Belarus Revolt...Stay Tuned

[andrewfi]

Yes Tim, it is hard to think of a single example where an imposed model of democracy, akin to that practiced in the US, has been successful, without previous history of some form of representative governement. (and yes, I include Japan which for many years was hardly a model of real democracy...)

As to why people like the status quo, I have friends here, who are, by US standards, middle class, by local standards pretty well-off, who notwithstanding their success, bemoan the fact that life is much harder, less predictable and in many ways, simply less good. Having spent time fishing, partying and just hangin' with them and knowing that what we do now is rarity, compared to the situation a few years ago, I understand.

BTW, I have a friend who has sent her daughter off to Belarus to go live with her grandparents, the kid loves it there and mum thinks the place is great, a good environment for raising kids and certainly not a terribly low standard of living.

[Lysander]

My bride to be is Belorussian and I spent a short 12 days there some time back So I thought I'd comment.
For some reason, I can't cut and paste, but for anyone interested I  suggest reading a piece by Mark Almond in the 3/21/06 Guardian.

I don't agree with all of it, but its worthwhile reading. As for  Lukashenko, I wouldn't want him for my president, but I doubt I'd trust  the good will of foriegn nations to help me get rid of him.

And I can't help but suspect that if Lukashenko were anti-Russian his dictatorial excesses would be quickly forgiven.


Best,

Lysander

[Voyageur]

PG ~ Many people in the US and Western Europe do not understand how life was for many, if not most in the FSU in Soviet times.  

 

This is such a true statement...I often wonder how I could have ever thought that the US press was unbiased and fair in its reportings about USSR?

I asked my wife (she was a member of the Pioneers as a schoolgirl) if she was ever forced to accept any kind of Commuist teachings, and she said "Never".  She said that Russian people treat politics and politicians and elections like a joke, and that is one of the reasons for the corruption.  They "system" in the USSR and to some extent Russia is treated with contempt.

She says that people are more afraid of consequences in the US (as in getting cought for wrong-doings), where anything short of murder was possible to get away with (given an appropriate amount of "blat") in her country .

[andrewfi]

Voyageur ~ I do not know how old your wife is, but I guess, older than about 35. What she says highlights a very important point about life in the Soviet Union, one whose passing is regretted by many, even as they climb out of their new car, walk to the front door of their new house and sit down in front of the new LCD or plasma tv...

One could choose to be totally apart from the decision making processes of life. One could choose not to think about politics, about housing, jobs or even relationships. Life could be very simple and for many, many people this is an attractive scenario. Things are differnt now and with a generally increased standard of living, in economic terms at least, comes an increased responsibility to oneself and ones community. Becasue the 'old' system was such a totaly different mindset to that in the US it is hardly surprising that the media were unable to protray an accurate picture (still can not!) This coems not from malice, but simply from an inability to comprehend the social dynamic. Of course, this situation exists in reverse from Soviet Union and successors, to the US and the west - hence the difficulties many guys and women have in uderstanding each, the other.

Today, younger people show a shift in attitude, but many people from outside stil say that it is hard to get young, intelligent people to take responsibility for their own outcomes. I tend to agree with them, notwithstanding the reality that young people everywhere tend toward the same kind of attitude. Of course, there are also the highly motivated ones, whose dedication and application can be a tad disconcerting - a different reaction to the same situation and, likely, those young people woud have become the leaders and officals under the previous system.

[Bruce]

"I only wish all the members on this board could visit Belarus and experience the vibrancy of the populace (not to mention the women!!)"

Racer - thats the greatest argument I have heard from you on why one should support the present government of Belarus.  Belarus is the closest to the FSU - perhaps thats why Belarus women have the "values" that we sought or are looking for in wives.

 

Lets continue to look at the FSU vs the present.  Here's how I see how I believe things were vs they are now, and any additions / clarifications or corrections from people contributing to this thread in the know would be appreciated (Elen, Andrew etc.)  Some things now seem "better" to me and some things are worse depending upon your point of view.   Of course it is clear from reading my lists that I believe that things were better for the average citizen in Soviet times than today.  Never the less, if the Soviet Union continued most of us would never have met our wives - so I wish things would improve in the FSU for humanitarian as well as selfish reasons.

