Belarus Revolt...Stay Tuned

[tim 360]

Lukashenko,  Europes most repressive and corrupt dictator of Belarus who just elected himself to another term will now have to deal with protests inspired by Ukraine.  This will not be as peaceful as in Ukraine recently.  Expect for this to turn out violent.  And for Lukashenko to come down hard on the protesters. 

[Bruce]

My guess is that there will be limited violence which will be squashed by the military and Lushenko will prevail - but you never know until it happens. 

[philb]

Here's a Lukashenko quote in which he discusses his thoughts in regards to the opposition.  There is a link to the full article beneath it.

"We know where they met, whom they met with and what discussions they had," Lukashenko said during remarks at an auto factory in Zhodino on Friday, according to the Interfax news agency. "God forbid that they should try to perpetrate something in the country. We will twist off their heads as though they are ducklings."

 http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/03/19/news/belarus.php

[RacerX]

Interesting dilemma for the "last dictator of Europe."  On the one hand he desperately needs the legitimacy of an election, but on the other, he needs to orchestrate matters with an iron fist so any puppet opposition doesn't really pull off the upset and bounce him out of office.

In this election charade he really is an amateur.  True democratic elections have a natural life of their own, when you try to manipulate them, the outcome will almost certainly border on the bizarre - like garnering 80% of the "popular" vote while the opposition candidates draw less than 5%.

In fact, the real threat to his rule is that the people, if only for only a brief moment, will taste the illusion of democracy, but whether they will settle for the eventual sourness in their mouth is something he will need to fear.

At the moment he has a Stalin-like grip on the country - but like the "Papa" he wants to emulate, his future days are undoubtedly limited.  How and when a true revolution occurs will be interesting to observe.

[Elen]

Like always you can't admit that people who live THERE may preffer something else than you wish for them living in your West

[Turboguy]

I think you are right in one way Elen.  I think a lot of people who have never experienced anything better don't even realize there is something better.  It could be compared to an American man who has only been around American women and don't know what FSU women are like.

The truth of it is they live in the most repressed country in Europe and they have little hope for their situation changing while the current government is in control.  The world is turning into a better place in a lot of ways and the situation will change there.  It might not be now or this election, but it will change someday.

 

[andrewfi]

Lukashenko has a huge majority support in his country anyway. All other discussions are rendered moot by this simple reality.

It is not hard to understand why Lukashenko (and the majority of Belarusians) choose to maintain the status quo. It is also not hard to understand the motivations of the opposition, such as it is, they have no chance at the prize without stirring up trouble and so, as happened in Ukraine, they wil do their best to stir up the pot. Hopefully Lukashenko will take the requisite action and, unlike Ukraine, the economy will not return to the toilet from whence it has egressed!

At the level of support offered to Lukashenko, if the opposition were actually capable of mustering significant support the popular vote of 88% in favour of Lukahenko would simply not be credible. Not even the polls paid for by the US gave the opposition more than a very small minority of support. So, was there any vote rigging? Probably less than in the US at the last couple of elections - there simply was no need for it. Chances are that there was localised 'support' from politically motivated officials, on all sides, but a Lukashenko organised effort? It makes no sense.

[BC]

Turbo,

Political change must grow in peoples hearts and not from forces outside their borders.  I am sure folks in Belarus are not in a dark hole, totally uninformed of what goes on outside their borders. 

In this age of instant communications they can and do see everything you can.. but maybe they don't like what they see..  - that is exactly why the rest of the world should instead work on improving their international image.

The rest of the world should be more patient and allow changes to evolve in a natural fashion.. and by setting good examples.

[edit]

"You can employ men and hire hands to work for you, but you must win their hearts to have them work with you." - Merle Shain (var. Tiorio)

[size="-1"]"You cannot always prevent people from speaking evil about you, but you can live  so that their stories will be false."--Unknown[/size]

[RacerX]

Lukashenko's base of support lies mainly in the countryside where he has, through an iron fist control of all media: radio/newspapers/TV, managed to paint a negative picture of all things Western, focusing primarily on the US.  In the cities he is despised, and at best, in an uncontrolled election would likely receive no more than 45-50% of the popular vote.

Now by "uncontrolled" I am merely speaking of an election where voter fraud is not the norm: for example when Belarussians voted this time, they received a numbered ballot that was directly linked to their passport ID when they showed up at the polling stations.  Obviously only a fool would vote against the current regime.  Further, under current Belarussian law, at least half of the voters must show up to make the the "election" valid - and since about 80% of the jobs in Minsk are traceable to the government, these people were ordered to vote and told they would be fired if Lukashenko was not victorious. Many voted at rigged polling stations that were set up a week before the actual election (anybody wondered how they could count millions of paper ballots and announce the results the same day?).

