Dubious Mathematics at A Foreign Affair

[jb]

Truly, BC, it does seem long odds....

[ConnerVT]

The long odds are all more the reason to find a special person to partner with in this endeavor.  Not only do you need to 'float each other's boat', you need to find a woman who's strong but not domineering; confident but not conceited; adventuresome (but not in an extreme sport kind of way); calm and well-balanced emotionally.  As any gambler knows, you need to bring enough assets to the table to win the big pot.

I am truly fortunate to find this woman. :cool:

[jb]

As,,,, am I.

Thank you Conner for reminding me.  I need to go kiss my wife now.

[RacerX]

the succes rate is very low after one year ( 17.7% ).... Hey guys, for these of you who have make a K1 one year ago, you are lucky...

No, it just means that 82% of them received advance parole and went to visit Mom & Dad after they applied for AOS - which would take 6+ months typically.  In my experience, nearlly all k-1 visa girls remain in America.

[Bruno]

the succes rate is very low after one year ( 17.7% ).... Hey guys, for these of you who have make a K1 one year ago, you are lucky...

No, it just means that 82% of them received advance parole and went to visit Mom & Dad after they applied for AOS - which would take 6+ months typically. In my experience, nearlly all k-1 visa girls remain in America.[/quote]
These data was about all K1... it was already more of 50% after 6 month... but these data was for all world country...

It is why i have search better information that i have publish after ... on the 156155 adult russian woman living in US, only 14665 are divorced ... unfortunaly, 26295 are widowed ...

Around only 10% of the marriage WITH RUSSIAN WOMAN lead to divorce...

[jb]

I don't know of a single K-1 girl who went back to the FSU after she was here more than 6 months.  There have been a couple who went back within 2-4 weeks after finding things were not as described, but I'd think that was pretty normal.

I even know of a couple who got here and found out they'd been flat out lied to, knucked down, went to work, got an alcoholic b/f on the straight and narrow, solved the problems and have very successful marriages now. These women are strong and tough, do not be confused or mis-led by the soft, sweet exterior, there's iron on the inside.

[Journeyman]

EPILOGUE: Do you think AFA got the message?

You might have notice, a few weeks ago AFA finally decided to change its dubious claim of having "7 engagements every day."  So, let's give them credit for at least not maintaining THAT patently outrageous claim any longer.

Now, their new "mathematics" is to somehow actually list the number of engagements "this year."  As of Thursday, August 11, 2005, they count 517 engagements for "this year."  Hmmmm.  Don't know if that is supposed to be since January 1st, 2005, or during the last 12 months.  Who know (and who cares!).  But, let's give them the benefit of the doubt, and do the math (just for a few giggles. :P

If since January 1st, AFA would now have an average daily engagement rate of approximately 2.33 engagements per day.  That is 1/3rd of what they had claimed previously.  And remember, they defefended the previous claim VIGOROUSLY -- particularly on the "other board."  But, once again, let's give them the benefit of the doubt, and say that they have now corrected their counting methods -- at least a little.  Well, actually, I still don't really buy it.  But again, I'm not losing any sleep over it.

None of us will ever really know what AFA (or any other agency for that matter) means by "engagement," and then counts as such.  But, really, who cares much anymore.  Simply said, the point has been made.  Their mathematics was a bit dubious -- unless, perhaps, their average is being weighed down right now by being in a bit of a slump  . :P:P  Of course, that could very well be true.  

I think the bottom line is that AFA has issued about as much of an "admission" as we will ever hear from them.  A kind of "nolo contendre."
  :cool:  

Just let me say it once . . . BUSTED!

Journeyman

[Bruno]

None of us will ever really know what AFA (or any other agency for that matter) means by "engagement," and then counts as such.

When i wrote "engaged" on my site, it mean that the person is on the way to marriage... procedure for K1 or ready local marriage in view of K3...

It seem to me that the term "engagement" is like the term "fiance"...

Sign : "A other agency"


PS : it seem that the term "other board" become usual since the last post... is it something that i have miss here, some new rule ? Make reference in a post to something we cannot control and read is realy crazy... better write nothing...

[Journeyman]

Bruno,

The "other board" -- RWGuide.  I am just reluctant to mention them too much for fear that newbies will absorb too much of the misleading ideas posted over there.

I'd certainly accept initiating the K-1 process as strong evidence of an engagement; and certainly K-3s.  On the other hand, there are plenty of RW who withdraw from the "engagement" before going to the man's country.  AFA certainly does not claim to define it in those terms (K-1 or K-3, as you do)-- though it would be great if they did.

Bruno, it is good that you can be an exception to the general rule.  There are a few good agencies out there.  You are right to defend yourself regarding that comment.

Journeyman

[Bruno]

My agency is a detail, it is my "toy"... i see the think like any "customer" since i am one too... i am not here for business but for find a wife... this give me a other view on the proces... so, for me, i will be engaged the day i have make my marriage proposal to a lady and she reply "yes"... About withdraw from engagement, it is true on the both side... several people use the K1 without be realy fiance... they use it like test periode... in normal life, test periode come before your proposal... you don't make a proposal if you are not sure that you wish mary the woman... it is hypocrisis... and woman need to reply "yes" only when she is sure... some people use some excuses like the short in time, the expense of several trip... but a wrong choice at these early stage of relation can lead to big mistake after... once married, it is a little late for think about the build of relation... I have make these mistake with my first marriage with russian woman... too much fast... and the result is 5 year for nothing and a lot of money ( take care of a non working wife and a child during 5 year is a very big expense when compare to the price of some trip for know each other better ).

[PeeWee]

I am on board with these statistics. I thought the odds of success were low early on. To aid me in my ultimate success I tried to think of the things that would sway the odds more to my favore. Such as; I chose a woman who speaks fluelt English. One who has visited the US on many occasions and can judge for herself what we Americans are like and how we live. One who has a job and wants to contiune working in the US and the job is one that can instantly transfer skills without further training. A woman with a child that has also visited and lived in the US and interacted with American childern via the summer camps. Even with this I can see the pitfalls. But I have tried to anticipate the problems and as a result I feel somewhat prepared for this. I hope that some of the suprises have been eliminated. She has met my family twice, my son, my brothers, my mom and dad. They all like her and her child. If in the end we make it then that is what we both wanted. If we fail then I still feel that she will have her career here in the US, her daughter will have her education, and I will have at least tried to make it work.

 

PeeWee