Belarus Revolt...Stay Tuned

[dfb]

According to the Belarus Democracy Act of 2004, Public Law 108-347, the current governmental body is considered the Last Dictatorship in Europe:

http://www.state.gov/p/eur/rls/prsrl/63297.htm

[Katrin]

I am an estonian and I think Andrew is just some sort of commie!

What  a tragedy really we dont produce pork to russian market any more! And infrastructure is ruined? What kind of? For your lazy russian girlfriends maybe who send their kids to live with babushkas because they want to screw around !

I think that  "relatively well" Estonia dont lose much when you just pack your sutecases and leave to working class paradise Belorussia! You can do your propaganda from there!

I hope people in this board excuse my english, but I am really offended as other people in this board who spent their lives under communist regimes! I want to say to all belorussians here-estonains support you!

ANDREW IS JUST  STRANGER IN OUR COUNTRY!

[pitbull]

If Mischief, or other expat Belarusians want something different, get on a plane, go homeand foment change in your home country. if not, then stay shtum, you have nothing to add to the discussion!
SORRY I AM NOT YET GOOD WITH QUOTING....THE TEXT BELOW IS MINE
Andrew, why don't you go to Belarus and live in this paradise?
People who ARE trying to change smth. in Belarus, or even dare to think differebtly than the official (pro-presidential) discourse makes them think, get in jail, lose their jobs and careers, or...even miraculously disapear!
I just can't keep wondering why people that have nothing to do with Belarus think they know about this country better, than people who actually experienced Belarusian reality or are experiencing it roght now...those who ARE Belarusians..
By the way, the most recent notions of democracy teach us not only take into account the interests of the popular majority, but the minority as well (be those sexual, ethnic or political minorities)...and how this principle is put into practice is considered to be the merit of the civilazation...
Andrew, taking into account about 20% of fasifications (at least) during the election in Belarus, at least 20% and up to 40% of Belarussians are NOT for Lu....:D

[nzboy]

I will agree he is a dictator of sorts  .Ukranian elections give an interesting in sight to the will of the people .Even though there was an orange revolution The previous pro russian party has secured the most votes. In most nations that would give them the right to govern .Democracy is a new thing to fsu countries so even if the election was as even playing field Lukashenko would still gain the most votes .In the west the party that has the largest election budget and promises the most concessions gets in irrelavent whether their policies are realistic and benefit the country .economic reforms in many countries  have  led to high personal indebtness to world bank  and Eu retirement pension funds . New Zealand is absolutely been crippled by foreign in vestment  and meddling in our affairs so we are being bled dry by overseas investors I will a scynic  and say globilisation is only another form of imperialism  Lukashenko wont  play the game of world bank .He is  ment to be part of the axis of evil says Bush ,Because he supplies arms to Iran and  Syria.  America is the worlds largest arms exporter, India is its largest market .You can walk the streets of India where children starve in gutters waiting for owners of $200,000  mercedes to return hoping for a little money .China is not a democracy but you dont see Bush bleating at them .From an economists point of view I dont think belarus could stand  a fast change to market reform without causing severe social disruption with no improvement to insight .The rich european foreign nationals would would suck it dry a thing they have been wanting to do for a while

[Bruno]

Ukranian elections give an interesting in sight to the will of the people .Even though there was an orange revolution The previous pro russian party has secured the most votes. In most nations that would give them the right to govern .

Not here, in the western country named Belgium...

We have a liberal gouverment from the previous election and a socialist senat from the last election... this is not really a problem here... i can say that it is a advantage... now, the liberal gouverment negociate with the senat... they try find solution who are good for EVERYBODY and not only for a part of the population...

In Ukraine, if the pro russian are not able work together with the goverment, they will loose the next presidential... they are obligate to have good result and support of people for the next presidential election... this mean a better collaboration and a benefice for the country...

Pro-Russian cannot deny the positive evolution of Ukraine but they can help correct some problem... with time, the result will the a center-right and a center-left... with extreme who dissappear...  Ukraine will become a social democratie... not very far from the european model ...

Give the time to Belarus and they will follow some similar way that Ukraine... something between communism and capitalism...

[Lysander]

Is Lukashenko a Dictator? My answer is; I don't care. Supposing for a  moment he is. Should it bother me more than say Islam Karimov of  Uzbekistan? Or Augusto Pinochet, former dictator of Chile? Or  Shakashvilli of Georgia?

Belarus is far Closer to a Democracy than any of those examples. People  who dislike Lukashenko said so publicly and without fear when I was  there. Belorussians can leave and reenter as they wish...the only  restriction being the visa requirements of other countries. That alone  is not democracy, but its better than those other places.

