EU - Ukraine Protests

[Brillynt]

The last week has seen a lot of protests in Kyiv about the governments rejection of the EU trade agreements. I was talking with my wife about this today, and she was reading posts online from Russian citizens about how Ukraine should be invaded and all the people in Lugansk and the surrounding area killed.  Needless to say this was making her very upset.

I have been reading the information coming out of Kyiv with interest as I had hoped that Ukraine would move towards the EU.

The government seems to be in disarray based on the news reports with a possible vote of no confidence tomorrow in the Parliament. It should be interesting to see what happens from all this.

Here are some links to the stories in the Kyiv Post.

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/politics/parliament-committee-gives-thumbs-up-to-government-resignation-332832.html

http://www.kyivpost.com/hot/euromaidan/

http://www.kyivpost.com/hot/eu-ukraine-relations/


I am curious what Mendy's view on this is from Moscow.

[Muzh]

Just a quick question.
 
Have you asked your wife why she believes Russia should invade Ukraine and kille all the people in Lugansk and surrounding area?
 
I'd be very interested in her opinion.

[Brillynt]

She was just reading comments from posters online. This is not her opinion, but the opinion of many angry posters.

[Chelseaboy]

Muzh,
 
          I suggest you read the opening post again.
 
Where does Brillynt say it's his wife who believes Russia should invade Ukraine and kill all the people in Lugansk and surrounding areas ?
 
It's Russian citizens online saying that..not her.

[mendeleyev]

I'm torn. I'll share my thoughts as found in the Mendeleyev Journal:

This is a decision for the Ukrainian people and as I find them a wonderful people in a beautiful land, my heart breaks for all they've been through and the challenges they've faced, not just today or even the Soviet period, but for generations. Life has not always been kind for those living in Ukraine.

Historically it makes sense for Ukraine to have strong ties with Russia, but right now this is not just Russia, but Putin's Russia.

For the future we must realize that the EU has no interest in folding in Ukraine and all her debt, tainted government and culture of corruption. The EU has their own financial problems and they just don't need another Bulgaria on the dole.

However a trade agreement with the EU is really what they're talking about, not EU membership anytime soon. Ukraine needs this and one might expect Yanukonvict to try to wiggle a way to keep those doors open without totally pissing off Moscow. Putin however is much smarter than Viktor. The EU needs this Eastern presence to check/balance Russian influence, but the folks from Brussels wanted Ukraine to join civilized countries and so things like paying back their loans and release of political prisoners were on the agenda.

Some might make futile attempts to argue that the blonde in prison isn't a political prisoner but sorry, I don't see lines of Yanukonvict's corrupt pals in jail and selective justice squarely meets the definition of political imprisonment. Like Ivan the Terrible who had prison cells directly under his bed chambers so that he could descend at night to observe their misery before retiring, the Russian deal allows Yanukonvict to keep his toys right where they are. Vlad and Yulia were partners in deal making but Mr. Putin is a very pragmatic personality and if throwing someone under the bus is necessary to accomplish a larger goal, then he won't hesitate to follow the Stalinist idiom, "You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs."

The fact is that the CIS Customs Union will always be dominated by Russia and Russia will eat first; women and children (the other partners) can come to the table after Russia is satiated. This is largely driven by:

1- Pipelines and control of the stuff that runs through them
2- The drive to return to some form of reinventing the Soviet state
3- Development of a energy currency alternative to the Dollar

The Customs Union is set up so that Moscow will have ultimate oversight regarding the common defense, borders and policing of each country. There are reasons for that and it boils down to control. Ukraine needs to think really hard about this, otherwise they will have decades more of domination from outside forces. But again, it is their decision.

Right now you can see lots of Ukrainian protest posters which read that Ukrainians want Europe over Asia. We Westerners don't always get that subtle difference but Ukrainian locals do. Russia covers 51% of the Asian continent and just because the two Russia capitals happen to be in Europe, a Europe they hold as suspicious if not outright hostile, doesn't give much comfort to Ukraine which is more truly European.

