Western Concern Grows Over Tymoshenko Arrest..bail requests rejected

[JohnDearGreen]

She looks innocent enough for me:

[mendeleyev]

Boethius, I certainly meant no disrespect and you have every right to express your views. Your contributions are important.

Rather than debate the character of the former PM, I think that for Ukraine the most crucial thing is to come to a lasting agreement with Russia over gas. That will go further in stablizing Ukraine's economy than any trial. The see-saw back and forth each year over gas prices plays well for Moscow but hurts Ukraine.

I also apologize for making snide comments about President Yanukovich. Sometimes it is difficult for me to control my anger in his case due to the deaths of several professional journalists who died in very clouded circumstances when Kuchma was president and Yanukovich his prime minister. It would be easy to consider both to be of the highest form of evil, and journalists are human--like everyone else we must struggle to maintaining a proper line between professional reporting and giving in to the desire for revenge.

In the 1,000 year celebration of Saint Sophia Cathedral, Mr. Yanukovich displayed what some would deem to be a genuine spirit of humility as he took time to light candles at each icon during a private tour. I must admit a great deal of doubt in my mind as to how much was for show and if any of it was genuine--only to be reminded that on such things I am not the judge as that role is reserved for someone much higher than myself.

My mother-in-law likes him. But she lived the life of a Soviet diplomat's wife (my late father in law) and was herself a Moscow university professor and in a different time rubbed shoulders with ranking party members the likes of Yanukovich and also the dictator of Belarus, another individual who demands great challenges when it comes to respecting the office held.

In a previous post I mentioned that Mr. Yanukovich had just gone to Moscow last week (24 September) and readers may be interested to know that Nataliya Timakova, spokeswoman for President Medvedev, has confirmed that certain as-of-yet undisclosed agreements regarding gas delivery were reached during the meeting with Mr. Medvedev and Mr. Putin.

I'm hoping that for the sake of Ukraine this will lead to an easing on the economy and that this trial will be put to bed and allow Ukraine to move forward, not backward.


(photo: Capital Press Service, Kyiv & Presidential Press Service, Moscow)

[Boethius]

No apology necessary, Mendy.

I have no particular love for Yanukovich, either.

[mendeleyev]

Update:

President Yanukovich's representative in Parliament (Verkhovna Rada), Yuri Myroshnychenko, yesterday (28 September, Wednesday) introduced a presidential draft bill on the decriminalization of economic crimes.

"If punishment is replaced with fines exceeding the damage caused, it would be a good lesson for offender and the state will get compensation," Myroshnychenko explained.

The draft bill included amendments to the Criminal Code for abolishing 18 articles designed to prevent corruption in the law enforcement bodies.

In response to suggestions from Western nations, the Yanukovich draft bill also proposes to limit detention of prisoners and introduces the concept of Western style bail bonds in certain cases.

[I/O]

Update:

President Yanukovich's representative in Parliament (Verkhovna Rada), Yuri Myroshnychenko, yesterday (28 September, Wednesday) introduced a presidential draft bill on the decriminalization of economic crimes.

"If punishment is replaced with fines exceeding the damage caused, it would be a good lesson for offender and the state will get compensation," Myroshnychenko explained.

The draft bill included amendments to the Criminal Code for abolishing 18 articles designed to prevent corruption in the law enforcement bodies.

In response to suggestions from Western nations, the Yanukovich draft bill also proposes to limit detention of prisoners and introduces the concept of Western style bail bonds in certain cases.

Surprise surprise, Goldilocks walks. 

[SANDRO43]

President Yanukovich's representative in Parliament (Verkhovna Rada), Yuri Myroshnychenko, yesterday (28 September, Wednesday) introduced a presidential draft bill on the decriminalization of economic crimes.

Copycat, our Berlusconi did that a few years ago . Of course, his being involved in a couple of court cases on that issue had no bearing on the matter .

[Muzh]

Surprise surprise, Goldilocks walks. 

That's what you think.
 
My friends tell the that this bill excludes Goldilocks.
 
And Mendy, I'm not a journalist so I'll say it for you: YANUKONVICT. There.

[Jack]

Muzh, you must remember, per Bothius,  "alleged"  convict.   