Is Lukashenk the kind of guy I would vote for were I Belorussian?  Almost certainly not. I tend to dislike authoritarian father  figures.  But the last thing I would want  is a bunch of  foriegners telling me whom I should vote for and offering their  "support" ....from a distance, and approaching with the logic of "I  dislike your president, therefore you must also dislike him"

Bottom line; Belorussians will have to get rid of him themselves if that's what they want.

Lysander

[tim 360]

JB,  One would have to say he is a dictator.  Although some may say he is a statesman. 

Also,  I think in time the people of Belarus will make their will known.  I think they would like some voice in their country.  But,  for that one must stand up and demand it.  You might recall that Texans had to do that against Santa Anna?  I am confident you know your states history well.  And the original 13 colonies had to do that in 1776.  One takes a risk confronting dictators.

[ronin308]

While I don't think the vote was rigged, it was out and out manipulated.  Of course the same thing goes on in most "free" countries as well just on the scale you can do when you control the media.  I don't think there is evidence of the vote fraud found in the Ukrainian election but I'm sure there was some. 

All things considered, I think even Andrew would feel that it would be better to be both comfortable economically and free "democratically" rather simply comfortable economically.  This type of change will take years and probably will not happen until after Lukashenko is gone. 

Many of the Ukrainians who voted for Yushenko expected change overnight, as if by miracle.  I can remember the "protests" occuring a few months after the election because he "wasn't doing his job"  Like you're able to somehow change the systemic top to bottom corruption of a government overnight.  Of course now they will turn on him.  Add to that the gaz games played so well by Russia right before the elections.  I believe that the Russians should get their fair payment, but the timing is a bit of a coincidence to me.

nzboy, well you obivously haven't looked at the US government structure then.  We can have a President elected from one party and control of our house and senate from a completly different part.  In fact it's quite normal to see this.    Many democratic governments work this way.  It's a simple system of checks and balances.

As to the rest of your sad and tired anti-US retoric, I can say this:

1. While in dollars the US is the top exporter of arms, most of these weapons end up in legitimate governments not ones tied with supplying terrorists.

2.  The situation in India would stay the same even if the US wasn't supplying them with arms, instead the arms would be from the FSU countries, you can't blame the US for the decisions of another government.

[wxman]

I still do not know why Lukashenko had to rig the election. Even EU experts thought he would get 60 to 65% of the vote before all of the protests, but yet he rigged it to get 88%. If he would have left everything all alone and not interferred, he would have won a free an democratic election that the west could not deny. Most dictators are brutal, but very few are smart. Case in point.

[nzboy]

Good post Ronin  Democratic government  needs checks and Balances our NZ government is lead by leftist majority (41% )  garnering support from 3 small conservative parties (14%) This has resulted in a mix that has balance Im Not anti US at all per say .But the americans we get to see in NZ are loud and bolshy and always sucking up to people >Where as our desposition as New Zealanders is more English ,Polite, diplomatic and always looking for a peaceful solution .I found belarusians very much the same as New Zealanders   . The point I would like to make about arms and India is this .Bush has denounced Belarus supplying arms to axis nations But being a free market you sell to whoever will buy. US has just done a deal with India even though they also supply their arch rival pakistan  So the real interest is money rather than security .Yet India could really afford to address the needs of their people .When the tsunami hit India the foreign response was huge but we are told by many people the Indian government did almost nothing to help !!To Bush Belarus is a little pariah state with little economic benefit to him .If axis countries didnt buy off Belarus they would get them off China .Terrorism is another form of warfare  that the West happens to dislike .But conventional war also has human tradgedy .The US has never had to fight a modern war on its own soil where its own civilian population is being mutilated yet is the largest producer of weapons that mutilate civilians . The Belarusian people will decide their own future But western interference in supporting opposition and denouncing dictator ( most Muslim countries are dictatorships ) does little to help the average Belarusian. Countries need to say we are here to help your people and build bridges of friendship Which I beleive the  pursuit of a russian women should be .Just imagine if every Belarusian woman and  foreign husband moved back to Belarus how much an impact that would have .( Im really dreaming ) I like that saying"" Blessed are the peacemakers ""

[andrewfi]

Ronin ~ according to the pre and exit polls conducted by election observers and independent polling orgs the election results pretty closely match expectations. If one were to take a maximal value of the difference between pre election polls and the elecion result, then the amount of rigging might amount to 3.5%. The chances that Lukashenko or his colleagues organised rigging of the election is very slim indeed. But, just as in the US, the chances that supporters of Lukashenko oversaw a degree of localised manipulation is very high. There is a difference and it is important.

But again, you miss the point. There simply is not an opposition. There is nothing for the government to rig! Is this so difficult to comprehend?