 

FSU                                           Present

Relatively crime free                   Much crime

Lack of graffitti                            Increasing graffitti

Free Education                            Paid education

Professional police                       Increasing police corruption

Lack of gambling                          Alot of gambling

Lack of prostitution                      Rampant prostitution

Disease control                            Increasing AIDs

Lack of drug addicts                      Increasing number of drug addicts

Inclusivity towards minorities       Increasing climate of fear for minorities 

Pensions for retirees                     Difficulty for retirees

Most middle class                          Dwindling middle class

Few rich                                         More rich

Few poor                                        Many poor

More controlled press                     More press freedom

No religion                                       Mostly religious freedom

Children ie. population stability       Lack of children ie. population free fall

Lack of emmigration                          Emmigration

Infrastructure maintenance?            Infrastructure maintenance?

Agriculture?                                       Agriculture ?

Lack of Western products                  Western products

Roads suck?                                        Roads suck

Optimistic?                                           Pessimistic?

 

 

           I do not know how agriculture was in Soviet times, but it does seem there is plenty of food to eat  now.    It seems to me there is alot of new construction now, but there was during Soviet times with a dwindling from the death of Brezhnev on (for the most part).  There also is a lackof maintenance, especially for roads  and older non-historic buildings now, but it may have been that way in Soviet times as well.    The psyche of the population was I believe better in Soviet times for the average citizen, but I am happy to hear differently. 

 

 

[mischief]

Bruce, I don't know where you got this information but statement like: crime free, lack of gambling, prostitution, " inclusivity" towards minority, etc.  is just too funny!  Add to that that people in Soviet Union didn't have sex and it would be it…

Of course I'll come back with more serious arguments later… just couldn't resist commenting now…

[andrewfi]

In relative terms all of Bruce's points are almost certainly valid.

[Albert]

Also, these comments by Bruce about 'free education' are very funny  . . . . along with idea of 'free medicine,' etc. that is claimed for the FSU . . . . and still claimed for Cuba and Canada.

Suppose we in western world were to have our after tax salaries cut to a level of only 5-10% of current levels, and at the same time switch to a system where we paid nothing specifically to go to school or the doctor.

How many of you would then declare that your education and health care were 'free?'

[mischief]

The fact that nobody was talking about social problems in the Soviet Union doesn't mean they didn't exist! 

No crime ….

We can't deny the fact that the crime has increased tremendously on the territory of FSU due to economical and political reasons but claming that there was no crime in the Soviet Union is just ignorance.

Here is the dynamics of crime on the territory of USSR 1920-2000 : http://www.krugosvet.ru/articles/124/1012411/0015246g.htm  

Btw, theft is like genetic disease for russians …

 Lack of drug addicts…

10 000 drug users were officially registered in 1965… since little research was done up to the 80s, real statistic is not available … Central Asia has been the source of maw seeds and hemps since 1920… Since 1957 heroin is the most popular drug used…. Interesting fact that the drug use decreased in 1990- 2000

No prostitutes? Well, I guess all the women who provide "entertainment" for Communist leaders and foreigners were called just Party members…

Though from 1920 up till 90s there was systematic fight with prostitution by repressive methods…

[BillyB]

I believe Belarus is one of the better FSU countries. I believe a lot of people are happy there. I believe more FSU citizens emigrate there than Belarussians are emigrating to other FSU countries. I believe economic growth has been strong under the current leadership. I also know that inflation outpaces growth and the population is declining. There is enough unhappy people to contribute to population decline. Why is the population is declining? Maybe there are more people leaving than coming. Maybe people don't feel economically secure enough to start a family in Belarus. There's a lot of factors involved that can contribute to population decline.

http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/bo.html

I know only one Belarussian woman in the U.S. She said her parents would like to return to Belarus someday to live the rest of their lives but she would never.

[andrewfi]

Mischief, as I noted above, in relative terms, Bruce is correct. That is the point! Criticise him for using an absolute term, one that WAS used by the leaders of the USSR, but that criticism does not invalidate the simple truth of the statement. In these respects, the successors to the USSR are falling backwards. It is certainly also the truth that this is how these issues are perceived by the inhabitants of these countries - and as you know, perception is the most important part of reality!

Billy ~ Belarus is the most 'old fashioned' of the countries of the FSU and yet, it is seen today by many of the 'ordinary' people in the surrounding and sometimes richer countries as being a place of safety and stability. In relative terms they are correct. When a friend sends her daughter to live with her parents in Minsk she is not doing an irrational thing. By doing so she IS removing her from the environment that was casuing the problems here in Estonia, which is, economically, the best performing of the successor republics. There IS more to life than economics and the number of TVs in a home.