[Muzh]

Muzh, you must remember, per Bothius,  "alleged"  convict.

That's fine with me Jack. I'm neither a journalist nor a lawyer. 

[Boethius]

I never stated Yanukovych wasn't convicted.  I stated the circumstances of his pardon for robbery were extremely unusual for the USSR, which indicates to me that something beyond a simple criminal case was at play.

[SteveOR]

 
An interesting opinion piece in today's Kyiv Post written by Tymoshenko's daughter:
 
http://www.kyivpost.com/news/opinion/op_ed/detail/113798/
 
Selected quotes:
 
"…First of all, I know that you’re not guilty. And I’m not saying this because that’s probably what all children in the world would say. Everyone in the courtroom, all the journalists, the diplomats, all the people who have been sleeping in tents on Khreshchatyk for the past two months, and millions of other people in Ukraine who are watching this farce, that for some reason it being called a court, know this.

 I’m not familiar with gas contracts and I didn’t study the criminal code, but I remember how you taught me to love this country, and I know how much YOU love it, and I know that you would never have done anything bad or hurtful to Ukraine. For me this is more important that a hundred thousand codes, arguments and criminal cases together....    I remember how happy you were during the Orange Revolution, that so many people spoke Ukrainian for the first time, that millions sang the Ukrainian anthem together for the first time…Thank you, my dear mum, that this happened, that there was such a period in our history…It happened, thanks to you….I’m not a politician and I have the right to say so and think so…"

[Muzh]

An interesting opinion piece in today's Kyiv Post written by Tymoshenko's daughter:
 
http://www.kyivpost.com/news/opinion/op_ed/detail/113798/
 
Selected quotes:
 
"…First of all, I know that you’re not guilty. And I’m not saying this because that’s probably what all children in the world would say. Everyone in the courtroom, all the journalists, the diplomats, all the people who have been sleeping in tents on Khreshchatyk for the past two months, and millions of other people in Ukraine who are watching this farce, that for some reason it being called a court, know this.

 I’m not familiar with gas contracts and I didn’t study the criminal code, but I remember how you taught me to love this country, and I know how much YOU love it, and I know that you would never have done anything bad or hurtful to Ukraine. For me this is more important that a hundred thousand codes, arguments and criminal cases together....    I remember how happy you were during the Orange Revolution, that so many people spoke Ukrainian for the first time, that millions sang the Ukrainian anthem together for the first time…Thank you, my dear mum, that this happened, that there was such a period in our history…It happened, thanks to you….I’m not a politician and I have the right to say so and think so…"

Steve, you've been had. The only thing she studied was mama's Gucci, D&G and Louis Vitton's catalogs. During the Orange Revolution she was partying studying in London.

[SteveOR]

 
It's an opinion peice.  Not news.  I posted it because I found it interesting and thought others might as well. . .
 
 

[Jack]

 My friends tell the that this bill excludes Goldilocks.
 

Muzh, maybe not.



President Victor Yanucrookvych hinted that he is looking for a way out of the trial of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, which is  threatening to undermine his attempts to sign an association agreement with the European Union.

Speaking at the Yalta European Strategy conference, Yanucrookvych raised the prospect of an overhaul of the Soviet-era Criminal and Criminal Procedure Codes, which analysts say could lead to Tymoshenko being released and allowed to take part in elections.



In the past few days the European Union have pretty much stated if Tymoshenko is jailed that Ukraine can pretty much forget joining the EU.  This is something Yanucrookvych has really pressed for and the opportunity will crumble before him if he continues this circus with Tymoshenko.

My gut feeling, and hope, is Yanucrookvych is going to in the next week to 10 days make an announcement that for the good of the country, he hates to see the country divided over this, he is going to give full pardon or pass this new law which will set Tymoshenko free. 

He really did not want to do this as Tymoshenko was really his only top rival for the next presidential election and over the past two months Tymoshenko has gained more and more support, enough to put her over the top as she lost the election by just a few percentage points.

Yanucrookvych, as the current president, has to feel by hook or crook, probably crook, he will be able to steal the election if Tymoshenko was to win.

[mendeleyev]

Jack, I think you are right. For good or bad, there was a lot of activity going back and forth Rus/Ukr in regards to this trial and the timing very interesting.