The makeup of the Customs Union will be largely Asian in perspective, as to how they view and relate to the world, etc. If you look at Russia's development plans, they're largely Asian. They control much of Asia's energy sources and developing the Far East and common economic projects with China and both Korea's trump anything Russia has planned for the 49% of Europe she possesses. Which by the way is one reason Russia needs Ukraine--extending that 49% gives added influence over European neighbors.

The fact is that Russia needs Ukraine more than Ukraine needs Russia but Yanukonvict is just a dumb thug; blinded by the chances to personally gain from a deal with Russia, he doesn't understand the value of the cards he holds.

Were it me, I'd be worried about how long the marriage to Moscow would last. Who will fill the void once Putin leaves the stage? Will a personality like Lukashenko or Nazarbayev  step in, or will Russia, and thereby the Customs Union, someday experience true liberty? These are things that those protesting have on their minds.

[Brillynt]

So here is the link to the comments (in Russian of course).  Currently there is more than 140 pages of comments.

http://news.mail.ru/inworld/ukraina/global/112/politics/15899381/comments/

Buried in there are the nasty comments.

[mendeleyev]

Quotes yesterday from Yanukovich:

"When we are saying that we are building a democratic state, a democratic society, it is important for all the members of this society to observe the laws. It doesn't matter whether they are government representatives, law enforcement officers or participants of these rallies. Everyone must observe the laws of our state."

He might pass the word to his police forces if those words are to have any meaning.

To his credit he then left open the door for some form of reconciliation which also shows his concern over the impact of the protests:

"I am convinced that the worst peace is better than the best war."

From Tuesday thru Friday he will be out of the country on a state visit to China. The China agenda is in regards to Ukraine's involvement with joint projects as an extension of several Asian investment projects spearheaded by Russia and China.

After leaving China he will travel to Moscow--a new schedule development.

[mendeleyev]

In the Kyiv Post:

Prime Minister Mykola Azarov admitted on Dec. 2 that his government was helpless to handle mass protests in the streets of Kyiv that have lasted for more than a week, and said they looked like a coup.

At the same time, President Vitkor Yanukovych reached out to Europe for a new deal after failing to sign an agreement last week. The government's failure caused outrage and mass protests across the country. “The mass character of protests has grown to be unmanageable, or rather manageable by certain political forces,” Azarov said at a meeting with U.S. and EU ambassadors.

Read the entire article here: http://www.kyivpost.com/content/politics/government-admits-helplessness-asks-for-a-new-deal-with-europe-332858.html

Mendeleyev footnote: For some time I've suspected that for former president Kuchuma's hatchet man and current Prime Minister of Ukraine, Mykola Azarov, may possibly be more in control of the country than President Yanukovich. It was Azarov who went to Russia for the latest CIS Summit in Saint Petersburg and it was Azarov who first announced, while Yanukovich was headed to Austria, that Ukraine would not sign the deal with the EU.

[jone]

It always gets me, the double standard that politicians expect for everyone else, but not for themselves.

Yanukovich spends 18 months in jail out of a three year sentence for Burglary and Assault in his youth.  He is then sentenced to another 24 months in jail for Assault, which he is forced to serve out.  And here he is chiding the country for lawlessness.

[Muzh]

So here is the link to the comments (in Russian of course).  Currently there is more than 140 pages of comments.

http://news.mail.ru/inworld/ukraina/global/112/politics/15899381/comments/

Buried in there are the nasty comments.

My apologies, I misread your post.
 
Still, I know some of my wife's former co-workers who would have no problem saying this. And they are not uneducated people.
 
Anyway, here is a Facebook page from the 'movement.'
 
http://www.facebook.com/Euromaidannews?notif_t=fbpage_fan_invite

[jone]

It is really interesting to see the sweep of social media picking up on the protests.  Many of the contributors did not have FB pages a month ago.  Aside from the normal media outlets, someone smart enough figured out that FB pages will reach more people quickly and result in groundswell support. 

I have been blogged and FB messaged by practically every friend I have in Ukraine regarding the movement.