Albert ~ If I do not have to worry about finding the money for education then that is easy to perceive as a good thing. If I do not have to pay, at the point of use, for medical care, then that is hard to imagine not being seen as a good thing. Just look at your poor country to understand the truth of those statements. Millions who can not afford medical care and millions more whose education and future prospects are blighted by lack of education. The situation is the USSR could be compared to Denmark, Sweden or perhaps Finland where living standards are high, taxes are high and disposable incomes relatively low. In those countries, health care and education are among the best in the world, paid for from high taxationm providing true equality of opportunity. These were goals that the countries of the FSU shared, indeed originated. What many outsiders jsut do not get is that, for the majority of citizens, life was not at all bad! Indeed, it was pretty damned good. The reason why women sell themselves to guys like you is becasue they lost the hope of having that life in their own country, the reason that these women are now harder to find is that nowadays, the industrious and bright ones can increasingly acheive their goals without having to sell themselves to you guys.

[mischief]

Mischief, as I noted above, in relative terms, Bruce is correct. That is the point! Criticise him for using an absolute term, one that WAS used by the leaders of the USSR, but that criticism does not invalidate the simple truth of the statement. In these respects, the successors to the USSR are falling backwards. It is certainly also the truth that this is how these issues are perceived by the inhabitants of these countries - and as you know, perception is the most important part of reality!

The point is that there are facts you can't deny… with relative terms you can go too far… far from reality…

And the way me and my family perceived these issues is the whole other truth you don't know…


 

[mischief]

BTW, I have a friend who has sent her daughter off to Belarus to go live with her grandparents, the kid loves it there and mum thinks the place is great, a good environment for raising kids and certainly not a terribly low standard of living.

It's certainly not a terribly low standard of living in relative terms... but in reality if you go a little farther away from big cities the standart of living is much lower than you can even imagine!

 

[nzboy]

I dont know whats worse  lukashenka  or freemarket and privatisation of bush and europe .Belarus is getting good economic growth europe is getting negative . I think lukashenkas  conservative policies are probably the best option for Belarus. Minsk would be far safer than any US city .If you have a little money it offers  a better and more laid back life style. Its interesting, Here in NZ our leader governs with only 41% of the vote. So I suspect lukashenka even if there were fair elections would still hold power because there would be such a proliferation of smaller parties The US is hardly a good example of true representitive government when there is very little support for Bushs  war etc And like NZ is maxing the credit card limit  At least the belarusians are living within their means

[Bruno]

I dont know whats worse  lukashenka  or freemarket and privatisation of bush and europe .Belarus is getting good economic growth europe is getting negative . I think lukashenkas  conservative policies are probably the best option for Belarus.

nzboy, economie at the top cannot grow a lot... by example, a economie who run at 99% can only grow 1 % more... but if you have a economie at running at 1%, one more % of growth mean a change of 100%...

Conservative policy try to freeze the evolution... in both way...

For Belarus having good economic, maybe you can take a look at http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/eco_pop_bel_pov_lin ... a % of people living below the povrety level...

For Belgium, my European country, we have 4%

For USA, we have 12%

For Russia, we have 25%

For Belarus, we have 27.1%

For Ukraine, we have 29%

It seem that Russia, who evoluate slowly to the market economie have a better result that Belarus... but both have a better result that Ukaine where Western country have push these market economie motion...

Own intern change give better resultat that artificial intervention... simply allow each country to follow his own evolution...

In the case of Belarus, 27.1% of people below the povrety level is a lot... economic grow is one good side... but when the generate money go to only a few wallet, it is really a bad news for a lot of other citizen...

[BillyB]

Looks like the protests are going to start declining. Story out of the AP.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,188969,00.html

[mischief]

not yet Billy... his communistic happit to suppress opposition is too strong...

http://www.charter97.org/eng/news/2006/03/24/nalet

Protests would decline much sooner but now it's going to be a fuss for another week or so..

[andrewfi]

Mischief ~ there is poverty in Belarus. But given the type of society and economy it is less than you might imagine, even given your visits and your wife's, no doubt, harrowing tales. What the figures quoted by Bruno do not take into account is the non-cash nature of much of society in most countries of the FSU. In general, the poorer the country the more this is so. Poverty figures are, in this case, expressed in terms of cash income only. Even here in relatively well off Estonia, many people still do a whole load of pickling, swapping of work, black work and private farming and husbandry. The suburbs are rife with people who keep rabbits for food (often living on their balconies) In Kiev, people keep cows and pigs on their balconies. Are these signs of poverty? Not really. Each cow, each rabbit, each jar of pickles represents a non-cash transaction that adds to the wealth of the country. In the US, this kind of economy hardly exists and you think it strange and somehow primitive, you shouldn't.

The undoubted reality is that support for Lukashenko is overwhelming. Most people support him and continue to do so. Current evidence from the 'opposition' tells us so. Even with interference, they can muster only a few hundred souls in October Square and one of the two largest opposition leaders told his few followers to go home.

I do not see what you are getting to about relative numbers. Throughout the FSU, crime rates have increased, corruption increased, drug use increased, by a LOT. That the former government chose to keep quiet about these things does not mean that the reality is any different, just that people were, a decade or two ago, less aware of them.

[mischief]

Mischief ~ there is poverty in Belarus. But given the type of society and economy it is less than you might imagine, even given your visits and your wife's, no doubt, harrowing tales.

Once again, I grew up in Belarus, my parents and relatives live there... I got a degree in economics there, every summer I used to work as a volunteer for Christian humanitarian organization and went down to the poorest places on the territory of FSU to bring and distribute foreign aid… so please, don't talk to me about harrowing tales!

[mischief]

I do not see what you are getting to about relative numbers. Throughout the FSU, crime rates have increased, corruption increased, drug use increased, by a LOT.

You were not talking about relative numbers...  there were no numbers mentioned by Bruce but lack of drug addicts, lack of whatever which according to you is correct in "relative terms"...  Do me a favor, read your posts and mine and find who is contradicting himself...

 

[Bruce]

Andrew, it is always great to read your well thought out highly educated posts, especially those relating to economics, economies, the West, the East and of course the present, past and future ecomomies of the FSU.   There always is some room for relative comparison, relative perceptions and psychological realities.   I look forward to reading your perspectives on the future of FSU economics, especially those pertaining to Russia.  

 

[Bruno]

What the figures quoted by Bruno do not take into account is the non-cash nature of much of society in most countries of the FSU. In general, the poorer the country the more this is so. Poverty figures are, in this case, expressed in terms of cash income only.

Andrew, i agree that non-cash economie exist... but really, i don't think that you can pay your electric bill, your home, your car, your insurance, your doctor with pig and cow

In these number, povrety level is evalued by country, in reference of what is needed... further research have show me that Belarus was the country with the best Gini coeficient in the world ( remember previous discussion )... this mean that resource of country are good shared between people... but in this case, it is povrety who is shared...

Yes, the economie have grow from 7.8% last year... but the inflation was 11.5%... this mean that the "buy power" have lower from 3.7%... the real problem is the inflation who is more big that the grow rate...  Other problem is the very big external debt... $4.662 billion ... and what to say about the state budget : revenues $5.903 billion / expenses $6.343 billion...

Sorry but when a country have a inflation highter that the grow rate, have a big debt, spend more money that they create... at long term, it lead to a economical catastrophe... Lukashenko don't care about it... he have certainly big account in some fiscal paradise, ready for a confortable pension in some far foreign country... but what in ten year, when new gouverment will have problem for pay debt, pay pension, pay health security...

Belarus live on credit... it is not a long term solution... and who go pay this later... the citizen...

[nzboy]