1- It was important enough that Yanukovich was summoned to Moscow during the United Russia party congress. This was important as Medvedev was going to announce that Putin would return to the top spot. It was also smart as the focus on the world press was on the presidential election announcement, thereby giving the opportunity to come to a Ukrainian solution without the normal focus of the media.

2- Even with the congress going on, they met outside Moscow at the presidential dacha.

3- Putin joined Medvedev and Yanukovich for those meetings.

4- Yanukovich had painted himself in a corner and it seemed no way to walk out without egg on his face. At the same time the collective West as hammering him for a solution.

5- After meeting with the master of political maneuvering (Putin), Mr. Yanukovich returned home and just a few days later came the sudden announcement of the new legislation regarding financial crimes.

To continue the trial will at some point bring up the signers of the agreement: The Rada of Ukraine and Duma of Russia with approval by both prime ministers and both heads of state. This implicates Putin if Ukraine continues to insist that it was an illegal deal. Putin doesn't tolerate unbridled criticism and I'm guessing that Yanukovich is still smarting from the spanking he received in Moscow.

[Jack]

Mendy hopefully were both correct with the final results but our philosophies could differ as to how we got there.

Actually Yanucrookvych's ideal of changing the Soviet-era Criminal Procedure Codes came on September 16th, some 8 days before being summoned to Moscow.

Putin's main objective was to get Kiev to join the Moscow lead trading bloc to give up control over strategic natural gas pipelines and suggested Ukraine to sell it's pipeline to Moscow or merge the two countries state gas companies.  In addition Putin has been pounding Yanucrookvych to have Kiev (Ukraine) to join a customs union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.

Putin does not like Yanucrookvych ( from a leaked US diplomatic cable Russian Foreign Minister Kostyantyn Gryshchenko was quoted as saying Putin "has a low personal regard for Yanucrookvych) and has mocked the Ukraine's President attempt of joining the European Union.   Putin realizes if Ukraine join's the European Union that Ukraine could not be part of the customs union is trying to put together.  Yanucrookvych wants Ukraine to be accepted into the EU.   The EU has said in the past two day's this is not happening if Tymoshenko is jailed.   

Yes, Yanucrookvych has painted himself into a corner.  We know, as shown last winter, what Russia can do to punish Ukraine for not following the party line, cutting off it's gas supplies during the dead of winter.  So Yanucrookvych will need to do something to please Putin with regards to the pipeline, as well as the EU in order to be accepted.

[mendeleyev]

The desire to purchase the pipeline has been on the agenda for some time as has the customs union. For Ukraine, the custom's union would mean saying goodbye to EU status. That "union" is misleading because it has far most scope than simply a custom's integration: it folds postal services into the control of Moscow as well as plans for a unified currency at some point (Russian ruble). Most importantly, it provides for the eventual creation of a unified military communications (including internal security issues), led by Moscow of course. Obviously Ukraine can't do that and be in the EU as well.

So far, Kazakhstan and Belarus has signed on and the "union" is moving full speed ahead. Look for pressure to continue for Uzbekistan and certain other former republics to be courted. The Uzbeks had agreed earlier but have not shown the same level of excitement/participation as of late.

[SteveOR]

He really did not want to do this as Tymoshenko was really his only top rival for the next presidential election and over the past two months Tymoshenko has gained more and more support, enough to put her over the top as she lost the election by just a few percentage points.

Yanucrookvych, as the current president, has to feel by hook or crook, probably crook, he will be able to steal the election if Tymoshenko was to win.

I think I read somewhere (maybe upthread, can't remember) that the only reason that Tymoshenko was jailed is because she had a good chance to win the next election.  Do you think this is true?  Wouldn't be the first time that jail was used to keep a political rival from being elected.
 
I've heard the EU talk before about Ukraine.  Is that a real possibility given today's problems with Greece (and Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland)?  Former Soviet states have joined the EU and Estonia even borders Russia but Ukraine feels different.  I think (correct me if I'm wrong) that Russia and Ukraine are much closer and have a longer history than Estonia or the other Baltic states or even Poland and the Czech Republic. . .
 

[I/O]

That's what you think.

Yep, sooner or later, she walks, apart from all else, Putin needs that to happen.

[Jack]

she walks, apart from all else, Putin needs that to happen.