[Muzh]

Quotes yesterday from Yanukovich:

"When we are saying that we are building a democratic state, a democratic society, it is important for all the members of this society to observe the laws. It doesn't matter whether they are government representatives, law enforcement officers or participants of these rallies. Everyone must observe the laws of our state."

LMAO, that is precious. Is he going to return all of his stolen 'property' back to the country?

 

He might pass the word to his police forces if those words are to have any meaning.
 

Rumor has it that the orders are 'shoot to kill.' Just like in 2004. Luckly, the country still had Kuchma as President.

To his credit he then left open the door for some form of reconciliation which also shows his concern over the impact of the protests:

"I am convinced that the worst peace is better than the best war."

Not so sure, after all he cannot stand the impact of an egg. He faints.
 

From Tuesday thru Friday he will be out of the country on a state visit to China. The China agenda is in regards to Ukraine's involvement with joint projects as an extension of several Asian investment projects spearheaded by Russia and China.
 

Lyudmyla, pack lightly and let's get the hell outta here.

After leaving China he will travel to Moscow--a new schedule development.

Oh, Vladimir Vladimirovich can you send in the tanks?

[Gylden]

you mean this?

[Muzh]

Ah yes, the infamous Kryptonite egg.

[Gylden]

when he isn't busy being attacked by the trees.

[Muzh]

Them no trees. Them are nasty Ents.

[Gylden]

Julia can take a hit though.

[Boethius]

It always gets me, the double standard that politicians expect for everyone else, but not for themselves.

Yanukovich spends 18 months in jail out of a three year sentence for Burglary and Assault in his youth.  He is then sentenced to another 24 months in jail for Assault, which he is forced to serve out.  And here he is chiding the country for lawlessness.

I have posted this before but it bears repeating.  Do not assume Yanukovich was a common criminal.  In the USSR, criminals did not get nominated to the communist party.  Note - one could not just join the communist party, one had to be nominated, with a full character background check, including your family background.  This is something that those who were devoted dogs to the former system never wish to admit when interacting with foreigners - who they were, and what they did to get there.  Plus, he was given permission to travel abroad, which was not given to anyone with any criminal past.

I am positive, based on his later positions in the USSR, that Yanukovich was a member of the MVD, which was part of the KGB.  It was very common for the party to infiltrate various criminal groups.  That was his role in his "arrests".  What would be more interesting would be to determine the fates of those arrested with him.  I can guarantee, not one of them ended up in the CPSU, and certainly not at the level of Yanukovich. 

Every single one of the presidents of Ukraine have been devoted commies before the collapse, all part of the nomenklatura.  Only Kuchma didn't downplay his previous role after the collapse.

[jone]

Knowing him, he might have made a deal after the incarcerations.  The second time he went to prison, there was no leniency.  He served his full required sentence.  I am not in a position to evaluate further as I have no direct friends in the old Soviet hierarchy of Donetsk.  But it would be logical that he had MVD ties in his rise to power.  That was an established norm for a quick rise in the political spectrum.

[Boethius]

You could not make a deal to join the CPSU, and certainly, no real criminal would have reached the illustrious heights Yanukovich did.

This was not directed out of Donetsk, but out of Moscow.

Undercover officers routinely served full sentences.  If that officer made even one mistake in the criminal slang, he was done.  His body would never be found.  It was common for police officers to serve two or three years in prison and then write PhD's on the criminal element.  After the collapse, these two sides merged.

[Boethius]

When I think about this, Yanukovych's Russian sycophancy makes sense.  All Yanukovych's records are under seal in Moscow.  Many of the arch criminals he would have dealt with are now "respectable businessmen" in $6000 suits, manipulating millions of dollars.  His life likely would be cut short were that information released.

[cc3]

Mendeleyev footnote: For some time I've suspected that for former president Kuchuma's hatchet man and current Prime Minister of Ukraine, Mykola Azarov, may possibly be more in control of the country than President Yanukovich. It was Azarov who went to Russia for the latest CIS Summit in Saint Petersburg and it was Azarov who first announced, while Yanukovich was headed to Austria, that Ukraine would not sign the deal with the EU.

Is it true that the PM of Ukraine, Azarov, cannot speak the national language, Ukrainian?

[jone]

I don't necessarily buy into the idea that at 16, Yanukovich was already an enlisted member of the MVD.  This is the age that he was first arrested.  And rather than have the kid in and out, he was convicted again as soon as he was released from prison from the first incident.    Unless Bo has some level of proof, other than conjecture, I would stick with my earlier assessment that it is possible he was recruited later, if recruited at all.  Of course, this is my opinion.  But given the facts, and no evidence, it seems stronger than any other.

My assessment is that he was a hell raiser as a kid.  It corresponds with being brought up in a myriad of homes and raised by his paternal grandmother with a dead mother and absentee father.

[Boethius]

Is it true that the PM of Ukraine, Azarov, cannot speak the national language, Ukrainian?

I have never heard him speak Ukrainian, and he is not from Ukraine, nor is he ethnically Ukrainian.

Tymoshenko has no Ukrainian blood either, and her natural language is Russian.  Her Ukrainian is not completely fluent.  Many of her pronunciations are Russian.  Two that come to mind are her lapses to the "a" pronunciation of unaccented "o"s, which is common in most (but not all) of Russia, but absolutely does not exist in the Ukrainian language.  Another is her "що", pronunciation, which is pure Russian.

Yanukovych is Belarussian.  His Ukrainian is not fully fluent either. I have not heard many spontaneous speeches, but of those I have, he has spoken surzhik, not Ukrainian.


Kuchma and Yushchenko are both ethnic Ukrainians. Kuchma did not speak Ukrainian well, or perhaps chose not to after years in Moscow, as I believe his native language is Ukrainian, and Yushchenko spoke Russian when not before a camera.

I don't necessarily buy into the idea that at 16, Yanukovich was already an enlisted member of the MVD.  This is the age that he was first arrested.  And rather than have the kid in and out, he was convicted again as soon as he was released from prison from the first incident.    Unless Bo has some level of proof, other than conjecture, I would stick with my earlier assessment that it is possible he was recruited later, if recruited at all.  Of course, this is my opinion.  But given the facts, and no evidence, it seems stronger than any other.

My assessment is that he was a hell raiser as a kid.  It corresponds with being brought up in a myriad of homes and raised by his paternal grandmother with a dead mother and absentee father.

When do most career criminals get their start?

In the USSR, children started informing on each other around the third grade.  By their teens, if they were Komsomol leaders, their career paths were usually determined.  Certainly that would be the case by 16, and most kids graduated at 17. 

Before age 16, males in the USSR were sent their "draft" papers for their first military commission from what translates to, roughly, a "military civil commission".  This group, usually party officials from the district and retired colonels, determined in which service branch boys would serve.  At 16, boys went for their first physical for their military service.  After their physical, they would go to a big gym in their underwear, and were told by the commission, composed of 3 officers, what branch they would serve in on graduation from high school.  At age 17, before their service, their military tickets were given to them.  Once in the service, a boy's internal passport would be taken from him, and his military ticket would be used as his primary identification, until he was discharged from the army.  On discharge, the military branch in which the boy served would retain his military ticket, and return his internal passport to him.

Through Komsomol, those that joined the MVD knew they would join at age 16.  Most of my better half's classmates, for example, were active Komsomol members  and all ended up in the internal service.  Putin also was already helping the KGB as a Komsomol member when he was in high school.

In Soviet times, those that served in the internal service would never divulge it, unless they were told to do so.  If one had a brain, one could, however, figure out this was the case, if the classmates were not in the army or the navy.  It was very prestigious to be in the KGB during Soviet times, and those that were chosen were proud and viewed it as a high honour.  I think for deep agents, the secrecy of their service continues to today.

[mendeleyev]

Like jone, I believe him to be a criminal. Security officers did not always finish sentences, sometimes they were conveniently moved around the prison circuit a couple of times and then reassigned.