Manipulation of election results, as happens nowadays in the US, occurs because there is a credible and strong opposition. It hapens because the margin between success and failure is small. In Belarus, the margin is huge. For the opposition to take control they would have needed to garner 900% more votes than they did. Do you think, when you actually think about it, that this was likely to have happened? Do you think that if the level of fraud was so great that there might have been more than a few hundred protesters and that the two main opposition party leaders might not have sent these few people home?

What is happening here is that you are being manipulated. You are being denied the opportunity for thought, or when given it, you choose not to take it. If you, and many others actualy gave this some thought, you would not be writing as you do.

[mischief]

Your biggest mistake, Andrew, is your attempts to rationalize the action of Belarusian government… If you knew anything about the nature of the Slavic people you would understand that some things including their behavior is beyond logical explanation sometimes…. This is the way things are and this fact should be taken into consideration.

[catzenmouse]

methinks Andrew would make a fine dictator....

[ronin308]

Andrew, what point?   I was agreeing with you that there probably was not a wholesale manipulation of the election by fraud but instead by control and use of the media, it's the same claim many people make about western elections.  I also agree that there was not an effective opposition in this election.

However what I do feel is that without access to things like TV and the press there is no effective way for the opposition to spread it's message.  It's like a chicken and egg thing, without being able to spread it's message it will take a lot longer for a change in government to be effected, if indeed a change is what the people want.  It's impossible to tell what the people want though if they are only subjected to 1 message though.

I was in Ukraine for the week leading up to the Supreme court decision and found a good number of the Orange Revolution protestors were not from Kiev.  This became more and more true as things like the square in front of St. Sophia's was turned into a parking lot for the buses from the folks from outside the locale.

How was the original Orange Revolution message spread as well as the call to action?  By TV and the press of course as well as the internet.  It's hard to go support a protest when you don't know one is going on.

nzboy I agree with your descriptions of many of my countymen,  not all are like that but quite a few are.  What I don't understand is why you are blaming the US for problems created by the Indian government.  Even if the US refused to sell arms to them there are plenty of countries including Belarus that would.  You then try and use this very argument to support allowing Belarus to sell arms to Iran and Syria.

As to the claim that the US is the largest producer of weapons that mutilate civilians, dude where have you been?  Look at pictures of the conflicts in Africa and tell me whether you see US small arms or FSU and european small arms in their hands.  Read of the land mines left by those conflicts and tell me where the mines came from (not the US). Do the same for Afghanistan, where kids still routinely lose body parts to mines placed by the Soviet invaders (Ok so they didn't sell those but actively placed them).  Or discover what the prefered weapon is of Nigerian and other bandits.

 

[nzboy]

Been  updating my self on a few statistics which have confirmed my point ""That its a little rich by Bush  to condemn Belarus of illegal arms  trade and or trade with axis of evil countries .USA is responsible for the export of 60% of all arms EU 25 %  .The Problem with this is the illegal trading of arms by the recipient countries .Eg disposing of surplus equipment to bad neighbours in order to finance newer stuff ( India being a culprit and being USA largest market ) In 90% of all conflicts USA made equipment is being used ( bit misleading when you think about it but interesting ) There supposably a greater than 50% chance of American forces being confronted with USA equipment ( albeit  dated ) eg  Iraq ,Afghanistan plus a few more USA exports $160,000 million per year following by UK  France And Germany at around 40,Billion USA  military budget plus arms and other military export maybe in the vicinity of 1,600,000 milliion Thats $5000us for every person in the states That a Whopping big part of the economy .Belarus says it produces $250 million Although some say its more like 500 million Because much of it is exported to russia as componentry and wait for it exported to US as well as many EU countries for their production .So thats $50 for every person in Belarus .The US says it has banned exporting Antipersonal mines but has a huge stockpile it is unwilling to get rid of .But it sells and exports anti vechile mines which I guess do a pretty good Job on the people inside any moving thing .They are now wanting to develop personal  mines that destuct after a given lifetime !IT would be great if all the toys stayed in the hands of the good guys but money is involved so quite a few leak into the wrong hands !When G8 had their meeting illegal arms trade is always discussed But its their own arms being traded thats  the concern not necessarily rogue states .Russia had been hoping to get some business from india But Bush did a historical deal and put the Kibosh on that So Im not sure where Putin can export his 4.8 billion of arms .He is hoping china But india is pushing him from there with american help most probably .So its really sorded reading So I see Bushs rhetoric not going down to well with lukashenka .So India would probably be able to look after its people if it didnt spend $20billion on toys

[ronin308]

nz boy, while I would like to answer, this discussion has drifted off topic and really shouldn't go further under the forum rules.