I/O would like to hear your reasoning and thought process as to why Putin needs that to happen. 

I think I read somewhere (maybe upthread, can't remember) that the only reason that Tymoshenko was jailed is because she had a good chance to win the next election.  Do you think this is true? 

Yes Steve, it is the reasoning Yanucrookvych elected to jail  JT.   But it has back fired on him.  Everyone, well with few exceptions, I think we will have one mod here, see's this was politically motivated.  The charges he came up with, and let their be no doubt, this was all Yanucrookvych's doing, were pie in the sky charges.  He should have found something more solid to go after her on.  The charges presented are so weak governments of the world see it and are speaking out.

Yanucrookvych loves this feeling of power and is trying to copy things that have been done in neighboring Belarus and Russia in which he can maintain control of Ukraine for many years to come.  Julia would be the one possible individual that would have a great chance, not a good chance but a great chance of upsetting him in the next Presidential election.   Yanucrookvych's popularity in Ukraine is really low.  So many people who voted for him, I can count 25 or 30 people that I have spoken to personally that say they voted for him and realize it was a mistake.  If the election were to be held in the next 6 month it would not even be close between JT and Yanucrookvych.     But if   VY  (Victor Yanucrookvych) jails JT it is going to cause a real unrest and division of the country that he will be fighting everyday not to mention not being able to join the EU.

I've heard the EU talk before about Ukraine.  Is that a real possibility given today's problems with Greece (and Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland)?

It's more than a possibility Steve, it will happen if Ukraine meet's certain conditions.  VK realizes this could help his presidency.  And many countries of the west want to do business with Ukraine for many reasons, it's natural resources, the most fertile growing land in the world, not to mention putting a wedge between Ukr and Moscow.

Former Soviet states have joined the EU and Estonia even borders Russia but Ukraine feels different. 

Not sure what you mean as to Ukraine feel's different.  Might want to elaborate.

I think (correct me if I'm wrong) that Russia and Ukraine are much closer and have a longer history than Estonia or the other Baltic states or even Poland and the Czech Republic. . .

Of course their is a long history of the two.  You can not know or learn the history of Russia without knowing, learning of the history of Ukraine.

After Ghangis Kahn's grandson destroyed Kiev in December of 1240, it is estimated that the fifth largest civilization in the world at that time came to an end.  The Kiev Rus dynasty had ended. Kiev, 500 years older than the little fur trading village of Moscoviy, on the Moscow river, for a time existed no more.  In the late 1200's and early 1300's father's told their children about the Rus men and the land of Rus  (Kiev Rus).  In the mid 1300's, early 1400's, grandfathers told their grandchildren about the land of Rus and the proud Rus men who had told the roaming Mongol Tatars no.

For the first time in world history during the reign of the first Russian Czar in about the year 1548-1549, the word "Russia",  land of Rus, was introduced to the world.  Land of Rus,.... Kiev Rus.  Ukraine is and will always be Mother Russia.  During the Soviet times Ukraine was known as Russia's bread basket as Ukraine could feed all of Russia.

The biggest mistake made by Moscow in 1991 was sending that letter to Kiev, as Moscow had done with Minisk, with Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the rest of the FSU, Moscow would be sending no more checks.  You are on your own.  The Soviet Union had broken up.    Moscow could have kept Ukraine and the world would have never said a word.  But Moscow let Ukraine get away and in 1991 Ukraine gained it's Independence. 

It was certainly not Putin's idea to let Ukraine get away and in fact on more than one occasion has questioned Ukraine's territorial integrity.  At a NATO conference in 2008 Putin told then President George Bush  "You understand George, Ukraine is not even a state".   

It's probably good for Ukraine right now that Putin does not like Yanucrookvych and it has been said that Yanucrookvych does not care for Putin and is trying to distance himself.  Yanucrookvych's attempt to join the EU against Putin's strong advice not to do this is one good example. 

[Boethius]

The biggest mistake made by Moscow in 1991 was sending that letter to Kiev, as Moscow had done with Minisk, with Moldova, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and the rest of the FSU, Moscow would be sending no more checks.  You are on your own.  The Soviet Union had broken up.    Moscow could have kept Ukraine and the world would have never said a word.  But Moscow let Ukraine get away and in 1991 Ukraine gained it's Independence. 

Ukraine declared independence within five days of the failed coup.  Thousands of diaspora Ukrainians started moving to Kyiv within a month of that declaration.  Many had been actively working in Ukraine since the late 1980's.  That influence helped to establish a functioning legal system (better than Russia's, but still lacking), an independent judiciary (making good inroads until this was reversed during the latter part of Yushchenko's term in office), new universities and chairs of learning (the Kyiv Mohyla Academy was reestablished almost exclusively by diaspora Ukrainians), and  independent journalism, to name but a few areas in which Ukraine surpasses Russia.  They were predominantly active during Kuchma's years as president, though some stayed through part of Yushchenko's term of office as well.  Many had long careers in the West, where they were influential in American and European government circles, as political scientists, foreign policy and economic advisors.  I personally know a great many of those diaspora Ukrainians (some of whom, sadly, are now deceased), and I know that they recognized what they were up against, and sacrificed careers, or gave up comfortable retirements, in the hope they could build a great European independent country.  Ukraine was fortunate to have many of these talented people.  Many others, predominantly in government and universities, travelled back and forth, and established educational programmes to train Ukrainians abroad.

Once Ukraine declared independence, the fact Ukraine's historical territories were fully intact, and, for the first time in Ukraine's history, there was significant diplomatic support for its independence, meant going back to Russia was not going to happen.

As for Tymoshenko, she is an excellent representative of what the Soviet system produced. 

[I/O]

I/O would like to hear your reasoning and thought process as to why Putin needs that to happen. 

Another step in undoing what he referred to (in words something like this) as one of the greatest geopolitical disasters of modern times.

Oh, and it doesn't look good in the west, a group who'd like to stop buying your gas and sponsor the Caspian line and a group you'd like to join in with, to have your partner to a deal jailed for that very deal..............

[Jack]

he referred to (in words something like this) as one of the greatest geopolitical disasters of modern times.

I/O agreed that Putin, and now many world leaders, have indicated this is a geopolitical disaster.   As an excellent example as to the type of individual that the Soviet Union could produce, Yanucrookvych has to be seen as a big embarrassment.

But my question to you I/O is why you say Putin  "needs this to happen",  for JT to be set free.  What do you see that he, or Moscow/Russia, will gain by JT being set free?

Putin needs that to happen.

[Manny]

In the past few days the European Union have pretty much stated if Tymoshenko is jailed that Ukraine can pretty much forget joining the EU.  This is something Yanucrookvych has really pressed for and the opportunity will crumble before him if he continues this circus with Tymoshenko.

The likelihood of Ukraine joining the EU is very, very slim and would be many years away in any event. I think we learned already that we don't need any more penniless lame ducks in the EU. We also don't want to all have to pay to drag yet another corrupt second world country into the first world.

You service providers best hope Ukraine stays out of the EU, as the moment they join, the MOB industry there will pretty much close down overnight as it did in Latvia, Lithuania, Czech and Estonia. 

[JohnDearGreen]

There are also reports that

"...Tymoshenko has secretly agreed to foreign policy concessions to Russia in exchange for waving $8 billion natural gas penalty.  Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, following a meeting with Tymoshenko late Thursday, said the penalty was waved due to “special” relationship between Kiev and Moscow. He never elaborated."

http://ukrainianjournal.com/index.php?w=article&id=9530
If that is true, it is abuse of power.


Yulia's $11B is much less than the rumored $40B of Putin:
http://www.venik4.com/2009/07/russian-billionaire-gennady-timchenko-drops-libel-case-against-economist/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2007/dec/21/russia.topstories3



"...A week after the Meiendorf dinner, I asked one of Russia’s early oligarchs, a billionaire who attended the gathering with Medvedev, about the future of the country’s oligarchy. The tycoon took a sip of green tea, leant back in his oversized black leather chair and broke into a wry grin. “We’ve long ceased to be oligarchs,” he said. “We’re just businessmen. Putin vowed to bring back the power of the state and succeeded. Power still very much lies with him. As for the true oligarchs, the men with both power and money, there are still a few in Russia — but they are our leaders, the men running the country.”  (February 22, 2009) http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/specials/rich_list/article5760128.ece "