Although it's illegal to campaign on election day, State-TV blasted the airwaves with pro-Lukashenko ads - and while it was against the law to disclose any election returns prior to the polls closing, throughout the day the State media gave running totals of his landslide win.

In a  truly free election  process: one where the opposition candidates were not jailed prior to the voting, where they could have access to State censored tv and radio, and one where intimidation of the populace was not present, it is highly unlikely Mr. Lukashenko would have prevailed.  

The current regime has some popular support because it has craftily used the government treasury to create a welfare State.  Compared to Ukrainians, the people of Belarus have it good, the basic problem is that compared to the rest of Europe, including the bordering Baltic countries they do not.  The country is ripe for change, but without meaningful opposition and outside support is will not likely happen until the distant future.

[andrewfi]

RacerX you are missing the very important point.

With a level of support at the 77% level, on a turnout of some 80%, it is entirely obvious that the regime enjoys a huge degree of popular support. If there was significant opposition, with a caucus of popular support then the margin, even if tampered with would be much, much smaller. The time when cheating is a significant issue is when the margin between vitory and defeat is small, as in the US. When it is large, as in Belarus, there is little need to rig the ballot. That said, I concur that the incumbent regime has tended to impose an uneven playing field, but that is, at worst, insurance!

If one is to suggest that the current regime is bad, and does not enjoy popular support then one should, at the same time be able to offer a credible alternative, without such an alternative, one simply appears to be an unthinking buffoon!

At some time in the future, it may be that a credible opposition arises and at that point consideration of the electoral process may be worthwhile, but that oppostion will rise from the grass roots and will not be, as happened in Ukraine, a manufactured force without a real basis of idealogy and support.

Here is a link to a poll conducted prior to the election that makes the situation entirely clear:

http://www.data.minsk.by/belarusnews/032006/256.html

Whilst a large number of respondents thought that the election would be meddled with, the overwhelming majority supported Lukashenko and, correctly they noted that the meddled with results would not alter the outcome. Within the limits of reliability of the poll, the incumbent received a similar level of support in the election as the poll indicated he would.

[RacerX]

Andrewfin ~ your premise is illogical.

If indeed the polls were correct and if all other sources clearly demonstrated that Lukashenko truly had the support of 80 % of the electorate why then, pray tell, would he go to such extraordinary measures such as jailing his opposition, allowing irregular "pre-voting," tracking how each person voted, and in  general intimidating the populace?

All he would have to do is just sit back in his easy chair with a pair of denim jeans on and watch the landslide in the making.  I submit, however, that if you want evidence that your supposition is wrong, Mr. Lukashenko's behavior is "exhibit number 1."

With respect to the alternatives to his authoritarian rule, it would undoubtedly follow that if you allowed democracy to develop, the normal societal course would concurrently follow and the populace would be presented with viable opposition parties with their own ideas as to the future of Belarus.  The current level of suppression and control makes such alternatives impossible without outside help.  BTW, the German government seems to be taking the lead in suggesting that the EU needs to step in and show Mr. Lukashenko the door.

[BC]

Is strange how the 'western' world seems to focus on these small countries..  sorta like picking on who you think you can beat western principles into instead of those that represent real challenge.. like China.  I wonder how their polls turn out and who complains..
 
Iraq, N.Korea, Iran and now Belarus..  Why not try China instead?

Maybe the Iron Curtain wasn't such a bad idea after all.

[mischief]

Lukashenko has a huge majority support in his country anyway. All other discussions are rendered moot by this simple reality.

Agree... 

Not only uneducated people from countryside support Lukashenko but majority of middle-aged educated people in the cities…He has remained popular not only in Belarus but in Russia and Ukraine…  There is an order in the country… in spite of stupid laws and weak economics it's still safe - no mess, no robbery...  people don't want to trade this security to something unknown… They look at Russian, Ukraine and Georgia and they see chaos, crime and instability … Changing a political leader won't make everything right and pretty immediately… It will take years when all pieces come together… Infrastructure you have in the US has been built for centuries… BC is right that political change must grow within… there is no mindset how to do things and how to do them right….