In reply to brunos comments I think we need to be pragmatic when it comes to Belarus .The west crys   market economy ,free trade ( while they hold onto tariffs themselves ) democratic government .This so called poverty level is a misonomer in how they come to compare countries .For example in USA its based on income of less then $20,000  When in fact  in many other cases its about access to goods and services .For examle in belarus bread  milk potatoes is at a cost price because government control these Power and telephone are really subsidised by state .In NZ we have gone down the market economy of unrestricted overseas ownership of utilities and lending money .What this has done has made the government very rich But people have to pay very high prices for services .The people of Belaruswould never be able to survive the transition in this day and age. NZ  suffered very much at the time .The resultant effect has been it has made the babyboomers very rich but any one below 35 destitute of any ability of climbing the ladder because of real estate prices and utilities unless they have inheritance .American say similar things about California !   My expertise in Economics is largely angled towards exports and agriculture ,Belarus appears to be doing many things very well But is largely restrained by european tariffs and the Chinese .Many european  companies are in Belarus basically because of cheap labour .When addressing some economic students who were being taught by professers that the  only future for Belarus was foreign investment  I said that this was just western propaganda .What they have to do is be innovative and do something better and more competitive .The old saying to is there is no room for middlemen .They need to market direct to the world .Im  Astrong beleiver in State having an active role in the economy instead of traders and the mafia as is the case in russia . My observation of Minsk is things are happening  although slowly .As for state indebtness Id rather see the state incurring debt than debt being shifted to the masses as in the western world in terms of inflated real estate prices From what ive seen of hospitals in Minsk they are cleaner ( than NZ ) and appear to be delivering a reasonable standard of care for free  .I saw many people coming from outlying areas for cataract operations  And laser eye therepy was being experimented with on a free basis .The girl I visited last year was having it so she didnt have to wear glasses .Ill agree there is a level of poverty there but you could also find this in NZ and USA .Docters are only getting $250 a month so i guess there is no shortage at this price >NZ has an acute docter and nurse shortage but this is the free economy >I as a tax payer subsidise people to train as docter only for them to head  to europe because the pays better ,In this way Im subsidising europe but having to pay through the neck for services here .So I think stability is the best course for Belarus in the present world climate .Most western economies restructered when there was good outlook for growth But with giants like brazil  India and china the world is no longer a big enough fish pond for minnows to swim with the sharks I guess the usa car manufacturors are aware of this So a protective regime in belarus is in my view better for the people than full scale market economy albiet with lukasheka

[Bruno]

Interesting link

http://www.belarusembassy.org/humanitarian/excerpts_from_the_report.htm

[size="2"]     The poverty reduction and inequality performance of Belarus is impressive.      Belarus has already embarked on a number of reforms to support these      objectives, especially in the last 2-3 years and especially in terms of      institutional reforms to its education, health and social protection service      delivery and financing systems, and the reduction in the generalized,      untargeted utility subsidy for households. (p.ix)

[/size][size="2"]     Belarus can be justly proud of the elaborate system of social services it      provides to its population. The ability of households to access quality      education, health and social protection services makes a large difference to      their living standards in the present, and their prospects for the future.      (p.76)

[/size][align=justify][size="2"]     Sustained growth, coupled with a relatively stable income distribution,      succeeded in reducing absolute poverty headcount from 39.4% in 1997 to 18.5%      in 2002. (p.19) [/size][/align]     [align=justify] [/align][size="2"]In      2002 the poverty headcount ratio was 18.5%, witch is less than half of the      1997 level. The dent in other measures of poverty was even greater: extreme      poverty headcount fell from 19% to 7% during the same period. (p.iii) [/size]     [align=justify] [/align]     [align=justify][size="2"]     Compared to other transition economies, Belarus has one of the lowest      poverty rates at the lower regional line of $2.15 per capita per day. At a      higher poverty line, Belarus is in the middle of regional distribution.      (p.iv) [/size][/align]
[size="2"]     The social protection system is almost universal, covering about 4 in 5      persons. Pensions are found to be the most adequate benefit, in part because      of a strong policy of indexing pensions to real wages. Child allowances are      also found to provide adequate protection.

[/size][size="2"]     Real wages more than doubled in the last 7 years.

[/size][size="2"]     Belarus formally launched a multi-pronged reform of its education system in      1996 (completion planned for 2010). The reform impacts schooling duration by      reducing the school entrance age and extending the compulsory educational      cycle. The reform seeks to promote foreign language instruction in general      secondary education, and increased availability of computers in schools. The      reform encourages the establishment of new educational establishments at the      general secondary level, known as lyceums and gymnasiums. (p.39)

[/size][size="2"]     Belarus shows some of the best health indicators in the region and an      extensive coverage of health services, which are mostly subsidized. (p.49)

[/size][size="2"]     Overall health expenditures are progressive, in the sense that the poor      benefit relatively more than the better off (23 and 18%).

Seem that all is not so black...
[/size]

[nzboy]

Quite a good article with maybe a bit of spin .I can testify to the utility subsidy Phone rental about  $3 month, power $5 per month for 7months and $30 for 5 months of winter ( ah that cheap cousy  russian gas siphoned off europe, probably a lukashenka tarrif for passing through Belarus .For the amount I pay for utilities In NZ I could live quite comfortable in Belarus .Im hopefully going to be there for 2 months in june and july at the university ( hopefully I ll get a visa ) only thing is in our market economy our dollar is crashing