash level and is not accustomed to having credit so this isn't much of a change for them. They don't invest in the stock market and whether it goes up or down doesn't affect their portfolios. Many, like my wife's family, have a dacha where they grow and preserve their own food. Their everyday economy is really more local that international or even national. Of course there is the issue of decreased value of the grivna raising the prices of imports and some basic commodities, and the increased potential for job loss without the safety net of unemployment insurance, but they are quite used to dealing with shortages and subsisting on a bare minimum, so it would seem like just another cycle to them.
As far as government services and benefits being cut, there isn't that much in the first place, so nothing really changes there.
Of course the wealthy, the banks and those involved in international business and commerce will be hit, but I'm not sure I see that trickling down to the common man so much.
I'd be interested in hearing others' views on this.
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Re: Economic Mournings
« Reply #33 on: October 10, 2008, 04:58:51 PM » Quote
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Hmmm,
I suppose you might try telling a Ukrainian that they won't suffer and the reaction they might have is I'm already suffering?
Imagine every economic sector of the western world suffering and even those like the Ukrainians will suffer more. It's a trickle down or trickle up problem that has no safety net in sight except the financial sector and business as usual.
Surely the less production of food will happen and those countries who give to the poor may give less?
Ukrainians will suffer more because what they have seen now is nothing compared to what is about to happen in Europe.
Makkin
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Re: Economic Mournings
« Reply #38 on: October 10, 2008, 09:49:55 PM » Quote
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Makkin
Makkin, you didnt provide any specifics about specifically how Ukrainians will suffer more except that there might be less production of food in other countries so they won't send so much to a poor country such as Ukraine. To my best knowledge, Ukraine doesn't depend on food donations from other countries. They seem to produce their own quite nicely and have enough to export as well.
The average Ukrainain has been working without a safety net for a long time now. They have learned not to depend on their government to bail them out in hard times as we have in the West. They depend on their own resources and on their family and friends. We have gotten too used to either borrowing more money to survive in hard times or expecting government programs to prop us up. We haven't built up the savings or types of relationships that will pull us through hard times. Now that the credit has dried up, the government is broke and our "friends" are looking the other way, we're lost.
Of course I'm generalizing to a large degree. Many in the West used their common sense and were prepared, especially those who went through some of the financial crises of the past and learned their lesson. Perhaps this is all a good "teaching moment" for those who won't learn from the past.
I don't disagree that Russia in general will suffer more, but again, that those most affected will be those in the upper middle class and above and those in the larger cities such as Moscow and SPB whose economies have grown on the back of the rise in oil prices. Russia is a big, diverse country and it would be difficult to make any type of generalizations. That's why I chose to focus more on Ukraine.