Another thing… as long as Russian President V. Putin continues to support Lukashenko no one would dare to interfere from outside…

 

[BillyB]

The bad news about Lukashenko is that he's Parade magazine's 14th worst dictator. The good news is that he was 12th worst last year so that's an improvement!!! Here's what they say about him:

"Europe's last dictator, Aleksandr Lukashenko was elected Belarus' first president after the break-up of the Soviet Union. Since then he has rewritten the constitution to allow him to appoint all 110 members of the upper house of the legislature, and he has harassed his opponents, sometimes having them arrested on live television. He also has mandated a return to Communist-style "mutual surveillance," encouraging workers to use "trouble telephones" to inform on one another. It is against the law to criticize him."

http://www.parade.com/articles/editions/2006/edition_01-22-2006/Dictators_11_to_20

If Belarussians think like East Ukrainians, then Lukashenko doesn't need to rig elections since he will have majority vote and he doesn't have to worry about revolt. Does that mean Belarus is on the right track?  Belarus has a serious problem with the population leaving the country. I don't know if it's in effect but there was talk about making it hard for women marrying foreigners.

[Elen]

Just look at orange Ukraina and rose Georgia and don't remeber what color Moldova NOW some time after so called democratic revolutions for to get at least and idea what exactly  Belorussia dose not want to have inside their country.

And to your infrom by level of life Belorussia is on one of the top places among former USSR republics

[Bruce]

All I know is what I hear first hand from my wife since I have never been there.  Her father is half Belarussian and half from Arkangelsk.  Occassionally they visit from Russia to the relatives in Belarussia.  They say life is great in Belarussia in comparison with not only the other FSU countries but in most of Russia as well.   The average guy is happy in Belarussia - thats the bottom line.

[RacerX]

The average guy is happy in Belarussia - thats the bottom line.

Well at least those who haven't been murdered, beaten, or imprisoned by their dictator!The people of Belorussia are quite resilient and are some of the most intelligent, resourceful, and interesting of the former SU.  The women are  stunning.It's only a shame they haven't been given their right to a democratic and economic system that would allow them to flourish into what might be one of the most desired countries to live in Europe.

[BC]

Racer,

Ever been there?

[mischief]

The people of Belorussia are quite resilient and are some of the most intelligent, resourceful, and interesting of the former SU. The women are stunning.

I'll take this as a compliment!

[RacerX]

Racer,Ever been there?

Only about four times for several months.My wife has asked, for reasons we wish not to pursue, that I refrain from commenting any further.  Sometimes, reality and fantasy (the Internet) can become intertwined in our lives and it is often best not to mix the two when potential harm may result.I only wish all the members on this board could visit Belarus and experience the vibrancy of the populace (not to mention the women!!)

[Elen]

Well you wife is obviously from those 5% who think another way to ~80% of population

It's only a shame they haven't been given their right to a democratic and economic system that would allow them to flourish into what might be one of the most desired countries to live in Europe.

To my mind it's a shame that you can't see where "dermocratic" color revolutions implyed from abroad leaded countries ( in politic and economic matter)  and what results they have for common people

[Photo Guy]

[size="3"][color="navy"]My friend may  soon be divorced by her husband, which will result in her being sent  back to Belarus. She is horrified by the idea. She has been here for  five years. Her husband has a work visa. She does not want to go back  there, so I guess she has been brain-washed by the West into thinking  conditions are bad in Belorus.[/color]
[/size]

[andrewfi]

PG ~ Many people in the US and Western Europe do not understand how life was for many, if not most in the FSU in Soviet times. Even less do they understand why Lukashenko enjoys HUGE popular support in Belarus.

But it is true that for many life is in many ways better now and that life, in the west, for, in particular, a wife of a middle class guy who does not HAVE to work can be sweet indeed! It is hardly surprising that a person who struggeled to find a route out of her country would not be especially happy to return.

I was reading a short while ago that the much vaunted 'demonstration' in Minsk had raised, on an optimistic count, some 300 people. As long as the west and in particular the US is kept from too much meddling, things will be just fine and for most people a relativley easy life with few responsibilities will continue.

 

[tim 360]

Yes Andrew.  I think the western media may have blown the "revolt" and "protests" way out of reality.  Probably based on info from the protesters.  A few arrests and Lukashenko has things under control.  This is quite a puny revolt. 

A democratic model cannot be forced upon people who do not want it.  "The devil I know is better than the devil I do not know"?  Eh?  Even America's founding fathers were afraid of what a participatory democracy could presage.  And that is in a new country in a New World in the 1780's.

To digress,  but inpoint,  just consider the implications of forcing democracy upon Iraq.  At this point in time it is not the political model for all countries.  We here in America think we are bestowing freedom and the citizens of Iraq see nothing but chaos and terror.

[Leslie]

This comment is spot on Andrew -

"Many people in the US and Western Europe do not understand how life was for many, if not most in the FSU in Soviet times. Even less do they understand why Lukashenko enjoys HUGE popular support in Belarus."

The people of Belarus only have to look at their neighbours in Ukraine to see where following notions of so called pro-western democracy leads :huh:

Reporting in the western press is often farcical. 

 Like portraying Yulia Tymoshenko as a champion of democracy:hairraising: